中国市场崛起致MT.gox倒闭

　　■ 一家之言

• The word of the family

　　中国市场目前交易量依然非常大，占到整个全球交易量的50%，所以国际比特币市场也要看中国比特币市场的眼色。

The Chinese market is still very large, accounting for 50 per cent of the global volume, so the international bitcoin market also depends on China's Bitcoin market.

　　国际比特币市场出现了前所未有的危机，先是最具历史成就和影响力的，曾一度占全世界70%交易量的全球第一大比特币交易平台MT.gox走向倒闭，濒临破产。近日又爆出了新加坡比特币交易平台FirstMeta的28岁美女CEO秋·莱德科自杀身亡。在比特币“基础协议”没有出现问题的情况下，交易所出现的问题首先可以归结为自身经营的问题，但这些问题不可避免地将冲击比特币价格走势，对现有投资者将造成重大影响。

The unprecedented crisis in the international Bitcoin market began with the most historic achievement and impact, with the collapse and imminent bankruptcy of the MT.gox, the world’s first-largest trading platform, which once accounted for 70% of the world’s transactions. The 28-year-old Ceocho Leedco, a young woman of the first Meta trading platform in Singapore, recently blew up and killed herself.

　　比特币交易所的运营成本实际上是很高的，属于互联网里面的高科技企业，这类公司不仅需要强大的技术团队来开发、运营软件系统，还需要专门成立防范黑客攻击的负责网络安全的团队，如果没有持续的收入来源，又没有持续的风险投资资金注入，交易所自己就很难长期维持下去。

The operating costs of the Bitcoin exchange are in fact high and belong to high-tech enterprises on the Internet, which require not only a strong technical team to develop and operate software systems, but also a dedicated network security team to guard against hacker attacks. Without a sustained source of income and a sustained injection of venture capital, the exchange itself will be difficult to sustain over the long term.

　　自从中国比特币交易市场崛起之后，MT.gox的交易量就开始下降，从最早的占全球交易量70%下降到不足10%，导致营收受到影响，在运营、安全等方面的支出减少，无法有效抵御黑客攻击，最终导致价值超过3亿美元的比特币被盗，平台不得不宣布停业，且濒临破产。从这个方面来说，除了全球新增投资者增速下降的原因以外，中国市场的崛起，诸多中国投资者不再涌向国际市场，是导致MT.gox走向衰落的直接导火索。

Since the rise of China’s Bitcoin trading market, MT.gox’s volume has declined, from the earliest 70% to less than 10% of global transactions, affecting revenue collection, operating, security, etc., and failing to effectively withstand hacker attacks, eventually leading to over $300 million worth of stolen bitcoins, the platform being forced to shut down, and on the verge of bankruptcy. In this respect, the rise of Chinese markets, apart from the reasons for the decline in the growth of new global investors, and the absence of many Chinese investors to international markets, is a direct trigger for the decline of MT.gox.

　　中国市场目前交易量依然非常大，占到整个全球交易量的50%，所以国际比特币市场也要看中国比特币市场的眼色。对于比特币价格来说，今后的走势也主要看中国市场，如果中国的各个平台发展稳定，有持续的新的投资者参与，对比特币市场的长远发展有很大支撑作用。中国市场对比特币的影响力和定价权也会持续提高，但这还需要中国政府进一步明确对比特币的政策。

China’s market is still very large, accounting for 50% of global transactions, so the international bitcoin market also depends on China’s Bitcoin market. For bitcoin prices, future trends also depend mainly on China’s market.

　　MT.gox一度是全球比特币投资者最信赖的平台，所以它的破产肯定会对市场造成很大的影响，这也是最近一段时间比特币持续低迷的主要原因，这一影响预计还会持续一段时间。

Since MT.gaux was once the most trusted platform for global Bitcoin investors, its bankruptcy is bound to have a significant impact on the market, which is the main reason for the continued lowness of Bitcoin in recent times, which is expected to continue for some time.

　　由于中国、美国等政府还没有明确对比特币的态度，所有的风险需要市场自己消化，包括中国在内，全球比特币交易所面临的风险跟MT.gox是一样的，一旦交易量下降，吸引风险投资的能力减弱，收入减少，整个维持平台安全的能力就会出问题，就容易遭到黑客攻击。

As governments such as China, the United States and others do not have a clear bitcoin attitude, all risks need to be absorbed by the market itself, including China, where global Bitcoin transactions face the same risks as MT.gox. Once the volume of transactions declines, the ability to attract venture capital decreases and revenue decreases, the overall ability to maintain platform security becomes problematic and vulnerable to hacking.

　　另外，比特币交易所并不是金融企业，所以其破产不像金融机构破产一样，有严格的对投资者的保护措施，一旦出现像MT.gox一样的情况，投资者可能会面临血本无归的风险。

Moreover, the Bitcoin exchange is not a financial enterprise, so it is not as bankrupt as a financial institution, and there are strict protections for investors, who may run the risk of being bloodless in the event of a situation like MT.gox.

　　比特币基础协议目前还是安全的，不会受到交易所破产等的影响，这一点有助于整个互联网产业继续探索比特币的实用价值。不久的将来，这种可以在支付方面起到一定作用的“协议系统”，有望引入银行业、零售业等体系，用来降低支付、结算和买卖成本。但比特币价格一年上涨万倍的泡沫行情已经被刺破，成为全球货币的脚步也将大大放缓。

In the near future, this “agreement system,” which could play a role in payments, is expected to be introduced in banking, retail, and so on, to reduce payment, settlement, and purchase costs. But the bubble of a multi-fold increase in Bitcoin prices a year has been stabbed, and the pace of becoming a global currency will slow considerably.

　　□肖磊（财经评论人）

□ Xiao Jian (financial reviewer)