比特币的真正价值

比特币的最大价值在于，提醒我们如何更好填补电子货币真空。

　　刘筱攸，深圳《新产经》杂志记者

"WeiboCard.show (2187802513, 'tech', this) href="http://weibo.com/islxyou?zw=tech" target="_blank" Liu Xiaosheng, Shenzhen Journal journalist

　　最近在跳水的不只明星，还有比特币。从4月10日晚间的最高报价266美元开始，截止至4月16日下午1时，比特币价格在经历了5个震荡日后，狂泄至62美元。

Recently, more than a star jumped, and there was Bitcoin. Starting with the highest offer of $266 in the evening of April 10th, by 1 p.m. on April 16th, the Bitcoin price stunned to $62 after five shocks.

　　一夜暴富或者是一朝丧财永远是最抓人眼球的谈资，比特币则将这样的素材在现实中深刻演绎。这也就是为什么比特币明明在2009年就已经出现，可直到4年后才引起足够的重视。

This is why bitcoin appeared in 2009, but it was only four years later that it received enough attention.

　　在真正理解比特币内涵的拥趸眼里，它是乌托邦式的自由经济主义的激进实践；而在更多市侩的投机者眼里，它不过就是用来炒作的虚拟期货和黄金。一大票媒体用“庞氏骗局”、“投机”、“泡沫”这样的标签重复轰炸，无疑是把脚跟放在了后者的鞋里。

In a true understanding of the meaning of Bitcoin, it is a radical utopia of liberal economicism; in the eyes of more city speculators, it is nothing more than a virtual future and gold to be used as a prank. A large number of media repeats the bombing using labels such as “Ponzi fraud”, “speculation” and “foam” to put their feet in the latter’s shoes.

　　我们有理由基于比特币价格的涨跌来评判其价值的高低，但比特币引出的虚拟经济独立的可能性却更加值得注意。

We have reason to judge their value on the basis of the price increases and falls of bitcoin, but the possibility of virtual economic independence generated by bitcoin is all the more noteworthy.

　　要在现实中流通，比特币，谁为你背书？

To circulate in reality, Bitcoin, who's going to endorse you?

　　比特币的奥派理念

bitcoin's olympic concept

　　技术男不可怕，懂经济学的技术男才可怕。

Technical men are not terrible. Technical men who know economics are terrible.

　　一帮极客(高智商互联网玩家)将自由、颠覆的理念彻底运用在了经济学里，用开源软件创造了一种去中心化的虚拟货币。去中心化啥意思？就是不依靠任何特定货币机构发行。好吧，其实关于比特币起源与原理的文章已经非常多了，在此就不做技术性赘述，各位感兴趣可自行百度一下。

A group of elites (high-intellectual Internet players) have applied the concept of freedom and subversion to economics, creating a decentralized virtual currency with open-source software. What do they mean by decentralizing?

　　总之，你只要记住：1.它就是互联网上的一小串加密信息代码，通过在P2P网络上运行特定的算法所得；2.使用网络中众多节点构成的分布式数据库来确认并记录所有的交易行为；3.它的算法确保了无法通过大量制造比特币来人为操控币值。

In conclusion, just remember: 1. It is a small code of encrypted information on the Internet, derived by running specific algorithms on the P2P network; 2. Use distributed databases consisting of numerous nodes in the network to confirm and record all transactions; 3. Its algorithm ensures that the value of the currency cannot be artificially manipulated through the mass manufacture of bitcoin.

　　满足以上三点，比特币简直就是极客最爱。

To satisfy these three points, Bitcoin is the favorite.

　　微博博主“@货币之王比特币”(以下简称货币之王)就是比特币的拥趸之一。这个微博名字毫不掩饰地传达出博主本人对比特币理念的狂热拥护。

WeiboCard.show (2541288177, 'tech', this) href="http://weibo.com/kingofcurrence?zw=tech" target="_blank" the King of Currency's Bitcoin (hereafter the King of Currency) is one of the fans of Bitcoin. This microblogging name conveys undisguisedly the fanatical support of the owner's own idea of the currency.

　　“奥派经济学”，货币之王说道。奥派经济学，全称奥地利经济学派，是近代资产阶级经济学边际效用学派中最主要的一个学派。它崇尚自由市场，支持不受干预的市场经济的强硬主张；除此之外，还倡导政治和社会学说中的自由思想。要解释就太学术了。简而言之，奥派经济学理念就是自由，自由得还很激进。

“Olympus economics”, the king of money says. Austrian economics, known exclusively as the Austrian economics school, is one of the most important schools in the recent school of marginal utility of bourgeois economics. It embraces the free market and supports the hard-line idea of a non-interferenceed market economy; in addition, it promotes the idea of freedom in political and social discourse. It is academic to explain. In short, the Austrian economics concept is freedom, and freedom is radical.

　　“生产力一直在发展，物价本应往下降，可通货膨胀却不断上演。为什么？因为货币一轮轮增发。这样我们的货币就贬值了。另外，银行一直将我们的存款放贷出去，让我们的财富遭遇泡沫，进而蒸发。所以我觉得奥派经济学是被主流经济学掩埋的黄金，很简单的道理，要发行(货币)可以，但凭什么只允许你央行发行？如果存在货币增发现象，为什么不允许大家抛弃？货币就应该是去中心化的，像比特币。”在货币之王看来，“比特币就是奥派经济学在现实的一次伟大试验”，2011年7月，他开始参与到比特币玩家中。

“Productivity has been growing, and prices should be falling, but inflation has been rising. Why? Because of the currency boom, our currencies have been devalued. Moreover, banks have been lending our deposits, evaporating our wealth. So I think that Austrian economics is gold that is buried in mainstream economics, and it is simple to say that it is possible to issue it, but by what means only your central bank? If there is an increase in money, why not?

　　货币之王进一步解释：奥派经济学中，货币的价值就在交易本身。这样的原理很到位地演绎在了比特币上：比特币由网络无成本诞生，为了让它从一个账户输送到另一个账户，得有一个安全通道。而制造安全通道，则需要消耗大量能源，因此整个比特币用户群要奖励那个造币通道者相应的比特币。这个过程被形象地誉为“挖矿”，本质是P2P网络上制造新区块(block，每个区块包含一定的比特币)的过程。其重点在于：软件算法决定了制造一个全网络都认可的新区块很难，参与者越多，新区块产生得就越慢。如同真实的挖矿，你把身边的矿都挖没了，你只能去更远的地方挖，可矿产总有一天被耗尽。这也就是为什么媒体说到2030年，比特币的总量将停留在在2100万。

The King of Currency further explains that the value of money is in the trade itself in Austrian economics. Such a principle is well established in bitcoin: Bitcoin was born free of cost from the network, and there is a safe passage to allow it to move from one account to another. The safe passage would require significant energy consumption, so the entire number of Bitcoin users would reward the same bitcoin as the money-builder. This process is imaged as “mining”, essentially the process of creating new blocks (blocks on the P2P network, each containing a certain amount of bitcoins).

　　这样的游戏规则让比特币币值节节上升。无怪乎有媒体认为比特币是极客主导的庞氏骗局，设计出来就是为了让早期的玩家获得巨大利润，因为较早接触的人可以用低价获得大量比特币。

The rules of the game raise the bitcoin knots. No wonder the media think that bitcoin is a pontist-led scheme designed to make a huge profit to early players, because early contacters can get a lot of bitcoins at lower prices.

　　对此货币之王不置可否：比特币有控制货币总量的完美机制，而且任何早期投资者都有获得利润的权利。问及其持币总数，货币之王则表示不便透露。

The king of the currency leaves open the question of whether Bitcoin has the perfect mechanism to control the monetary stock, and any early investor has the right to profit. Asking about the total number of its currency, the king of the currency cannot easily disclose it.

　　而另外一位比特币玩家“@熊小二的麸醋”(以下简称熊小二)从去年十月开始购买比特币，现持有113枚。他告诉我，他从2009年就关注比特币，但真正接触已经比较晚了，所以只能选择在交易市场购入而非自己挖矿。初次买进时比特币的价值是60元人民币，而现在即使是在经历了连番下挫后，比特币依然币值360人民币以上。

Another Bitcoin player, “@a catch="wt_article_link” onmouseover="WeiboCard.show (216629944, 'tech', this) href="http://weibo.com/u/2166299494?zw=tech" target="_blank' bear (hereinafter Bear II) now holds 113 bitcoins since last October. He told me that since 2009, he had been concerned about Bitcoin, but was late in real contact, so he had to choose to buy it in the trading market rather than dig for himself.

　　收益确实可观。“但价格不能代表比特币的价值”，熊小二表示。即使比特币价格继续跌，他也不会大量抛售。熊小二有两个身份：在工作上他是一个毕业两年的外企员工；而私下里，他跟货币之王一样，是奥派经济学的铁忠。

“But the price does not represent the value of bitcoin”, Bear II says. Even if the price of bitcoin continues to fall, he will not sell it in large quantities. Bear Junior has two identities: he is a two-year-old expatriate employee at work; and, in private, he is, like the king of money, the iron loyalist of Austrian economics.

　　他微博上认证写着“巴别塔自由主义研究社创始人”，而简介则是这么一句话：“建设自由社会要求人们具备思考、谈论和行动的勇气——特别是在无所作为更加容易的时候。”他向我推荐《货币的非国家化》，表示在货币领域货币也应该有自由竞争。

On his tweet, he certified the words “founder of the Babita Liberal Research Society” and the brief read: “Building a free society requires the courage to think, talk and act — especially when it is easier to do nothing.” He recommended to me the Non-Stateization of Currency, stating that money should also be freely competitive in the monetary sphere.

　　不难看出在中国的比特币玩家中，不乏对比特币所承载的自由经济学理念有一定理解者。他们的动机较于投机者来说显得“乌托邦式”的纯粹，希望借这样一种虚拟货币对现有货币体系造成冲击，进而建设自由货币市场。

It is easy to see that there is some understanding of the liberal economics philosophy embedded in bitcoin in China. Their motivation is pure utopian than that of speculators, hoping that such a virtual currency will have an impact on the existing monetary system and thus build a free currency market.

　　问题是：理解这番理念的人，占大多数吗？

The question is: are those who understand this idea the majority?

　　很多人不关心价值只关心价格

Many people don't care about value but price.

　　我向很多金融专家请教了比特币，但大多数都表示没有深入研究。反之，IT圈对比特币的认知度还更成熟一点。这也从侧面证明了前文所述，比特币与其说是经济产物，不如说是互联网极客圈产物，还很小众。

I asked a lot of finance experts for bitcoin, but most of them said they didn't study it in depth. Conversely, the IT circle is a little more sophisticated in its perception. It also proves, on the side side, that bitcoin is more a product of the Internet than an economic product, and it's a very small one.

　　货币之王也认为，认知不对等也直接造成了比特币眼下还很难在现实生活中流通。即使现在国外很多大网站都已经接受了比特币支付(如交易平台Expensify.com)，但普通人听起来还是会一头雾水。或者更尖锐地说，他们下意识就认为货币应该由银行印发，握在手上。

Even now that many large websites abroad have accepted bitcoin payments (e.g. trading platform Expensify.com), ordinary people still sound like a fog. Or, more sharply, they think that money should be issued by banks and held in their hands.

　　这才是矛盾的最根本。

That's the root of the contradiction.

　　“比特币只能是个昙花一现的东西”。我致电著名PE东方富海董事长陈玮，他如是说道。

"Bitcoin can only be a flashy thing." I called the well-known Chairman of the PE Fuhai East, Chen Yui, who said that.

　　陈玮表示，比特币本身的想法并没有问题，但与证券、期货、金融衍生品相比，比特币的基本价值都更加有限，或者说，比特币并不具备使用价值。比特币已知的、有限的供应量意味着，其需求的增长速度会超过供应的增长速度，泡沫会越来越大。因此，它注定无法成为行之有效的替代性货币，将会不可扭转地走向覆灭。

Chen stated that the idea of Bitcoin itself was not problematic, but that the basic value of bitcoin was more limited than that of securities, futures, and financial derivatives, or that bitcoin did not have any use value. The known and limited supply of bitcoin meant that its demand would grow faster than its supply, and the bubble would grow.

　　持类似观点的还有职业投资人黄生。他曾于比特币行情看涨的时候就公开表示：“比特币：地球上最稀罕的货币，两月涨近1000% 。与其说比特币是一种货币，不如说是一种交易中介，它不具备货币的本质，因为货币的本质是政府信用，由政府作为最后背书人，如此一来，比特币更是一种人为制造的虚拟商品，这种虚拟商品充当了物物交换中介，但这就是一个人为的泡沫和骗局，希望中国能禁止。”

In a similar vein, there was also a professional investor, Wong Shik. He said publicly when Bitcoin went up, "bitcoin: the rarest currency on Earth, up by nearly 1,000% in two months." Bitcoin was more a trade broker than a currency, because the nature of the money was a government credit, and the government as the last backer, so that Bitcoin was an artificial virtual commodity that acted as an agent for the exchange of goods, but that was a man-made bubble and fraud that China hoped would ban."

　　这些专业人士与比特币拥趸的观点，说白了就是两种教条之争——货币金属论和货币名目论的长期争论。前者认为货币价值必须与贵金属的价值相锚定，后者否定货币的实质价值，认为货币只是一种名目上的存在。

These professionals argue with Bitcoin’s convoluted view that there are two dogmas – the long-standing debate about monetary metal theory and currency naming. The former considers that monetary value must be anchored in the value of precious metals, the latter rejects the real value of money and considers it to be merely a name.

　　而现实是，现在很多比特币玩家根本不care哪一教派的经济学，他们纯粹因为觉得这个东西可以迅速地捞到钱而入场。更讽刺的是，恰恰也是这一帮市侩的投机者们，推动了比特币的前行，并让其系统在一次一次的市场交易或者攻击中逐渐完善。

The reality, however, is that a lot of bitcoin players now do not care about the economics of any of the sects, simply because they think it can get money quickly. Ironically, it is precisely this group of speculators that pushed bitcoin ahead and allowed its system to evolve in a single market transaction or attack.

　　比如刚过去的4月10日，比特币的交易价格大幅下跌，全球最大比特币交易市场Mt. Gox随后停盘12小时。货币之王解释，这是因为最大的两家比特币交易网站Mt.Gox和Bitstamp遭到了黑客的“分布式服务拒绝”(DDOS)攻击，比特币的交易因此受阻，“这两年比特币交易中心常被黑客攻击，这迫使交易中心不断修复自己的安全漏洞。但凡发现不正常交易，中心很快会取消掉。总之，系统会越来越健康完善。”

For example, on April 10, the price of Bitcoin's transactions fell sharply, and Mt. Gox, the largest bitcoin trading market in the world, stopped for 12 hours. The King of Currency explained that this was because the biggest two bitcoin trading websites, Mt. Gox and Bitstamp, were attacked by hackers' “distributed service denials” (DDOS), and that Bitcoin's transactions were blocked as a result.

　　熊小二告诉我：他的一个朋友从比特币值只有5美金的时候就进场，现在即使比特币价格重挫，他依然在买进，目前已经持有1200个比特币了，“因为看好比特币将来会恢复到原价位，甚至更高”，他说。

Bear Jr. told me that a friend of his came in from a time when the bitcoin was worth only $5, that he was buying it now, even though the bitcoin price was seriously frustrated, and that he now holds 1,200 bitcoins, “because it seems that bitcoin will be restored to the original price, or even higher”, he said.

　　这样的接盘者还不少，据每日经济新闻的报道，国外很多财团也参与了比特币的爆炒，所以短期内比特币并无崩盘的可能。

There are also a number of such receivers, and according to daily economic news reports, a large number of foreign syndicates have also been involved in the explosion of Bitcoin, so there is no possibility of a short-term collapse of Bitcoin.

　　财经专栏作家端宏斌则在博客里表达了对此事的忧虑：“对比特币最大的威胁是十分简单的：人们对比特币兴趣的消失。如果是这样，比特币就不能发展出强大的周边工具系统以让这个货币体系发育成熟。人们对比特币兴趣的消失，不会让比特币系统本身死亡，但是它会让比特币系统停滞不前。在一个不断创新的时代里，停滞不前的含义和死亡差不多。”

The financial columnist, Hirobin, expressed his concern in his blog: “The biggest threat to Bitcoin is simple: the loss of interest in Bitcoin. If so, Bitcoin cannot develop a powerful system of peripheral tools to enable the monetary system to mature. The loss of interest in bitcoin will not kill the bitcoin system itself, but it will put the bitcoin system at a standstill. In an era of constant innovation, stagnation means death.”

　　而投机者，无疑是最快失去兴趣和耐性的那个。因为他们看中的，从来都是价格，而非价值。

Speculators, on the other hand, are undoubtedly the fastest to lose interest and patience. They always look at the price rather than the value.

　　如果不死，它可以变成什么样子

If you don't die, what can it be like?

　　有公司日前利用比特币概念可谓做了一个漂亮的事件营销。据每日经济新闻报道，一家名为“TDVMedia”公司的首席执行官杰夫。贝里克近日宣布，计划率先在塞浦路斯开通世界上第一台比特币自动取款机(ATM)。

According to daily economic news reports, Jeff, Chief Executive Officer of a company called TDVMedia, recently announced that Berik was planning to launch the world’s first Bitcoin ATM in Cyprus.

　　且不论此计划最后是否落实，但比特币引起了现实资本的关注是必然的。有不少人担心政府的直接干预会扼杀这个货币体系，熊小二则表示：“政府可以取缔比特币的交易平台，但永远无法取缔比特币”。

Whether or not the plan is finally implemented, it is inevitable that Bitcoin is a source of real capital concern. There are many fears that direct government intervention will stifle the monetary system, and Bear Jr. says: “The government can shut down Bitcoin’s trading platform, but it can never shut down Bitcoin.”

　　这样的说法固然有道理，但如果比特币被宣布为非法，那么比特币将很难展开它的周边应用。虽然互联网只要存在一天，比特币体系就能存在一天，但不可能有任何机构开支持比特币。这意味着比特币经济将要转为地下经济。

That is true, but if bitcoin is declared illegal, bitcoin will be difficult to apply. While the Internet will last only one day, the bitcoin system will exist one day, there can be no institutional support for bitcoin.

　　如果，我是说如果——如果比特币不死，会走出一条怎样的路径？

If, I mean, if -- if Bitcoin isn't dead, what kind of path would it be?

　　端宏斌对此颇有见解：首先，取得法币体系的支持。Visa、Mastercard肯定不愿意比特币进入他们的地盘，因为全球的清算服务已经处于他们的寡头垄断之下，这时需要引入大企业来整合比特币的交易市场，借助其力量让前者接受比特币；

In the first place, gaining the support of the French currency system. Visa, Mastercard, would certainly not want Bitcoin to enter their territory, as global liquidation services are already under their oligopoly, which would require the introduction of large firms to integrate the Bitcoin trading market and use its power to accept Bitcoin.

　　其次，将比特币导入终端。比特币只能在电脑上保管是比特币扩大应用范围的最大阻碍。要想流通，必须让比特币进入终端；

Second, the import of bitcoin into the terminal. Bitcoin only holds on a computer is the biggest obstacle to the extension of Bitcoin. For circulation, Bitcoin must be allowed into the terminal;

　　接下来要攻破的肯定是商户了。如果比特币能够被足够多数量的人群采用，那么它就会吸引零售商们的主意。现在已经有一些零售商开始支持比特币付款，但是相对于经济的总体数量而言，还显得稀少。但比特币的设计为人们展现了一种良好的处理小额付款的体系，比特币应该抓住小额交易的细分市场；

There are now retailers that have started to support bitcoin payments, but it is scarce in relation to the economy as a whole. But bitcoin is designed to show a good system for handling small payments, and bitcoin should capture the small-traded segment of the market;

　　最后肯定是企业。即便比特币能够一路取得成功，企业很可能是最后才进入比特币经济的。为了让比特币适用于企业间的交易，还需要很多安全级数高的软件应用。比特币经济需要通过这些会计应用，才能无缝地接入现有的企业财务系统里。

Even if Bitcoin succeeds all the way, it is likely that the company will only enter the Bitcoin economy. In order for bitcoin to apply to inter-firm transactions, a lot of high-security software applications are needed. Bitcoin economies need these accounting applications to provide seamless access to existing enterprise financial systems.

　　这样的预测很符合逻辑，但却又显得“乌托邦”。因为货币也许可能是一个信念系统，但是它应该也是一个真实财富的分配体系。我们暂时还不能接受一个随意分布在互联网上的数十亿字节的、没有国家财富做支撑、没有政府官方授权的货币体系。

Such predictions are logical, but they appear to be “utopian.” Because money may be a belief system, but it should also be a real wealth distribution system. For the time being, we cannot accept a monetary system that is randomly distributed over the Internet by billions of bits, supported by national wealth and without official government authorization.

　　因此，比特币的最大价值其实是在于，它提醒了我们应该如何来更好地填补电子货币的真空。

So the greatest value of Bitcoin is actually that it reminds us how we can better fill the digital currency vacuum.

　　正如皮特•罗德里格斯(Peter Rodriguez，弗吉尼亚大学达登商学院教授)所说：“比特币并没有什么特别之处；实际上，几乎所有东西都能被用作‘伪货币’。如果比特币能够建立自己的价值，并在足够长的时间里让投资者对其抱有信心，那么最终能将这种货币从一时流行的价值储存手段变成真正货币的机制可能才会开始形成发展；然后，比特币可能会变成一种可靠的交易媒介和指数值，在整个世界的货币体系中拥有自己的位置。真正的问题不在于比特币是否将价值暴跌，而是在于这种货币是否能在这种无可避免的考验中生存下去；如果挺过了生存危机，哪怕在渡过危机以后只剩下非常低的价值，比特币还是将改变我们对于价值储存、金融以及虚拟经济独立性的思考方式。”

As Peter Rodriguez said: “Bitcoin is nothing special; in fact, almost everything can be used as a ‘false currency’. If Bitcoin can build its own value and give investors confidence in it for a long enough time, then the mechanism that eventually transforms such currency from a one-time value-storage tool into a real currency may begin to develop; then Bitcoin may become a reliable trade medium and index value, and have its place in the monetary system of the world. The real question is not whether Bitcoin will collapse in value, but whether it will survive this inevitable test; if it survives the crisis, even if it has a very low value after it has survived, it will change the way we think about value storage, finance and virtual economic independence.”

　　这是我目前看到的，对比特币最公允的背书了。没有之一。

That's what I see right now. Bitcoin's fairest endorsement. No one.