比特币BTC价格在九月下跌 1.5% 影响比特币价格的五个潜在触发因素

据鑫链财经报道（xinchaincaijing.com），BTC/USD在2022年9月下跌1.5%，虽然跌幅不大，但有很多潜在的催化剂即将出现。也就是说，最近几周，宏观比特币BTC价格触底信号不断涌现。鑫链财经小编研究了未来一周比特币价格的五个潜在触发因素，其中20，000美元是主要焦点。

The Xinchaincaijing.com) reported that BTC/USD had fallen by 1.5% in September 2022, although the drop was small, but that there were many potential catalysts that were about to emerge. That is, in the last few weeks, the macrobitcoin BTC prices have sprung up.

一、BTC刚刚以每周20,000美元的价格收盘

比特币多头本周末过得很轻松，因为缺乏波动性导致两天波动在20,000美元左右。

bitcoin had an easy weekend because lack of volatility caused two days to fluctuate at around $20,000.

缺乏整体方向意味着现有的价格预测保持不变，甚至每周收盘价本身也继续让市场猜测。

The lack of an overall direction means that existing price projections remain unchanged and even weekly round-ups themselves continue to allow markets to guess.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro和TradingView的数据显示，Bitstamp的价格几乎正好是20,000美元，随后在新一周的前几个小时出现价格下行压力。

Cointegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data show that Bitstamp prices are almost exactly $20,000, followed by downward pressure on prices a few hours before the new week.

交易员已经预计将重新测试接近6月的17,600美元的较低水平，但没有理由改变他们的看法。Crypto的受欢迎交易员Il Capo重申了将空头挤压至23,000美元的计划，随后以16,000美元作为潜在底价进行逆转。

traders are expected to retest the lower level of $17,600 close to June, but there is no reason to change their view. Crypto's popular trader, Il Capo, reiterated his plan to squeeze the empty head to $23,000, and then reverse it with $16,000 as a potential floor price.

与此同时，交易员Cheds证实，4小时图在从区间低点反弹至每周收盘后“继续区间波动”。

At the same time, trader Cheds confirmed that the four-hour map “continues to be volatile” after a low rebound from the area to the weekly closing.

在他的最新更新中，TMV Crypto揭示了同一时间范围内的下行偏见，突出了相对强度指数(RSI)数据。他写道“H4 RSI目前看跌。失去19700美元将需要$btc扫荡8月低点并接近18777年的7月低点。”

In his latest update, TMV Crypto revealed downward bias within the same time frame, highlighting the relative intensity index (RSI) data. He wrote, "H4 RSI is currently looking down. Losing $19,700 will require $btc to sweep down the August low and close to the July low of 18777."

与此同时，来自链上分析资源Material Indicators的数据显示，多头在收盘时以20,000美元的价格“战斗”，币安订单簿的下方立即出现了新的出价支持。

In parallel, data from chain-based analytical resources, Material Industries, show that many of them are “combats” at $20,000 when they close, and that new bids are immediately available at the bottom of the currency book of orders.

二、欧洲能源危机惊吓宏观阶段

在宏观市场上，美联储本周将退居二线，重要的经济数据将于9月13日以8月份消费者价格指数(CPI)的形式发布。然而，风险资产交易者几乎没有机会休息，因为欧洲的事件已经为波动提供了新的舞台。

In the macro market, the Fed will be on the second line this week, and important economic data will be released on September 13 in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August. However, there is little opportunity for risk asset traders to rest, as events in Europe have provided a new stage for volatility.

截至9月5日，欧元兑美元汇率跌至2002年9月以来的最低水平，跌破0.99美元

这种疲软是在能源市场不稳定的背景下出现的。俄罗斯原定于周末重新开放其北溪1号天然气管道，但由于维护问题突然改变了路线，天然气供应现在将无限期暂停。

此前有消息称，欧盟计划根据G7对俄罗斯能源实施价格上限，对此俄罗斯威胁要停止所有能源进口。结果，随着本周的开始，天然气市场再次飙升，此前曾从历史高位暴跌。

As previously reported, the EU plans to impose a price cap on Russian energy based on G7 and Russia threatens to stop all energy imports. As a result, the gas market rose again with the beginning of this week, before falling sharply from historical heights.

对于衍生品巨头BitMEX的前首席执行官Arthur Hayes来说，欧元的唯一出路可能就是下跌。

The only way out of the euro could be for the former CEO of the derivative giant BitMEX, Arthur Hayes.

海耶斯在今年早些时候的一篇博客文章中重申了之前的假设，称欧元在周末进入了“厄运循环”。

Hayes reiterated in a blog article earlier this year that the euro entered the cycle of bad luck on weekends.

这就是危机的严重程度，即使是Stock-to-Flow比特币价格模型的创建者PlanB，也建议买入逢低买入机会应该仅次于基本需求——即使BTC/USD接近两年低点。

This is the severity of the crisis, and even PlanB, the founder of the Stock-to-Flow bitcoin price model, suggests that buying low buy-in opportunities should be second only to basic needs - even if BTC/USD is close to two years low.

三、美元强势突破两年高位

与上周一样，加密货币和风险资产的持久逆风更广泛地以美元走强的形式继续存在。

美元指数(DXY)形成了在2022年全年创下20年高点的传统，9月也不例外。

dollar index (DXY) developed a 20-year-old tradition in 2022, with no exception for September.

话虽如此，本周DXY自2002年6月以来首次突破110，而欧元只是其猖獗牛市造成的多个法定货币损失之一。

四、Hodlers继续获得力量

在经典的熊市风格中，长期持有者(LTH)正努力应对BTC价格风暴，并在此过程中创造当地记录。本周来自链上分析公司Glassnode的数据证实，即使是一年前最后一次购买的硬币也越来越处于休眠状态。

In the classic bear market style, long-term holders (LTH) are trying to cope with BTC price storms and create local records in the process. Data from the chain analysis company Glasnode this week confirm that even the last coin purchased a year ago is increasingly dormant.

买家尽管有未实现的损失，但拒绝投降。

buyer refuses to surrender despite unrealized losses.

因此，现在在其钱包中静止一年或更长时间的BTC供应百分比达到了65.78%的历史新高。

Thus, the percentage of BTC supplies in its wallet that remains static for one year or more now reaches 65.78% of historical highs.

Glassnode还显示，到2022年，一年或更长时间的持仓轨迹明显变陡，表明大多数LTH的决心增强。与此同时，一个补充指标，即被持有或以其他方式切断整体流通的代币数量，达到了近两年来的最高水平。

Glassnode also shows that by 2022, the stubble trajectory of a year or more shows an increase in the resolve of most LTHs. At the same time, a supplementary indicator, the number of coins held or otherwise cut off from the overall circulation, has reached its highest level in the last two years.

持有或丢失的代币现在总计7,464,791 BTC。

The number of currency held or lost now totals 7,464,791 BTC.

上周，同行监测资源Whalemap指出，比特币现货价格已低于一到两年硬币的总实现价格。

“在BTC的历史上，只有3次低于1-2年持有人的实际价格。现在是第三次了，”Whalemap团队评论道。已实现价格是指特定BTC群组最后一次移动的总价格。比特币的综合实际价格目前约为21,600美元。

"In the history of BTC, only three times were below the actual price of the holder for 1-2 years. This is the third time." Whalemap team comment. The realized price is the total price of the last movement of a particular group of BTCs. Bitcoin's combined real price is now about US$ 21,600.

五、情绪回到六周低点

总体而言，加密市场似乎已经完全回到了从7月下半月开始的看涨阶段。

In general, the encryption market seems to have returned completely to the upward phase that began in the second half of July.

相加密恐惧与贪婪指数一如既往地体现了这一点，该指数是经典的情绪指标，周末仅达到20/100。现在坚定地回到“极度恐惧”区域，仅在过去三周内，该指数就下跌了一半以上，表明市场参与者正在经历的突然冷落的规模。

encrypted fear and greed index, a classic emotional indicator, reached only 20/100 on weekends. Now firmly back to the “extreme fear” area, the index has fallen by more than half in the last three weeks alone, indicating the scale of the sudden desolation that market participants are experiencing.

上一次出现20/100是在7月18日。与此同时，在上个月底，PlanB根据现货价格与实际价格之间的距离，将当前的情绪描述为历史上令人恐惧的情绪。

the last time it appeared was on July 18th. Meanwhile, at the end of last month, PlanB described the current mood as fearsome in history, based on the distance between spot prices and actual prices.

结尾

比特币(BTC)从9月的第二周开始，仍然试图巩固20，000美元作为支撑，因为空头获得了控制权。预期已经倾向于本月进一步下跌，也就是所谓的“Septembear”现象，到目前为止，9月份看到BTC价格的下跌，没有什么证据表明今年会有什么不同。

BTC, starting in the second week of September, still trying to consolidate $20,000 to support it, as it gained control over the void. It is expected that it will be inclined to fall further this month, the so-called “Septembaar” phenomenon, and so far in September, seeing BTC prices fall, there is little evidence that this year will be different.