回顾5年简史，我们来预估一下以太坊2020年价格

“经过2019年一年的调整和消化之后，以太坊价格基本稳定在100-300美元之间。这也是市场经过一年多的反复修正打磨出来的。”

“After a year of adjustment and digestion in 2019 xff0c; the price of the taupulega has remained essentially stable at between $100 and $300. The market has also been sharpened after more than a year of repeated revisions.”

本文来源：蓝狐笔记；原标题：《以太坊价格简史：沉沉浮浮的启示录》；本文谨代表作者个人观点，不代表火星财经立场，该内容旨在传递更多市场信息，不构成任何投资建议。

source & #xff1a; Blue Fox Note & #xff1b; former title & #xff1a; Apocalypse & #xff1a; Apocalyptic Apocalypse & #xff1b; > > xff0c; does not represent the financial position of Mars xff0c; content is intended to convey more market information xff0c; does not constitute any investment proposal.

以太坊不同于单纯的数字货币，它为区块链引入了智能合约。它开启了区块链项目的新类型。那么，作为加密世界市值第二大的项目，它的价格是如何变迁的？价格变化因何而起？虽然每次价格变动的具体原因都是不同的，但其历史还是可以给我们带来一些启示。

It introduces smart contracts for block chains. It opens a new type of block chain project. Then & #xff0c; as the second largest encrypt market value in the world & #xff0c; how its price changes xff1f; xff1f; price changes xff1f; although the specific reasons for each price change are different xff0c; its history still gives us some insight.

暴涨暴跌的亮相

以太坊于2015年7月30日发布了它的第一个版本，也就是所谓的Frontier。一周之后，以太坊在交易所上市。根据Coinmarketcap的记录，2015年的8月8日，以太坊上交易所（Kraken）后的价格为2.77美元，当天的交易量达到205,324美元。

It released its first version xff0c on July 30, 2015, the so-called Frontier. A week later, xff0c; it was listed on the exchange. According to Coinmarketcap records xff0c; xff0c of August 8, 2015; xff08; Krakenff09; the subsequent price is $2.77 xff0c; transactions amounted to $205,324 the same day.

就2015年来说，这个开端可以说非常亮眼。相对于其在2014年7到9月的众筹价格来说，算是开门红。当时1ETH的众筹价格大概是0.3到0.45美元左右，也就是其上市后的涨幅超过6倍。

For 2015 xff0c; this start can be said to be a very bright one. xff0c; it's a door-opener in comparison to its July-September 2014 public fund-raising price. at that time raised about US$ 0.3 to 0.45 xff0c; that's more than six times the increase since it was marketed.

但好景不长，4天后价格大幅下跌，到8月11日，其价格跌至0.67美元左右。下跌原因可能是早期投资者抛售导致，这跟之前很多代币刚上交易所时的轨迹非常类似。

But the good news is not long xff0c; prices fell sharply after four days xff0c; by 11 August xff0c; their prices fell to around 0.67 dollars. Perhaps the reason for the decline is that early investors dump xff0c; this is very similar to the trajectory of many of the previous generations when they first entered the exchange.

不过到8月14日，价格反弹至1.98美元，是三天前的三倍多，交易量也达到470多万美元。但这只不过是暂时反弹而已。随后，以太坊价格一路向下，直至2015年10月22日，以太坊价格跌至历史最低点0.42美元。不过，从早期众筹参与者的角度看，以太坊历史上基本没有跌破众筹价。下跌时期大约持续了2个半月。

But by August 14, xff0c; the price rebounded to US$ 1.98 xff0c; it was more than three times xff0c three days ago; and the volume of transactions reached more than US$ 4.7 million. This was only a temporary rebound. Then xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xfff0c; xff0c; xfff0c; , , , ,

稳住脚跟的1美元时代

在2015年10月22日跌至历史最低点之后，经过一周多的调整，以太坊逐渐回到了围绕1美元上下波动的时代，直到2016年的1月份。

After falling to historical lows on 22 October 2015, after more than a week of adjustments & #xff0c; the Etherworld gradually returned to an era of fluctuations around a dollar & #xff0c; until January 2016.

这段时期以太坊举行了Devcon-1开发者大会，也就是2015年11月9日到13日，此次大会让以太坊引起了更多人的关注。这种活动有利于增加人们对以太坊未来价值的预期，从而将其价格稳定在了1美元左右，没有继续下跌。

During this period, Devcon-1 Developer Conference & #xff0c; i.e. November 9-13, 2015 & #xff0c; the conference brought more attention to it. The event helped to increase expectations of the future value of the community & #xff0c; thus stabilizing its prices at around US$ 1 & #xff0c; it did not continue to fall.

经历早期的暴涨和暴跌后，且经过历时2个半月的调整，市场对ETH的最终价格逐步达成一定的共识，基本上在1美元上下波动。恰巧的是，这一时期也维持了大约2个半月左右。

After the early surges and collapses xff0c; strong > and after two and a half months of adjustment xff0c; market consensus over the final prices of ETH xff0c; and movement around a dollar. happens to be xff0c; this period also lasts for about two and a half months.

向10美元时代跃迁

这是以太坊价格史上的第一次真正跃迁。从2016年1月初开始到3月中旬，以太坊价格从1美元左右跃升至10美元以上。这个过程也花了大约2个月左右的时间。

This is the first real leap in the history of taupulega prices. From early January to mid-March 2016 xff0c; and from around US$ 1 to over US$ 10. This process also took about two months.

这一时期的主要事件是对以太坊更稳定版本（Homestead）发布的预期，在3月14日，最高价格达到15美元。以太坊的总市值超过11亿美元，进入独角兽级别。

The main event during this period was the more stable version of the Etheria & #xff08; Homestead & #xff09; the release of expected & #xff0c; on March 14 & #xff0c; the maximum price was $15. The total market value of the Etherm exceeds $1.1 billion & #xff0c; entering the Unicorn level.

不过随着3月14日Homestead硬分叉发布之后，利好消息消化完毕，以太坊价格开始下跌，于4月30日跌至7.39美元的谷底。不过随后的一段时间围绕10美元左右上下波动。这一时期简称为以太坊价格史上的“10美元时代”。10美元时代是以太坊价格史上持续最长的时期，从2016年3月直到2017年2月中旬，大约持续了11个月左右。

But with the release of Homestead's hard fork on March 14, xff0c; the good news digested xff0c; the beginning of falling xff0c at Tailing's price; and the downfall to $7.39 on April 30th. But the ensuing period fluctuated around about $10. This period was called the “$10 era” in the history of Taiping's price. 10 was the longest period in the history of Tailing's price xff0c; from March 2016 until mid-February 2017 xff0c; it lasted about 11 months.

从上述事件看，Homestead版本的发布是以太坊从1美元时代跃迁至10美元时代的关键事件。

From the above events, xff0c; the release of Homestead was a key event in the transition of Tai Pa from the dollar to the $10 era.

此外，2016年期间还发生过一次较大的涨跌。这都与The DAO事件相关。The DAO开启了以太坊的众筹。鉴于The DAO项目筹集了1,200万个ETH，在当时价值1.5亿美元。这推动了人们对以太坊前景的乐观预期，期间的价格曾经在2016年6月16日拉升到了历史新高18.43美元。

In addition, xff0c; in 2016, there was a major ups and downs. This was all related to the DAO event. The DAO started the campaign for Etheria. raised 12 million ETH& #xff0c in view of the DAO project; at that time, it was worth $150 million. boosted optimism about the future of Etheria xff0c; prices for the period rose to an historic high of $18.43 on 16 June 2016.

但好景不长，随后发生了黑客攻击事件。The DAO被黑客盗取价值5000万美元的ETH。人们高涨的热情瞬间被浇灭，在随后的半年多时间里以太坊价格一直处于向下的趋势，不过基本上还能维持在10美元左右，最低价格出现在2016年12月28日，跌至7.09美元。

The DAO was stolen by hackers for $50 million worth of ETH. The heightened enthusiasm was swept away & #xff0c; the following six months were a downward trend in the price of the taupulega & #xff0c; was, however, basically maintained at around $10 xff0c; the lowest price was on December 28, 2016 xff0c; fell to $7.09 .

10美元时代的ETH有两大的重要事件，一是Homestead的发布，二是The DAO项目事件。Homestead将以太坊从1美元拉升至10美元时代，让以太坊总市值突破10亿美元。The DAO项目原本拉升人们对以太坊未来的预期，但黑客事件极大阻击了以太坊向上的动能。

The ETH of the $10 era has two major events xff0c; the Homestead launch xff0c; and the DAO project. Homestead will push from $1 to $10.

围绕The DAO项目的黑客事件，以太坊社区分裂成为两个派别，一个派别主张通过硬分叉实现资金回滚，而另一派则反对这一行动，因为它违反了区块链不可篡改的精神。最后以太坊实施了硬分叉，产生了ETH和ETC两条链。这样的社区之争也导致以太坊价格下跌。即便如此，以太坊依然维持在10美元上下波动的时代，在这一阶段基本稳住脚跟。

The hacker incident around the DAO project & #xff0c; the division of the community into two factions & #xff0c; one faction advocating a return of funds through hard splits & #xff0c; the other opposed the move & #xff0c; because it violated the undisguised spirit of the block chain. Finally, the district implemented a hard split #xff0c; produced two chains of ETH and ETC. Such communal disputes also led to a fall in the price of the community.

期间以太坊还发生过DDos攻击等，这些负面的消息导致其在2016年12月处于价格低迷状态，不过仍然没有跌破7美元。

During this period, there were also DDOs attacks xff0c, etc.; these negative news led to a price depression xff0c in December 2016; however, it still did not fall by $7.

从2016年Homestead版本发布之后，即便遭遇众多负面事件，以太坊依然没有重回1美元的时代，这说明人们对以太坊的市场价格基本达成了相对稳定的共识。

After the release of the Homestead version in 2016 xff0c; despite the many negative events xff0c; and the fact that the Etherms have not returned to the $1 era xff0c; this suggests a relatively stable consensus on the market price of Ether.

突破100美元时代

从2017年2月中旬到6月中旬，在短短的4个月时间，以太坊从10美元左右涨至6月14日的400.42美元，最高涨幅达到40倍，这也是以太坊价格历史上涨幅最高的阶段。直接将以太坊价格从10美元时代拉升至数百美元的时代。

From mid-February to mid-June 2017 & #xff0c; in a short period of four months & #xff0c; from around $10 to $400.42 on June 14 & #xff0c; the highest 40-fold increase xff0c; and the highest historical increase in the prices of the same. The direct rise in the prices of the same will be from $10 to hundreds of dollars.

那么，这一阶段发生了什么事情？

So #xff0c; what happened at this stage #xff1f;

有几个值得关注的事情：

has a few things of concern #xff1a;

After more than a year of dream bubbles #xff0c; Ethio finally returned to the $100 era. There were several key points during this period xff1a;

1. 市场的非理性繁荣，导致早期的入局者开始套现离场，引发市场的连锁反应，以太坊也无法幸免。

The irrational boom of the market xff0c; leading to the departure of earlycomers xff0c; triggering a chain reaction of the market xff0c; and the inevitability of Etheria.

2. 整体加密市场的价格下跌，这也导致新加密项目上交易所后很难有亮眼表现，导致众筹项目开始走向萎缩，直接导致对ETH需求的下跌。

Prices in the overall encryption market have fallen xff0c; this has also led to difficulties showing up after the new encryption project has been placed on the exchange xff0c; has led to the start of crowd-movement xff0c; and has directly led to a decline in demand for ETH.

3. 雪上加霜的是，在2017年众筹期间筹集大量ETH代币的项目，疯狂地抛售ETH，进一步加剧了ETH的下跌之势。

Added to this is the xff0c; the project to raise large amounts of ETH coins during the 2017 campaign xff0c; the frenzied sale of ETHxff0c; and the further exacerbation of the downward trend in ETH.

4. 以太坊2018年君士坦丁堡硬分叉升级推迟以及比特币继续下跌，市场情绪悲观，以太坊跌破100美元（84.55美元）。

4. Delayed upgrading of the hard fork in Constantinople in 2018 and continued decline in Bitcoin xff0c; market pessimism xff0c; collapse of $100 xff08; $84.55 xff09;

5. 2018和2019年DeFi的发展、2019年2月康士坦丁堡升级和12月的伊斯坦布尔升级、以及对ETH2.0的预期为ETH价格稳住了局势。

5. The development of DeFi in 2018 and 2019, the escalation of Constantinople in February and Istanbul in December 2019 and the expectation of ETH 2.0 have stabilized the situation.

在2018年12月中旬，以太坊跌破100美元之后，2019年以太坊的价格基本上都稳定在100-300美元之间，直至今日。

xff0c in mid-December 2018; xff0c after a drop of $100 in the Taiwan; xff0c in 2019, largely stabilized at a price of $100-300; xff0c until today.

2020价格预测

从以太坊2015年8月上交易所到现在，已经过去了4年多，在短短几年时间，以太坊价格经历了过山车的发展。

From the start of the Etheria Exchange in August 2015 to now xff0c; more than four years have passed since xff0c; in just a few years xff0c; and through the development of a mountain car at taupulega prices.

经过2019年一年的调整和消化之后，以太坊价格基本稳定在100-300美元之间。这也是市场经过一年多的反复修正打磨出来的。随着以太坊基本面的提升和市场情绪的变化，以太坊的2020年终归不会是平稳的一年，随着利好消息的不断释放，或将维持在2019年价格上方。

After one year of adjustment and digestion in 2019, xff0c; stable in the range of US$ 100-300 with taupulega prices. This is what the market has been sharpened for more than a year. will not end in 2020 as a smooth year xff0c; as good news continues to release xff0c; or will remain above 2019 prices.

1. 首先是DeFi逐渐找到产品和市场的契合，当前DeFi项目锁定的ETH达到310万个，DeFi项目对ETH的需求会持续增加。

The first is the gradual identification of products and markets by DeFi xff0c; the current ETH targeted by the DeFi project amounts to 3.1 million xff0c; and the continuous increase in demand for ETH by the DeFi project.

2. 其次是以太坊layer 2的Rollup方案发展给人们带来期望，同时以太坊上的隐私解决方案（如Aztec）也带来更多可能性。

Second, the development of the Rollup programme in Taiyeer 2 has created expectations & #xff0c; and also privacy solutions in Taiye & #xff08; e.g. Aztec） and more possibilities.

3. 最后ETH2.0的PoS对ETH的需求预期也会导致市场将其反映到价格中。

The final ETH 2.0 PoS demand for ETH is also expected to result in the market reflecting it in prices.

以太坊这些基本面的发展加上2020年比特币的减半事件，有不少人对2020年的以太坊充满乐观。

The development of these fundamentals of the Etherm, coupled with the halving of Bitcoin by 2020 xff0c; many people are optimistic about the Etherm by 2020.

从上述发展看，对以太坊乐观是可以理解的。不过，这是常规的逻辑，如果出现一些黑天鹅事件，也可能会产生重大的反复，比如DeFi项目资产的安全性问题、比特币减半后一段时间可能的不确定性问题、其他不可预测的安全问题、监管问题等。

In the light of these developments, xff0c; optimistic about Etheria is understandable. but xff0c; this is conventional logic xff0c; if there are some black swan events xff0c; there may also be major repeats xff0c; such as the safety of the assets of the DeFi project, possible uncertainty over a period of time after the halving of Bitcoin, other unpredictable security issues, regulatory issues, etc.

总的来说，2020年的以太坊可能没有2017年那么激荡，但也有很大的概率比2019年的变化大得多。

In general, xff0c; the 2020 Etheria may not be as violent as it was in 2017 xff0c; however, there is also a much greater probability of change than in 2019.

?本文仅代表作者观点，不代表火星财经官方立场。

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