今周世界開始變

　　世界日日都在變，不然人類便沒有進步了，但今周世界開始有大變，而這變對環球投資市場影響深遠。

World days are changing, otherwise humankind is not making progress, but this week the world is beginning to change dramatically, and this has had a profound impact on the global investment market.

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第一變：石油美元協議到期

First Change: Oil dollar agreement expires

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　　1972年美國取消由35美元可兌一盎司黃金的承諾，為的，就是可以肆意印美鈔去支付對其選民無底洞的福利支出（去買選票嘛）以及其軍事霸權的龐大軍費支出。當然尚有其建國200多年來，所打的160多場大大小小戰爭的支出。

In 1972, the United States cancelled its promise of $35 per ounce of gold in order to be able to print dollar bills to cover the welfare costs (to buy votes) of its electorate and its military hegemony. Of course, more than 160 wars have been fought in the country for more than 200 years.

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　　為支持印出來龐大美鈔的購買力，1974年基辛格等謀士說服沙特，將石油與美元掛勾，即世人買石油必要用美元結算，而沙特又將售油所得的美元，投資於美國債券。這樣一來，美國就可以創造出龐大的、為買石油而必先要有美鈔的局面。而美元除成為交易所需外，亦迫使各國政府要用美元作儲備，以作國際支付用。

In support of the purchase power of large United States bills, schemers like Kissinger in 1974 convinced Saudi Arabia to tie up oil with the dollar, which is necessary for the world to buy oil, while Saudi Arabia invests the dollar from the sale of oil in American bonds. In this way, the United States can create a huge situation in which dollars are needed to buy oil.

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　　這個1974年美國與沙特所定立的石油美元協議是50年的，到今年2024年便到期。由於近年連串美國在國際上的霸凌行為，兼無限量QE，即是將沙特歷年所收儲的美元貶值。新一代沙特領導人不甘心為美國的馬前卒，遂思變。其變是石油不再單與美元掛勾，而是可以一眾認可的其他貨幣作交易，其中人民幣自然被認可作石油交易的一員。

The 1974 US-Saudi oil dollar deal was 50 years old, and it will expire in 2024 this year. As a result of a series of United States bullyings at the international level in recent years, an unlimited amount of QE is the value of the dollar that Saudis have collected.

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　　報章上不少資訊都是抄自海內外媒體，筆者不想竊集他人著作成果，改少少扮作自己一家之言，所以坦言做文抄公，以下是抄自《財聯社》的：

A lot of the information in the newspaper was copied from the media both inside and outside the country, and I did not want to steal the work of others and pretend to be part of my family.

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　　「全球約80%的石油銷售以美元進行。

“About 80% of the world's oil sales are in United States dollars.

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　　日本能源經濟研究所JIME中心高級研究員近藤茂人表示：『自上世紀70年代以來，美國一直向沙特施壓，要求其以美元出售原油，以維護美元的地位，並要求沙特購買美國債券和武器。』

Kondo, a senior researcher at JIME Center, Japan's Energy and Economic Research Institute, said, "Since the 1970s, the United States has been pressuring Saudi Arabia to sell crude oil in United States dollars to preserve its dollar status and to buy US bonds and weapons."

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　　美國政府資料顯示，今年3月，沙特連續第八個月增持美國國債，達到1359億美元，環比增長3.66%。

According to United States government data, in March of this year, Saudi Arabia increased its United States debt for the eighth month in a row, reaching US$ 135.9 billion, a 3.66 per cent increase in ring growth.

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　　中國已是該國最大的交易夥伴和原油的最大買家。在過去兩年裏，沙特已考慮以人民幣進行商品交易。

China is already the country’s largest trading partner and the largest buyer of crude oil. In the last two years, Saudi Arabia has considered trading commodities in renminbi.

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　　沙特一直致力於在其與主要安全盟友美國的夥伴關係，以及其與中國和俄羅斯（歐佩克＋內的主要能源夥伴）的合作關係之間保持平衡。

Saudi Arabia has been working to maintain a balance between its partnership with the United States, the main security ally, and its cooperation with China and Russia (the main energy partner in OPEC).

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　　去年，中國和沙特簽署了價值70億美元的本幣互換協定，作為促進本幣貿易、減少對美元依賴的努力的一部分。

Last year, China and Saudi Arabia signed a $7 billion exchange agreement for their own currency as part of their efforts to facilitate trade and reduce their dependence on the dollar.

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　　近藤茂人表示：『沙特貨幣里亞爾與美元掛勾，以美元結算獲得石油收入，做預算規劃更容易。此外，美元作為世界主要儲備資產的主導地位沒有變，這也表明沙特沒有轉向其他貨幣的動力。』

According to Moo Kondo, "It is easier to plan the budget for Saudi currency Rial with the dollar to earn oil revenues. Moreover, the dollar’s dominant position as the world’s major reserve is unchanged, which also indicates that Saudi Arabia has no incentive to turn to other currencies."

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　　阿聯酋第三大銀行阿布達比商業銀行也預計，沙特貨幣與美元的掛勾，在近期和中期內都將繼續。

The third largest bank in the United Arab Emirates, the Business Bank of Abu Dhabi, also anticipates that the Saudi currency-dollar hook-up will continue in the near and medium term.

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　　該銀行首席經濟學家莫妮卡．馬利克表示：『沙特里亞爾與美元的掛勾與通脹預期一起支撐著貨幣和宏觀經濟穩定。』

The bank’s chief economicist, Monica Malik, said, “Shari’a’s hook-up with the United States dollar, together with expectations, sustains the currency and grand economic stability.”

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　　『在沙特需要增加海外投資以支援其轉型計劃的時候，與美元掛勾對於外國直接投資流入也至關重要。』

“At a time when Saudi Arabia needs to invest more abroad to support its transformational plans, it is also important for foreign direct investment inflows to be linked to the United States dollar.”

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　　作為『2030願景』計劃的一部分，沙特需要數千億美元來轉變經濟並擺脫石油出口。該計劃依賴於吸引大量國內外投資，一些大型項目仍需投入巨額資金。

As part of the Vision 2030 program, Saudi Arabia needs hundreds of billions of dollars to transform its economy and get rid of oil exports. The program relies on attracting large domestic and foreign investment, and some large projects still need to be invested in large amounts.

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　　沙特財政部長穆罕默德．賈丹(Mohammed Al Jadaan)在今年4月份的一次活動中表示，沙特將適應當前的經濟和地緣政治挑戰，對一些項目進行調整，即採取『縮減』或『加速』投資的行動。」

During an event in April this year, Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Al Jadaan stated that Saudi Arabia would adapt to the economic and geopolitical challenges of the past to adjust some of its projects, i.e. to “reduce” or “accelerate” investment.

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第二變：更多央行打算掃貨黃金

Second Change: More central banks intend to clean gold

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　　在美「金」變成美「元」（完）之後，世界央行轉儲黃金。

After the U.S. was transformed into a U.S. dollar, the world’s central bank resold gold.

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　　「據世界黃金協會(WGC)的一項年度調查，在宏觀經濟、政治和美元不確定性持續存在的背景下，預計未來發達經濟體的央行所持黃金的比重將上升，而美元持有比重則會下降。

According to an annual survey by the World Gold Association (WGC), against the background of an ambitious economic, political and dollar uncertainty that persists, the share of gold held by central banks that are expected to reach the economy in the future will rise, while the share of dollar holdings will decline.

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　　調查顯示，近60%富裕國家的央行認為，未來5年黃金在全球儲備中的比重將上升，這一比例去年僅為38%；約13%的發達經濟體計劃在未來一年增持黃金，這一比例高於去年調查的8%左右，也是這項年度調查開始以來的最高水平。

Surveys show that central banks in nearly 60 per cent of rich countries believe that the share of gold in global reserves will rise in the next five years, which last year was only 38 per cent; and that about 13 per cent of the emerging economy plans to increase the share of gold in the coming year, which is about 8 per cent higher than last year’s survey, the highest level since the survey began.

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　　可見，發達國家央行正效仿新興市場購買黃金的步伐。自2008年全球金融危機以來，新興市場央行一直是黃金的主要買家。

As can be seen, the central bank is following the pace of buying gold from the emerging market. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the central bank has been the main buyer of gold.

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　　根據WGC的數據，全球央行在2022年和2023年均增加了1000多噸黃金儲備。

According to WGC data, the global central bank increased its reserves by more than 1,000 tons of gold in 2022 and 2023.

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　　與黃金形成鮮明對比的是，IMF本月的研究顯示，美元在全球外匯儲備中所佔的比重，已從2000年的逾70%暴跌至去年的55%左右，其中剔除了美元升值的影響。」

In contrast to gold, the IMF's study this month shows that the share of the United States dollar in global external reserves has dropped sharply from more than 70 per cent in 2000 to around 55 per cent last year, excluding the impact of the dollar's appreciation.

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　　筆者今年來已有多篇文章指出一眾央行買黃金（圖一至圖三），目的是為貨幣回歸金本位作準備，投資者該怎辦？跟央行買金唄。

I have written a number of articles this year about a group of central banks buying gold (figures I to III) in order to prepare the currency for its return to gold. What should investors do?

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第三變：日本農林中央金庫沽美歐債

3rd Change: Japanese Central Bank of Agroforestry to the U.S.A. Debts