2.0即将起航，以太坊转PoS会是ETC的逆袭机会吗？

在2021年（完全切换至PoS机制）之前，除了ETH正式启动Staking之外，对于以太坊矿工来说更具威胁性的应该是难度炸弹这一未知之数。被一再推迟的难度炸弹，下一次预测引爆时间为明年3月。如果届时其正式启动，以太坊网络PoW出块速度将在接下来的四个月内从如今的13秒逐月递增至38秒。这意味着在当前区块奖励不变的情况下，2020年6月PoW机制下日内挖出的ETH将减少至现阶段的三分之一。而在区块奖励被PoS机制瓜分以及难度炸弹的双重夹击下，明年Q2以太坊矿工始终要做出去留的选择。

By 2021 (a complete switch to the PoS mechanism), apart from the ETH’s official launch of Staking, the number of difficult bombs should be unknown. The next forecast for detonation in March is for a bomb that has been repeatedly postponed. If it is officially launched, the speed at PoW will increase from 13 seconds to 38 seconds in the next four months.

图片截自：Ethhub创始人Eric Conner的推特

Image by Eric Conner, founder of Ethhub.

对于拥有更好的设备以及电力成本优势的矿工来说，或许还能撑一段时间；但大部分入不敷出甚至无法挖出ETH的矿工很快便得关机离场。就如2017年以及2018年两次难度炸弹爆炸时一样，大部分算力会陆续逃离ETH网络。但不同的是，ETH正式开启Staking以及逐步转向PoS的明年，以太坊矿工不会再有等待时机、算力回流ETH的选项。离开以太坊矿链之后，他们只能选择切换算力、让显卡回流传统市场或者继续留在ETH链上参与Staking。

For miners with better equipment and power cost advantages, it may be possible to survive for some time; but most miners who are unable to enter or even dig out the ETH will be out soon. As in 2017 and two difficult bomb explosions in 2018, most of the calculus will be able to flee the ETH network. But, differently, the next year when ETH officially opens Staking and gradually moves to Pos, the Ether miners will no longer have the option of waiting for time, counting back on ETH.

左图：以太坊区块奖励日产生情况；右图：以太坊历年算力变化情况（图片源自：etherscan，bitinfocharts）

left chart: The Day of Incentives in the Taiwan Block; right chart: The Yearly Arithmetic Changes in the Taepan (pics from: etherscan, bitinfocharts)

不过从目前的情况来看，以太坊矿工选择参与Staking的可能性较低。抛开矿工的前期固定成本投入不讨论，以太坊的PoS协议本身就具有很多的不确定性；而且单单是Staking过程中质押ETH获得BETH操作不可逆这一点就会让不少普通用户却步，因为这意味着在ETH成功切换至PoS机制之前，用户将无法使用以及交易那些锁定在Beacon链上的ETH。至于让显卡回流传统市场的选择，也不太现实。早前鱼池工作人员以及许昕接受星球日报采访时表示，如果是NVIDIA的显卡可以在深度学习以及视频渲染中承载新的价值，但矿工需要有资源找到买家；而B端需求太过于集中，矿工根本无法获取，假设某大公司有这样的需求，很可能是一下子就需要10万台显卡机器；那还不如直接挖矿。

In the current situation, however, it is less likely that the miners will choose to be involved in the Staking. The PoS agreement, without discussing the pre-existing fixed cost input of the miners, has great uncertainty in itself; and the mere pledge of ETH to BETH in the Staking process would discourage a number of ordinary users, since this means that the users will not be able to use and trade those ETHs that are locked in the Beacon chain until the ETH is successfully switched to the PoS mechanism. As far as the choice to return to the traditional market is concerned, it may not be realistic. The early fish pool workers and Xiao Xiao Xiao, in an interview with the Daily Planet, said that if NVIDIA's card can carry new values in depth learning and video-recording, the miners will need resources to find buyers; B is too concentrated, the miners are simply unable to access them, assuming that a large company has such a need, it is likely that 100,000 card machines will be needed immediately; that is less than directly mined.

这样分析下来，切换算力，寻找显卡矿业新的头部币种才是该阶段较为符合以太坊矿工处境的选择。而没有新显卡挖矿明星币种出现的情况下，表现较为稳定且市场深度相对较好的ETC在某种程度上来说是其中的最优选。

In this way, the ability to convert and search for the new head currency of the visible-card mining industry is the option that would be more appropriate to the situation of the Ether miners. The ETC, which is more stable and market-deeper to some extent, would be the best option without the emergence of the new-card-digging star currency.

市值排名前二十的显卡挖矿币种资料对比（数据源自：Coinmarketcap，wk588）

market value of top 20 card mining currency comparison (data from Coinmarketcap, wk588)

虽然以太坊经典市值不如同样支持显卡挖矿的门罗币，但其上线交易所更多、日交易量排名靠前，而且全网算力更高。在逐利的矿工面前，除了挖矿收益情况以及价格之外，交易深度也是他们尤其是大型矿工考量的要点；不然挖到的币拿到交易所没有对手，挖了也是白搭。另一方面。对于购入AMD显卡（效率高成本低但转型难）以及蚂蚁E3矿机（专注于Ethash算法）的矿工来说，可切换币种非常有限；与ETH同宗同源且难度炸弹已被移除的ETC亦是他们较为适合的选择。

Although it is not as good as the Monroe, which also supports card mining, it has more upper-line exchanges, a higher ranking of day-to-day transactions, and a higher net value. In the presence of profit-driven miners, the depth of the trade is a matter of particular consideration for large miners, in addition to the returns and prices; otherwise, the currency that is dug up has no counterpart in the exchange and is dug for nothing. On the other hand, for miners who buy AMD cards (efficiently expensive but difficult to transform) and ant E3 machines (focusing on Ethash algorithms), there is a very limited exchange of currency; and the ETC, which is the same as the ETH and difficult bombs that have been removed, is their preferred option.

注：ECIP-1017上写道，在ETC这种模型之下，每500万个区块将会减少20%的区块奖励（图片截自：github.com/ethereumproject）

Note : ECIP-1017 states that, under the ETC model, a 20% reduction in block incentives per 5 million blocks (picture cut from github.com/othereumproject)

而更值得关注的是，明年三月ETH难度炸弹启动与ETC挖矿奖励减少，两者叠加下将会产生的助推作用。根据ECIP-1017的资料显示，每500万个区块的挖出，ETC网络将会减少20%的区块奖励；而明年三月左右以太坊经典将再次面临减产。

What is even more interesting is that the launch of the ETH hard bomb in March next year and the reduction of the ETC mining incentive will add up. According to ECIP-1017, the ETC network will be reduced by 20% for every 5 million blocks that have been excavated; and it will again face a reduction in production around March next year.

以太坊经典历史价格（图片截自：Coinmarketcap）

with taejo's classic historical price (photo from Coinmarkketcap)

虽然不同于比特币以及莱特币每四年一次的区块奖励减半，但从历史数据上看，ETC减产期间同样出现了类似的“减半行情”；其价格于减产当月达到历史高点46.17美元，月内涨幅近20%。当然该时间段的减产碰巧撞上了17年的牛市，ETC价格上涨到底多少受到减产影响还有待考究。而如果按照“减半行情”的剧情发展，ETC价格会走出上涨趋势；与此同时在难度炸弹启动、ETH挖矿收益锐减的大背景下，ETC矿链将有承接部分ETH算力的可能。虽说这样不足以让以太坊经典逆袭，但是凭借着算力以及价格的增长，摆脱“末日战车”的名号还是可以的。

Unlike Bitcoin and Leitco’s four-year block incentives, historical data show a similar & & & & & & & & & & ; prices of & & & & & & & & & Qu; prices reached a historic high of $46.17 in the month of the reduction. Of course, it happened to hit the cattle market for 17 years, and the prices of ETC prices were more or less affected. And if the & & & & & & & & & & & & ; the dramatic developments, ETC prices would move out of the upward trend; and, at the same time, in the larger context of the start of the difficult bomb and the sharp decline in revenues from ETH mining, the ETC mine chain would have the potential to absorb some of the ETH.