“扎克冲击”：戳破元宇宙 Meta雪崩了

近日的Meta正遭受浩劫。2月3日公布最新财报后，Meta周三盘后股价暴跌21%，创下2012年该公司上市以来的最大单日跌幅，随后也一蹶不振，截至目前，一周时间Meta已经累积下跌35%，市值已经逼近6000亿美元。

The recent disaster in Meta is taking its toll. Following the release of the latest financial report on 3 February, Merta’s stock price fell by 21 per cent on Wednesday, the largest single-day fall since the company’s listing in 2012, followed by a collapse, with the cumulative 35 per cent decline in Meta and nearly $600 billion in market value as of now a week.

近一年Meta股价变化，来源：谷歌财经

颇具讽刺意味的地方在于，6000亿美元正是美国众议院专门针对大型科技公司推出一揽子竞争法案的“平台”市值门槛，若Meta在立法通过之后市值维持在该门槛之下，或将有助于Meta减少和反垄断机构打交道的次数。

Ironically, the $600 billion is the “platform” market value threshold that the United States House of Representatives has introduced specifically for large technology companies to introduce a competition package, if the market value of Meta remains below that threshold after legislation has been passed, or will help Meta to reduce the number of times it deals with antimonopoly agencies.

大型科技公司在美国股市中扮演着重大角色，最大的十只股票占据了标普500指数整体市值三分之一左右，这远高于2000年科技泡沫高峰期时的浓度。Meta的“黑色星期三”足以让美股整体遭遇一年来最糟糕的一天。

Large technology companies play a major role in the US stock market, with the top 10 stocks accounting for about one-third of the total market value of the PHP 500 index, much higher than at the peak of the technology bubble in 2000. Meta’s “black Wednesday” was enough for the US stock as a whole to experience the worst day of the year.

Meta被抹去的市值已经超过一个麦当劳、近乎英特尔的整个规模。Meta不仅带崩了美股社交网络板块，余震还波及了大洋这头的A股元宇宙板块。

The market value of Meta has been wiped out by more than a McDonald’s, almost the entire size of Intel. Not only did Meta bring down the American social networking plate, but the aftershock affected the ocean’s A-share cosmopolitan plate.

Meta暴雷，究竟是华尔街投资人太过注重短期的财报数据，还是社交时长货币化这门生意已经彻底步入黄昏，抑或是Meta的元宇宙之梦太过遥遥无期？

Meta Thunder, is it that Wall Street investors focus too much on short-term financial reporting, or is the business of long-term monetization going to the end of the night, or is Meta's dream of a meta-cosmos too far away?

Meta利空接踵而至

Metali > followed by

从消息面上来看，不及预期的财报数据显然是暴雷的直接导火索。

It appears from the sources that less than expected financial reporting data are a direct trigger for thunderstorms.

去年10月，扎克伯格将Facebook更名为Meta Platforms，这份财报是公司聚焦“元宇宙”以后的首份财报。

Last October, Zuckerberg changed the name of Facebook to Meta Platforms, the first of its kind since the company's focus on the Woncosmos.

Meta新版财报由两部分组成，一部分是由Facebook、Instagram、Messenger、WhatsApp组成的应用程序部分，也就是十几年来的传统业务，另一部分则是FRL（Reality Labs，Facebook现实实验室），包括与AR和VR相关硬件、软件和内容的创新业务。

The new version of Meta is composed of two parts, one on Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, a traditional business for over a decade, and the other on the FRL (Reality Labs, Facebook Reality Laboratory), which includes innovations in hardware, software and content related to AR and VR.

Meta面临的窘境，基本上可以概括为老业务停滞、新业务造血无期。

The dilemma faced by Meta can largely be summarized as the stagnation of the old business and the loss of life of the new business.

数据显示，去年四季度Meta营收为336.7亿美元，同比增长20%，略超预期，但较去年前三季度明显放缓；净利润方面，Meta更是出现2019年二季度以来首次下滑，录得102.9亿美元，同比下滑8%；月活用户数则不及分析师预期的29.5亿，但Meta四季度MAU仅为29.1亿，季环比出现下降。

The data show that in the fourth quarter of last year, the Meta camp received $33.67 billion, an increase of 20 per cent over the previous quarter, but a slight slowdown over the previous three quarters; in terms of net profits, Meta was the first to fall since the second quarter of 2019, recording a decline of $10.29 billion, or 8 per cent over the previous quarter; and the number of live monthly users was less than the analyst's estimate of $2.95 billion, but MAU was only 2.91 billion in the fourth quarter, with a decline in the Quarter.

Meta上市以来净利润，来源：Wind、36氪整理

更悲观的是，今年一季度Meta营收指引疲软，公司预计营收可能同比增长仅3%，而在去年同期Facebbook营收增长了48%。

Even more pessimistic is the weakness of the meta harvest guidelines during the first quarter of this year, with the company predicting an increase of only 3 per cent over the same period, compared with an increase of 48 per cent in the Facebbook camp during the same period last year.

17年来，在社交领域，Facebook都是一台永不停止的用户增长机器，直至去年四季度，这台机器的增长神话戛然而止。

For 17 years, in the social sphere, Facebook has been an unstoppable user growth machine until the fourth quarter of last year, when the growth myth ended.

29.1亿的MAU，代表着Meta在去年四季度全球范围内环比失去了约50万用户，尽管数字不大，但对于用户驱动的互联网公司来说，不进则退。而从同比增速看，自2020年二季度起，DAU及MAU的同比增速已经开始下滑。

MAU of 29,100 million represents that Meta lost around half a million users globally in the last four quarters of the year, but for user-driven Internet companies, the same rate of growth has begun to decline since the second quarter of 2020.

2020年二季度，Facebook的DAU及MAU同比增速均为12%，但去年四季度，两项指标分别下降为5%、4%。

In the second quarter of 2020, Facebook DAU and MAU increased by 12 per cent on a year-on-year basis, but in the fourth quarter of last year the two indicators fell to 5 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively.

Meta近年DAU表现，数据来源：Meta财报、36氪整理

对社交产品而言，广告营收永远仰仗用户数量及活跃度，在用户增长乏力的大背景下，广告自然难以抬头。

For social products, advertising is always dependent on the number and dynamism of users, and it is naturally difficult to raise it against a backdrop of weak user growth.

Meta高管指出，在较高水平上，广告投放数量和定价方面的“逆风”对业绩造成严重影响。而广告营收，长期占据整体收入的九成以上。

At a higher level, the “reverse wind” in the volume and pricing of advertising has had a serious impact on performance, according to Méta executives, while advertising collection accounts for more than 90 per cent of total income over the long term.

“在广告数量方面，我们预计将继续面临来自两方面的不利因素，一是用户时间的竞争日益激烈；二是用户粘性向Reels等短视频方面转移，但其货币化能力低于Feed和Stories等更成熟的核心产品。”

“In terms of the number of advertisements, we are expected to continue to face disadvantages arising from the increasing competition for user time and the shift in user stickyness to short videos such as Reels, but less monetizing than more mature core products such as Feed and Stories.”

短视频产品对用户时间和广告商的争夺，显然在海内外均“风卷残云”。

Short video products compete for user time and advertisers, apparently “winding clouds” both within and outside the country.

cloudflar数据显示，TikTok去年2月中旬开始突现强势，首次取代谷歌。感恩节（11月25日）、黑色星期五（11月26日）等西方节日中，Tiktok的访问量也都是全球第一。9月份，Tiktok的月度活跃用户更是达到了10亿。

Cloudflar data show that TikTok began to emerge in power in mid-February last year, replacing Google for the first time. On Western holidays such as Thanksgiving (25 November), Black Friday (26 November), Tiktok also has the world’s first visits. In September, Tiktok’s monthly active users reached 1 billion.

TikTok对传统社交媒体的冲击无需赘述，为对抗TikTok、吸引年轻用户，扎克伯格曾透露：“Reels（短视频）、社区信息、商业、广告、隐私、AI及重要的元宇宙战略产品是我们在2022年的七个主要投资重点。鉴于TikTok大受消费者欢迎，本公司将侧重发展Instgram旗下Reels品牌”。

TikTok’s impact on traditional social media needs no elaboration. To counter TikTok and attract young users, Zuckerberg has revealed that “Reels (short video), community information, commerce, advertising, privacy, AI, and important meta-cosm strategic products were our seven major investment priorities in 2022. Given the popularity of TikTok among consumers, the company will focus on developing the Reels brand under Instgram.”

面对TikTok的强势攻击，同为社交媒体的Snapchat和Pinterest却交出了一份亮眼的业绩报告，这也使得二者股价被Meta带崩之后迅速得到了反弹。反差之下，Meta的现况十分尴尬。

In the face of the powerful attacks by TikTok, Snapchat and Pinterest, both social media, handed over a bright performance report, which also caused both shares to rebound quickly after meta crashed. By contrast, the situation in Meta was embarrassing.

此外，政策层面来看，反垄断一直令Meta压得喘不过气来。2月8日，英国高官警告，如果Meta不遵守新的《网络安全法》，扎克伯格可能会“蹲监狱”。有报道称，Meta方面表示，如果没有新的协议让公司可以转移数据，可能会影响到Facebook等产品在欧洲的运营。

Moreover, at the policy level, antimonopoly has been overwhelming Meta. On February 8, high-ranking British officials warned that Zuckerberg might be “prisoned” if Meta did not comply with the new Cyber Security Act. According to reports, Meta’s side said that without a new agreement allowing companies to transfer data, it could affect the operation of products like Facebook in Europe.

北美大本营外，欧洲市场一直是Meta的重要商业阵地。截至去年12月31日，从Meta主营业务的地区构成分析，美国占营收41.02%、欧洲占营收24.64%，亚太地区占营收22.67%。抛弃欧洲，对Meta而言只能是“自损八百”乃至更甚。

As of 31 December last year, the United States accounted for 41.02% of the revenues, Europe 24.64%, and Asia and the Pacific 22.67%. Abandoning Europe can only be “eight hundred” or even worse.

尽管Facebook此后澄清没有撤出欧洲的意图，但利空消息已经导致Meta周一收盘跌超5%，市值持续蒸发。

Although Facebook has since clarified that there was no intention to withdraw from Europe, news has led to a fall of over 5 per cent by Meta on Monday and continued evaporation of market value.

与此同时，和Meta并称为在线广告双巨头的谷歌却迎来了一波利好。

At the same time, Google with Meta, also known as the two giants of online advertising, has come to a good conclusion.

受到苹果去年4月推出隐私政策的困扰，Meta首席财务官Dave Wehner近日表示，该公司预计苹果公司的政策将使其2022财年的销售额损失超过100亿美元。另一方面，谷歌的搜索广告，对在iOS设备上收集个人数据的依赖程度较低，因此受iOS隐私政策的影响较小。因此，广告商正将更多的预算投向谷歌。

Following Apple’s introduction of privacy policy last April, Meta’s Chief Financial Officer, Dave Wehner, recently stated that the company expected Apple’s policy to lose more than $10 billion in sales for the 2022 fiscal year. Google’s search advertising, on the other hand, is less dependent on the collection of personal data on iOS devices, and therefore less influenced by iOS’ privacy policy.

David Wehner指出，与Meta的广告平台相比，谷歌用于衡量和优化目标的第三方数据可能要多得多，而且，谷歌与苹果公司达成合作，前者将成为Safari浏览器的默认搜索引擎，这意味着谷歌的搜索广告将出现在更多地方，并吸收更多有用数据。

David Wehner noted that Google may have much more third-party data for measuring and optimizing targets than Meta's advertising platform, and that Google and Apple have partnered to become the default search engine for the Safari browser, meaning that Google's search advertisements will appear in more places and absorb more useful data.

Meta广告收入占比，数据来源：Wind、36氪整理

元宇宙泡沫破灭

/strang'

尽管扎克伯格曾就“元宇宙”的盈利能力打过预防针，表示“至少在未来三年，Meta元宇宙业务盈利的可能性都非常小”，但财报一出，元宇宙的烧钱能力依旧超出想象。

Although Zuckerberg used to use a precautionary needle on the profitability of the “won cosmos”, saying that “in the next three years at least, the potential for profit in the Meta dollar cosmopolitan business is very small”, the wealth of the Won cosmos remains beyond imagination.

数据显示，2019至2021年，Reality Labs业务的运营亏损分别为45.03亿美元、66.23亿美元、101.93亿美元，三年亏损200多亿美元，且亏损仍在持续扩大。

The data show that between 2019 and 2021, the operations of Reality Labs suffered operating losses of $4,503 million, $6,623 million and $10,193 million, respectively, representing a loss of more than $20 billion over three years, and the deficit continued to grow.

虽然Reality Labs去年四季度收入8.77亿美元，同比增长22.3%，环比增长57.2%，增速较快，但依旧只占整体营收的2.6%。

Although Reality Labs earned $877 million last quarter, an increase of 22.3 per cent over the previous quarter, and ring growth of 57.2 per cent at a faster rate, it still accounts for only 2.6 per cent of the total.

Rreality Labs主要由硬件Quest 2及软件Horizon带动增长。其中，VR硬件，在“元宇宙”这一锅新老技术乱炖中，是目前最为市场吹捧、商业化表现也较好的板块。而Facebook收购的Oculus更是市面上销量最好的设备厂商。

Rreality Labs is driven by hardware Quest 2 and software Horizon. Among these, VR hardware, in the pan-cosmos, is currently the most popular and commercialized piece of equipment.

在Steam平台的硬件及软件调查中，VR头显的用户中使用Oculus Quest 2占去了超过三分之一。但与此同时要知道的是，VR硬件渗透率在去年年底仅为1.84%，且这一数字较2020年还有所下降。

In the hardware and software survey of the Steam platform, VR-led users used Oculus Quest 2 to more than a third. But at the same time, the VR hardware penetration rate was only 1.84 per cent at the end of last year, and this figure was lower than in 2020.

也就是说，使用VR头显的依旧是小众群体，在没有将潜在受众发展为VR用户之前，再高的市占率也只是“金玉其外”。

In other words, the use of VRs continues to manifest itself as a small group, and the higher rate of urban ownership is simply “the outside of the gold” before the potential audience is developed as a VR user.

此外，优质VR内容稀缺，也拖慢了“元宇宙”生态的建立进程。开发成本较高和用户数量较少让优质VR内容难以回本，更长的回本周期也削弱了VR内容开发者的开发热情。

Moreover, the scarcity of quality VR content slows down the process of creating meta-cosm ecology. The high cost of development and the small number of users make it difficult to return to quality VR content, and the longer recovery cycle weakens the development enthusiasm of VR content developers.

今年7月，Steam平台应用总量为99105款，其中支持VR的内容为5941款，占比仅不到6%。即便是头部厂商，内容上也没有那么得心应手——Oculus曾砸下大笔资金收买多家内容团队，但Oculus Quest 2目前拿的出手的游戏也只有一款《Beat Saber》。

In July of this year, the Steam platform had a total of 99105 applications, of which 5941, or less than 6%, were in support of VRs. Even head manufacturers, the content was less responsive – Oculus had thrown down a lot of money to buy many content teams, but Oculus Quest 2 currently had only one game at hand.

实际上，2014年就被收购的Oculus，在很长一段时间内，都曾是Facebook的“鸡肋”。2014年高价收购后，VR产业第一次泡沫破灭，市场在后面六年里几乎没有增长，Oculus的两个核心创始人也相继离职。

Indeed, Oculus, which was acquired in 2014, has been Facebook's “kids” for a long time. After the high-priced acquisitions in 2014, the VR industry collapsed for the first time, the market barely grew in the next six years, and two of Oculus' core founders left.

直到去年年末，在扎克伯格的亲自操刀和大力补贴下，Oculus的VR眼镜销量才达到全年1000万台。

It was not until late last year that the VR glasses of Oculus were sold to 10 million units throughout the year, with a personal knife and a huge subsidy from Zuckerberg.

但补贴无法长久，自我造血能力永远是行业有序扩张的前提。扎克伯格预计今年Oculus实现扭亏为盈，只不过，在公司股价全面崩盘、投资者看破“元宇宙”谎言之时，这一目标也显得愈发无力。

But subsidies are not sustainable, and self-help is always a prerequisite for an orderly expansion of the industry. Zuckerberg expects Oculus to achieve a break-down this year, although this goal is becoming increasingly weak when corporate stock prices collapse all over the world, and investors break through the “Men Universe” lie.

在Meta财报暴雷当天，元宇宙第一股Roblox也跳空下跌8.31%，而A股“元宇宙”概念则在春节前就开始普遍回调，中青宝等元宇宙概念公司春节后也已较高点出现超过3成跌幅。几番“大跃进”之后，元宇宙的泡沫已经濒临破灭。

On the day of the Meta Treasure, Roblox, the first share of the Yuan cosmos, also jumped by 8.31%, while the A share of the “Main cosmos” concept began to be widely echoed before the Spring Festival, with more than a three-fold drop at the higher end of the Yuan cosmos concept after the Spring Festival. After a few major leaps, the bubbles in the Yuan cosmos are on the verge of collapse.

不少掘金“元宇宙”的人，将当下阶段同2000年左右的互联网相比，因此，Meta的危机，也就不再仅仅是“元宇宙”危机，连同国内正遭遇瓶颈和重压的互联网巨头一起，2000年科技行业泡沫破灭再次上演。

The crisis in Meta is no longer just a “megasmos” crisis, as well as the collapse of the technological bubble in 2000 along with the Internet giants, who are experiencing bottlenecks and strains in the country.

Absolute Strategy Research分析师Ian Harnett观点更为直接 ，他认为Meta的本质问题在于其估值。

Absolute Strategy Research analyst Ian Harnett's point of view is more direct and argues that the essence of Meta's problem lies in its valuation.

从基本面来看，高估值的科技股一般依赖融资环境。以往的低利率环境里，科技股的高增长是合理的，但当利率抬升后，一旦融资出现问题，对于科技属性大于科技力的公司而言，市场信心很容易发生动摇。

On the fundamentals, high-valued science and technology units generally rely on the financing environment. In the past low-interest-rate environment, high growth in science and technology is reasonable, but when interest rates rise, when financing problems arise, market confidence is easily shaken for companies with more technological attributes than technology.

考虑到华尔街对财报业绩的重视程度，即使“财大气粗”的Meta不怕“烧钱”，在实现真正的技术突破之前，投资者们的急切心理很可能促使其转向其他投资标的的怀抱。

Given the importance that Wall Street places on financial reporting performance, even if the “rich” Meta is not afraid of “burning money”, investors’ eagerness is likely to push them towards other investment targets before a real technological breakthrough can be achieved.

而在“元宇宙”未来长时间难兑现的情况下，Facebook和Instagram应用程序及占营收绝对大头的核心广告收入、苹果隐私问题、短视频产品变现等仍是短期内投资者更关注的焦点。

In the face of the long-term unsatisfied future of the Woncosmos, Facebook and Instagram applications, as well as core advertising revenues, apple privacy issues, and the realization of short video products, continue to be the focus of increased attention by investors in the short term.