10个月，三千多美元涨到三万多美元，是什么让比特币坐上火箭

我朋友的故事

My friend's story.

我有一个朋友，叫张小帅（化名），他是一个非常普通的前端工程师，供职于一家创业企业，他从来没想过自己人生中能发一笔横财。

I have a friend, Zhang Xiaojun, who is a very common front-end engineer working in an entrepreneurial enterprise and who never thought he could make a fortune in his life.

2020 年 3 月，张小帅的老板让他去了解下区块链，老板想把自己的商业计划书硬搭上个区块链的概念，因为老板听说区块链是资本市场的香饽饽。就这样，张小帅第一次正儿八经地去看了些与区块链有关的技术资料，也包括我此前写的一些文章，这是他第一次深入了解以前只闻其名的比特币。

In March 2020, Jang's handsome boss asked him to get to know the lower block chain, and he wanted to put his business plan into the concept of a block chain, because he heard that the block chain was the accelerator of capital markets. As a result, Zhang went through some technical information about the block chain for the first time, including some of my earlier articles, the first time he had been able to get in-depth knowledge of bitcoin, which he had previously known only as bitcoin.

比特币 2013~2019 年初的价格及交易额（黄色为价格）

一个多月后，张小帅才想起去看一眼自己的比特币涨了没有。2020 年 4 月 18 日当他再次打开自己的比特币钱包时，他都不敢相信自己的眼睛，3800 美元已经变成了 7000 美元。一个多月就挣了 3000 多美元，比自己这一个月到手的工资还多。张小帅马上就想抛掉，落袋为安，可是他发现自己根本没有决心按下最后一步的“确定”。为什么呢？因为每次当他点到卖出预览页面时，比特币的价格又上涨了，他只要点取消，重新再发起一次卖出操作，就又能多卖出 10 多美元。就这样取消又重新发起了 5 次之后，张小帅对自己说：干脆不卖，再等等。

After more than a month, he remembered to see if his bitcoin was up or not. On April 18, 2020, when he opened his bitcoin wallet again, he couldn't believe that his eyes, $3,800, had turned to $7000. More than three hundred dollars in over a month, more than the wages he had earned in that month. He immediately tried to drop it and left his bag for peace, but he found himself not determined to press the last step.

7 月 27 日，一个比特币的价格突破 10000 美元大关，张小帅为自己的英明决定开心坏了，他觉得还能涨。11 月 8 日，突破 15000 美元；11 月 20 日，比特币价格达到了 18000 美元。张小帅犹豫了一下，顶住了诱惑，咬咬牙没有抛。

On July 27, a bitcoin price broke the $10000 mark, and Zhang was happy about his wise decision, and he felt he could still rise. On November 8th, $15,000 was broken; on November 20, $18,000 was set. Zhang was hesitant to resist the temptation and bitten his teeth.

又过了仅仅不到一个月，12 月 16 日，比特币突破 2 万美元大关，这意味着比特币突破了诞生以来的最高历史价位。这一次，张小帅觉得自己应该抛了，挣得够多了，都已经突破历史记录了，差不多到头了。然而，半年多前那次抛售的经历再次上演，他无论如何也下不了决心按确定，因为比特币还在快速上涨。张小帅内心深处的赌徒小人儿理直气壮地告诉他：再等等。

Less than a month later, on December 16, Bitcoin broke the $20 million mark, which means that Bitcoin broke the highest historical price since his birth. This time, Zhang Xiaojun felt he should have thrown it, made enough money, and had already broken his record, almost to the end. But, after six months and a half ago, when the sale went on again, he couldn't make any determination, because Bitcoin was rising fast.

这一次，他又赌赢了。仅仅 16 天后，2021 年的 1 月 2 日，比特币突破 3 万美元大关，又过了 20 小时，一个比特币的价格达到了34000 美元。张小帅账户中的财富已经增长了 10 倍，他似乎看到自己心仪的特斯拉正在向他招手。

Only 16 days later, on January 2nd, 2021, Bitcoin broke the 30,000-dollar mark, and 20 hours later, a bitcoin price reached $34,000. The wealth in this little handsome account has grown 10 times, and he seems to see his beloved Tesla waving his hand at him.

截止到我写文稿的时候，一个比特币的价格是 33000 美元，我的朋友张小帅跟我说，他决心要等到比特币涨到 5 万多美元一枚时再抛，刚好够买特斯拉最新款的 Model Y。我只能祝他好运，希望这个故事最后能以喜剧收场。

By the time I wrote the script, a bitcoin was worth $33,000, and my friend Chang told me that he was determined to wait until the bitcoin rose to over $50,000, just enough to buy Tesla's latest Model Y. I can only wish him luck, and I hope this story ends with a comedy.

有关比特币的 8 个事实

2020 年的下半年，比特币的价格就像坐上了火箭，以令人震惊的速度上升，期间只有一些微小的波折，总体趋势就像一根上下翻转过来的抛物线，加速度惊人。在这半年中，这个星球上没有任何一种投资品的涨幅能与之相比。比特币的总市值达到了 5900 多亿美元，很快就要追上阿里巴巴目前的总市值 6100 亿美元。

In the second half of 2020, the price of Bitcoin was like a rocket, rising at an alarming rate, with only a few small swings, and the overall trend was like a parabolic up and down, with an alarming acceleration. During the second half of the year, none of the investments on the planet was comparable to that. The total market value of Bitcoin was more than $590 billion, and it would soon catch up with the current total market value of Alibaba, which was $610 billion.

因为我在 2 年前曾经写过一篇几万字深度介绍比特币技术原理的文章，所以最近就有很多人来问我：比特币为什么会涨得那么厉害？这会不会是一个巨大的肥皂泡？未来比特币还有多大的上涨空间？

Because I wrote an article about the technical principles of Bitcoin in tens of thousands of words two years ago, so a lot of people have recently asked me, "Why is Bitcoin so high? Is it a huge soap bubble? How much room is it going to go up in bitcoin?"

今天我想斗胆回答这几个问题，但在给出答案之前，我希望你先听我说完以下这些事实陈述，然后再听我的观点。区分事实陈述和观点陈述是科学思考的前提。

Today I want to have the courage to answer these questions, but before I give the answer, I want you to listen to the following factual statements and then to my point of view. The distinction between factual statements and statements of opinion is a prerequisite for scientific thought.

事实一：比特币是基于非常严密的数学算法设计的，数学保证了它不可能被伪造，换句话说保证了它的稀缺性。至于你把它叫做“数字货币”也好，还是“数学艺术品”“数字投资品”也罢，其实无所谓，它的本质是一种人工制造的“稀缺品”。

Fact one: Bitcoin is designed on the basis of very sophisticated mathematical algorithms, which ensure that it cannot be forged, in other words, that it is scarce. As for what you call a “digital currency” or a “digital investment” in a “mathematical art”, it doesn't matter.

事实二：生产比特币有实打实的成本，这个成本就是电费和计算机芯片的折旧费。目前每生产一枚比特币，电费的消耗大约是 2 万度左右[1]。一个可能会让你震惊的事实是，比特币开采消耗的能源占世界能源消耗的 1%[2]。换句话说，比特币实际上是用能源换来的。

Fact two: there is a real cost of producing bitcoin, which is the depreciation of electricity and computer chips. Currently, for every bitcoin produced, electricity consumption is about 20,000 degrees [1]. One of the things that might shock you is that bitcoins consume 1% of the world’s energy consumption [2]. In other words, bitcoin is actually traded for energy.

事实三：比特币不会通货膨胀，数学算法决定了它的总量是 2100 万枚左右，目前已经生产了总量的 89%，每天新增 900 枚左右。预计到 2024 年 5 月前后，比特币会进入第四次产量减半时间，在那之后，比特币每日新增 450 枚左右。

Fact three: Bitcoin is non-inflationary, and mathematical algorithms determine its total to be around 21 million, and it has now produced 89 per cent of the total, adding about 900 more per day. By the end of May 2024, Bitcoin is expected to halve its fourth production, after which it will add about 450 more per day.

比特币前两次产量减半对价格的影响

事实四：比特币的技术原理决定了，它几乎不可能被任何一个力量操控，只要互联网还存在，就没有力量能够阻止它在互联网上流通，更不可能消灭它。我想，我还是把“几乎”两个字去掉吧，刚才我想的是可能还有外星人的力量。

Fact four: Bitcoin's technical principles dictate that it is almost impossible to be manipulated by any force, and that as long as the Internet exists, there is no power to stop it from circulating on the Internet, let alone destroy it. I think I'd better get rid of the word “almost” and I thought there might be extraterrestrial power.

事实五：比特币已经成为了全世界许多知名投资机构重仓持有的资产。公开可查到的持有比特币超过 5000 万美元的机构不少于 23 家[3]，持仓超过 88 万个比特币，现值超过 264 亿美元。

Fact five: Bitcoin has become an asset held by many well-known investment agencies around the world. There are no fewer than 23 publicly available institutions holding more than $50 million, holding more than 880,000 bitcoins, with a present value of more than $26.4 billion.

事实六：比特币是人类历史上首次出现的实现了“绝对匿名性”的资产。解释一下，在比特币出现之前，没有任何资产是绝对匿名的，哪怕瑞士银行向你承诺保护你的隐私，但在银行的账本上还是要记录你的身份和资产的关系。并且，任何资金在银行间的流动都是可以倒查的。这个资产属于你，总会在某个地方有记录。但是，你的比特币资产可以仅仅是一串密码，理论上你可以强行记在脑中，拥有绝对的匿名属性。换句话说，假如你把那串对比特币拥有权的密码忘记了，那么这些比特币就永远沉没了。它虽然在那里，但永远不可能有人动得了。事实上，比特币网络中已经有大量这样沉没掉的比特币，永远找不回来了。从这个意义上来说，每天都有凭空消失的比特币。

Fact six: Bitcoin is the first asset in human history to have achieved “absolute anonymity.” Explain that, before Bitcoin appeared, no asset was absolutely anonymous, even if the Swiss bank promised to protect your privacy, but in the bank's books it would be possible to record your identity and assets. And, in fact, there are already a lot of bitcoin in the bank that is so sank and can never be recovered. In this sense, there is an absolute bitcoin that disappears every day.

截止 2017 年 11 月，针对“沉没比特币”的统计

事实七：比特币是目前逃避外汇监管，人民币出海的最佳方式，甚至还是合法的。我用一个具体的例子来给你解释，比如我想把自己的 100 万人民币换成美元，可是按照我国现行的外汇管理政策，一个人一年最多只能换 5 万美元。怎么办？我可以用这 100 万元人民币在境内购买挖比特币的矿机，所谓的矿机就是一些专用的计算机芯片。注意，挖比特币在我国是完全合法的。至少目前还没有哪条法律禁止你买计算机芯片去计算某个数字。一旦挖到比特币后，我就可以把比特币转到境外的比特币钱包中，这也完全合法。而且退一步说，因为比特币的绝对匿名性，也不可能有力量能够监控和阻止你将一串密码传输到境外，理论上只要不怕麻烦，我可以打个电话或写封信，用报密码的方式，把比特币转移到境外。在大多数国家，比特币和美元的买卖交易是完全合法的，有专门的交易所，分分钟就可以把比特币换成美元。上述把 100 万人民币换成美元的过程目前完全合法，只是比较麻烦。其实有更方便的办法，你不用自己买矿机挖比特币，你可以找大的矿场入股，按照股份获得矿场挖出来的比特币。其实，最简单的办法，就是你直接用人民币跟其他持有比特币的人交易。按照我国现行政策，开设比特币交易所是违法的，但并没有哪条法律禁止你直接从某人手中买入比特币。

Facts seven: Bitcoin is the best way to escape foreign exchange regulation at the moment, and the renminbi is even legal. I can explain it to you with a specific example, for example, that once I have dug it, I can transfer it to the foreign exchange management policy in force in my country, with a maximum of 50,000 dollars a year. What do I do? I can buy it in my country, with the sum of 1 million yuan, and the so-called miner is some kind of computer chip. Note that digging bitcoin is perfectly legal in my country. At least there is no law that forbids you from buying a computer chip to calculate a figure. Once I have dug it in bitcoin, I can transfer it to the foreign currency.

事实八：目前全球约 65% 的比特币矿机在中国境内[4]，换句话说，平均每天新增的 900 枚比特币中，有大约 540 枚诞生在中国境内的矿机，这些比特币目前的价值超过 1600 万美元。从理论上说，这 1600 多万美元是外汇监管机构无法监管到的，它们可以自由出入境。不过，这点量与现在比特币每天几百亿美金的流通量相比，还是非常微小的，不太可能成为比特币价格上涨的主因。

Fact 8: About 65% of the world’s bitcoin machines are currently in China[4], in other words, of the 900 bitcoins added daily on average, about 540 were born in China, currently worth more than $16 million. In theory, over $16 million is beyond the control of foreign exchange regulators, and they can enter and leave the country freely.

比特币按照国家的算力排行

好了，以上八点事实我跟你讲完了，注意，上面这些全都是事实陈述，而不是观点陈述。

All right, I'm done with the eight facts. Look, these are all statements of fact, not statements of opinion.

我对比特币的六个观点

{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}I've got six points in bitcoin.

基于同样的事实，不同的人可以得出不同的观点。我想谈一下我基于上述事实得出的个人观点。

On the basis of the same facts, different people can come to different points of view. I would like to comment on my personal point of view based on those facts.

观点一：比特币并不是肥皂泡，它与旁氏骗局有本质的不同，因为所有比特币的玩家都知道全部的游戏规则，这是一个阳谋，在这个局中，并没有任何被少数人掌握，而大众不知情的秘密信息。

Opinion one: Bitcoin is not soap bubbles; it is fundamentally different from the Ponzi scheme, because all Bitcoin players know all the rules of the game, it's an impulsive scheme in which no secret information is in the hands of a few, and the public is not aware of it.

观点二：长期来看，比特币的价格还会持续上涨，这是因为它的稀缺性本质不会改变，并且它是用真实的能源消耗生产出来的一种特殊商品，它的大多数性质与黄金非常相似。

Option 2: The price of Bitcoin will continue to rise in the long term, because its scarce nature will not change and it is a special commodity produced from real energy consumption, most of which is very similar to gold.

2020 ~ 2021 年的表现：比特币（橙色）vs 黄金（金色）vs SP500（蓝）

观点三：2024 年 5 月比特币产量第四次减半后的一段时间，比特币的价格很可能会比今天的价格更高。

Opinion three: In the period following the fourth halving of Bitcoin production in May 2024, bitcoin prices are likely to be higher than today’s prices.

观点四：短期内，比特币的价格会发生非常剧烈的波动，一个月内涨跌百分之几百都是正常现象，不要奇怪，因为这是一个完全没有监管的自由市场，它是一个足够复杂的混沌系统。非常类似于混沌的天气系统，各种微小的因素都有可能酿成一场风暴，而且短期无法预测。

A fourth observation: In the short term, bitcoin prices are subject to very sharp fluctuations, and it is not surprising that a few hundred percent increase or fall in a month is normal, because it is a completely unregulated free market, and it is a sufficiently complex system of chaos. Very similar to a chaotic weather system, all sorts of minor factors are likely to create a storm that cannot be predicted in the short term.

观点五：严厉警告，千万不要借钱去炒币，短期投机的风险极其巨大。再次严厉警告，我坚决反对任何短期投机性购买，尤其是举债或者利用杠杆炒币，你会赔得连底裤都买不起，你怎么可能是职业炒币机构的对手？

OBSERVATION 5: A serious warning that there is an enormous risk of short-term speculation by not borrowing money. Once again, a strong warning is that I firmly oppose any short-term speculative purchases, especially debt or leverage, and that you will not be able to afford a pair of underpants. How can you be an opponent of a professional money-grabbing agency?

比特币历史上的四次大跌，跌得底裤都买不起

观点六：假如你有耐心可以长期（至少超过五年）持有，我认为比特币资产是一种比较安全优质，且流动性良好的长期资产配置。

Observation 6: If you have patience to hold it for a long period of time (at least for more than five years), I believe that Bitcoin assets are a relatively safe, high-quality and liquid long-term asset allocation.

好了，我的观点说完了，仅代表个人浅见，欢迎批评。今天我想送给大家的一句金句是：观点没有真伪，事实没有对错。

Well, my point of view is over. It is personal, and I welcome criticism. The golden sentence that I would like to give you today is that the point is that there is no truth and the truth is right.

关于留念的那枚比特币……

About the bitcoin that was left behind...

这篇文章登出后，或许会有人怀疑我是币圈的人，做这期节目是为了割韭菜。呵呵，你也太高看我了。我的这点影响力与比特币每天几百亿的流通规模来说，简直不值一提。我在 2 年多前写区块链科普文章的时候，确实给自己买了一个比特币留作纪念，但仅此一次而已。

Once this article has been published, someone may suspect that I am the one in the currency, and I'm doing it to cut vegetables. Well, you look too high on me. My influence is nothing compared to the magnitude of Bitcoin’s tens of billions of dollars per day. I did buy myself a bitcollage as a souvenir more than two years ago, but only once.