比特币陷入困境，矿工和交易所储备创下新低

首先，矿工的这一惊人数据最好用减半后的环境来解释。2024年减半后，矿业公司面临着一系列独特的挑战，特别是在ETF时代。矿工们在每次减半后都必须挣扎数月才能迎来更高的价格，但在本周期内，价格实际上在减半前不久达到了最高点。随着这一事件的发生，许多公司被迫加速了升级设备、整合资本和寻找新收入来源的正常计划，当前的哈希率数据显示我们正处于矿工投降期。在这种环境下，尽管领导者表现出色，但实际上行业的整体压力促使矿工出售，并且出售的速度远远高于过去14年中的任何一次减半。

After halving by 2024, mining companies faced a number of unique challenges, particularly in the ETF era. Miners had to struggle to reach higher prices several months after halving each time, but prices actually peaked shortly before halving in the current cycle. With this event, many companies were forced to accelerate normal plans to upgrade equipment, integrate capital and find new sources of income.

这些销售对于许多矿业公司来说是必要的，以维持基本运作，但也对比特币本身产生了连锁反应。比特币巨鲸以夸张的速度抛售资产，已经被指责为比特币陷入低迷的原因之一，但这种分析忽视了一个事实，即许多这些巨鲸实际上是矿工。换句话说，该行业为自我保护而采取的行动与其他大账户的机会主义行动结合在一起，形成了一种可能动摇对比特币信心的叙述。然而，这正是交易平台储备的重要性所在。

These sales are necessary for many mining companies to maintain basic operations, but they also have a chaining effect on the bitcoin itself. The Bitcoin whales have been accused of selling their assets at an exaggeration rate as one of the reasons for Bitcoins’ lowness, but this analysis ignores the fact that many of these whales are actually miners.

尽管矿工储备因行业困境处于14年来的最低水平，但交易平台储备代表着完全不同的销售压力。事实上，交易平台储备量低是比特币销售压力实际上有所下降的明确信号。毕竟，如果每个人都在卖，交易平台怎么会缺少比特币？谁在购买这些资产？相反，交易平台储备量低表明市场处于高度积累期，尽管目前尚不清楚谁在购买这些股票。当然，ETF本身可能是部分行动的候选者，但许多交易发生在个人交易者手中。

, despite the fact that mineral reserves are at their lowest level in 14 years due to industry difficulties, trade platform reserves represent a completely different sales pressure. , in fact, the low level of trading platform reserves is a clear sign that bitcoin sales pressure has actually declined. After all, if everyone is selling, how can the trading platform be short of bitcoins? Who is buying these assets? On the contrary, the low level of trading platform reserves indicates that the market is in a high accumulation period, although it is not clear who is buying these stocks.

小型交易者已被认定为这一价格时期的决定性时刻，因为一系列心理因素可能是比特币持续上涨的最大实际障碍。毕竟，最近有许多基础经济因素实际上是令人鼓舞的。然而，导致大量人们购买或出售比特币的各种原因可能包括一些令人沮丧的选择。例如，比特币在近两周内一直低于7万美元的价格点，结果是大量的空头头寸押注这一趋势将继续。从某种角度来看，如果比特币突破这一门槛，所有人都会获利，但如果真的发生，这些空头头寸中的惊人的16.7亿美元将一夜之间蒸发。对比特币的这些集体下注对生态系统产生了真实而有形的影响，比特币的支持者需要找到应对措施来克服这一影响。

The after all, there have been many underlying economic factors that have been encouraging in recent times. However, the reasons that have led to a large number of people buying or selling bitcoins may include frustrating choices. For example, Bitcoin has been below the $70,000 price point for almost two weeks, with the result that the trend will continue. From some perspective, if Bitcoin breaks the threshold, everyone will gain, but if it does, the amazing $1.67 billion of these empty positions will evaporate overnight.

不幸的是，如果对比特币的抽象下注希望价格进一步下跌，那么看好比特币的投注则一直在挣扎。来自芝加哥商品交易平台的新数据显示，新ETF几乎完全推动了比特币期货套利和基差交易的复兴。具体来说，根据6月20日发布的数据，自ETF获批以来，CME的比特币期货市场增长了80%，而ETF本身在进行这类交易时是一个有价值的工具。然而，本周ETF流失严重，整个行业连续五天出现净流出，总额约为9亿美元。这种损失对比特币购买者来说远非鼓舞人心，德国政府悄然出售了3.25亿美元的被没收比特币，更是让这个信心雪上加霜。

Unfortunately, if Bitcoin's abstract bets hope that prices will fall further, then bitcoin's bets have been struggling. New data from the Chicago Trade Platform show that the new ETF has contributed almost entirely to the revival of Bitcoin futures arbitrage and base line trading.

尽管这些不幸的预兆很多，市场中仍有许多积极的迹象。例如，比特币终于重新掌握了其区块链的主导地位，首次在几个月内超过90%的链上交易为常规BTC交易。此前，类似Ordinals和Runes的协议导致了区块链的严重拥堵，但比特币转账现在远远超过了这些协议。此外，分析师已经识别出一系列因素，表明比特币可能接近价格底部，尤其是低交易平台储备强烈暗示着低卖压。这些因素乍一看似乎微不足道，但比特币的反弹并非意外。