比特币突然暴跌，超15万人爆仓，还要再跌30%

　　过去三个月被一直看好的比特币，近日突然暴跌，2日更是跌幅超6%，致使超15万人爆仓。

　　这次比特币突然暴跌的直接原因，可能是大型比特币持有者的异常行为(或称“比特币巨鲸”)，他在周一深夜向Bitfinex交易所转移了超过4000枚比特币，所以，这一抛售后的10分钟，比特币价格迅速走低，接连跌破67000美元和66000美元两道整数关口，甚至一度失守65000美元/枚，为3月24日以来首次，过去24小时暴跌约5000美元。

The direct cause of the sudden collapse of Bitcoin may be the unusual behaviour of the large Bitcoin holder (or “bitcoin whale”), who transferred more than 4,000 bitcoins to the Bitfinex exchange late on Monday night, so that 10 minutes after the sale, Bitcoin prices quickly fell down, falling back at two integer points of $67,000 and $66,000, and even lost $65,000/me for the first time since 24 March.

　　和3月14日创下的历史高点相比，比特币价格已下跌约11%。

Bitcoin prices have fallen by about 11 per cent compared to the historic highs that were created on 14 March.

　　 CoinGlass数据显示，最近24个小时内，虚拟货币市场共有15.3万人爆仓，爆仓总金额为4.74亿美元(约合34亿元人民币)。

CoinGlass data show that, in the last 24 hours, the virtual currency market has exploded with a total of 153,000 people, amounting to $474 million (approximately RMB 3.4 billion).

　　大规模抛售背后，是更大的经济背景。甚至有分析认为，今年加密货币的大幅上涨正在失去动力，原因是，随着美国经济数据最近表现强劲，而通胀仍令人担忧，导致市场重新评估美联储的利率前景，这也提振了利率更具吸引力的美国国债和美元，从而不利于比特币。

There is even an analysis that suggests that this year’s sharp rise in encrypted currencies is losing momentum because, with the recent strong performance of US economic data, inflation remains worrying, leading markets to reassess the Fed’s interest rate prospects, which also boosts the more attractive US national debt and the dollar, to the detriment of Bitcoin.

　　目前，10年期美国国债收益率达到今年最高水平，此前与比特币价格呈反比关系的美元也达到了近五个月来的最高水平。

At present, the 10-year rate of return on United States national debt has reached its highest level this year, and the United States dollar, previously inversely associated with Bitcoin prices, has also reached its highest level in almost five months.

　　正是在这样的背景下，链上分析平台CryptoQuant最新研报显示，比特币近期反弹至历史新高之后，市场的基本面发生了显著变化，表明美国国内投资者对其需求减弱。根据CryptoQuant跟踪的数据，Coinbase Premium指标的七天移动均线已经转为负值，这意味着美国投资者的净买盘相对较弱。

It is against this background that the recent study of CryptoQuant, the chain-based analysis platform, shows that, after the recent rebound of Bitcoin to historical heights, the market’s fundamentals have changed significantly, suggesting that domestic investors in the United States are less demanding. According to CryptoQuant, the seven-day average moving line of Coinbase Premium’s index has been converted to negative, which means that the net buying of US investors is relatively weak.

　　雪上加霜的是，市场预期的“减半”事件临近。所谓“减半”是指比特币的挖矿奖励减半，这减少了新比特币的供应量。据BTC.com显示，当前区块高度距离比特币“减半”时间剩余已不足20天。而在“减半”前进行价格调整也是市场中一部分所预期的健康回调。在2016年和2020年的“减半”周期中，比特币价格分别下跌了38%和20%。

This is compounded by the impending “50-per-cent” of market expectations. “50-per-cent” refers to the halving of bitcoin mining incentives, which reduces the availability of new bitcoins.

　　这种回调背后，主要是“减半”可能会对比特币矿工的盈利能力产生严重的负面影响。首先，“减半”事件将直接减少矿工获得的比特币奖励，从而降低他们的收入；其次，由于比特币的生产成本上升，那些电力成本高、钻机效率低的矿工将面临更大的压力。这可能导致部分矿工退出市场，进一步减少比特币网络的算力。

Behind this retrenchment is the “50-per-cent” that could have a serious negative impact on the profitability of the miners. First, the “50-per-cent” event would directly reduce the bitcoin incentives received by the miners, thereby reducing their incomes; and, second, those miners with high electricity costs and low drilling efficiency would face greater pressure as a result of the higher production costs of the bitcoin.

　　所以，摩根大通在一份针对比特币发布的报告中警告，比特币的价格可能会因此暴跌至4.2万美元/枚，较目前价格的潜在下跌空间超30%。

Thus, in a report issued in response to Bitcoin, Morgan Chase warned that the price of Bitcoin could drop sharply to $42,000/me, more than 30 per cent of the potential decline in current prices.

　　当然，市场也不都是坏消息。比如，渣打银行将比特币的年底价格预测从10万美元上调至15万美元，并预计比特币在2025年将达到25万美元周期的高点，然后稳定在20万美元左右。

Of course, the market is not all bad news. For example, the Chartered Bank raised its year-end price forecast for Bitcoin from $100,000 to $150,000, and expected to reach a $250,000 cycle high in 2025, then stabilized at around $200,000.

　　不管怎么说，加密币价格的起起落落已成常态，任何长期或者意外因素都有可能产生一定影响。

In any case, the rise and fall of encrypt currency prices has become normal and any long-term or unexpected factors may have some impact.

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