比特币价格逼近历史最高纪录，或继续看涨丨看天下

比特币再度上涨冲刺历史最高纪录。

Bitcoin has once again risen to the highest level in history.

3月5日上午，比特币冲破6.8万美元，最近24小时上涨约6800美元，日内涨近9%，距历史最高纪录仅1000美元。

On the morning of 5 March, Bitcoin broke down $68,000, rising by approximately $6,800 in the last 24 hours, nearly 9 per cent per day, just over $1,000 from its highest record.

据了解，比特币历史最高点发生在2021年11月10日，当时逼近6.9万美元。

It is understood that the historic peak of Bitcoin occurred on 10 November 2021, when it approached $69,000.

实际上，比特币近期行情一路上扬。在过去的两月里，除了8个交易日外，比特币的价格在所有交易日都实现了上涨。2月初，比特币价格还在4.35万美元/枚附近。在短短一个月内，比特币涨幅超45%。若以人民币汇率计算，比特币一度接近50万元一枚。

In fact, Bitcoin has been on its way recently. In the past two months, the price of Bitcoin has risen in all but eight trading days. In early February, the price of Bitcoin was around $4.35 million. In just one month, the Bitcoin rose by more than 45%.

比特币的暴涨主要源于几方面因素：

The surge in bitcoin stems mainly from several factors:

首先，全球经济复苏的预期增强，投资者信心提升，推动了比特币等加密货币的价格上涨。其次，市场对美国6月份实施降息的预期，增大了高收益或波动性较大的金融产品对投资者的吸引力。高盛2月公布的报告显示，其预计美联储将在2024年大幅降息，至少降息4次，首次降息将于6月开始。

First, expectations for the global economic recovery have increased, and investor confidence has contributed to higher prices for encrypted currencies, such as Bitcoin. Second, market expectations for the US in June have increased the attractiveness of high-yielding or volatile financial products to investors.

降息会降低借贷成本，增大市场上的流动性，推动更多资金流入包括比特币在内的其他投资渠道。此外，低利率的储蓄或定期产品对投资者的吸引力将会下降，这也助推了比特币价格进一步走高。

Cuts in interest rates reduce borrowing costs, increase liquidity in the market, and promote greater capital inflows into other investment channels, including Bitcoins. Moreover, low interest rates of savings or fixed-term products will be less attractive to investors, which will also contribute to further increases in Bitcoins prices.

再者，随着比特币ETF在美国正式获批，11只ETF在1月11日开始上市交易。这一决定，使得海外普通投资者像买卖股票和共同基金一样买卖比特币，所以，越来越多的投资者开始通过投资比特币ETF的方式，涉足加密货币投资领域。数据显示，上市成立以来，比特币ETF的资金流入量为74亿美元，其中2月份高达59亿美元。

Moreover, with the official approval of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States, 11 ETFs began trading on 11 January. This decision enabled ordinary investors abroad to buy and sell bitcoins like stock and mutual funds, so more and more investors began to move into the area of investment in encrypted currency by investing in Bitcoin ETF.

还有一个比较特殊的因素是，业内人士分析，比特币4月份将迎来新一轮的“减半”。所谓“减半”是指挖矿奖励减半，大约每四年发生一次，具体时间取决于比特币网络的区块生成速度。这将会减少比特币的供应量，预计在2024年4月23日，届时区块奖励将从6.25枚降至3.125枚。

A more special factor is the analysis by industry that Bitcoin will receive a new round of “50-per-cent” in April. The so-called “50-per-cent” refers to a reduction in mining incentives by half, approximately every four years, depending on the speed of production of the Bitcoin network. This will reduce the supply of bitcoins, which is expected to fall from 6.25 to 3.125 by 23 April 2024.

目前，比特币现货ETF的买入需求远超过每日供应量，导致供需关系呈现脱钩状态。所以，市场预期，在“减半”事件来临后，这种供求关系紧张会进一步加剧，这也助推比特币目前行情持续向好。有分析甚至认为，在ETF热潮以及“减半”预期等多个利好因素加温下，比特币或有可能在“减半”之前突破历史高位。

So, markets expect that this tension between supply and demand will increase even further after the “50-per-cent” event, which will also contribute to the continued improvement of Bitcoin’s current performance. There is an analysis and even an argument that Bitcoin may have reached a historic high before “50-per-cent” when multiple factors such as the ETF boom and the “50-per-cent” expectation have increased.

不过，作为高风险投资的比特币价格一直波动较大。虽然2021年11月一度触及6.9万美元，但下跌时也一泻千里，一年后的2022年11月，比特币跌破1.6万美元，创出这一轮下跌的最低点。

However, the price of bitcoin, which is a high-risk investment, has been highly volatile. Although $690 million was touched in November 2021, it fell a long time later, with bitcoin falling by $16,000 in November 2022, the lowest point in the round.

此外，并不是所有参与者都能在高价格时获益。根据CoinGlass数据显示，最近24小时比特币市场有1.52亿美元爆仓，全网加密货币共有141730人被爆仓，4.37亿美元（约31.5亿元人民币）灰飞烟灭。

According to CoinGlass, there has been a $152 million explosion in the Bitcoin market in the last 24 hours, a total of 1,41730 Internet-wide encrypted money has been blown up, and $437 million (approximately RMB 3.150 billion) has been destroyed.

文｜记者 冷爽

Reporter Man, it's cold.