分析：比特币历史价格周期和回撤

?随着比特币继续从历史高点回落，我们来看看过去主要价格周期中回撤的频率和幅度。

# As bitcoin continues to fall from historical heights, let's see the frequency and range of withdrawals in the main price cycles of the past.

?超过10%的回撤是经常发生的，即使在比特币从周期性低谷上升到峰值期间也是如此。

# More than 10% of withdrawals occur frequently, even during the period when Bitcoin rose from a cyclical valley to a peak.

?虽然目前的回撤幅度比平均水平要小(但可能还没有结束)，但投资者应该为超过10%的定期回撤做好准备。

? While the current level of withdrawal is smaller than the average (but may not be over), investors should be prepared for more than 10 per cent of the periodic evacuations.

上周，比特币价格大幅下跌，从73835美元的峰值(Coinbase数据)跌至60771美元的低点，回调幅度为17.7%。自1月底以来，现货ETF连续几天出现资金流出，引发了这一下跌，这让许多人质疑比特币的涨势是否已经停止，还是只是暂停一下。我们本周的分析深入研究了历史上从低谷到顶峰的周期和周期内的回撤，以提供对当前价格调整的见解。

Last week, Bitcoin prices fell sharply, from a peak of $73,835 (Coinbase data) to a low of $60,771, with a return of 17.7 per cent, triggered by a few consecutive days of financial outflows from spot ETFs since the end of January, which has led many to question whether Bitcoin’s upturn has stopped or simply suspended. Our analysis this week examined the historical recovery from the valley to the peak cycle and cycle in order to provide insight into the current price adjustment.

比特币在其历史上经历了4个重要的价格周期，分别在2011年、2013年、2017年和2021年达到峰值，这些峰值都集中在奖励减半上。在这些峰值之后，从峰值到低谷出现了75%或更多的长期大幅回撤。虽然关于这些周期背后的原因（以及它们是否真的存在）的争论仍在继续，但反复出现的价格模式的存在甚至挑战了有效市场假说（EMH）的最弱形式。尽管如此，我们还是可以使用这些周期来识别“上升”阶段，从比特币的低点、低谷开始，一直到峰值。

Bitcoin has experienced four important price cycles in its history, peaking in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021, all of which are concentrated on halving the incentives. After these peaks, there has been a 75% or more substantial long-term retreat from the peak to the valley.

我们目前正处于周期的这个阶段，从低谷到最终的顶峰(时间和价格都不确定)。在FTX崩盘期间，比特币于22年11月21日跌至15460美元的低点后，比特币进入了新周期的“上涨”阶段，收复了之前的损失，并在3月4日创下了历史新高。

We are at this stage of the cycle, from the valley to the final peak (time and price uncertain). During the FTX crash, after Bitcoin fell to a low of $15460 on 21 November 22, Bitcoin entered the “up” phase of the new cycle, recovering its earlier losses, and reached an all-time high on 4 March.

在此背景下，我们将探讨过去“上行”周期的回撤是如何展开的，以及它们可能为当前周期提供什么见解。

In this context, we will explore how the withdrawals from the “upstream” cycle of the past have been carried out and what they may provide for the current cycle.

分析2013年的周期（由于当时比特币的新颖性，我们跳过了2011年），它在11月底达到了顶峰，很明显，有多次明显且持续的低迷，包括两次超过40%，一次超过70%(在2013年春季)。我们的重点是记录从收盘价到收盘价(UTC午夜)超过10%的回撤。2013年春季，比特币的价格在7天内迅速跌至谷底，但直到11月，比特币的价格才完全回升，并最终达到周期的新高，花了整整 7 个月的时间。

An analysis of the 2013 cycle (we jumped over 2011 because of the novelty of Bitcoin at the time) reached its peak at the end of November, when it became clear that there had been a number of distinct and persistent depressions, including two more than 40% and one more than 70% (in the spring of 2013). Our focus was on recording the withdrawal of more than 10% from the collection price to the collection price (UTC midnight). In the spring of 2013, Bitcoin prices fell rapidly to the bottom of the valley within seven days, but only in November did Bitcoin prices recover completely and eventually reach a new high of the cycle, which took a full seven-month period.

2017年是比特币进入专业投资界时代精神的周期。虽然比特币最终达到了近2万美元的峰值，但在这个周期中，比特币的回撤超过了10%。与2013年周期只有5次这样的情况不同，2017年周期经历了13次类似幅度的回撤。这使得2017年的周期比2013年更加动荡，尽管没有发生一次大规模的回撤事件。

In 2017, Bitcoin entered the spirit of a professional investment era. Although Bitcoin eventually peaked at almost $20,000, Bitcoin withdrew by more than 10% during the cycle. Unlike only five in 2013, the 2017 cycle experienced 13 withdrawals of similar magnitude.

2021年的周期在11月BITO期货ETF推出后达到顶峰，是最新的完整周期(除非我们看到当前周期的高点，但我们不这么认为)。从2018年12月的低点3128美元开始，比特币在2019年上半年飙升至13000美元以上。之后，它在接下来的9个月里经历了大幅回撤，在2020年3月新冠肺炎危机爆发时达到低点，累计下降62.4%。随后，在货币和财政刺激措施的推动下，经济对Covid-19的反应导致比特币价格飙升。该周期于2021年11月结束，价格为6.9万美元。在整个2021年的周期中，比特币遭遇了10次10%或更多的大幅下跌。

The 2021 cycle peaked in November with the launch of the BITO Futures ETF, the latest full cycle (unless we see the height of the current cycle, but we do not think so). Beginning with a low of $3128 in December 2018, Bitcoin jumped to more than $13,000 in the first half of 2019. After that, it experienced a dramatic retreat in the next nine months, reaching a low point in the wake of the March 2020 crisis with a cumulative decline of 62.4 per cent, and then, driven by monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, the economy’s response to Covid-19 led to a sharp rise in Bitcoin prices. The cycle ended in November 2021, with a price of $69,000.

目前的周期从2022年11月的低点开始，经历了5次超过10%的重大回撤，包括我们所处的这次。以收盘价计算，目前的跌幅已经达到15.4%，如果考虑盘中高点和低点，跌幅已经达到17.7%。

The current cycle began at a low point in November 2022, and has experienced five major withdrawals of more than 10%, including the one in which we are located. In terms of round-up prices, the current decline has reached 15.4%, and if one considers the midpoint and the low, it has reached 17.7%.

看看之前所有周期中跌幅超过10%的情况，我们发现它们是上涨周期的常规特征。目前的回撤虽然可能还没有结束，但迄今为止比以前的回撤幅度更小。我们的分析既包括以收盘价衡量的回撤，也包括以日内高点和低点衡量的回撤，后者更为严重。

Looking at all previous cycles that had dropped by more than 10 per cent, we found that they were the regular features of the upward cycle. While the current withdrawal may not be over, it has so far been smaller than the previous one. Our analysis includes both withdrawals, measured in terms of round-up prices, and withdrawals, measured in terms of higher and lower points in the day, which are even more serious.

目前的回调虽然具有挑战性，但与比特币之前的价格周期完全一致。投资者应该对此类事件的必然性做好准备，因为与所有其他金融市场一样，进展并不总是直线的。我们对两周前区块链数据的分析显示，几乎没有迹象表明周期即将结束。

The current feedback, though challenging, is fully consistent with the pre-bitcoin price cycle. Investors should be prepared for the inevitability of such events, because, like all other financial markets, progress is not always straight. Our analysis of block chain data two weeks ago shows little evidence of the end of the cycle.

比特币本周收盘下跌5.8%，从几周前创下的历史高点回落，因为推动价格上涨的ETF资金流入已转为资金流出。GBTC投资者尚未停止资金外流，自该基金转变为开放式ETF以来，资金外流已达136亿美元，流入挑战者基金的资金也大幅放缓。就资产管理规模而言，GBTC仍以229亿美元位居榜首，但贝莱德的IBIT已缩小了巨大差距，目前为159亿美元。富达(Fidelity)的FBTC以89亿美元远远排在第三位。

Bitcoin fell by 5.8% this week, falling from its record highs a few weeks ago, because the ETF inflows, which fueled the price increase, have shifted to capital outflows. GBTC investors have not stopped the outflow, which has slowed down significantly since the Fund became an open ETF, to $13.6 billion. GBTC is still ranked first on asset management at $22.9 billion, but the IBIT of Beled has narrowed the gap, currently at $15.9 billion. FBTC of FBTC is ranked third for $8.9 billion.

鸽派的美联储维持利率不变，对未来降息的可能性持开放态度，这使得多数资产本周走高。股市方面，标准普尔500指数上涨1.8%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.7%。受利率消息影响，债券表现良好，投资级公司债券上涨0.5%，高收益公司债券上涨0.5%，美国长期国债上涨0.1%。油价小幅下跌0.2%，而金价上涨0.8%。

On the stock market, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose by 1.8%, the NASDAQ composite index rose by 1.7%, subject to interest rate news, bonds performed well, investment-level corporate bonds rose by 0.5%, high-yield corporate bonds by 0.5%, United States long-term public debt increased by 0.1%, oil prices fell slightly by 0.2%, while gold prices rose by 0.8%.

Bernstein将比特币年底目标价上调至9万美元，来自CoinDesk

Bernstein adjusted the year-end target price of Bitcoin up to $90,000 from

渣打银行将年底比特币预测上调至15万美元，预计2025年高点为25万美元，来自CoinDesk

By the end of the year, the Chartered Bank raised the forecast for Bitcoin to $150,000, with a projected height of $250,000 in 2025 from

摩根大通称，尽管近期出现回调，但比特币仍处于“超买区域”，来自The Block

Morgan Chase claims that, despite recent returns, Bitcoin is still in a “super-buying area” from

Grayscale首席执行官表示，GBTC比特币ETF费用将随着时间的推移而下降，来自CNBC

Grayscale's CEO indicated that GBTC bitcoin ETF costs will decrease over time from

Bitwise首席信息官表示，我们可能还需要几周时间才能推出首个支持现货比特币ETF的机构，来自The Block

According to the Chief Information Officer of Bitwise, it may take a few weeks before we launch the first institution to support the spot Bitcoin ETF from

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）在调查以太坊中的加密公司，因为以太坊ETF的希望黯淡，来自福布斯

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in its investigation of the encryption company Etheria because the hopes of ETF were bleak from

贝莱德在以太坊网络上推出首个代币化基金BUIDL，来自BlackRock

Belede launched the first monetization fund, BUIDL, on the Taiyem Network, from

Coinbase将于4月1日推出狗狗币、莱特币和比特币现金期货交易，来自The Block

Coinbase will launch on 1 April a cash futures transaction from

贝莱德(BlackRock)数字资产主管阐述了对其他加密产品的看法，来自Twitter

The Director of Digital Assets, Black Rock, presented his views on other encrypted products from

?3月29日 —— 3月CME到期

♪ March 29 ♪ ♪ March 29 ♪ ♪ March CME expires ♪