虎嗅注:从1月7日起,比特币开始下跌,到1月15日开始的千币齐跌,“币圈”经历了史上前所未有的断崖式暴跌。文章写道:“贪婪和悔恨夹杂在币圈这个巨大的名利场,无数人的命运在剧烈地起起伏伏。但眼前,名利场却变成了绞肉机。”
本文转载自微信公众“AI财经社”(ID:aicjnews),作者:周天,编辑 :金赫。
应声暴跌
千币齐跌那天,北京东三环附近光照明亮、人头攒动的咖啡馆里,热情高涨的呼声消失了。那里一直人来人往,既有收割上亿的大V,也有犹犹豫豫的观望者。那里常常出现一些梦想着一夜暴富的币圈的“流浪汉”,出身不同,性情各异。他们嗅觉灵敏,还有人不断地兜售自己的故事,脸上写满了对金钱的渴望。
The day the thousands of coins fell, there was a loss of enthusiasm in a coffee shop near the third ring of Beijing, where people came to harvest hundreds of millions of large Vs, as well as hesitant waiters. There were often “vagrants” with different origins and genders who dreamed of being rich all night longing for money. They smelled well, and people were constantly selling their stories, and their faces were filled with desire for money.
那是币圈人的天堂,挤满了项目团队、掮客、自媒体人,每个人都有一套精神胜利法。即使是在千币齐跌后的1月19日,仍然有人对我悄悄地说:“现在进场,一年内财务自由。”无论在哪个时间混进币圈,都能听到这样的声音。有的为信仰甘愿当韭菜,有的想一夜暴富,最终却被一夜清零。
It's a currency circle paradise, full of project teams, brokers, and media people. Even on January 19, after a thousand coins fell, people whispered to me: “Go now, one year of financial freedom.” At any time, they can hear it. Some people want to be groceries for their faith, others want to be rich all night, but they end up all night.
热闹的场面就像是回到了2015年的中关村创业大街。
It's like going back to Chinatown in 2015 to start a business.
“区块链造了一个美到难以置信的梦。”在独角兽公司点融网的创始人郭宇航眼中,就像干柴遇到烈火:干柴是2008金融危机之后缺乏想象力的金融市场,烈火则是无处安放的资金。熊熊烈火之中,跳动着的是比特币入局者的焦虑火苗。
"The block chain creates an incredible dream." In the eyes of the cosmonaut Kwok, the founder of Licorne's melting net, it was like a fire in the dry wood: a financial market with no imagination after the financial crisis of 2008, a fire with no place to put it. In a burning fire, the anxiety of Bitcoin's entryers is rife.
与币圈的梦想家和野心家不同,链圈的人,则寂寞地蜗居在五道口华清嘉园南侧的写字楼研发技术,我走访了几家,画面清一色都是:低矮的天花板,新刷的墙壁,劣质的办公桌椅,地上还散落着装修材料,空荡荡的房间里充斥着刺鼻的味道,但此刻,他们都是享受的,都在为区块链如痴如醉。
Unlike dreamers and ambitions in currency circles, those in chains, who live alone in a writing building on the south side of Qingjia Park, I have visited a number of houses with a clear picture: low ceilings, new painted walls, poor office chairs, decorated materials on the floor, empty rooms full of the smell of stunned noses, but at the moment, they are all enjoying and drunk about the chains.
币圈和链圈的故事正在向着两个极端发展。郭宇航说了一个小故事:一位原本在大摩工作的90后投行家,6年前买了4000个比特币,2017年比特币大涨后,才突然想起自己也是“千币侯”,但由于钱包、密钥没保存好,无法找回,最后损失几亿人民币,约等于3个王健林的小目标。
The story of the coins and chains is developing in two extremes. Space Kwok told a small story: a businessman who was working after 90 years in Damascus, who bought 4,000 bitcoins six years ago, and when it rose in 2017, he suddenly remembered that he was also a “thousand dollar” because his wallet and key were not well preserved and could not be recovered, with the loss of hundreds of millions of yuan, roughly equal to the target of three Wang Kenlins.
贪婪和悔恨夹杂在币圈这个巨大的名利场,无数人的命运在剧烈地起起伏伏。但眼前,名利场却变成了绞肉机:从1月7日比特币开始下跌,到1月15日开始的千币齐跌,“币圈”经历了史上前所未有的断崖式暴跌。
Greed and remorse are mixed up in this huge mosaic of fame, where the fates of countless people rise and fall. But before the eyes of
数字货币行情网站“非小号”显示:跌幅普遍达到 20%。每一次人们眼中的“抄底”好时机,都被证明是一轮更大尺度的暴跌,在一千多种数字货币中,上涨的仅有个位数。到1月21日,震荡之后的大小币种,仍未恢复元气。
The digital money-trading site, the non-quantifiable, shows that the drop was generally 20%. The good timing of each “clip-down” in people’s eyes proved to be a larger-scale drop, with only a single-digit increase in more than a thousand digital currencies. By 21 January, the size and size of the currency that followed the shock had yet to recover.
“币价现在仅为最高点的二十分之一,天天被血本无归的粉丝追着骂。”一位发行了数字货币的团队负责人1月16日一见面就诉苦。炒币客软软君对此早已习惯:在币圈,大起大落的故事太多了,早上一睁眼,几百万就没了的事情在他身上隔三差五就会上演。
“The price of the currency is now only one in 20 of the highest, and it is being scolded every day by bloodless fans.” A team leader who issues digital money complains when he meets on January 16. Soft and softers are used to it: in the currency circles, there are too many stories of a big up and down, and when they open their eyes in the morning, millions of things will fall apart.
“进入币圈后,每天都过得很痛苦。”他总结说。
“Into the currency circle, it's been a lot of pain every day.” He concluded.
和暴跌同时发生的,是区块链概念在坊间急速升温。1月9日,真格基金徐小平的振臂一呼,区块链关键词的微信指数在之后的两天接连翻了几倍。
What happened at the same time as the crash was that the concept of the block chain was rapidly warming in the room. On January 9, Jinga Foundation sighed on the arm of Xu Xiaoping, and the micro-letter index of the key word of the block chain doubled over the next two days.
越来越多的大公司在跑步进场。巨大的利润诱惑着每一个入局者。业内人士讲了这样一件事:有一家互联网巨头又想尝腥,又想规避风险,于是想出了一出妙计——让整个团队假离职,来开发区块链项目,做成了就地分拆,做不成转回体内。
There's more and more big companies running in the field. Big profits tempt every player in the game. Business people say one thing:
连一群仙股公司都把区块链视为市值管理的救命稻草:人人网、迅雷、柯达、四方精创、易见股份……他们有一个共同点——主营业务虚弱,但是只要加个区块链概念,股价扶摇直上。
Even a group of fair-share companies see block chains as life-saving straw for market-market management: Net for All, Thunder, Koda, four-way ingenuity, easy-to-share shares... They have one thing in common — the weakness of the main camp business, but the stock price will rise up as long as the block chain concept is added.
软软君在1月17日对我说:“今天一方面疯狂地卖币,一方面疯狂抄底。”绝望和希望,贪婪与恐惧,共同占据着币圈和链圈大小玩家们的心智。
Soft King said to me on 17 January: “Today, on the one hand, money is being sold madly, on the other hand, and on the other.” Despair and hope, greed and fear, together, occupy the hearts and minds of currency and chain-sized players.
意外大洗牌
在币价暴跌中推波助澜的,是监管的有形之手——从中国央行禁止挖矿的小道消息不胫而走,到韩国酝酿关闭数字货币交易所,再到美国SEC就将对虚拟货币采取强制措施,对数字货币的围剿态势已经在全球范围内形成。
It is the physical hand of regulation that has contributed to the sharp fall in currency prices — from the central bank of China, which banned mining, to South Korea, which is preparing to close the digital currency exchange, to the US SEC, which will impose coercive measures on virtual currencies, and the global siege of digital currencies.
在中国的数字货币投机史上,“9月事件”是载入史册的大洗牌节点。2017年9月4日,一行三会、网信办、工信部、工商总局这七部门出手正式叫停ICO融资。此后,国内的ICO一度销声匿迹,几大交易所也纷纷转战海外。
In China’s history of digital currency speculation, the “September events” were the largest shuffling nodes in history. On 4 September 2017, seven departments – the triads, the Internet-based Information Office, the Ministry of Trade and Communications, and the Directorate-General of Commerce and Industry – officially shut down ICO financing.
那阵子,币圈之中发生了许多光怪陆离的事情:一个跑到香格里拉的ICO项目的负责人,由于惊恐而不敢用自己的身份证开房,吓得浑身发抖。而更多人以各种理由去了国外。
During that time, a lot of strange things happened in the currency circles: the head of an ICO project that went to Shangri-La, who was afraid to open a room with his own identity card, was scared. More people went abroad for a variety of reasons.
匪夷所思的是,此后的币圈变本加厉地疯狂起来。散户资金加速涌入,有的用银两做赌注,有的用自己做赌注,“不少VC、PE行业的朋友,连年终奖都不要了,纷纷纵身跳进币圈。”一位投资行业人士说。
It's hard to imagine that the currency circle has become more and more crazy since then. Some of the money in the diaspora has accelerated, some of it bets on silver and others on their own, and “a lot of friends in the VC and PE industry, not even in the end of the year, jumping into the currency.” One investor said.
而像软软君这样的人,差不多贷了几十万去炒币。他身边的公务员同学也加入进来,“一个月虽然只有六七千,但是银行眼里的优质人群,贷款额度高。”根据一位币圈资深人士推测,经过两轮牛熊切换,币圈中人从数十万人暴增至如今的数百万人。
A man like Soft King, on the other hand, lent hundreds of thousands of dollars to pay off the coins. His fellow civil servants also joined him, “A month, although there are only six or seven thousand, in the bank’s eyes, the loan amounts are high.” According to a senior figure in the currency circle, after two twilight bear swaps, the number of people in the ring rose from hundreds of thousands to millions today.
当整个币圈市场从20万人快速扩张到1000万时,按人均投资额为10万算,其容量就迅速从200亿元暴增至1万亿元,币圈的硬通货,如比特币和ETH的单价水涨船高,区块链惊人的造富效应又吸引更多韭菜入场。狂欢舞会被推向了更高潮。
When the entire currency market expanded rapidly from 200,000 to 10 million, with a per capita investment of 100,000, its capacity rose rapidly from $20 billion to $1 trillion, its hard currency, such as Bitcoin and ETH, rose in single-priced ships, and the alarming enrichment effects of the block chain attracted more pickles. The party was pushed to a higher point.
一家位于四川深山中的比特币矿场。@视觉中国
监管部门自己可能都没有料到,9月4日这次出手意外地改写了行业格局。
The regulators themselves may not have anticipated that the industry pattern was unexpectedly recast this time on 4 September.
原本是二线交易所的币安,抓住监管整治国内老牌三大比特币交易所的契机,迅速把公司从香港搬到日本,有团队成员甚至把家属都带过去了,仅用时数月,就一举蹿升为行业第一,注册用户数飙升至600万,甚至一度不得不暂停注册。
Formerly the second-line exchange’s currency security, seized the opportunity to regulate the country’s three biggest Bitcoin exchanges, quickly moved the company from Hong Kong to Japan, and some team members even brought their families to Japan. In just a few months’ time, the number of registered users rose to 6 million and even had to suspend registration.
从9月4日开始,到11月,人民币入金被叫停后,老玩家就全都去币安了,币安主要是币币交易,由于入金和提现环节都不支持法币,基本未受到监管影响,而这些老牌一线交易所这时候忙着整改,会员流失了一大批。
From 4 September until November, when the renminbi was shut down, all the old players went to exchange the currency, which was mainly a currency transaction, which was largely unsupervised by the lack of support for French currency in the gold-entry and cash-reposit links, and the old-line exchanges, which were then busy with the restructuring and loss of a large number of members.
“政策打压之前,币安是一家二流平台,我们一直对他们爱答不理的。”一家市值近百亿的数字货币发行团队的负责人说,“但现在,我们得去跪舔他们了,求他们上我们的币。”
& nbsp; "Before the policy comes down, the currency is a second-class platform, and we've been ignoring them." The head of a digital money distribution team with a market value of nearly 10 billion says, "But now we're going to have to lick them on our knees and beg them for our money."
叫人吃惊的是,一家草根交易所的人士更是直言不讳:“我是喜欢监管的,每一次监管都是机会,正规平台被管死了,我们这种野路子就发财了。要不是上一轮监管,我们交易所百分之百还在垫底,胆子大才有机会跻身前列。最近风声紧,我们就换了个办公室,再不行,就给团队放假,歇几个月再战。”
Surprisingly, the people of a grass-roots exchange say, “I like to regulate, every time it's a chance, the formal platform is under control, and we're rich. If it wasn't for the last round of regulation, we'd still be at the bottom of 100% of the exchange, and we'd have had a chance to take the lead. Recently, the wind has been tight, we've changed an office, and if we can't, we'll give the team a break and we'll fight for a few months.”
就像现金贷行业遭受监管的毁灭性打击之后,民间高利贷见势死灰复燃一样,每一轮监管也让相对听话的数字货币交易所陷入停滞,但需求没有减弱,乱相没有完全消失,反倒给草莽英雄以绝佳超车机会。
Just as the cash-credit industry has been hit by the devastating impact of regulation, with the resurgence of private mortgages, each round of regulation has stagnated the relatively obedient digital currency exchange, but demand has not subsided, chaos has not disappeared completely, and reckless heroes have been given excellent opportunities to overcarry.
在上述草根玩家眼中,央行新近出台的通知只是隔靴搔痒,“其实限制的是法人户,现在哪里有交易所还在使用公司账户收人民币的了?要么币币交易,要么场外交易。”
In the eyes of the grass-roots players mentioned above, the central bank's recent circular is just a boot-to-mouth: “It's a corporate household that is restricted. Where are the exchanges still using the corporate account to collect the renminbi?
一位业内深喉向AI财经社透露,一些新近崛起的交易所,找到了更隐秘的交易方式,他们从黑市上买了上千个人民币银行账户用来收钱,玩法非常刺激,“其实和监管禁止法币入金的精神相悖。”
A deep throat in the industry revealed to AI's finance and finance that some of the newly emerging exchanges had found a more subtle way of dealing by buying thousands of RMB bank accounts from the black market to collect money, which was very exciting, “in fact contrary to the spirit of regulation prohibiting money from being paid in French”.
隐秘链条
这里面藏着大量的风险:交易所、发币机构换上新马甲,继续大发其财,代币滥发和诈骗混杂其中,大量的私募代投行为开始在微信群和朋友圈上演,圈内稍有影响的带头大哥,受某个币种所在团队的请托,只需拉个微信群,就能“对韮当割”,赚到数千万差价,大公司则借区块链概念炒作,喜迎股价上涨。
There are a great deal of risks: exchanges, money-changing agencies, new armors, continuing to make a fortune, currency abuses and frauds, and large numbers of private fund-raising activities that begin in micro-credit circles and friends, with slightly influential leaders in circles, invited by a group of people in a particular currency, who simply pull a micro-trust pool to “cut off” and earn tens of millions of different prices, while large companies use the block chain concept to build up their stock prices.
“11月到12月份,新上的币种很多,原本搞传销的、做微商的、煤老板,什么人都进场了。再不监管,我自己都怕,随便出来一个项目,动辄就募集几个亿,根本不知道背后是什么样的玩意儿。”一位交易所人士表达了他的忧虑。
“In November and December, there were a lot of new currencies, and the dealers, the micro-businesses, the coal owners, all of them came in. Without regulation, I was afraid to come out with a project and raise hundreds of millions of dollars, without knowing what was behind it.” An exchangeman expressed his concern.
“我就坐了一会儿飞机,手机关机,降落后一开机就看到有十几个ICO项目需要我拉微信群对接,市场太踊跃了!”他对我说。
“I've been on a plane for a while, and I've been on a machine, and I've seen a dozen ICO projects that need me to connect to the micro-letters, and the market is too crowded!” he said to me.
摆在币圈面前的一个吊诡事实是,一个致力于建立去中心化信任机制的新技术,却在其诞生的初期,就非常依赖中心化的信任链条——对新入场的韭菜而言,急需解决信息不对称问题,这就给链条上的所有人,项目团队、交易所、掮客和媒体,都带来了惊人的财富。
A curious fact that lies before the currency circle is that a new technology dedicated to establishing de-centralized trust mechanisms, in the early years of its existence, relied heavily on a centralized chain of trust — an urgent need to address information asymmetries for new entry vegetables — has brought amazing wealth to all those in the chain, to the project team, to the exchange, to the brokers and to the media.
“为了给我们新上的币种发文章,我给不少自媒体都送过钱,仅仅某一家颇有影响力的网络媒体,我半年内差不多就投放了一两百万,有段时间一天就要从我手里出去十几万的投放,签字的时候都觉得肉疼。“一位发币团队的创始人告诉我。
“In order to present our new currency, I gave a lot of money to my own media, and in just one influential online media, I spent almost one or two million dollars in six months, and one day I was about to go out of my hand for a million dollars, and I signed it with a heartache.” I was told by one of the founders of the coin-making team.
据多位币圈人士向AI财经社透露,币圈一些颇有影响力的媒体,最主要的盈利模式并非广告收入,而是通过发文来影响币价,或是推介新币,从中获利,有时一篇文章收取若干个比特币,一家币圈媒体因此月入约在千万元人民币量级。
According to several currency circles, some influential media outlets in the currency circle, the most important of which is not advertising revenue, have been able to influence currency prices by sending a letter, or by introducing a new currency, from which they have profited, sometimes receiving several bits of bitcoins from an article, so that one currency circle media has been in the rank of about millions of yuan a month.
还有一种背书人的角色:ICO项目发行时,会找背书人来站台,这些人要么在币圈混迹已久,有一定号召力,要么就是在学界、金融机构或互联网公司担任要职。只要为ICO项目背书,就有机会参与分成。
There is also the role of an endorser: when an ICO project is issued, it will be placed on the podium with a endorsed person who has been in currency circles for a long time, has a certain appeal power, or holds a prominent position in academic circles, financial institutions, or Internet companies.
这后来演化成了私募代投的掮客游戏。项目方会向代投私募机构或相关自媒体提供一定的内部赠币或低价认购额度。价格通常为ICO销售价格基础上的3折到8折不等。
The price usually varies from 3 to 8 discounts based on the ICO sales price.
在币圈上演了许许多多这样的故事。
A lot of these stories have been played in the currency circles.
一位在币圈内颇有影响力的资深人士自立门户后,发起私募代投,几个礼拜就赚了上千万,有的ICO项目找他,发行价如果是两元,他8毛钱就能把份额拿到手,再一块五转售给下家。相当于自己变成了一级代理商。然后他再将份额层层分发,他的门徒们则继续拉群售卖,也能赚到差价。对于这种币圈大V,会有相当多的ICO项目求他推销。
After a senior figure with influence in the currency circle became self-reliant, he launched a private fund-raising campaign, making millions of dollars in a few weeks, and some of the ICO projects went to him. If the price was two dollars, he would get his share and sell it to the next family for another five cents. It was equivalent to becoming a first-tier agent. Then he distributed the shares, while his disciples continued to sell and earned the difference. For the large V in the currency, there would be a lot of ICO projects for him to sell.
一时间,这样的拉群举动在朋友圈蔚然成风。还有一些币圈大V光是发文章荐币,或是开通小密圈来对用户收取费用,也能日进斗金。更多真假莫辨的信息充斥着整个币圈,噪音早已掩盖了真相,而多空双方都在借各类消息牟利。
There are also large-scale V-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L. More real information is full of money, noise is already hidden, and both sides are profiting from all kinds of information.
1月22日在一个微信群中,有用户群发信息喊冤,“目前确认XX站台的XX项目圈钱跑路,项目方失联。”很快又有大V出面辟谣,声称跑路纯属子虚乌有。
On 22 January, there was a group of users who complained that “it was now confirmed that the XX project circle on platform XX had lost its money and that the project had lost touch with each other.” There was a quick rumour that the road was completely empty.
动荡的市场中,庄家也趁机收割散户,软软君回忆了他惊心动魄的经历:“交易所是24h永不眠的,庄家趁没人一到下半夜就开始砸盘,一砸就砸透了,早上一睁眼非常恐慌,这一觉睡得亏到姥姥家了,到下午,庄家又开始拉升。那段时间,每天这样,非常痛苦,没有睡过一个好觉。”
In the turbulent market, the banker also took the opportunity to harvest the house, and the soft man recalled his amazing experience: "The exchange is 24h never sleeps, the dealer breaks the plate while no one gets there in the middle of the night, and the morning when he opens his eyes and panics, the sleep falls to his grandmother's house, and in the afternoon, the bankers rises again. Every day, it is so painful that no one sleeps better."
而交易所则是旱涝保收的收割者,它会对ico团队收取“上币费”,单此一项,有的高达数千万。一个代币团队人士说,前两个月新的币越来越多,韭菜都不够用了,一些新的币上来就破发,最后草草募集几千万,还不如不上,“这个圈子离钱太近,一切的游戏规则都是金钱开路。”
And the exchange is the harvester of the dry and flood harvest, and it will charge the Co team a “up-front fee” of tens of millions of dollars. A token team said that the last two months had seen a growing number of new coins, that they were not enough, that some of the new ones had broken their hair, that they had raised tens of millions of dollars, and that, "This circle is too close to the money, that all the rules of the game are money."
交易所的丰厚利润,并不是秘密——“OKEX、火币这类头部平台一天的交易额就在一百亿人民币上下,这样的交易所,光手续费一天就可以收一个亿,一年下来利润可能是百亿量级,非常可怕。就连很多长尾的交易所,每个月也能赚到几千万手续费。”上述交易所人士称。
The exchange’s lucrative profits are not a secret – “OKEX, a gun price, and a head platform like this is worth more than RMB 10 billion a day, and such an exchange can charge a billion yuan a day, and the profit may be 10 billion a year, which is terrible. Even many long-end exchanges can earn tens of millions a month.” According to these exchanges.
日交易额达到168亿人民币的币安,11月发行了自己的平台币——币安币,市值一度达到150亿,在下跌之后仍然有近90亿市值,这为交易所开辟了新的财路。
A currency of 16.8 billion yuan was traded on a daily basis, and in November it issued its own platform currency — a currency of 15 billion dollars at a once-deep market value — which, after a fall, still stands at nearly 9 billion dollars, opening up new financial avenues for the exchange.
相比其他还只是停留在构想层面的项目,币安已经属于见得着钱的了,一出来马上就遭到哄抢。
Compared to other projects that remain at the conceptual level, currency security is already visible and is being robbed as soon as it comes out.
“我拿到手之后,翻了几十倍都不止,但也正是因为ICO这件事,他们刚刚就被喝茶了。”和币安同样主打币币交易的一家平台的COO对AI财经社说。
"When I got my hand, I went up dozens of times, but it's also because of the ICO that they've just been drinking tea." COO from a platform that deals in coins with AI financially and socially.
就在监管密切关注的同时,恢复元气后的老牌交易所火币和OKex开始效仿发行平台币的行为。1月20日晚间,火币发布公告称,由其注册在境外的火币Pro站推出基于区块链发行和管理的积分系统。仅仅几十分钟后,OKex也发布公告称,其战略合作伙伴OKB基金会发布应用代币OKB,两种新的平台代币呼之欲出。
In the evening of January 20, a tender announcement was issued that it was registered abroad to launch a system of points based on block chain issuance and management. Only a few minutes later, it was also announced that its strategic partner, the OKB Foundation, had issued an application of the token OKB, and that two new platforms were ready to do so.
迅速暴富让交易所改变世界的士气越发高涨,火币的CTO在社交平台高调地说,“我们老板放话了,不要问火币什么时候能上纳斯达克,我们和纳斯达克是竞争关系。”
Rapid and violent fortunes have increased the morale of the exchange to change the world, and the CTO of the gun says on the social platform, “Our boss has spoken, and don't ask when it's going to go to NASDAQ, and we're in competition with NASDAQ”.
这条状态下方,有好事者留言:“我觉得目标可以再大点,譬如美联储。”另一个好事者则附和:“对,比如,干掉美元。”
Under this state, there are good people who leave a message: "I think the target can be bigger, like the Fed." Another good person goes along with: "Yes, for example, kill the dollar."
万亿空气
在很多链圈人看来,币圈的人玩得有点过火。trustnote创始人周政军说,他的公司也有代币,但不是为了让员工拿去炒作,而是用于人才激励。技术研发质量越高,就越对数字货币本身价值提升有直接作用。
In the eyes of many chainers, the people in the currency circle play a little too much. The founder of trustnote, Zhou Juntao, said that his company also had tokens, not to get its employees to play, but to use them for talent incentives. The higher the quality of technology research and development, the more directly the value-added of digital money itself.
周政军还点出了一个代币在链圈流行的秘密。有些技术人员愿意接受数字货币其实是出于避税的考虑,“目前关于数字货币的纳税政策不明朗,基本上可以不用纳税。你想,如果哪天说你获得数字货币要纳税,不就变相承认数字货币的合法性了吗?”
Zhou’s military has also identified a secret that is popular in the chain. Some technologists are willing to accept digital money for tax avoidance. “The current tax policy on digital money is unclear, and it is basically tax-free.
但眼前,数字货币的价值被严重扭曲了。布局了区块链全产业链的天使投资人孙江涛表达了他对目前行业现状的失望,他们做过统计,目前市面上至少80%的ICO项目都是在数字货币生态包装下的“陷阱”,要么缺乏项目支撑,沦为传销手段,要么存在极大“水分”,“用区块链养猫养狗的游戏都算是不错的落地应用了。”
But now, the value of digital money is seriously distorted. The angel investor Sun Jiangtao, who laid out the whole industrial chain of the block chain, expressed his disappointment at the current state of the industry, which had counted that at least 80% of the ICO projects on the market were currently “traps” in the eco-package of digital money, either lacked project support and were used as a means of distribution, or had a huge “water mass”, and that the game of having cats and dogs in the block chain was a good place to use.
一位交易所人士告诉我,在币圈,最重要的是营销能力,“反正是一堆空气,只要你能帮人把币推销出去,给多少钱都行。”在他的眼中,区块链行业极其low,他们做的产品,卡顿、闪退,却能随便募资几个亿。
An exchangeman at Strong told me that in the currency circle, the most important thing was marketing power: “It's just a pile of air, as long as you can help people sell it.
“这个圈,三个月出现一个大佬,然后一个大佬消失。”他说,“新陈代谢异常剧烈。”但仍然有很多风险偏好更高的人想要进来。人类在过去创造的各种各样的金融想象力,都在这个领域集中爆发了。
"This circle, there's a big guy in three months, and then a big guy disappears." He says, "The metabolism is very intense." There are still many more risk-oriented people who want to come in. The various financial imaginations that humans have created in the past are concentrated in this field.
在移动互联网世界里,一条赛道一般只有两三个独角兽,区块链领域则非常特别,通过ICO和发行货币,达到10亿美金市值门槛的公司,多达数十家。在孙江涛眼中,现在前十大区块链项目,大多都没有应用场景,大部分是泡沫和空气,最终肯定会破灭。
In the mobile Internet world, a track typically consists of only two or three unicorns, while the area of block chains is very special, with as many as dozens of companies reaching the $1 billion market value threshold through ICO and issuing currency. In Sun Jiangtao’s eye, most of the top 10 block chain projects now have no applications, mostly foams and air, and are bound to break down.
拳王泰森代言的比特币ATM机落户在拉斯维加斯。@视觉中国
ICO本质是资产证券化,绕开了投行和交易所体系,无需经过审计和法律,就实现了小型IPO。
The essence of ICO is the securitization of assets, bypassing the investment and exchange system and achieving small IPOs without audit and law.
老虎证券创始人巫天华说,人类社会现在所采用的这套交易体系和信任机制,的确很浪费社会资源,但这种额外成本是为了确保交易安全。现阶段,在技术成熟前就绕开这套系统,用户体验是很爽,但风险很大。最后很可能会出现骗子比好人多,劣币驱逐良币的情况。这是现阶段区块链骗局丛生的一个原因。
The founder of tiger securities, Ichihua, said that the trading system and trust mechanisms that human society is now using are indeed a waste of social resources, but that the extra cost is to ensure the safety of the transaction. At this stage, when the system is bypassed before technology matures, the user experience is good, but risky.
“空气币其实就是传销的高级形态,区块链概念对传销来说,的确是绝佳的题材。传销这么多年都没打掉呢,而且传销好歹几百号人呆在一个地方,很容易暴露,但空气币就没那么容易被发现了。”一家代币的负责人说。
"Air coins are really a high-profile form of distribution, and the block chain concept is an excellent subject for distribution. They haven't been out for years, and hundreds of passers-ins are in one place, easily exposed, but air coins are not that easy to detect." The head of a token says.
周政军算是链圈老干部了。他对币圈这帮年轻人搞的花样充满忧虑:“这些骗子项目,都在消耗这个领域的资源,骗子掳走的多了,留给好好做事的就少了。”他担心整个行业都遭到灭顶之灾,链圈将要陪绑。
Zhou's army is an old cadre in the chain. He's worried about the young people in the currency ring: “These scams are draining resources in the field, they've taken away a lot, they've left less to do their job.” He fears that the whole industry will be destroyed and the chain will be tied up.
即使是认了真的人,也各怀心思。
Even if you recognize a real person, you've got to think about it.
孙江涛说,区块链行业有三个不同圈层,在过去很长时间,他们互相鄙视和隔阂——专注于数字资产的人瞧不起闷头苦干做公链的,专注底层技术开发公链的人,不待见整天倒腾数字资产的币圈“土鳖”,而互联网巨头们,又很难放下身段向先行者寻求合作,他们依据传统经验另起炉灶,却往往事倍功半。
Sun Jiangtao said that there were three different circles in the block chain industry and that for a long time, they had despised each other and divided each other — those who focused on digital assets did not look like those who worked hard on public chains, those who focused on low-level technology to develop public chains, and those who spent all day pouring down digital assets as “treasurys”, while the Internet giants had difficulty putting down their lines of cooperation with their pioneers, who, based on their traditional experience, tended to do a lot of work.
尽管存在种种乱象,孙江涛仍然保持乐观。他认为,区块链领域目前浪费掉的资金还没有移动互联网那么多,而骗局和泡沫,其实是最好的投资者教育,投机心态先圈住了大家的关注度,才有机会慢慢统一认知,才有诞生伟大企业的机会。
Despite all the chaos, Sun Jiangtao remains optimistic. He believes that the money currently wasted in the block chain area has not moved as much as the Internet, and that scams and bubbles are, in fact, the best investor education.
经历了这么多轮大起大落后,有人发现自己的财富观已经变了。“我现在觉得钱不是钱,只是玩游戏的筹码。能参与一次人类历史上的集体试错,也不算遗憾。”
After so many wheels of backwardness, some people find themselves in a different outlook of wealth. "I think money is not money, it's just a game chip. It's not a shame to be involved in a collective trial in human history."
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