以太坊重出江湖：两周大涨78%，暴涨背后危机四伏

上线五年后，以太坊再次成为关注焦点。

Five years after coming online, Ether was again the focus of attention.

在过去的两个星期里，以太坊是币圈当之无愧的明星项目，其币价一路狂飙。

In the past two weeks, the Etherkom has been a well-deserved star project with a tumultuous currency.

从7月21日的低点233美元，到8月2日的高点415美元，以太坊在不到两周时间里大涨78%，创下两年来新高。

From a low of $233 on 21 July to a high of $415 on 2 August, the Ethio increased by 78 per cent in less than two weeks, reaching a new high in two years.

不仅如此，以太坊还领涨了本轮数字货币牛市。在主流币种中，以太坊的涨势最为凶猛——在以太坊上涨78%的同时，比特币的涨幅只有32%。

Moreover, it has also increased the market for the current round of digital money. Among the mainstream currencies, the most violent increases were in the same currency — 78 per cent in the same way as in the same currency, only 32 per cent in Bitcoin.

“买了比特币的在暗喜，买了以太坊的则在狂欢。”币圈玩家张鹏表示，“那个令人熟悉的以太坊，终于回来了。”

"The one who bought the bitcoin was in the dark, the one who bought the ether was in the carnival." The currency-circumstrator Jang Peng said, "The familiar Ether has finally returned."

在过去的两年里，以太坊一度备受质疑。

The past two years have been a time of serious questioning.

2018年1月后，以太坊币价进入了漫长的下跌周期。火币数据显示，2018年1月，ETH最高价达到了1422美元。而两年后的2020年1月，ETH最低价仅有133美元，不及最高位的十分之一。

In January 2018, it entered a long downward cycle. The gun money data show that in January 2018 it reached a maximum price of $1422. In January 2020, two years later, the lowest price was only $133, less than one tenth of the highest price.

以太坊市值第二的宝座，曾几度被瑞波币占据。它引以为豪的“世界计算机”概念，不再受业界追捧。基于公链的DApp大批倒闭。早年募集大量ETH的ICO团队们，也几乎卖光了手中的全部ETH。（详见《币价20天暴跌44%，以太坊真的要凉凉？》）

The second-largest seat in the market market in Taiku was held by Riboco several times. It was proud of the concept of a “world computer” that was no longer pursued by the industry. The public chain-based Dapp collapsed in large numbers. The ICO team, which collected a large number of ETHs in early years, sold almost all of it. (For more details, the currency fell by 44% in 20 days, so that the community really cools down.)

“公链已经没有价值了，以太坊作为曾经的‘公链之王’，自然也会式微。”一位币圈从业者指出。

“The public chain is no longer of value, and it's natural to use the talisman as “the king of the public chain.” A currency-circumstancer points out.

但如今，以太坊却在逐渐复苏，甚至强势崛起。

Today, however, the Etherphus are recovering and even rising in strength.

以太坊的重新崛起，不止于币价。在交易次数上，Etherscan数据显示，自今年1月开始，以太坊的每日交易量呈明显上升趋势。年初，其交易次数最低只有43.55万笔，而近期，这一数字是126.14万笔，涨幅高达189%。

In terms of the number of transactions, Ethescan data show a marked increase in the daily volume of transactions in Ethens since January of this year. At the beginning of the year, the lowest number of transactions was 435.5 million, compared to the recent figure of 126.14 million, an increase of 189 per cent.

以太坊日交易量走势图

with a picture of the trade volume ................................................................................................................

在日活跃地址数上，BitInfoCharts数据显示，以太坊日活跃地址数由今年1月1日的208292个，增加至8月4日的623042个，整体涨幅达199%。短短7个月时间里，以太坊的日活跃用户比原来多了两倍。

In terms of the number of daily active addresses, BitInfoCharts data show that the number of daily active addresses in Taiku increased from 20,8292 on 1 January to 6,23,042 on 4 August, an overall increase of 199%. In a short period of seven months, the number of daily active users is twice as high as before.

近两个月来，以太坊的全网未确认交易数也居高不下。6月30日，以太坊全网未确认交易数为107773笔；到了8月4日，这一数字变为了154839笔，涨幅43%。

In the last two months, the number of unrecognizable transactions in Ethio has also remained high. On 30 June, the number of unrecognised transactions in Ethio was 107773; by 4 August, this figure had turned to 154839, a 43 per cent increase.

大量未确认交易的出现，推升了以太坊的交易手续费。Etherscan数据显示，自今年5月起，以太坊交易手续费便出现了明显的攀升趋势。3个月来，以太坊的手续费至少上涨了600%。

Ethercan data show that since May of this year, there has been a marked upward trend in the use of etherms. In the last three months, at least 600 per cent has been increased in the use of etherms.

“币价与网络活跃程度齐涨，说明以太坊的复苏不仅仅是简单的‘拉盘’。”区块链研究员孙原对一本区块链表示。

“The rise in currency prices and network activity suggests that the recovery of Etherom is more than a simple `plate'.” Sun Hara, a block chain researcher, said about a block chain.

以太坊的火爆，也让V神再次活跃。最近两周，他发了15条推文，而此前两周只发了6条。“以太坊是中本聪思想的延续。”8月4日，V神在Twitter上如是写道。

The fire in Etheria has also made V God active again. In the last two weeks, he has sent 15 tweets, compared to six in the previous two weeks. “Etheria is a continuation of the idea of middle-class benevolence.” On August 4, the V God wrote on Twitter.

02 原因

02 Reason

ETH领涨币市，以太坊再次崛起，靠的是什么？

It's the currency-up market. Etherwood's re-emerged. What's it on?

多位业内人士指出，以太坊复苏的最大推手，就是时下火热的DeFi。

According to a number of insiders, the biggest push for recovery in Ethio is the feverish DeFi.

2020年，DeFi不再是少数极客的专宠，而是成为了几乎所有币圈玩家热议的焦点。

In 2020, DeFi was no longer the exclusive preserve of a handful of guests, but was the focus of much debate among almost all currency players.

“最近，各大主流钱包APP都内置了Compound等DeFi应用，玩家们参与DeFi变得更容易了。”张鹏对一本区块链表示，“现在，币圈不玩DeFi的，都觉得自己跟不上时代了。”

"Recently, major mainstream wallets APPs have built up DeFi applications like Comboud, and it's easier for players to participate in DeFi." Zhang Peng said to a block chain, "Now, the coins don't play DeFi, they don't feel like they're keeping up with the times."

而在海外，DeFi更是备受追捧。比如说，在美国，DeFi已经成了币圈玩家的重要投资领域。

And overseas, DeFi is much more popular. In the United States, for example, DeFi has become an important investment area for currency players.

“在一部分极客眼中，建立在代码上的DeFi不受人性操控，比金融大鳄们提供的金融产品更‘靠谱’。”孙原对一本区块链表示。

“In part of the extreme eye, the code-based DeFi is free from human manipulation and is more `comprehensive' than the financial products provided by the financial crocodiles.” Sun Hara indicated a block chain.

在美国，银行存款、国债等“保本”型投资品的利率极低，但DeFi却可以实现较高的利率。因此，不止币圈玩家，一批小白用户也开始进入DeFi市场投资。

In the United States, the interest rate on bank deposits, state debt, etc., is extremely low, but DeFi can achieve higher interest rates. As a result, not only currency players, but also small white users have started to invest in the DeFi market.

而以太坊，则是支撑几乎所有DeFi服务的公链平台。DeFi助推以太坊，在情理之中。

It is a public-chain platform that supports almost all of the DeFi services.

“这就像当初的ICO，玩家们要想参与ICO，必须要先买ETH。现在的DeFi也一样，没有ETH，就玩不了DeFi。”张鹏说，“所以，ETH的币价随之水涨船高，是必然的。”

"This is like the original ICO, where players have to buy ETH first. And now DeFi, too, can't play DeFi without ETH." Zhang Peng said, "So, it's inevitable that the prices of ETH will rise."

而DeFi的崛起以及以太坊的复苏，也给区块链从业者带来了更多思考。

The rise of DeFi and the recovery of Etheria have also brought more thought to practitioners of the block chain.

“它给我们的启示是，金融仍然是区块链领域最具活力的应用场景，它比所谓的‘区块链游戏’‘区块链社交’更具吸引力。”网录科技副总裁李尼对一本区块链表示。

“It inspires us that finance remains the most dynamic application in the area of block chains, and that it is more attractive than the so-called ‘block chain game’ ‘block chain socialization’.” Renie, Vice-President of Weblog Technology, said a block chain.

DeFi推动了以太坊的复苏，而以太坊也是DeFi应用落地的绝佳平台。

DeFi contributed to the recovery of Etheria, which is also an excellent platform for DeFi applications.

首先，EOS等新一代公链广泛采用的DPoS共识机制，至今仍然存在着“为性能牺牲去中心化”的质疑。因此，DeFi社区更青睐于更加去中心化的以太坊。

First, the DPOS consensus mechanism, which is widely used in the new generation of public chains, such as EOS, continues to be challenged by “decentralization for performance sacrifice.” As a result, the DeFi community prefers a more decentralised Ether.

其次，以太坊经过五年的稳定运转，已经建立起了完备的生态体系。“从钱包、区块链浏览器到开发工具，DeFi玩家、开发者都有充分的选择，可以迅速上手。”李尼表示，以太坊在链圈“第一公链”的地位仍然难以动摇。

Second, after five years of steady operation, Etheria has built up a well-established ecological system. “From wallets, block-chain browsers to development tools, DeFi players and developers have a full choice and can move quickly.” Leni states that the position of Ether in the chain “first chain” remains unshakeable.

如今，整个DeFi产业已经在以太坊上落地生根，发展壮大。而新的DeFi项目，也难以逃离以太坊这片土壤。

Today, the entire DeFi industry has taken root and grown in Ether. And the new DeFi project is hard to escape from this soil.

“现在的DeFi玩家，会在MakerDAO上获取Dai，在Compound上借贷，在Uniswap上买币卖币。这些平台都基于以太坊。”孙原表示，“这有点像玩积木，如果用的都是乐高积木，大家就搭建高楼大厦。如果有人用了其他品牌的积木，就得另起炉灶。”

"Now the DeFi player will get Dai on MakerDAO, borrow on Comboud, and buy coins on Uniswap. These platforms are based on Ethal. "Sunwon says, "It's kind of like a log. If it's all Lego, you build a tower. If someone uses other branded blocks, you have to start another stove."

DeFi生态也是如此。如果一个新的DeFi项目选择以太坊之外的公链，它就无法借助DeFi社区已经搭建起来的的基础设施，相当于自找麻烦。

The same is true of the DeFi ecology. If a new DeFi project chooses a public chain outside the courthouse, it cannot access the infrastructure already built by the DeFi community, which is tantamount to asking for trouble.

这些DeFi产品，进一步巩固了以太坊的江湖地位。“新一代公链，除非能带来令人匪夷所思的神奇技术，否则不可能颠覆以太坊。”李尼对一本区块链表示。

These DeFi products further entrench Ether's position as a river and lake. “The new generation of public chains cannot destabilize Ether unless it brings with it incredible technology.

03 未来

03 The future

坐稳第一公链“宝座”的以太坊，未来将会如何？

What will be the future of Ethal, which holds the first chain of thrones?

在以太坊经历了不小的涨幅后，一部分玩家与从业者仍对以太坊的未来持续看涨。

Some players and practitioners continue to see the future of Ether after having experienced a significant increase.

数字货币交易所BitMEX联合创始人Arthur Hayes就预测，以太坊的下一个目标是500美元。

Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of the Digital Currency Exchange BitMEX, predicted that the next target for Tails would be $500.

但大部分从业者则指出，眼下的以太坊仍然面临着不小的危机。

However, most of the practitioners pointed out that the Etherms were still facing a considerable crisis.

首先，DeFi给以太坊带来的最大考验，在于性能。

First of all, the greatest test that DeFi has brought Ether is performance.

以太坊的复苏，不仅推升了币价，也推升了平台交易量与手续费的大涨。

The recovery in Etheria has not only boosted currency prices, but has also boosted the volume of platform transactions and fees.

“现在以太坊一次交易的手续费接近1美元。完成一次Compound借贷要进行多次交易，手续费最高可能会达到10美元以上。”张鹏说。

“Now, the fee is close to US$ 1.

提升以太坊平台的性能，成为当务之急。

Enhancing the performance of the Etherm platform is a priority.

8月4日，备受瞩目的以太坊2.0计划迎来最新进展，其测试网Medalla已经启用。而以太坊2.0正式网也有望在2-3个月后上线。

On August 4th, the high-profile Telecom 2.0 project was launched with the launch of its testing network Medalla, which is expected to be online in two to three months.

“为了提升性能，以太坊2.0有两大升级，一是将共识机制转为PoS，二是利用分片提升并发性能。”李尼介绍，“相比之下，PoS的技术并不复杂，但分片的公链平台几乎无先例可循，开发难度极大。”

“In order to enhance performance, there are two major upgrades in Etheria 2.0, namely, the conversion of consensus mechanisms to PoS, and the use of fragments to upgrade and develop performance.” In his presentation, “The technology of PoS, by contrast, is not complex, but the public-chain platform of the fragments is almost unprecedented and difficult to develop.”

其次，对以太坊来说，DeFi是一把危险的双刃剑。

Secondly, for Etherom, DeFi is a dangerous double-edged sword.

“DeFi显然为以太坊创造了新的繁荣，但也为以太坊埋下了危机的种子。”孙原表示。

“DeFi apparently created a new prosperity for Etheria, but also planted the seeds of crisis for Ether.” Sun Hara said.

DeFi的核心，仍然是传统金融业务的核心，即抵押借贷。受制于技术架构，眼下DeFi只能进行数字货币抵押借贷，而无法进行信贷或法币借贷。“但显然，人们对于数字货币借贷的需求，没那么大。”李尼指出。

DeFi’s core remains the core of the traditional financial business, mortgage lending. Subject to the technological architecture, DeFi can only borrow in digital currency and cannot borrow in credit or French. “But obviously, the demand for digital money lending is not that great.”

所以，Compound等项目才会推出“流动性挖矿”等新玩法，以此激励玩家在平台上进行借贷。

As a result, projects such as Compound have introduced new games such as “mobility mining” as an incentive for players to borrow on platforms.

在挖矿机制的刺激下，一些玩家开始在Compound上反复借出、贷得资产，以获取COMP代币。而这些反复借贷的行为，推高了整个DeFi生态的系统性风险。

Stimulating by mining mechanisms, some players begin to borrow and borrow assets on Compound to obtain COMP tokens. These repeated borrowings raise systemic risks for the entire DeFi ecology.

“总的来看，DeFi的系统性风险正在加剧。与传统金融相比，DeFi过于理想化，缺乏传统金融的理性与逻辑性。特别是一些DeFi项目引入流动性挖矿机制后，许多人都闻到了FCoin的味道。”李尼说。

“In general, DeFi’s systemic risks are increasing. DeFi is too ideal in comparison to traditional finance, lacking the rationality and logic of traditional finance.

与其他币圈项目相比，DeFi系统性风险带来的结果，可能更严重。

The results of the DeFi systemic risk are likely to be more severe than those of other currency circles.

“以往的ICO项目暴跌大多是人为导致，即项目方砸盘、割韭菜。因此，单个项目的币价走向往往不会影响整体市场。”孙原表示，“但DeFi项目大多共生共荣，一旦某一个DeFi项目暴雷，可能会导致整个DeFi大厦的崩塌。”

“Most of the previous collapse of the ICO project was man-made, i.e., the crash of the project side and the cutting of vegetables. As a result, the direction of the currency of the individual project often does not affect the overall market.” Sun-won said, “But most of the DeFi project is co-symbiotic, and the collapse of the entire DeFi building could occur as a result of a thunderstorm on a particular DeFi project.”

李尼认为，在这波DeFi热潮散去后，未来可能只有三五个DeFi项目能够幸存，其他项目则会重蹈大多数ICO项目的覆辙。

According to Rennie, only three or five DeFi projects may survive in the future after this wave of deFi has spread, while others will repeat the mistakes of most ICO projects.

而一旦DeFi集体暴雷，以太坊也将受到冲击。“就像ICO泡沫破灭后一样，以太坊币价会暴跌。”

And in the event of a collective thunderstorm by DeFi, the Ether House will be hit. "As with the collapse of the ICO bubble, the price of the ether will fall."

到那时，以太坊的未来，会变得更加模糊。

By that time, the future of the Etherm will become even more blurred.

DeFi的泡沫，已经引起了一些人的关注。

The bubble of DeFi has attracted some attention.

有从业者对一本区块链表示，一些ICO时期捞钱无数的“币圈大佬”也开始重出江湖，酝酿推出自己的“DeFi项目”。

Some practitioners have indicated to a block chain that some of the ICO's “coin ringers”, who had made numerous payments during the ICO period, have also begun to re-emerge and develop their own “DeFi project”.

“只要挂上DeFi的头衔，就能捞钱。”这些“币圈大佬”如此吹嘘。

"If you put on the title of DeFi, you'll get paid." These "coins" are so bragging.

在DeFi助推下重出江湖的以太坊，已经与DeFi强势绑定。等DeFi浪潮退去后，以太坊的未来又会如何？

The Etheria, which helped DeFi to get back out of the river, has been tied up with DeFi. What will happen to the future of the Etherko after the DeFi wave has subsided?