华夏时报(www.chinatimes.net.cn)记者 王永菲 冉学东 北京报道
Washington Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn), journalist Wang Yongfei, Beijing.
5月12日上午,部署在以太坊区块链上的Dapp项目Yearn.finance代币YFI暴力拉升至93,435.53美元,近三天拉升近60%,成为加密货币中单价最高的币种,上涨金额最高达到38000美元。
On the morning of 12 May, the Dapp project Yern.finance, which was deployed on the Ether block chain, escalated to US$ 93,435.53 in the form of YFI violence, nearly 60 per cent in the last three days and became the currency with the highest unit value of the encrypted currency, up to US$ 38,000.
截至发文,以太坊价格也达到4200美元,目前以太坊市值超过5000亿美元,一路超过摩根大通、Visa,而动物代币如狗狗币,柴犬币等最近大热的百倍币的上涨逻辑也让人直呼看不懂,让投资者似雾里看花。
As of the date of the communication, the price of Etheria also stood at $4,200, with a market value of over $500 billion and more than Morgan Chase and Visa all the way, while the logic of the recent 100-fold rise in the heat of animal tokens, such as puppies, was hard to understand, making investors look like flowers.
不同币种暴涨背后有不同的逻辑,对加密市场的影响也不尽相同。
There are different logic behind the surge in different currencies and the impact on the encryption market is different.
YFI暴涨超越比特币
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}YFI skyrocketed over Bitcoin
从上线以来,YFI就备受关注,以价格超过比特币被大众所熟知。2021年3月,灰度也将YFI加入了其加密信托资产列表。
In March 2021, the Grayscale added YFI to its list of encrypted trust assets.
截至发文,YFI现回落至83081.93美元/枚,近24小时涨幅24%;比特币现报57205美元/枚,近24小时涨幅2.98%。
As of the date of the communication, YFI had returned to $83081.93, an increase of 24 per cent over the 24-hour period; Bitcoin now reported $57,205, an increase of 2.98 per cent over the 24-hour period.
“Yearn Finance是DeFi应用的聚合器板块龙头,通过精准匹配流动性为用户提供高收益率的资金池,并自动优化投资组合,其治理代币YFI一直受到用户的关注增持。目前来看,近期的暴涨可能源于牛市背景下,该项目锁仓量持续增长,截至发文已增长至43.47亿美元,乐观效应扩展。尤其到5月10日,YFI价格再次超越BTC后,这种看涨共识得到进一步加强。”贝宝金融研究员皮特向本报记者表示。
“Yarn Finance, the aggregator of DeFi applications, provides users with a pool of high returns through precision matching liquidity, and automatically optimizes the portfolio, and its governance agent YFI has been receiving increased attention from users. The recent surge may now be due to the cattle market context, where the project’s lock-ups have continued to grow steadily, reaching $4,347 million as a result of the expansion of optimism.
据欧科云链OKLink数据显示,Purpose推出的以太坊ETF持仓量已经超过3.3万枚ETH,以太坊相关证券产品的的市值也达到54.01亿美元。
According to the OkLink data of the Ocowin chain, the Ethermium ETF, launched by Purpose, already holds more than 33,000 ETHs, and the market value of Ether-related securities products also amounts to $5,401 million.
欧科云链高级研究员Eddie向指出:“以太坊本身近期受到海外机构的追捧,以太坊的走强也会给YFI这类头部DeFi项目带来利好的预期。自身产品上新叠加以太坊走强或许是YFI这一轮走强背后的原因。”
Eddie, a senior researcher from the Ocowin chain, said: "Ethio is a recent fan of overseas institutions, and the strongness of Ethio also gives good expectations for projects like the YFI's head DeFi project. It may be the reason why the YFI's new product is folded to the top."
Eddie向本报记者强调,YFI作为以太坊上DeFi生态中理财协议的头号选手,某种意义上整个DeFi生态的风向标之一。YFI的核心开发者在近期推出拆分YFI代币的新项目,这一项目得到了包括Sushiswap创始人在内,DeFi圈内头部玩家的认可和看好,这可能是近期消息层面YFI利好的主要原因。
Eddie stressed to this newspaper that YFI, as the leading player in the DeFi Ecoeconomy agreement in the Taikum, is one of the wind signs of the whole DeFi ecology in a sense. The YFI core developers recently launched a new project to split the YFI tokens, which has been endorsed and viewed by top players in the DeFi circle, including the founder of Sushiswap, and may be the main reason for the recent news level of YFI success.
动物代币暴涨也会暴跌
可以说,狗狗币火出圈外,主要还是由于马斯克的推动。马斯克一句话就能让狗狗币暴涨暴跌。马斯克上节目表示狗狗币是骗局,立马出现暴跌;马斯克表示要将狗狗币带上月球,狗狗币就会应声大涨;马斯克近日还发起了是否支持使用狗狗币购买特斯拉的投票,截至目前投票结果显示,支持者占据70%以上。
It can be said that dog coins go out of the circle, mainly because of Mask’s push. Mask’s words can cause the doggies to go up and down. Mask’s show shows that the doggies are a scam, and the horses are going down; Mask’s announcement that if they take the doggies to the moon, the doggies will rise; and Mask’s recent vote on whether to support the use of the doggies to buy Tesla, which, as far as the results are concerned, stands at more than 70 per cent.
皮特介绍,加密行情近日出现了“疯狂动物城”的现象,以狗狗币为领涨先锋,近一个月涨幅达到近10倍,各类动物币如柴犬币(SHIB)、秋田犬币(AKITA)、猪猪币(PIGGY)等纷纷开始拉涨模式。这波山寨币“非理性繁荣”部分是由于牛市背景下的资金溢出效应,以及社区经济的崛起。
According to Peter, the phenomenon of “crazy animal cities” has emerged in recent days, with dog coins taking the lead, which have increased almost 10 times in the past month, and animal coins such as SHIB, Akita, and PIGGY, which are beginning to rise. Part of this “irrational boom” is due to financial spillovers in the context of the cattle market, as well as to the rise of the community economy.
Eddie表示:“狗狗币在遇到马斯克并开启上涨模式前,其实经历了数年的横盘。而近期各种动物币的疯狂,可能意味着错过狗狗币的投资者和背后的机构另起炉灶,想要复制狗狗币的成功。 ”
Eddie says: “The dog coins have gone through years before they met Mask and started rising patterns. And the madness of recent animal coins may mean that the investors and the institutions behind them miss the dog coin and try to replicate the dog coin’s success.”
以近期较为火热的柴犬币(SHIBA INU)为例,通过OKLink区块链浏览器我们可以看到,在去年7月31日,柴犬币的智能合约被创建,此后一直该币种的链上交易活动其实寥寥无几。直到今年1月30日,SHIBA代币的交易活动开始出现第一次大幅增长,这一时间节点也是马斯克在今年第一次为狗狗币喊单的时间。此后SHIBA的几次链上交易活动高峰,也和狗狗币的暴涨时间节点高度吻合,Eddie进一步向本报记者解释道。
In the case of the recently hot SHIBA INU, we can see through the OKLink block chain browser that on July 31, last year, a smart contract was created, and since then there has been very little trading on the chain. Until January 30, there was a first significant increase in SHIBA token trading, a time point that was also the first time that Mask called for a dog price this year.
皮特指出,从这些动物币本身来看,此番暴涨其实与技术创新的关系不大,更多的来自社区流量的营销推动。以狗狗币为例,Dogecoin已经成为美国消费文化、慈善文化的“吉祥物”,人们利用狗狗币作为对优质内容的激励打赏。在WSB大战华尔街后,去中心化和反精英化的社区力量开始转向亲民低价的狗狗币,马斯克等公众人物以及Wall Street Bets、SatoshiStreetBets等组织则对本波动物币狂涨起到了推波助澜的作用。
Peter points out that, in the light of these animal coins, the surge is not necessarily related to technological innovation, but is driven more by the marketing of community flows. For example, Dogecoin has become a “mascot” of America’s consumer culture, charity culture, and people use it as an incentive for quality content.
对于这些动物代币的后市行情,皮特认为,从市场整体来看,加密货币牛市发展至今,BTC市值超过一万亿美元之后体量已经非常巨大,最近不断减少的成交量,也表明资金开始转向其它低价币,试图拉升获取跑赢BTC的超额收益。此时舆论发酵热点集中在动物币上,恰好为这些资金提供了炒作目标。当然,由于动物币涨跌较快、波动更大,稳健投资者以观望为主,毕竟浓烈情绪化推动的暴涨,也往往伴随着激情退潮后的快速暴跌。
With regard to the post-market dynamics of these animal tokens, Peter argues that the market as a whole, where the market has grown, the market value of the crypto-currency cow market has so far been very large after a trillion dollars, and that the recent decline in BTC's turnover suggests that the funds have started to shift to other low-value currencies, trying to boost them to win over the BTC. At a time when public opinion is concentrated on the animal coins, this is precisely the target for the funds.
Eddie认为市场对于动物币的热捧更多是短时的情绪堆砌,甚至有一些此前“游戏驿站事件”的味道。虽然柴犬币的官网也表示之后会在DeFi、NFT等领域发力,但项目本身基本面较为单薄,散户投资者如果投资此类资产,需要做好暴涨暴跌的心理预期。
Eddie believes that the market’s popularity of animal coins is more of a short-term emotional build-up, or even the smell of a previous “play-station event.” While the network of officials of the firewood can say that they will later be active in areas such as DeFi, NFT, etc., the project itself is thinner, and the diaspora investors need to anticipate a surge or collapse if they invest in such assets.
老牌山寨币暴涨预示牛市到了中期
"Strong" is a sign that the bull market is in the middle of the day.
以太坊、EOS、ETC、BCH接连突破新高,比特币的占比也因此出现了下降,从BTC的市值从69%跌至44%,市值占比持续下滑。
Ether, EOS, ETC, and BCH have made new breakthroughs, resulting in a decline in Bitcoin's share, from 69 per cent to 44 per cent of BTC's market value, which continues to decline.
Eddie认为,老牌山寨币开启集体上行的模式,可能意味着加密货币市场的周期性牛市进入到中期阶段。在这一阶段,比特币的市值占整个加密货币市场市值的比重会降低,以太坊和老牌山寨币会承接到从比特币溢出的资金,从而开启上涨行情。少数山寨币甚至会创下新高,更多的山寨则可能在拉升后回到原点,并被新的项目取代。这种新老项目的交替在每一轮加密货币的牛熊洗牌中都会出现。
In Eddie’s view, an up-to-go model of the old mountain coin may mean that the cyclical cow market in the crypto-currency market is moving into the medium term. At this stage, the market value of Bitcoin as a market value for the entire crypto-currency market will be reduced, and the ether and old mountain coins will receive the extra money from the bitcoin, thus opening up the upturn.
而皮特指出,老牌山寨币大涨,可能因为BTC多次冲击6万美元未果,市场获利抛售情绪蔓延,对市值已经非常大的BTC来说,资金显然无法像之前那样更容易推升获利。资金开始转向其它价格较低、但有一定共识的老牌山寨币,这给了它们补涨的基础;老牌山寨币的上涨,除了资金偏好敞口加大之外,也有自身基本面、消息面的缘故。例如ETC受到DCG老板Barry Silbert推特助力,同时也得益于ETH2.0的提前发酵,近期持续上涨。BCH则受到侧链项目SmartBCH推进的利好,市值重回前十。
Peter pointed out, however, that the rise in the old mountain coins may be due to the failure of BTC to hit $60,000 several times and the spread of market profit-making sentiment, which is clearly not as easy to boost for BTC, which already has a very large market value. The funds began to shift to other low-priced but somewhat consensual old mountain coins, which provided the basis for their build-up; the rise in the old mountain coins had its own basics and sources of information, in addition to the increased openness of the money. For example, the ETC received Twitter help from DCG boss Barry Silbert, and also benefited from early fermentation from ETH 2.0, which continued to rise in the near future.
市场资金由比特币转向其它利好的老牌山寨币,市场迎来了Altcoin Season,这种板块轮动的表现在上一次牛市中也是类似的。
Market funds have shifted from bitcoin to other good old mountain mounds, and the market has ushered in Altcoin Season, a pattern similar to that of the last cattle market.
不过,皮特警告称,目前的行情整体仍处于牛市阶段,但是,也需要关注风险。龙头BTC近期多次冲击6万美元失败,处于宽幅调整态势;BTC与ETH联动性减弱,ETH保持相对强势,连创新高,目前已经突破4千美元。今年以来ETH的累计收益超越BTC,这可能是资金开始获利转移所致;另外值得一提的是,除了机构用户主推的主流币开始出现分化之外,公众人物、意见领袖以及社区也开始对币价产生积极影响,包括DCG老板Barry Silbert狂推ETC、特斯拉创始人马斯克喊单Dogecoin等,这些都对币价产生的助涨的作用。
Pete warned, however, that the current business as a whole is still in the cattle market, but that risks need to be addressed. The leader BTC has recently failed several times to hit $60,000 and is in a broad-banded adjustment; the BTC and ETH have weakened, the ETH have remained relatively strong and innovative, and have now made a breakthrough of $4,000. The cumulative gains of the ETH since this year have exceeded the BTC, probably as a result of the transfer of the money; and it is worth mentioning that, in addition to the split that has begun to take place in the mainstream currency, public figures, opinion leaders, and communities have also begun to have a positive impact on currency prices, including DCG's boss Barry Silbert, the founder of Tesla, and others, who are pushing the ETC and others, all of which are contributing to the currency price increase.
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