万向肖风最新演讲：区块链行业可能出现5万亿美元级别的公司

7月19日，由BTCMedia、consensys和万向区块链实验室联合举办的“Distributed 2018大会”在旧金山Westin酒店举办。会议汇聚了近千名来自全球各地的区块链行业精英，近150名嘉宾在短短两天内集中分享他们对区块链技术的理解，以及对区块链行业未来发展的看法与观点。 第一天下午2点整，万向区块链实验室董事长肖风博士在PlatOn项目介绍会上，做了非常精彩的演讲。讲述了这位国内区块链行业的领军人物对区块链技术与行业的最新思考。
以下是笔者根据现场笔记做的内容整理：

1.肖风认为，区块链是人类发现“新大陆”的哥伦布帆船。哥伦布拓展了人类社会的物理空间，而区块链则将拓展人类社会的“数字空间”。物理空间与数字空间并不矛盾，数字空间并不会替代或颠覆物理空间，两者之间是“平行宇宙”的关系。

According to Xiao Feng, the block chain is the Columbus sailboat where mankind discovers the “New Continent” . Columbus expands the physical space of human society, whereas the block chain expands the “digital space” of human society. Physical space does not conflict with digital space, and digital space does not replace or destabilize physical space, which is a “parallel universe” relationship between the two.

2.对于最近区块链应用与技术的落地，肖风认为，区块链目前还没到“区块链+”的时候。要先有区块链链上技术的成熟，然后才会有应用广泛落地的“区块链+”。目前的区块链技术还不成熟，一个区块链生态的建立，首先是链本身技术的稳定，然后是原生区块链应用的发展，比如：钱包等等。接下去才会有各种行业性应用的爆发，也就是“区块链+”。

For recent block chain applications and technology landings, Shao Feng believes that the block chain is not yet until the technology on the block chain has matured before there is a broadly applied `block chain plus'. The current block chain technology is not mature, the creation of a block chain ecology is first the stability of the chain itself and then the development of the original block chain application, such as wallets.

阿里巴巴、腾讯等互联网企业上世纪末创立，但一直到2008年，才出现“互联网+”的爆发，从区块链到“区块链+”同样需要一个漫长的过程。目前的重点应该是发展区块链技术以及各种原生应用。

The creation of Internet companies like Alibaba, Tseng, etc. at the end of the last century, but it was only in 2008 that the “Internet+” outbreak took a long time, from block chains to block chains plus. The focus should now be on the development of block chain technologies and their native applications.

3.肖风是分布式商业概念的提出者，他认为，分布式商业是区块链技术带来的商业新边疆。在分布式商业世界中，一切中介组织都将被“数学算法”取代。无论是互联网还是区块链，都改变了传统商业活动中的信用与信任体系。传统商业行为中的信任成本是非常高的，互联网和区块链，通过技术手段让这种互信成本大幅度降低。信任的边际成本越低，商业活动越趋向于无边界。

In his view, distributed commerce is a new commercial frontier brought about by block-chain technology

互联网技术让信息交流前所未有的顺畅，已经让信息的边际成本接近于零，但是互联网是由中心化组织来运作的，中心化组织会收取费用，参与者会有成本。而在区块链世界中，理论上讲，数学算法带给了商业活动真正的“零边际成本”，因此，基于区块链的分布式商业模式将使得商业活动的扩展性趋向于无限大。

Internet technology has made the exchange of information as smooth as ever, and has brought the marginal cost of information close to zero, but the Internet is operated by a centralised organization, which collects fees and costs participants. In the block chain world, mathematical algorithms, in theory, bring real “zero marginal costs” to business activities, so a distributed business model based on the block chain will lead to an infinite expansion of business activities.

4.从App到DApp。互联网把商业模式平台化，区块链则反其道而行，把商业平台进行了解构，把中心化平台“去中心”。这就是互联网时代中心化的App和区块链时代去中心化DApp的区别。

From App to Dapp. The Internet uses the business model as a platform, and the block chain as a way of doing the opposite, to create an understanding of the business platform and to “go to the centre” of the central platform . This is the difference between App, which is central to the Internet age, and Dapp, which is central to the block chain.

5.肖博士提出：工业经济遵循牛顿物理学原理，是“能量与物理之间的转换”，而信息经济则遵循量子物理的原理，是“能量与信息之间的转换”。两种不同的经济模型下价值增长规律是完全不同的。

Dr. Shaw suggested that the industrial economy of

以比特币为例，矿机实现了能量与信息的转换。我们在看到比特币、以太坊挖矿高能耗的同时，也应该看到传统的中心化治理也是一种高消耗的模式。中心化的运作机制下，需要军队、政府、警察等各种权力机构。从某种意义上讲，这种消耗会远远高于硬件与芯片的能量消耗。

In bitcoin, for example, the mine has transformed energy and information. While we see bitcoin and the mining of the pits, we should also see that traditional centralized governance is also a high-consumption model.

在区块链的共识机制中，能量转换不可或缺，否则区块链系统不安全。未来，各种计算机芯片会成为区块链上能量与信息转换的关键。

In the consensus mechanism of the block chain, energy conversion is essential, otherwise the block chain system is not secure. In the future, computer chips will be the key to energy and information conversion in the block chain.

6.区块链是数字经济的底层架构，在一个以代码为通用语言的数字世界里，它的治理机制只能是数学算法，肖博士认为：任何尝试用人治、竞选方式的链上治理，都是“非区块链化”的，甚至是“反区块链化”的。

The block chain is the bottom structure of the digital economy, and in a digital world where codes are used as a common language, its governance mechanism can only be mathematical algorithms. Dr. Shaw argues that any chain governance that

7.区块链行业中可能不会出现“杀手级”应用，与互联网不同，区块链行业可能永远看不到用户上亿，日活千万的互联网现象级应用。更可能看到的是一个公链上有一亿个DAPP，每个应用都有自己的代币，价值10万美元，从而形成一个十万亿美元级别的数字经济体。

There may be no “killer-level” applications in the block chain industry, and unlike the Internet, the block-chain industry may never see millions of users and millions of living Internet phenomenon-level applications. More likely, there are 100 million DAPPs on the public chain, each with its own tokens valued at $100,000, creating a $10 billion-class digital economy.

在区块链世界，大市值只能出现在公有区块链上，不会出现在应用层面上。历史上，制造业曾出现过五千亿美元级别的公司，互联网行业中已经出现了万亿美元级别的公司，而在区块链上，很可能会出现五万亿美元的项目。

In the block chain world, the large market value can be found only on the public block chain and not at the application level. Historically, the manufacturing industry has seen $500 billion in companies, the Internet industry has seen trillion in companies, and the block chain is likely to have $5 trillion in projects.

8.数字经济时代，需要数字记账方式，数字记账方式需要数字账户体系。数字钱包是数字账户记录数字货币的方式。法币与数字货币相比，最大的欠缺是无法编程。

Digital wallets are the way digital accounts are recorded in digital currencies. The biggest deficiency in the French currency of

很多人说数字货币发行量固定，会引起通货紧缩。但数字货币可以无限分割，比如比特币，可以精确到小数点后18位。在传统金融领域里，政府通过印发法币实现“货币增发”，在数字货币领域中，市值的增长就是数字货币的“发行与增发”机制。

But digital currencies can be divided indefinitely, such as bitcoins, and can be accurate to 18 decimal places. In the traditional financial sphere, the government “enhances” by issuing French currency, and in the digital currency area, the increase in market value is the “distribution and increase” of digital currency.

9.一条公链的价值如何确定？肖博士给出了一个公式，即：公链的价值=这条公链上所有DAPP价值的总量。因此，当一条公链上有大量DAPP时，公链的价值才会体现并提升。随着DAPP的发展与成熟，完全有可能出现5万亿美元市值的公链。

How is the value of a public chain determined? Dr. Shaw gave a formula, namely: , therefore, the value of the public chain will be reflected and enhanced when there is a large number of DAPPs in a public chain. With the development and maturity of the DAP, there is a real possibility that there will be a $5 trillion market value chain.

以下是提问环节：

The following is a question-and-answer period:

Q1：如何看待区块链和数字货币市场存在的风险？

Q1: How do you see the risks of block chains and digital money markets?

肖风认为，目前区块链技术尚不成熟，需要关注技术的发展，而投资风险来源于资本市场，那是另外一回事。根据肖博士对行业的调查，2018年底和2019年初，各种公链的主网会集中上线。

According to Dr. Shaw's survey of the industry, the main networks of the public chain will be brought together in late 2018 and early 2019.

Q2：如何看待公链之争的？

Q2: How do you see the public chain?

肖风认为，公链之争存在，这说明大家都在关注公链技术，但是80%的公链会失败。只有认认真真，有自己的价值观和分析框架，踏踏实实地一行一行写代码的团队和项目，才有可能成为20%的胜者。

says that the existence of a public chain dispute means that everyone is concerned about public chain technology, but 80% of the public chain fails. Only a team and project that takes seriously, has its own values and analytical framework, and has a code line on the ground can be a 20% winner.

Q3：如果类似于谷歌、Facebook等大公司进入区块链行业，会对现有的行业格局产生什么影响？

Q3: What impact does it have on the existing industry if large companies like Google, Facebook and others enter the block chain industry?

肖风认为，公有链的核心价值在于币，现在大多数大公司进入区块链，往往着眼于联盟链。联盟链去掉了币，只是一个分布式账本。没有了币，也就失去了区块链的核心价值取向，失去了区块链的分布式商业价值。因此，联盟链走不长远，而这些大公司选择联盟链，很有可能也无法在区块链上有所建树。

Shawn believes that the core value of the public chain is the currency, and most of the major companies now enter the chain of blocks, often focusing on the union chain. The union chain drops the currency, which is just a distributed book. Without the currency, the core value of the block chain is lost, and the distributed commercial value of the block chain is lost. So the alliance chain is not long, and these major companies choose the union chain, and it is very likely that they will not be able to make a difference in the chain of blocks.

本文来源：微信公众号@碳链价值

Source: MicroCredit Public @Carbon Chain Value

作者：古千峰

Author: Ancient Peaks