市场对于比特币未来走势预期充满不确定性，发展仍需诸多因素配合｜威利｜比特币｜加密

　　渣打银行分析师预测，由于现货ETF持续大规模流入，比特币最早可能在本周末创下历史新高，并在今年年底达到15万美元。渣打银行外汇和数字资产研究主管杰弗里·肯德里克在一份报告中写道：“我预测比特币到2024年底将达到15万美元，到2025年底将达到20万美元。”他补充道，“如果明天(周五)公布的就业报告是积极的，我们预计它将在本周末达到历史新高。”

Chartered Bank Analyst predicts that Bitcoin may have reached an all-time high at the earliest this weekend as a result of the continued large-scale influx of spot ETFs, and will reach $150,000 by the end of this year. Jeffrey Kendrick, head of SARS, writes in a report: “I predict that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2024 and $200,000 by the end of 2025.” He adds, “If tomorrow's (Friday) employment reports are positive, we expect that they will reach an all-time high by the end of this week.”

　　肯德里克表示：“随着美国总统大选的临近，如果特朗普获胜，我们预计年底前将达到10万美元，此后将达到15万美元。”截至6日，Polymarket的加密货币交易员预计特朗普当选的可能性为56%，现任总统乔·拜登连任的可能性为36%。

Kendrick said: “As the United States presidential election approaches, if Trump wins, we expect to reach $100,000 by the end of the year and $150,000 thereafter.” As of 6 June, Polymarket's crypto-currency dealer expected Trump to be 56 per cent likely to be elected and current President Joe Biden 36 per cent likely to be re-elected.

　　自5月份以来，基于以太坊现货ETF的上市批准以及美国政界人士对加密货币行业的支持，人们对比特币和整个加密货币市场的情绪有所改善。近期，流入美国股市的比特币现货ETF的资金再次呈现上升趋势。比特币现货ETF截至周三5日连续17天录得净流入，4日净流入超过8.8亿美元，创3月份以来最高。

Since May, there has been an improvement in the mood for bitcoin and the entire crypto-currency market, based on the listing approval of the ETA spot ETF and the support of American politicians for the crypto-money industry. In recent times, the flow of funds to the United States stock market has resurfaced. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of 17 consecutive days as of Wednesday and Friday, with a net inflow of more than $880 million on 4 days, the highest since March.

　　投资专家、畅销书《富爸爸，穷爸爸》的作者罗伯特·清崎认为，到2024年8月，比特币的价格可能会达到35万美元。6日，AMB Crypto调查了清崎大胆预测的可能性有多大。

Robert Kiyzaki, an investment expert and author of the best-selling book, Rich Daddy, Poor Daddy, believes that by August 2024, the price of Bitcoin could reach $350,000. On 6 August, AMB Crypto investigated the possibility of a bold forecast of Kiyozaki.

　　行业重量级人物和市场分析师预计，到今年年底，比特币将突破当前6万美元至7.1万美元的价格区间。Galaxy Digital的迈克·诺沃格拉茨设定了如果突破7.3万美元的历史高点，到2024年底将达到10万美元的目标。另一位加密货币分析师PlanB预测，本次牛市期间比特币的最高价格将在2025年达到50万美元。

　　著名加密货币分析师威利·吴指出，清崎的预测过于大胆，短时间内难以实现。正如清崎预测的那样，比特币升至35万美元意味着两个月内将翻五倍。对此，威利·吴表示：“从统计上来看，到2025年这可能是可能的。2024年发生这种情况的可能性很小。”

's famous cryptographic currency analyst Willy Wu said that Qingzaki's predictions were too bold and difficult to achieve in a short time. As Qingzaki predicted, an increase of $350,000 in bitcoin would mean a fivefold increase in two months. In response, Willie Wu said, “Statistically, it may be possible by 2025.” is unlikely to happen in 2024.

　　据AMBCrypto报道，威利·吴的预测部分得到了库存流量(S2F)模型的支持，该模型基于对比特币供应下降的预测。根据这个模型，随着未来比特币供应量的减少，比特币的价值预计会上升。因此，2024年8月的比特币价格可能达到8万至8.5万美元，远低于清崎预期的35万美元。

reports that Willy Wu's forecast is partially supported by the S2F model, which is based on projections of a decline in the supply of bitcoin. According to this model, the value of bitcoin is expected to rise as the future supply of bitcoin decreases. As a result, Bitcoin prices in August 2024 may reach $80,000 to $85,000, well below the projected $350,000 for Kiyozaki.

　　通过渣打银行分析师的预测和市场反应可以看出，市场对于比特币未来走势的预期充满了不确定性。尽管部分分析师持乐观态度，但比特币价格的大幅上涨仍需诸多因素配合。

shows, through the predictions and market reactions of slag bank analysts, that the market is full of uncertainty about the future of Bitcoin. Despite the optimism of some analysts, a large increase in bitcoin prices needs to be matched by a number of factors.