btc价格今日行情：比特币大跌或步入熊市

随着俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突的升级，国际金融市场迎来了一个震荡期，给全球风险资产带来了压力，其中比特币和以太坊正在下跌。据shilian.com报道，btc今日价格为38192.13美元/枚，比特币大幅下跌2.95%；以太坊一度跌破2600美元/枚，目前跌破4.85%至2672.54美元/枚，这意味着加密货币市场可能迎来熊市。 

With the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, international financial markets have reached a period of shock that has put pressure on global venture assets, with Bitcoin and Etheria falling. According to Shilian.com, the price of btc today was $38192.13/mere, with Bitcoin falling by 2.95%; it fell by $2,600/me; it has now fallen by 4.85% to $2672.54/me, which means that an encrypted currency market may come to bear markets. & nbsp;

虽然比特币的价格仍远高于1月24日32970美元的低点，但摩根大通战略师尼尼克斯·克林顿·克林顿·zoglou表示，正是这一低点将比特币推向了超卖区间。加密货币投资公司格林顿也表示，面对坏消息，比特币价格的任何上涨都将表明卖方在当前危机中筋疲力尽。

Although the price of Bitcoin is still well above the 24 January low of $3297, Morgan Chase strategist Nickels Clinton Zoglou states that it was this low point that pushed Bitcoin into the overselling zone. The crypto-currency investment company Greenton also states that any increase in Bitcoin prices in the face of bad news would indicate that the seller is exhausted in the current crisis.

从长远来看，自去年创历史最高以来，比特币价格进入震荡下行通道，经历了2018年以来持续时间最长的下跌。数据显示，仅2022年以来，比特币价格就下跌了20%左右，在全球资产中排名倒数第一。与之形成鲜明对比的是，去年比特币价格涨幅接近60%，在全球资产中首屈一指。

In the long run, since last year’s record high, bitcoin prices have gone down the tremor route, with their longest decline since 2018. The data show that, since 2022 alone, bitcoin prices have fallen by about 20%, ranking first among global assets.

很长一段时间以来，许多投资者一直对比特币的未来表现持乐观态度，但在漫长的下跌周期中，信仰不可避免地会动摇。目前，市场对比特币的走势持两种态度。首先，由于乌克兰危机的影响，比特币与黄金价格走势的偏谓的数字黄金价值已经消失，比特币和风险规避属性逐渐消失，未来可能成为泡沫资产；第二种是随着市场恐慌的消散，比特币甚至会上演惊人的逆转。

For a long time, many investors have been optimistic about the future performance of Bitcoin, but in a long cycle of decline, faith will inevitably waver. Currently, the market’s trend in bitcoin is twofold.

事实上，除了俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的冲突，比特币价格仍然面临三个宏观不利因素，从目前的水平下降76%到2023年的1万美元。影响比特币价格的因素包括全球货币供应、10年期美国债券收益率和标准普尔500指数的股票风险溢价。美联储计划以加息和减少资产负债表的形式收紧货币政策，这可能对比特币价格产生负面影响。

In fact, in addition to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Bitcoin prices still face three macro-deficit factors, down from 76% at the current level to $10,000 in 2023. Factors affecting Bitcoin prices include the global supply of currency, the 10-year rate of return on United States bonds, and the equity risk premium of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.

纵观比特币多年来的价格走势，比特币价格在2013年11月29日1月29日触及1137美元，2015年1月14日跌至183美元，仅一年就跌至84%。更重要的是，这一幕四年后再次重演。2017年12月17日，比特币价格达到19041美元的顶峰，一年后跌至3204美元，累计跌至83%。如果这一历史场景再次出现，2021年11月比特币价格达到69040年的历史高点，今年11月跌至11515美元的低点是理所当然的，比去年11月的高点下降了83%。

Over the years, Bitcoin prices reached $1137 on 29 November 2013 and fell to $183 on 14 January 2015, falling to 84% in just one year. More importantly, the scene was repeated four years later. On 17 December 2017, Bitcoins peaked at $1904, falling to $3204 a year later, falling cumulatively to 83%.

与熊市的到来相比，比特币牛市与每隔几年的减半过程密切相关。比特币最后一次减半发生在2020年5月，后来比特币在2021年突破了6.8万美元的历史高点。2016年的减半也发生了类似的情况，第二年比特币创下了当时的历史新高。在这两个峰值之后，比特币价格暴跌。到目前为止，比特币价格比去年11月的历史高点下跌了近40%。由于比特币将在四年内减半一次，下一次比特币将在2024年减半。

By comparison with the arrival of Bear City, the city of Bitcoin is closely linked to the process of halving the price every few years. The last halving of Bitcoin occurred in May 2020, and then by 2021, Bitcoin broke a historic high of $68,000. A similar situation occurred in 2016, when Bitcoin hit a new high. After those peaks, Bitcoin prices fell sharply. To date, Bitcoin prices have fallen by nearly 40 per cent over the previous year’s record in November.

一些专业人士表示，如果这个周期继续下去，我们现在正处于熊市的早期阶段，直到2024年底到2025年初，我们才能迎来比特币的下一个牛市。但很难预测下一次比特币减半的准确时间，因为还有许多其他因素也会影响市场，比如地缘政治问题，包括战争，或者最近的新冠军疫情也会影响市场。

Some professionals say that, if the cycle continues, we are now in the early stages of Bear City, and we will not be able to reach Bitcoin’s next cow before the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025. But it is difficult to predict the exact timing of the next halving of Bitcoin, because there are many other factors that will affect markets, such as geopolitical issues, including war, or the recent new champions’ epidemic.

但不可否认的是，比特币创造了许多价格神话，其本质需求是成为一种世界货币。比特币更多的是一种由高回报引起的投机热情和风险驱动的资产，而不是一种独立的价值存储方式。这就是为什么比特币、股市和其他市场继续下跌，黄金作为一种传统的避险资产，突破了2021年初以来的最高水平。

But it is undeniable that Bitcoin has created many price myths, the essence of which is that it needs to be a world currency. Bitcoin is more an asset driven by speculative enthusiasm and risk associated with high returns than by an independent storage of values.

毕竟，在战争和动荡期间，随着通信、网络等中断或不稳定，粮食、水、油、医药等材料，以及黄金等传统硬通货更容易交易；依赖互联网的比特币和其他加密资产不太方便交易。因为黄金是自然存在的，而比特币是后来数字化创造的。因此，黄金具有很强的使用属性，包括珠宝、商品等，人们对黄金的认知和接受度很高；比特币的使用属性、认知度和历史都比黄金差得多。同时，黄金不依赖互联网、通信、网络和信息终端，在战争和自然灾害中使用更方便。

After all, food, water, oil, medicine, and other traditional hard currency such as gold are easier to trade during times of war and instability as communications, networks, etc.; Internet-dependent bitcoin and other encrypted assets are less easily traded. Gold is naturally present, and bitcoin is created by subsequent digitization. Thus, gold has a strong property for use, including jewellery, commodities, etc., and has a high level of appreciation and acceptance of gold; bitcoin has a much lower attributes, perception and history than gold. At the same time, gold is less dependent on the Internet, communications, networks, and information terminals, and is more easily used in war and natural disasters.