比特币：价值永远不会投机，而货币会

投机与投资是股市中的两个概念。

Speculation and investment are two concepts in the stock market.

什么是投机？简单来说就是“买的目的是为了卖”。什么是投资？也是简单的一句话“买的目的是为了拥有”。

What is speculation? In simple terms, “the purpose of the purchase is to sell”. What is the investment? And in simple words, “the purpose of the purchase is to own”.

俗话说“态度决定方法”，在股票市场里，持有两种不同态度的人在买卖股票时所用的方法就不同。一般情况下，我们认为投机是带有贬义，而投资是带有褒义的。

In the stock market, the methods used to buy and sell shares are different for those with two different attitudes. In general, we consider speculation to be derogatory and investment to be laudable.

一般的股民们都知道价值投资的概念，而没有听说过价值投机，这是因为价值永远不会投机。

General shareholders are aware of the concept of value investment and have not heard of value speculation because value will never be speculative.

1.价值从何而来

1. Where do values come from?

以腾讯为例，自2004年上市截止2020年，腾讯股价累计涨逾300倍。

By way of example, the prices of telecommunications shares have increased by more than 300 times since their listing in 2004 until 2020.

近10年来，科技市场蒸蒸日上，腾讯作为科技企业的领头羊，业绩始终保持增长，而这种增长也势必会反映在股票价格上。

Over the past 10 years, the technology market has been booming, and the performance of technology firms, as the lead sheep, has been growing, and this growth will inevitably be reflected in stock prices.

就算市场环境非常好，但如果没有公司良好的业绩支撑，股票不会轻易上涨。

Even if the market environment was very good, stocks would not rise easily without the support of good corporate performance.

而行业景气度高、自身业绩良好的公司就算处于大盘下跌通道，它的前途也是一片光明的。价值投资力量由此显现。

And even if a company with a high industry profile and its own good performance were in the path of a major downturn, its future would be bright. The power of value investment would thus be evident.

众多投资大师的成功经验表明，以价值为驱动可以获得良好的成效，价值投资可以保证长期稳定收益。

The successful experience of many investment masters shows that value-driven results are good and that value investments guarantee stable returns over the long term.

股价一般都是围绕公司价值波动而波动的，如果不研究公司价值，就不清楚股价波动的原因。

Stock prices generally fluctuate around company value fluctuations, and if the company value is not studied, it is not clear why stock price fluctuations occur.

很多投资人一提到价值投资，就会提到“长期持有”的概念。价值投资一般都是长期持有的，但是长期持有股票不一定是价值投资。价值投资的核心是买入价值被低估的股票，投资周期则随估值的变化而定。

Many investors refer to the concept of “long-term holding” when they refer to value investments. Value investments are generally held on a long-term basis, but long-term stock holdings are not necessarily value investments.

英国著名的基金经理和投资人安东尼?波顿（Anthony Bolton）被业界奉为“欧洲的彼得?林奇”。他曾经在富达国际有限公司长期担任董事总经理兼高级投资经理的职位，他管理的“富达特殊状态基金”在近30年里达到20.3％的高复合增长率，比同行以及同时期英国基准股指7.7％的增长率高出很多。

The well-known British fund manager and investor Anthony Bolton, who had long held the position of Managing Director and Senior Investment Manager at Fuda International Ltd., had achieved a high and complex growth rate of 20.3 per cent over the past 30 years, much higher than his peers and the British benchmark share of 7.7 per cent at the same time.

波顿一直推崇“反向操作”的投资理念，从来不会盲目追踪热点股，而是将自己全部的精力用于寻找那些正处于“特殊状态”的公司。

Bolton has been promoting the concept of “reverse operation” investment and has never been blindly tracking hotspots, but has devoted all of its energy to finding companies that are in “special” situations.

波顿认为，“特殊状态“公司就是那些价格相对于资产、股利或者未来每股收益而言具有吸引力，还具备其他特色、有可能对股价产生正面影响的公司。

According to Bolton, “special status” companies are those whose prices are attractive vis-à-vis assets, dividends or future earnings per share, and which have other characteristics and are likely to have a positive impact on stock prices.

2.货币的投机属性

2. Speculation characteristics of currencies

与此相反，货币是投机的典型代表，最著名的有英镑和日元，巧合的是英国和日本两个国家都处在欧亚大陆两边，而且都是岛国。

On the contrary, the currency is a typical expression of speculation, most well-known being the pound sterling and the yen, which coincides with the fact that both the United Kingdom and Japan are on both sides of the Eurasian continent and are island States.

英镑是当下最值钱的货币，而且曾经作为世界货币，主宰全球流通。由于英镑对美元的汇率最高，而且交易量远远低于欧元，所以体现为较大的波动性。另外，伦敦还是最早的外汇交易中心，其交易员的经验和技巧都是顶尖的，所以能在很大程度上控制英镑的走势。

The pound is the most valuable currency in the world today, and once the world’s currency dominated global circulation. Given its highest exchange rate against the United States dollar and its far lower volume of transactions than the euro, it is reflected in greater volatility.

人为因素制造了大量的短线波动，那些缺乏经验的货币投机者往往容易深陷其中。因而，英镑成为一种投机货币，吸引了大量投机者进行短线操作。

Man-made factors create large amounts of short-line fluctuations, and inexperienced currency speculators are often vulnerable. As a result, the pound sterling becomes a speculative currency that attracts large numbers of speculators to short-line operations.

日元成为投机货币的原因与英镑有很大不同。

The Japanese yen became an speculative currency for a very different reason than the pound sterling.

众所周知，日本国内市场非常小，是出口导向型经济。近年来，日本国内经济衰退，其国内经济增长主要依赖出口。

It is well known that Japan’s domestic market is very small and is an export-oriented economy. In recent years, Japan’s domestic economy has been in recession and its domestic economic growth has been largely based on exports.

因此，经济性地干预汇市，使日元汇率不至于过强，保持出口产品竞争力成为日本习惯的外汇策略。日本央行是世界上最经常干预汇率的央行，且日本外汇储备丰富，干预汇市的能力较强。

The central bank of Japan is the most frequent central bank in the world to intervene in exchange rates, and Japan’s foreign-exchange reserves are abundant, and its ability to intervene is stronger.

口头干预和直接入市是日本政府干预汇市的两大手段，因此，日本政府财政官员的言论总是能够使日元发生短线波动。

Oral intervention and direct entry are the two main means by which the Japanese Government intervenes in the currency market, so that the statements of the Japanese government finance officials are always able to cause short-term fluctuations in the yen.

3.比特币的价值

3. Value of Bitcoin

美国经济学家、货币学派的代表人物米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）曾设想：“用一个自动化系统取代中央银行，以稳定速度增加货币供应量，消除通货膨胀。”比特币似乎完美地回应了他的设计，使他的梦想成真。

Milton Friedman, an American economist and representative of the monetary school, had envisaged that “the central bank should be replaced by an automated system that would increase the supply of money at a steady pace and eliminate inflation.” Bitcoin seemed to respond perfectly to his design, making his dream come true.

在国外，全球成千上万商家愿意接受比特币支付，从纽约市梅泽烧烤店到电子商务平台 Shopify，连塞浦路斯的某些大学也接受比特币支付学费。

Abroad, tens of thousands of businesses worldwide are willing to accept Bitcoin payments, from the New York City Metz to the e-commerce platform Shopify, and even some universities in Cyprus accept Bitcoin to pay tuition fees.

与英镑、日元不同，比特币并不是投机品。比特币本身是颠覆现有的金融秩序的，很难与现存的哪种资产相提并论。

Bitcoin is not a speculator, unlike pounds sterling and yen. Bitcoin itself is destabilizing the existing financial order, and it is difficult to compare it to what kind of assets exist.

从表面上看，比特币的价格会随着资金的投入而变化。当比特币吸入的资金变少，比特币市场供大于求，那么比特币就会跌价。反之，如果资金持续投入，而每天新增的比特币供给有限，那么比特币就会涨价。

On the face of it, the price of bitcoin will vary with the input of money. When bitcoin inhales less, and bitcoin is more available than demand, bitcoin will fall.

一些投机者为了套利而进入比特币市场，这种短期进入的资金最终并不会支撑比特币的价格。投机市场理论是一个零和游戏，即高抛低吸的成功者需要低抛高吸的失败者供养。

Some speculators enter the Bitcoin market for arbitrage, and this short-term entry does not ultimately support the price of Bitcoin. The speculative market theory is a zero-sum game, in which successful high- and low-spills need to feed low-sweeper losers.

而比特币的货币属性使得比特币不是一个零和游戏，因为比特币可以直接在市场中花费。

The currency attributes of bitcoin make bitcoin not a zero-sum game, because bitcoin can be spent directly in the market.

用户可以在比特币交易平台买入比特币后，直接在商品市场中使用掉。而在市场中，人们需要越来越多的比特币来流通，而使其部分替代法定货币。

Users can use bitcoins directly in the commodity market when they buy them at the Bitcoin trading platform. In the market, people need to move more bitcoins and make them part of the legal currency.

在这种情况下，虽然比特币的应用范围越来越广，但在交易所中进行投机交易的比特币却越来越少，最终比特币的价格自然会持续上涨。

Under these circumstances, while Bitcoin is becoming more widely used, there are fewer bitcoins trading in the exchange, and eventually the price of bitcoin will continue to rise.

纸币的价值根本在于储蓄。如果没有人愿意持有纸币，纸币就失去了意义。

The value of a banknote is essentially savings. If no one wants to hold a banknote, it loses meaning.

货币本身是价值的存储手段，即在交易与交易之间，保存相应的价值。可以说，比特币的长期价值取决于“长期”本身。

Currency is itself a storage tool for value, that is, the preservation of the corresponding value between the transaction and the transaction. The long-term value of Bitcoin depends, it can be said, on the “long-term” itself.

比特币将会满足人们的储蓄保值的需求，其价值与用户愿意储蓄保值的资金有直接关系。

Bitcoin would satisfy the need for savings to be saved, the value of which would be directly related to the user's willingness to save on the money to be saved.

例如，如果有100万人相信比特币是最好的储蓄手段，而平均每人愿意通过比特币持留大约相当于10万元的价值，那么比特币就需要至少1000亿元的总市值。

For example, if one million people believe that bitcoins are the best means of saving and the average person willing to retain the equivalent of about $100,000 through bitcoins, then bitcoins would require a total market value of at least $100 billion.

比特币的价值原理与黄金相似，尽管市场中很少使用黄金作为流通货币，但其市值仍然很高，这不只是因为它能够被制成饰品或金属元件，还因为人们看重黄金的保值功能，因此愿意买入并持有它。

Bitcoin values are similar to gold, and although gold is rarely used as a currency in circulation in the market, its market value is still high, not only because it can be made of accessories or metal components, but also because people value the value of gold and are therefore willing to buy and hold it.

这一过程是循环的，因为黄金有保值功能，所以人们愿意保存它。也正是因为人们愿意购买并保存它，因此黄金有了保值功能。

This process is circular, because gold has a preservation function, so people are willing to keep it. It's also because people are willing to buy and save it, so gold has a preservation function.

当然，这也有赖于黄金总量稳定的特性，就像比特币总量有限一样，而无限滥发的纸币则没有相同的保值功能。

Of course, this also depends on the stable nature of the gold stock, as in the case of the limited amount of bitcoin, while infinitely abusive banknotes do not have the same preservation function.