美国以太坊ETF需求不及比特币 ETH未来前景如何

作者：Sidhartha Shukla，Bloomberg；编译：五铢，金色财经

Author: Sidhartha Shukla, Bloomberg; edited: Five baht, Gold Book

分析师表示，美国首次推出的以太坊加密货币交易所交易基金可能产生的需求远低于现货比特币产品，这使第二大代币的前景变得扑朔迷离。

According to the analyst, the first-ever introduction by the United States of of the Ethernocial Exchange Trading Fund could result in a much lower demand than the spot bitcoin product, making the prospects for the second-largest generation uncertain.

贝莱德公司和富达投资是寻求上市以太坊基金的发行人之一，等待美国证券交易委员会的最终批准。摩根大通公司的策略师预计，以太坊 ETF 的净流入量将远低于今年涌入比特币投资工具的 153 亿美元。

Belett and Fuda are among the issuers of the ETA Fund seeking final approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Morgan Chase's strategist predicts that the net inflow of ETF from `strong' will be much lower than the $15.3 billion that went into the Bitcoin investment instruments this year.

五个月前成立的比特币 ETF 受益于一种有争议的说法，即将市场领先的代币宣传为数字黄金，而以太坊则缺乏这种说法。以太坊基金也不会提供所谓的区块链维护质押奖励，这种回报可以通过直接持有代币来获得。

The Bitcoin ETF, which was established five months ago, benefits from a controversial argument that the market’s leading tokens are promoted as digital gold, which is lacking in the Etherm. The Etherm Fund does not offer so-called block chain-maintenance pledge incentives, which can be obtained through direct possession of the tokens.

“以太坊没有比特币的形象，”BTC Markets Pty 首席执行官 Caroline Bowler 表示，并补充说比特币的市值为 1.4 万亿美元，是以太坊的三倍。“它不会产生同样的影响。”

"There's no bitcoin in the house," said BTC Marcets Pty CEO Caroline Bowler, adding that Bitcoin had a market value of 1.4 trillion dollars, three times that of the house. "It doesn't have the same effect."

意外转折

Unexpected turn

在 2023 年法院推翻这一决定后，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 勉强允许比特币基金，上个月，该机构意外转向批准现货以太坊 ETF。这一转变推高了以太坊的价格，但在过去的一年里，以太坊 109% 的涨幅仍落后于比特币 169% 的涨幅，其中包括 3 月份创下的历史新高。

After the decision was overturned by the court in 2023, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reluctantly allowed the Bitcoin Fund, and last month, the agency unexpectedly turned to the approval of the spot ETF. This shift pushed the price of Etheria up, but over the past year, the increase of Etheria's 109 per cent was still behind the increase of Bitcoin's 169 per cent, including its historic height in March.

以 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 为首的摩根大通策略师估计，预期的以太坊投资组合将在今年剩余时间内吸引 10 亿至 30 亿美元的“适度”净流入。彭博情报高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 表示，这些产品可能很难获得美国比特币 ETF 资产的 20%，目前该资产为 625 亿美元。

The Morgan Chase strategist, led by Nikolaos Panigtzoglou, estimates that the expected Etherm investment portfolio will attract between $1 billion and $3 billion in “moderate” net inflows for the rest of the year. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst for the Bloomberg intelligence, says that

加密货币专家 K33 Research 的高级研究分析师 Vetle Lunde 属于乐观派。他预测前五个月的净流入量将达到 40 亿美元，而“巨大的供应吸收冲击”应该会提振以太坊。

The senior research analyst for encryption money specialist K33 Research, Vetle Lunde, is an optimist. He predicts a net inflow of $4 billion in the first five months, while the “big supply absorbs shocks” should boost the talisman.

与此同时，正在寻求推出以太坊 ETF 的基金经理 VanEck 认为，该代币的底层以太坊区块链在加密金融服务等应用中的流行将为生态带来好处。

At the same time, Van Eckk, the fund manager who is seeking to roll out Ether's ETF, believes that ecological benefits will be derived from the popular use of the bottom of the coin's Ether block chain in applications such as encrypted financial services.

“随着时间的推移，我们预计投资者会得出结论，以太坊生态系统中的应用和创新潜力可能比比特币大得多，”VanEck 的数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 表示。

“Most time, we expect investors to conclude that the application and innovation potential of

套利者退出

philanthropy exits

1 月 11 日，美国有 9 只新的 ETF 上市，比特币价格最初下跌。同一天，成立十多年的 Grayscale Bitcoin Trust（当时最大的比特币投资组合）从封闭式结构转换为 ETF。

On January 11, there were nine new ETFs listed in the United States, and Bitcoin prices fell initially. On the same day, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (the largest bitcoin portfolio at the time) was established for more than a decade from a closed structure to an ETF.

套利者退出后，套利者从投资组合单位价格与净资产价值的折价中获利，该折价在投资组合成为 ETF 时关闭。

After the arbitrator withdraws, the arbitrator benefits from the discount between the portfolio unit price and the net asset value, which is closed when the portfolio becomes ETF.

最终，对新 ETF 的强劲需求掩盖了 Grayscale 资金流出的影响，比特币价格继续上涨。

Ultimately, the strong demand for the new ETF masked the impact of Grayscale financial outflows and the price of bitcoin continued to rise.

这次，Grayscale Investments LLC 打算将其价值 110 亿美元的以太坊产品转换为 ETF。与比特币基金的情况一样，净资产价值折价已经结束，套利者可能会离开最大的以太坊基金。Grayscale 没有回复有关该产品前景的评论请求。

This time, Grayscale Investments LLC intends to convert its $11 billion value into ETF. As in the case of the Bitcoin Fund, the net asset value discount is over, and arbitrators may leave the largest ETA fund. Grayscale has not responded to a request for comment about the future of the product.

研究公司 Kaiko 表示，一旦 ETF 上线，灰度基金赎回导致以太坊面临“抛售压力”，这是“合理”的预期，但潜在资金流出对整体市场的影响尚不清楚。

According to the research company Kaiko, once the ETF is online, the Greyscale Fund's redemption leads to a “sale pressure” on Ether, which is a “reasonable” expectation, but the impact of potential financial outflows on the overall market is unclear.

截至伦敦时间周四上午 9:40，以太坊交易价格为 3,847 美元。虽然比特币仍有可能创下新高，但以太坊距离疫情期间牛市创下的 4,866 美元的历史高点还有一段距离。

As of Thursday morning in London, at 9.40 a.m., $3,847 at the taupulega exchange price. While bitcoin is still likely to rise, there is still a distance from the historic height of $4,866 at the cow market during the outbreak.

ByteTree Asset Management 团队（包括首席投资官 Charlie Morris）在一份报告中写道：“全球投资者对以太坊的热情一直不高，多年来，他们一直可以通过欧洲和加拿大购买以太坊。

The ByteTree Asset Management team (including Chief Investment Officer Charlie Morris) wrote in a report: “Global investors have been less enthusiastic about Etheria and have been buying it through Europe and Canada for many years.