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图源/东方IC
Source/OrientalIC
30秒快读
30 seconds to read.
1、推风口的人喊话马斯克将千亿美元All IN比特币，手中仍持币的人开始疑惑，留着会不会再被割一波韭菜，在这个风口背后，挖矿越来越难，矿工被折腾得“死去活来”。
1. Those who push the wind have shouted that Musk will have hundreds of billions of dollars of All Inbitcoin, and those who still hold the coins are starting to wonder that they will not be cut again by a wave of groceries, behind which it is becoming increasingly difficult to dig, and that the miners will be “dead and alive”.
2、当比特币以总市值5000亿美元，一举超过美国强生、Visa和沃尔玛等巨头市值，徘徊在全球十大资产边缘时，围城中的人不知道，到底比特币会最终实现“一币一别墅”的梦想，还是一场又将再次破灭的“郁金香泡沫”。
At a time when Bitcoin, with a total market value of $500 billion, is hovering on the edge of the world's 10 largest assets in excess of such giants as Johnson-Johnson, Visa and Wal-Mart, people around the city do not know whether Bitcoin will finally realize the dream of a “one-dollar villa” or whether it will be a “Tulip bubble” that will be broken again.
12月16日，比特币价格站上2万美元。这一刻，韩青（化名）等了3年。
On December 16, the Bitcoin price went up to $20,000. On this occasion, Han Qing waited three years.
2017年底，仍是大学生的他拿出所有的5000元入场，等待币价在1.98万美元新高后再创辉煌。涨势熄火，转头相继跌破1.5万美元、1万美元等多个关口，韩青开始煎熬。该不该割肉，要不要补仓？此后币价也回升过，但投资者仍在纠结是否回光返照，比特币的下一站在哪里？
At the end of 2017, he was still a college student who took out all 5,000 yuan, waiting for the currency to rise at a new high of $19.8 million, before he was brilliant. When the fire went off, he fell back and forth at various points such as $15,000 and $10,000, HAN began to suffer. Should he cut the meat? Do you want to replenish the warehouse?
如今，面对比特币行情，韩青变得“佛系”。不纠结，不难过，币安稳躺着，有时一周都不会看一眼。12月20日，比特币再度刷新历史高位至24298美元。几小时后，韩青还是从朋友圈得知了这一消息。
Today, in the face of bitcoin, HAN Qing became a Buddhist system. In spite of all this, the currency lay secure, sometimes for a week. On December 20, Bitcoin recreated its history to $24298. A few hours later, HAN Qing learned the news from his friends.
就在12月27日，比特币一度攀升至28360美元，再创记录。
On December 27, Bitcoin climbed to $28360, a record.
或许是被伤过心，早期炒币者开始麻木和沉默。“破新高了，没人说话？”一个几十人的炒币微信群中，有网友问道。互动不过两三人。略显悲观的他们商讨更多的是个沉重的话题：“一旦（机构）抛售，就是血雨腥风。”
Maybe it's broken hearts, and the early cobblers became numb and silent. "Breaking high, no one talks?" A dozen people in a mound of coins have online friends asking. There's only two or three people who interacted. The more pessimistic they talked about, it's a heavy topic: "As soon as it's sold, it's the wind of blood."
中国政府并不鼓励炒币，而在国外交易所获取的利益不受法规保护。另一方面为了监管潜在不法资金，在交易所炒币还可能遇到资金冻结，无法转回支付宝、银行卡等情况。
The Chinese government does not encourage currency speculation, and the benefits gained by foreign exchanges are not protected by the law. On the other hand, in order to regulate potential illicit funds, there may be a freezing of funds on the exchange that cannot be transferred back to payment of treasures, bank cards, etc.
奔跑的币价背后有一群逐利的矿工在追赶。今年5月份，比特币区块奖励减半，此后挖矿难度更高。电脑显卡早已无法胜任“挖矿”重任。浙江某区块链公司CEO李泉（化名）告诉《IT时报》记者，现在矿业已专业化，要“挖”比特币必须用专业矿机。
In May this year, the Bitcoin block prize was halved, and mining was even more difficult. Computer cards were no longer enough to be “mining” – the company CEO Lee Quan, a chain company in one of Zhejiang’s districts, told the IT Times journalists that the mining industry was now specialized, and that it had to use a specialized miner to “digger” Bitcoin.
当比特币以总市值5000亿美元，一举超过美国强生、Visa和沃尔玛等巨头市值，徘徊在全球十大资产边缘时，在一些人眼中呈现的是一座涂着金色梦想的城堡，只是围城中的人有焦虑、有迷茫，他们不知道，到底比特币会最终实现“一币一别墅”的梦想，还是一场又将再次破灭的“郁金香泡沫”。
When Bitcoin, with a total market value of $500 billion, overtakes the market value of giants such as Johnson-Johnson, Visa and Wal-Mart and hovers on the edge of the world's 10 largest assets, in the eyes of some, is a castle covered with golden dreams, but with anxiety and confusion in the surrounding city, they wonder whether Bitcoin will finally realize the dream of a “one dollar per house” or whether it will be a tulip bubble that will be broken again .
01
推风口的人
The one who pushes the wind.
喊话马斯克：千亿美元All IN比特币
Shouting Mask: Hundreds of billions of dollars All Inbitcoin
拥护者眼中，比特币是一种比黄金更好的价值储存方式。华尔街投行杰弗瑞集团的全球策略主管Chris Wood曾表示，未来几年将逐渐降低黄金投资5个百分点用于投资比特币。如果比特币价格在突破2万美元后出现大跌，他们将做多比特币。
In the eyes of the proponents, bitcoin is a better way to store value than gold. Chris Wood, the global strategy manager of the Jeffrey Group on Wall Street, said that in the coming years, five percentage points of gold investment would be gradually reduced to investment in bitcoins.
12月23日，纳斯达克上市公司微策投资（MSTR）创始人兼CEO Micheal Saylor（迈克尔·塞勒）晒图称，近12个月黄金的投资回报率为-60%，而比特币数据为217.1%。
On 23 December, the founder and CEO Michael Saylor (Michael Seller), of NASDAQ's listed company Micro-Treat Investment (MSTR), stated that the return on gold investment for the last 12 months was -60 per cent, compared to the Bitcoin figure of 2171 per cent.
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图源/推特
Source/Twitter
投资比特币，塞勒堪称激进。根据12月12日公告，微策投资已完成6.5亿美元可转债发行，该债券的净收益正是用于投资比特币。
The investment in bitcoin, Selecan, was radical. According to the December 12 announcement, micro-investments had already been released at $650 million, and the net return on the bond had been invested in bitcoin.
财报显示，今年第三季度微策投资以总计4.25亿美元购入38250枚比特币，平均购买价格为11111美元。截至12月28日11时，比特币报2.7万美元。如果不计手续费，这笔投资净赚一倍多。
The financial statements show that in the third quarter of this year micro-investments totalling $425 million were purchased in 38,250 bitcoins, with an average purchase price of $11111. At 11 a.m. on 28 December, Bitcoins reported $27 million.
塞勒还有更大的野望。12月20日，塞勒在推特上给特斯拉CEO马斯克一个疯狂的建议：把特斯拉的资产负债从美元转化为比特币。“届时其他标普500的大公司都会效仿，（这1000亿美元）会涨至1兆美元。”
On December 20th, Sylar offered Tesla CEOmask a crazy suggestion:
马斯克仍在疑惑如此大笔交易的可行性，但塞勒早已给出Yes的答案。塞勒表示，今年11月份他已经花了13亿美元购入比特币，可以线下传授马斯克玩法心得。马斯克没有回复。
Mask is still wondering about the feasibility of such a large deal, but Sylar has already given Yes the answer. Shearer said that he had spent $1.3 billion on bitcoin in November this year to teach Mask how to play. Mask did not reply.
作为既得利益者，比特币投资者自然希望更多资金流入，更多玩家入场，不断推高币价，令他们高位套现，赚得盆满钵满。
As vested interests, Bitcoin investors naturally want more money to flow, more players to come in and keep pushing up the price, making them rich and profitable.
塞勒的疯狂建议正和刺激比特币币价有关。目前比特币的获取方式主要有挖矿和交易，后者价格波动更大。比特币总量恒定为2100万枚，目前只剩不到250万枚比特币未被挖出。如果马斯克不想被“中间商”赚差价，通过挖矿玩比特币，可行吗？答案是否定的。
Sylar's crazy advice is related to stimulating bitcoin prices. Bitcoins are now obtained mainly by mining and trading, which is more volatile. Bitcoins are set at 21 million, leaving less than 2.5 million bitcoins undiscovered.
《IT时报》记者算了一笔账。以目前最高价2.8万美元算，替换1000亿美元至少需要352.61万枚比特币。这意味着为了填补100多万枚比特币缺口，马斯克需要通过交易所获得，变成高币价的接盘侠。
At the current maximum price of $280,000, the replacement of $100 billion would require at least 352.21 million bitcoins. This means that in order to fill more than a million bitcoins, Musk needs to get through the exchange and become a high-value handler.
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图源/包图网
Figure Source/Backshot Network
如果以收购挖矿250万枚比特币算，那么替换1000亿美元意味着每枚币价至少为4万美元。塞勒又能坐收渔翁之利，手上的币价几乎又能翻了一番。
If the sum of two and a half million bits of mining is bought, then replacing $100 billion would mean at least $40,000 per penny. Sylar would be able to take advantage of the fishery and almost double the price in his hand.
多位网友留言劝阻马斯克。“1000亿美元变1兆美元？这不是货币，这是传销！”一位网友称。击鼓传花，推高价格，找下一个“傻子”，无论是郁金香还是P2P，似乎套路颇为熟悉。
Many comments discouraged Mask. “100 billion dollars to $1 trillion? It's not money, it's distribution!” According to a friend of the Internet. Beating flowers, pushing prices, looking for the next one, whether tulips or P2P, seems familiar.
这场对数字货币的讨论最终以马斯克一句“比特币快和法币一样胡扯”告终。
This discussion of digital currency ended with the words “bitcoin is fast as French” in Musk.
02
炒风口的人
The one with the blowjobs.
调动情绪的配方，割新韭菜？
An emotional formula, cutting a new pickle?
新的投资者开始涌入这个风口。
New investors have started pouring into the wind.
12月21日晚间，币安发声明称，平台要进行临时维护，期间将暂停充值、提现、现货及杠杆交易等，在恢复交易前，会预留30分钟给用户进行撤单、充值、提现、资金划转。
On the evening of 21 December, a currency release statement stated that the platform would be temporarily maintained during which the replenishment, withdrawal, spot and leverage transactions would be suspended, and that 30 minutes would be reserved for the user to withdraw the bill, charge, cash withdrawal and transfer of funds prior to the resumption of the transaction.
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图源/网络
Figure Source/Network
如今回想，韩青还有一丝侥幸。此次404长达十多分钟，错过币价实时波动，难免有投资者无法得到预想的利益。
In retrospect, HAN Qing is still lucky. This time, 404 has been missing real-time currency fluctuations for more than 10 minutes, and it is inevitable that investors will not be able to reap the benefits envisaged.
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币安临时维护导致许多用户错过出售机会 图源/推特
The ad hoc maintenance of the currency has led many users to miss their sales opportunities.
这不是币安近期第一次出现故障。12月16日，正是比特币突破2万美元大关之际，币安、火币等多家交易所出现卡顿或宕机情况。为此，币安CEO赵长鹏在社交媒体声明称，比特币上涨5%，交易所流量翻了30倍。
On December 16, when Bitcoin crossed the 20,000-dollar threshold, several exchanges, such as currency and coins, experienced Cataton or crashes. To that end, the CEO’s Chang Peng declared in social media that Bitcoin had increased by 5% and the exchange had increased by 30 times.
暴涨的币价和流量，对应着一群对金钱充满渴望的玩家。“和3年前草寇庄相比，华尔街机构更猛”。一位资深比特币玩家认为，无论是推高币价的风格和牛市的持续度，似乎意味着比特币走牛，也可能还有一波更疯狂的收割。
High currency prices and flows correspond to a group of craved players in money. "Wall Street institutions are stronger than grasshoppers three years ago." According to a senior bitcoin player, whether it's the style of pushing up the price or the sustainability of the cattle market, it seems to mean that bitcoins are gone, or that there may be a more insane harvest.
韩青自嘲是一名“资深韭菜”。和比特币新玩家一样，匆匆进场，高位入局。甚至偶然间看到炒币群中的话术，他感到似曾相识。
Han Qing mocks himself as a "senior pickle." Like the new player in Bitcoin, he rushes into the field and takes a high position. He even happens to know each other by chance when he sees the words in the troupe.
由于缺乏经验，很多新手看到币价起伏容易一惊一乍，需要一个专业人士来解答。“但群里很多自称为布道者的投资者通过调动新人们的情绪，为庄家、机构套利做反向引导。”韩青表示。
Due to a lack of experience, many newcomers see currency price fluctuations as easy and require a professional to answer. “But many investors in the group who claim to be preachers use the emotions of newcomers to steer the estates and institutions in the opposite direction.” Qing said.
即使币价仍在高位，做多派鼓吹着未来不是梦，提升币价，为出仓做准备。而在多个炒币群中，《IT时报》记者发现“做空派”都在转发一张比特币“春难”的图片。图片显示，从2014年起到2019年，春节前24天比特币价格都会崩盘，跌幅从15%-63.96%不等。但文字表述颇为含糊，并未指明崩盘是累计跌幅、当天跌幅还是期间最大跌幅。
Even though currency prices are still high, multi-rather advocates that the future is not a dream, raise the price, and prepare for the market. In a variety of coins, ‘strong’ IT Times journalists find that “empties” transmit a picture of Bitcoin’s “springing down.”
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图源/网络
Figure Source/Network
只是这一魔咒到了2020年便破功。《IT时报》记者发现，今年春节前24天比特币累计涨幅超过17%。而发布者只字未提。
It's just that the spell broke in 2020. The IT Times journalist found that the cumulative increase in bitcoin was over 17% 24 days before the spring, and the publisher didn't say a word.
但币圈新人林恒对于魔咒还是深信不疑。2021年除夕为2月11日，他决定明年1月中旬前清仓一波。“只买了1万元左右，亏钱当交学费。”
But the newcomer Lin is still convinced of the spell. On February 11, 2021, he decided to clean up by mid-January next year. "Bought about $10,000 and paid for tuition."
事实上，今年的崩盘发生在3月12日，彼时比特币跌幅接近40%。杠杆炒币，韩青损失惨重。这次暴跌回吐了原先五六倍的盈利。更糟的是，正值疫情期间，韩青因为被失业，一下子没了生活费用，更别提抄底。他清空了大部分币。
In fact, this year’s crash occurred on March 12, when Peter’s bitcoin fell by almost 40%. Leveraging the coins, Han Qing lost a lot of money. This plunged back to five or six times the profit. Worse still, during the epidemic, Han Qing lost his job and lost his living expenses, let alone his bottom.
为了避免账户资金因被监管冻结导致无法提现，韩青不得不用多张卡、多个手机提现，每笔金额低于1万。
In order to avoid the fact that the funds in the account could not be released due to the regulatory freeze, Qing had to use multiple cards and mobile phones, each amount being less than 10,000.
韩青还有1万多元市值的数字货币仍在交易所，投资回报率在80%左右。如果币价从最高点回调20%-30%，他计划落袋为安。但他更想看到未来币价翻五六倍的那天。
Han Qing has a digital currency with a multi-market value of 10,000 still on the exchange, with an investment return of about 80%. If the currency returns from the top 20-30%, he plans to put it in his pocket.
一位币圈资深玩家自嘲，谁都认为自己可以从资本市场赚到钱，坚信在崩盘前自己不是最后的接盘者。但现实往往打脸。
A senior currency player mocks himself, who thinks he can make money from the capital market, convinced that he is not the last receiver before the crash. But reality often hits the face.
03
风口后的人
The man behind the wind.
挖矿不易，矿工“死去活来”
It's not easy to dig. Miners are "dead and alive."
Sadiq对比特币爱恨交加，称之为“七年之痒”。2013年秋天，他从朋友口中听说比特币，开始挖矿人生。
Sadiq Bitcoin loves to hate and calls it a seven-year itch. In the autumn of 2013, he learned of Bitcoin from his friends and began mining his life.
用电脑的闲置算力就可以挖到币，刨除电费几乎是一项无本的生意。但是每隔4年，区块奖励币数量减半，越到后期越难挖矿，挖矿要趁早。
The computer's inactivity makes it possible to dig up the money, and cutting electricity costs is almost a useless business. But every four years, the amount of block reward money is halved, and later it is more difficult to dig, sooner or later.
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图源/壹图网
Figure Source/One Chart Network
2013年12月，受央行等五部委印发《关于防范比特币风险的通知》影响，比特币价格从1200美元高位滑落，价格几近拦腰。而在2014年2月，比特币价格一度失守100美元大关。挖矿还不到半年，币价只剩1/12，英国挖矿小伙Sadiq慌了。能送人的送人，能抛售的抛售，提现400多美元后，他远离了纷争。
In December 2013, under the influence of the Central Bank and five other ministries to issue a notice on protection against the risk of Bitcoin, the price of bitcoin slipped from $1,200 to nearly $1,200. In February 2014, bitcoin prices lost $100. digs less than six months later, the price is 1/12, and the British miner Sadiq panics.
谁能想到7年后一枚比特币意味着2万多美元，如果当时他坚持，或许早已实现财富自由。近期伦敦新冠爆发，居家隔离的他又打开了电脑。矿机时代，他的GPU挖矿法已无法跟上世道。一个晚上，除了电脑发烫、发响，他一无所获。
Who would have thought that seven years later a bitcoin would have meant more than $20,000, and if he had insisted, he might have been free of wealth by now. Recently, a new London crown broke out, and the family-segregated he turned on his computer. In the mine machine age, his GPU mining was no longer able to keep up with the world. One night, he had nothing but a hot, loud computer.
远在英国的他甚至无法买到一台合适的矿机。
Far from England, he couldn't even buy a suitable miner.
挖一枚比特币，现在有多难？以蚂蚁矿机T19（算力84TH/S）为例，其功率为3150W（±5%），挖币网数据显示，该矿机日产出0.00065016个比特币，相当于要不断挖足1538天（4.21年）才挖到一枚比特币。11.63万度电费支出约7.87万元（以北京市大工业用电0.677元/度算）。而矿机成本为1.43万元。
How difficult is it to dig a bitcoin? In the case of the ant mine machine T19 (calculus 84TH/S), which has a capacity of 3150 W (+5 per cent), data from the network show that the mine produces 0.00065016 bitcoins per day, which is equivalent to 1538 days (4.21 years) of continuous excavation to reach a bitcoin.
假设4年间区块奖励不减半，没有算力更强的矿机入场，矿机日夜正常工作，挖一个币净赚不到6万元。
Assuming block incentives are not halved over a four-year period, there is no more productive miner coming in, the mine is working day and night, and
高能耗、高投入，比特币究竟能给人们带来什么？这是风口外的一群人仍在困惑的问题。一位资深财经评论员告诉《IT时报》记者，比特币挖矿没有太多实质的意义，这更像一种癌细胞，浪费耗尽能源，除了记账外，却无法承担规模化的作用。
What does Bitcoin do to people when it's energy-intensive and input-intensive? A group of people outside the wind is still confused. A senior financial reviewer told the IT Times reporter that Bitcoin digs mines with little substance, more like a cancer cell that wastes energy, but does not have the ability to take on scale, except by bookkeeping.
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图源/Pixabay
Source/Pixabay
为了控制成本，矿场往往被安排于偏远地区，为了获得当地政府的电力补贴。也有的矿场被安置在水电站、风电站里，争夺优惠电费。不过，去年4月份，国家发改委曾将“虚拟货币挖矿”列入未标淘汰期限或淘汰计划的条目，为国家产业政策已明令淘汰或立即淘汰的产业。
In order to contain costs, mines are often located in remote areas to obtain local government subsidies for electricity. There are also mines located in hydroelectric and wind power stations for preferential electricity charges.
此后，隆隆的矿场几近绝迹，直到去年11月，才又见一线生机，该条目从计划中被删除。
It was not until November of last year that there was a fresh start in the mine nearing extinction, and the entry was removed from the plan.
记者手记：比特币的故事一直在重复
在这座5000亿美元市值构成的比特币之城中有什么？一个不断上涨的数字货币，一场投资者的狂欢，如同一颗无止境的膨胀的星球，最终坍塌成为一个黑洞。
What is in this city of bitcoin, which has a market value of $500 billion? A rising digital currency, a carnival of investors, like an endlessly expanding planet, eventually collapses into a black hole.
似乎保守者对比特币依旧持观望态度，如果没有国家信用背书，仅仅依靠一群人的信仰，是否终成一场自嗨？
It seems that conservative Bitcoin remains a watchful attitude, and if there is no endorsement of State credit and relies only on the beliefs of a group of people, does it end up as a hysteria?
激进者仍在掘金的路上。他们包装成布道者的形象，讲述着比特币的信仰。这种信仰是去中心的去信任机制，还是相信下一个接盘者，似乎仍难判断。
The radicals are still digging for gold. They wrap it up into the image of the sermon, describing the faith of Bitcoin. It seems difficult to judge whether it is a trust mechanism to go to the centre or to believe in the next receiver.
矿工们也在枯燥中度过。一位矿工群里直言，如果不是看着好像能挣快钱，他本对比特币并没有太多的认知。
The miners spent their time in boredom. One of the miners said that he didn't know much about Benbitcoin if he didn't look like he could make quick money.
的确，相比黄金，比特币具有匿名、易于携带、可分割等特性。但神坛阴影处，还有恐怖主义融资、洗钱等行为的可能。低效的POS机制，决定了并发量受限。日常高频场景，我们可以拥有区块链，但并不一定需要比特币。
Indeed, Bitcoin is anonymous, easy to carry, severable, and so on, compared to gold. But there is also the possibility of terrorist financing, money-laundering, etc. Ineffective POS mechanisms, which determine and limit the volume. Daily high-frequency scenarios, we can have block chains, but not necessarily Bitcoin.
回顾比特币的历史，一个个故事在漩涡中共振。新的高位吸引入场逐利的追高者，新的期待又牵引出同样热烈的野望，甚至高回报收益下的承诺和展示依旧存在。这依旧需要法律的规范和约束。
Looking back at Bitcoin’s history, a story resonances in the vortex. New heights attract profit-seeking chasers, and new expectations draw the same enthusiasm from the wild, even promises and displays of high returns.
近期大连一男子因炒作比特币导致2000多万家底被掏空，弑妻杀女后跳海自杀未遂的新闻刷屏。那是2020年6月18日的故事。有网友评论如果他能持币留到现在，可能不会有这样的惨案。但记者想的是，如果他没有进入数字货币交易所……
Recently, more than 20 million families were emptied by a man who was faking Bitcoin, and a wife killed her and then tried to commit suicide in the sea. That was the story of June 18, 2020. Some netizens commented that if he could keep the money to the present time, there might not be such a tragedy. But the journalist thought that if he hadn't entered the digital money exchange...
作者／IT时报记者 孙鹏飞
编辑／挨踢妹
排版／冯诚杰
Layout/Fongcheng Jing
图片／东方IC 壹图网 包图网 Pixabay 推特 网络
Photo/Oriental IC #1 net Pixabay Twitter network
来源／《IT时报》公众号vittimes
Source/The IT Times Public Number Vittimes
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