王永菲
Wang Yongfei...br...
2021年2月9日早8点，据欧易OKEx行情显示，比特币再次向上突破，最高报价47480.8美元，约合30万人民币/枚BTC，冲击50000美元关口。这与SpaceX、特斯拉汽车创始人伊隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）长达一周的喊单与特斯拉购入15亿美元比特币的示范效应有相当大的关系。甚至市场目前普遍预期，苹果、桥水基金等企业将会很快购入比特币。
On 9 February 2021, at 8 a.m., according to EueckEx, Bitcoin once again made a breakthrough, with a maximum offer of $47480.8, equivalent to about RMB 300,000/bTC, which hit the $50,000 threshold. This has a considerable bearing on the week-long cry by SpaceX, the founder of Tesla, Elon Musk, and the demonstration effect of Tesla’s purchase of $1.5 billion in bitcoins.
为此，很多投资者纷纷赞同马斯克就是中本聪。比如波场TRON、BitTorrent CEO孙宇晨就在twitter开玩笑表示，马斯克就是中本聪。
For this reason, many investors agree that Mask is Nakamoto. For example, Tron and BitTorrent CEO are joking around at twitter in the morning, and that Masco is Nakamoto.
据Asset Dash数据，比特币总市值与全球上市公司股价市值排行中，以约8724亿美元的总市值位列第7位，在2月8日BTC暴涨后一跃超过特斯拉8184.36亿美元的市值，为特斯拉市值的107%。
According to Asset Dash, the total market value of Bitcoin ranked seventh in the total market value of approximately $87.24 billion against the global market value of the listed companies, exceeding Tesla's market value by $81,84.36 million on 8 February after the BTC surge. This represents 107 per cent of Tesla's market value.
图片来源：Asset Dash
1.2斤黄金兑换1枚比特币
比特币破新高，与新晋世界首富、特斯拉总裁马斯克密近期的言论不可分。1月29日，在马斯克更改推特简介为“#bitcoin”后，比特币就上涨了18%，随后马斯克接连“带货”数字货币，先是在2月4日一天6次提及“狗狗币”，2月8日特斯拉对BTC总计投资15亿美元，再次将比特币拉上4.2万美元的高位。正因为马斯克在欧美有很强的号召力，在他的带动下，有大量“粉丝”买入数字货币，带来比特币和狗狗币的上涨。
Bitcoin broke new heights, which was indistinguishable from recent statements made by Mr. Tesla's president, Mr. Maskmy, the new richest in the world. On January 29, after Musk changed the Twitter profile to #bitcoin, Bitcoin rose by 18 per cent, then Musk, with “carried” digital currency, first mentioned six times a day on February 4, when Tesla invested a total of $1.5 billion in BTC on February, once again pulling Bitcoin to a high position of $42,000. Just because he had a strong appeal in Omer, he was led by a large number of fans buying digital currency, leading to an increase in Bitcoin and Dogcoins.
目前比特币市值超过8656亿美元，排名升至第7位，超越Facebook和特斯拉（市值现报8078.29亿美元）。
At present, the market value of Bitcoin is over $86.56 billion, rising to seven, surpassing Facebook and Tesla (the current market value is $80.7829 billion).
据Asset Dash数据，比特币目前总市值是黄金的9%。而目前黄金市场价约为79.84元/克，约合39920/斤。按照比特币当下46600美元计算，需要近1.2斤黄金才能购买一枚比特币。
According to Asset Dash, the total market value of Bitcoins is currently 9% of gold. The current market price for gold is approximately $79.84/g, or 39920/kg. At $46,600, it takes nearly 1.2 pounds of gold to buy a bitcoin.
对于本轮比特币的价格大幅上涨，欧易OKEx研究院分析师向本报记者表示，本轮比特币牛市的直接原因来自于类似特斯拉这样的高净值和机构投资者的入场：自2020年下半年以来，诸如美国保险巨头万通人寿保险公司、商业分析公司MicroStrategy等机构纷纷买入比特；而在线支付巨头PayPal、新加坡最大的商业银行星展银行也纷纷宣布将推出加密货币支付服务。据Bitcoin Treasuries数据显示，目前超过69亿美元的比特币由上市公司持有。由此带来了比特币市场的繁荣。
In response to the sharp rise in the prices of this round of bitcoin, the EueckEx research analyst told reporters that the direct cause of this round of bitcoin cattle was the entry of high-value and institutional investors, such as Tesla: since the second half of 2020, agencies such as the United States insurance giant Manifest Life Insurance Corporation, the business analysis company MicroStrategy, and the online payment of giant PayPal, Singapore’s largest commercial bank, have been buying bits. Bitcoin Treasuries, according to data, now more than $6.9 billion bitcoins are held by listed companies. This has led to a boom in the Bitcot market.
进一步，传统机构大量买入比特币，其背后的深层次原因是今年全球宏观经济形势变化。一方面，受疫情的影响，未来一年里全球经济复苏减缓；另一方面，央行推出极度宽松的货币政策推高金融市场的通胀预期。高通胀、低增长的经济环境下，为了规避名义本金的受损，以及追求更高收益的需要，投资者囤积现金的需求自然演变成对黄金和比特币的需求，欧易OKEx研究院分析师分析道。
On the one hand, as a result of the epidemic, global economic recovery has slowed in the coming year; on the other hand, central banks have introduced excessively loose monetary policies to push inflation expectations in financial markets. In a high-inflation, low-growth economic environment, and in order to avoid the loss of nominal principals and the need to pursue higher returns, investors’ cash accumulation needs naturally evolved into demand for gold and bitcoin, and ELEKEEx analysts analysed it.
最明显的例子即马斯克旗下的特斯拉公司给美国SEC的最新披露文件：“在2021年1月，我们更新了投资政策，为我们提供了更大的灵活性，以进一步分散和最大化现金收益”，“作为政策的一部分，该政策已获得董事会审计委员会的正式批准，我们可能会将部分此类现金投资于某些另类储备资产，包括数字资产、金条、黄金交易所买卖基金和其他资产。”
The most obvious example is the latest disclosure by Tesla, under the banner of Musk, to the United States SEC: “In January 2021, we updated our investment policy to provide us with greater flexibility to further diversify and maximize cash returns”, and “as part of the policy, which has been formally approved by the Board of Auditors, we may invest part of this cash in certain alternative reserve assets, including digital assets, gold bars, gold exchange funds and other assets”.
警惕比特币投资的巨大风险
Beware of the great risk of Bitcoin's investment
在看到加密货币普遍暴涨，部分投资者暴富盈利的同时，也不得不考虑当下的风险。随着比特币价格高涨，加入比特币大军的人也越来越多。相关统计也显示，目前散户人群对比特币和加密货币行业的追捧程度比以往任何时候都高，FOMO情绪持续高涨。
As the price of bitcoin rises, so does the number of people joining the Bitcoin army. Statistics also show that the popularity of the local population is higher than ever before, and that the sentiment of FOMO continues to rise.
欧易OKEx研究院分析师认为，投资者应该清醒地认识到，比特币是一种高风险资产，而不是避险资产；而且比特币作为一种特殊的资产类别，不同于股票或债券，不会产生任何可预期的现金流，投资者获取回报的唯一方式是比特币价格的上涨，因此更容易形成投机性泡沫。
According to the OLEOKEx Institute analyst, investors should be conscious that Bitcoin is a high-risk asset rather than a hedge asset; and that Bitcoin, as a special asset class, unlike equities or bonds, does not generate any predictable cash flow, and the only way for investors to earn returns is by increasing Bitcoin prices, making it easier to create speculative bubbles.
因此在投资比特币时，投资者应该正确认识比特币的投资定位。对于小白投资者而言，可以尝试投资一点比特币，促进对比特币的认识；但如果想通过投资比特币实现所谓的财富自由，这并不现实。同时，也不建议投资者加高杠杆来炒币，比特币的价格波动极大，在市场调研中，经常会发现一些加10倍、20倍甚至100倍杠杆炒币的投资者，这都带来了巨大的投资风险。
For small white investors, it is possible to try to invest a little bit bit bitcoin to promote the appreciation of bitcoin, but it is not realistic to try to achieve so-called wealth freedom by investing bitcoin. At the same time, investors are not advised to increase their leverage for coins, the price of bitcoins is highly volatile, and in market research, some investors are often found to be 10 times, 20 times, or even 100 times leveraged, which poses a huge investment risk.
对于当下是否是投资比特币的好时机，欧易OKEx研究院分析师向记者分析，鉴于当前的比特币市场情况，建议大家慎重投资比特币。首先，在去年12月比特币价格突破2万美元后，大量新的投资者开始涌入。最明显地，相较于11月，比特币在12月的市场交易量有了显著的增加；其次是比特币价格上涨的速度开始显著增加：比特币从1万美元上涨到2万美元用了1月的时间，从2万美元上涨到3万美元用了半个月的时间，从3万美元上涨至4万美元却只用了一周的时间。这些迹象表明：市场的投资主力可能出现了结构性变化，可能由此前的机构投资者转向中小投资者。市场主力不同，对市场情绪、价格走势有着不小的影响。
First, a large influx of new investors began after Bitcoin’s price bursted by $20,000 last December. Most notably, Bitcoin’s market turnover increased significantly in December compared to November; second, the pace of price increases began to increase significantly: bitcoin rose from $10,000 to $20,000 per month, from $20,000 to $30,000 for half a month, and from $30,000 to $40,000 for one week. These indications are that the market’s investment power may have changed structurally and may have shifted from previous institutional investors to middle- and small investors.
其次，当前市场对未来的通胀预期开始出现分歧。前面我们到，本次比特币牛市，其根本原因在于市场对未来的高通胀预期。欧易OKEx研究院分析师认为，随着疫苗在各国的上市，包括美国新政府上台后带来的财政刺激措施，都将推动经济的复苏。在经济恢复预期和高通胀预期的双重压力下，市场猜测全球主要央行将逐步退出现有的宽松政策。特别是1月6日公布的2020年12月美联储会议纪要中，首次出现缩减购债规模的讨论，这强化了市场对未来货币政策的分歧，所以我们看到最近几天美元指数的震荡，以及比特币的暴涨暴跌。当货币政策也将逐渐由宽松转为适度紧缩后，机构投资者很可能会抛售比特币，这一点是投资者需要警觉的。
With the twin pressures of economic recovery and high inflation expectations, markets suspect that major global central banks will gradually exit existing easing policies. In particular, in the December 2020 meeting of the US Federal Reserve, published on 6 January, there was the first debate on the scale of debt purchases, which reinforced the market’s disagreement over future monetary policy, so we have seen the shock of the dollar index in recent days, as well as a sharp drop in the bitcoins.
（作者为华夏时报金融研究院研究员）
He's a researcher at the Warsaw Times Financial Research Institute.
责任编辑：孟俊莲 主编：冉学东
Responsible Editor: Mon Jun-Lian, Editor-in-Chief: Peng Xiaodong
查看更多华夏时报文章，参与华夏时报微信互动（微信搜索「华夏时报」或「chinatimes」）
Read more of the summer Times articles and participate in the summer Times micro-interactions ("/span" or "chinatimes
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论