本文来源于阮一峰的博客。
Source: .
这两周，比特币（bitcoin）的价格大幅上涨，我也凑热闹关注了一阵。
During these two weeks, the price of bitcoin and I was very concerned about it.
比特币所知甚少，从未参与过生产/交易，对它的了解仅限于新闻报道和维基百科，但我有一些不成熟的想法。
First of all, I know very little about bitcoin and have never been involved in production/trading, but only in journalism and Wikipedia, but I have some premature ideas.
看着比特币的价格节节上升，我就在想，它有什么用？
Looking at the price of bitcoin up, I was wondering, what's the use of it?
想来想去，我突然悟到，比特币的最佳用途是转移资产！
I suddenly realized that the best use of Bitcoin was to transfer assets!
假设我有100万人民币，需要转移到美国，比特币是最方便的方法。我在国内市场上用人民币买入比特币，然后立刻转手在美国市场上卖出，将所得的美元转入美国银行账户，就一切OK了。
Assuming that I have 1 million yuan and need to be transferred to the United States, Bitcoin is the easiest way to do so. I buy bitcoin in the domestic market and sell it on the United States market immediately, and then transfer the dollars from it to the United States bank account.
整个过程只要点几下鼠标就行了，非常方便快捷，不需要任何其他手续或证明文件。而且，比特币是24小时连续交易，不要手续费，成本几乎为零。保密性也非常好，中国政府和美国政府都不会察觉这笔交易，更不要提追踪了。
The whole process is done with a few clicks, which is easy and fast, without any other formalities or supporting documents. Moreover, Bitcoin is a 24-hour transaction, free of charge, at virtually no cost.
唯一的风险是，持仓期间价格下跌。但要是买入后立即抛出，价格波动幅度应该不会太大。另外，比特币的价格是全球统一的，中国市场和美国市场几乎没有价差，不用担心汇兑风险。
The only risk is that prices will fall during the storage period. If they are to be thrown out immediately after buying, the price volatility should not be too large.
虽然还没有试验过，但是我越想越觉得，这种转移资金的方法可行。于是，我马上想到第二个问题，如果比特币真的成为资金转移的首选渠道，会发生什么结果？
Although it hasn't been tested yet, the more I think it's possible to transfer money . So, I think of the second question, what happens if Bitcoin really becomes the preferred channel for money transfers?
它会供不应求！每个人都想买入，所以价格还会不断上涨。比特币总共只有2100万个，它的价格最后很可能会是天价。
Everyone wants to buy , so prices will continue to rise. Bitcoin totals only 21 million, and the price is likely to be in the end.
但是，我也意识到，任何数字资产其实都可以充当这种高效、快速、低成本的交易中介，只要它被广为接受，且有足够的市场容量和流动性。比特币在这方面只不过反映了数字货币的优势，只是一个代表而已。说实话，如果腾讯公司有足够的公信力，我觉得Q币也能起到比特币的作用。
But I also realize that any digital asset can actually act as an efficient, fast, low-cost broker, provided it is widely accepted and has sufficient market capacity and liquidity. Bitcoin only reflects the advantage of digital currency, but only represents it. To be honest, if the telecommunications company has sufficient credibility, I think can also act as a bitcoin.
当然，腾讯公司或者任何其他商业公司，都很难让人完全信任，所以Q币取代不了比特币。分布式、不受任何机构或个人控制，正是比特币的一大卖点。
Of course, Queens cannot replace Bitcoins, which is very difficult to trust completely, either by tether companies or by any other commercial company. The distribution, by no agency or by any person, is one of the biggest selling points in Bitcoins.
比特币的真正缺点，我现在只想到一个，这也是我想问的第三个问题。如果比特币的价格不断上涨，意味着什么？
The only thing I can think of now is the true weakness of bitcoin, which is the third question I want to ask. What does it mean if bitcoin prices keep rising?
很简单，没有人会使用比特币！因为持有者只要一直持有，就能享受价格的不断上涨。在比特币的世界，根本不会发生通货膨胀，只会发生通货紧缩。今天一个西瓜是1比特币，明天可能是0.5比特币，一年以后也许会到0.05比特币。只要你一直持有，它的购买力就在不断增加，所以你不会使用/出售比特币，只会囤积它。另一方面，对生产者来说，通货紧缩就是噩梦，它意味着同样的产量换回的货币越来越少。
It is simple that no one uses bitcoin. Because the holder can enjoy price increases as long as it is held. In the world of bitcoin, inflation does not occur at all, and deflation only occurs. Today, a watermelon is a bitcoin, possibly 0.5 bitcoins tomorrow, and perhaps 0.05 bitcoins a year later. As long as you hold it, its purchasing power is increasing, so you will not use/sell bitcoins, but simply hoard them.
因此，我得到了一个悖论：比特币的用途是货币，但是它不可能当作货币用。
So I got a paradox: Bitcoin is for money, but it can't be used as a currency.
如果比特币能够克服这个缺点，就好了。如果发行量能够在2100万的基础上，每年固定增加一个百分比（比如5%），那我就会比较肯定，它就是未来人类社会的货币。
It would be better if Bitcoin could overcome that shortcoming. If distribution could increase by a fixed percentage (e.g., 5 per cent) per year over 21 million, then I would be more sure that it was the currency of the future human society.
不过，谁也没有说比特币是完美无缺的，本质上它只是一种分布式算法，完全可能做出改进，也许不久以后就会有人提出比特币 2.0算法，或者其他数字货币的算法。事实上，我认为最大风险来自这里。
But no one has said that bitcoin is perfect, that it is essentially a distributed algorithm, that it is entirely possible to make improvements, and that perhaps a bitcoin 2.0 or other digital currency algorithm will come up soon. In fact, I think the greatest risk is here.
再次声明，我没研究过比特币协议，也没有实际操作过。上面只是我的一点臆测，很可能没有考虑周全，结论也可能是错的，希望与大家共同探讨。
Again, I did not study bitcoin, nor did I actually do it. It is just an assumption that may not be taken fully into account, and the conclusions may be wrong, and I would like to share them with you.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论