铅笔道 专栏作者 | 西柚财经
Pencil tunnels & nbsp; columnist
西柚财经：一家有意思的区块链媒体，由一群热情奔放的8090组成，团队成员均来自国内知名TMT科技媒体。
或许在不久的将来，挖矿很可能会成为头部矿霸之间的较量，中小矿工挖矿的事故会成为历史的尘埃。 Perhaps in the near future, mining is likely to become a competition between head-meat miners, and accidents involving small and medium-sized miners will become historical dust. 家里有矿的骄傲 最近，抖音上很流行赵本山一句话：啥家庭呀，家里有矿啊？ Lately, Chiu Benshan is popular: What family is there a mine at home? 这事儿要是搁币圈，你只要在家买一台矿机，就能自豪地对外宣称“我家里有矿”！ If it's a coin-laying ring, you can proudly claim & ldquao; I have a mine & rdquao in my house. 没错，这矿就是比特币。去年一波大牛市，比特币一举突破10万RMB，连华尔街的巨鳄都被撩得蠢蠢欲动，哪怕熊了大半年，价格还维持在7000美金！ That's right, the mine is Bitcoin. Last year, in a wave of big bulls, Bitcoin broke over 100,000 RMBs, and even alligators on Wall Street were stunned, even for six months, at a price of $7,000! 一个字形容，贵！ A word for it, expensive! 近10年来，风情万种的比特币吸引了无数矿工前来掘金。为了挖到更多比特币，大家都变着花招去折腾，从最初的CPU挖矿到GPU挖矿，到后来FPGA，到如今ASIC专业矿机，每次矿机算力的提升都是成百上千倍！ In the last 10 years, the popular bitcoin has attracted millions of miners to dig for gold. In order to dig more bitcoins, everyone has gone from the initial CPU to the GPU, to the later FPGA, to the current ASIC specialized miner, which is hundreds and thousands of times higher each time! “完爆、碾压、流弊！”纵观比特币挖矿历史，就像人类科技文明进化史一样荡气回肠！ & ldquo; Exploding, crushing, mishap! & & rdquao; looking through the history of bitcoin mining, like the history of the evolution of human science and technology! 如果说庞大算力是挖矿界第一符号标志，那么占据算力大头的矿霸就是比特币最大的威胁。 If the great calculus is the first symbol of the mining community, then the powerful magnate is the biggest threat to Bitcoin. 来自超级计算机的威胁 threat from supercomputer 有小伙伴曾忧心忡忡：要是天朝哪天盯上了比特币，用超级计算机挖矿，那所有矿工不就完犊子了吗？搞不好还能提早一个世纪把中本聪的梦想挖完！ A friend of mine was worried: if the sky were to stare at Bitcoin and dig with a supercomputer, all the miners would have finished their calves. Maybe he would have dug his dreams up a century earlier! 话题一出，许多吃瓜群众纷纷坐不住了： When the topic came up, many of the eating people couldn't sit: “超级计算机太他妈费电了！挖得越多，破产越快！” & ldquao; supercomputers are so fucking expensive! The more you dig, the faster you go bankrupt! & rdquao; “比特币才值几个钱呀！需要这么兴师动众？” & ldquo; bitcoin is worth a few dollars! Is it necessary to be so popular? & rdquao; “要是它敢和我抢饭碗，我自告奋勇作为CPU矿工代表第一个去xx门口拉横幅，捍卫咱广大矿工的权益！” & ldquo; if it dares to take a job with me, I volunteer to be the first CPU miner to pull a banner at the xx gate to defend the rights and interests of our vast number of miners! & rdquao; 那么，真相究竟是怎么样的呢？ So, what's the truth about it? 在解释这个问题之前，我们需要了解比特币设计机制。当年，中本聪在设计比特币之时，规定了比特币出块时间平均为10分钟一个（注意是平均10分钟），每1个区块里“包含”一定量的比特币，挖矿的难度每4年提升一倍。 Before explaining the problem, we need to know about the bitcoin design mechanism. In that year, when he designed the bitcoin, it was set at an average time of 10 minutes for bitcoins (note that it was 10 minutes on average) & ldquao in each block; including &rdquao; a certain amount of bitcoins, the difficulty of mining is doubled every four years. “平均10分钟一个区块”，哪怕数学是体育老师教的你，也不难计算出比特币一天生成的区块在144个左右。所以，在通常情况下比特币每天的产量不会变化太大，相对稳定。 & ldquo; an average of 10 minutes of block & rdquao; even if mathematics is taught to you by sports teachers, it is not difficult to calculate that bitcoin produces about 144 blocks a day. So, normally, bitcoin's daily output does not change too much and is relatively stable. 在2009年～2013年，每个区块包含50枚比特币，2013～2017年就是25枚；现在是2018年，每一个区块只包含了12.5枚比特币。 Between 2009 and 2013, each block contained 50 bitcoins, compared to 25 in 2013-2017; is now 2018 and each block contains only 12.5 bitcoins. 截止至今，比特币已经被挖出了1722万枚多。目前一天的产量只有2000枚不到！在4年之前的今天，一天产出可是有4000多枚呢！ To date, more than 1.72 million bitcoins have been excavated. There are less than 2,000 in one day. Four years ago today, there are more than 4,000 in one day! 所以，哪怕超级计算机真的布局比特币矿业，那最后一枚比特币也是在2140年被挖走，更不会因为超级变态算力矿机的出现，提早将比特币挖光。 So, even if the supercomputer was really a bitcoin mine, the last bitcoin was dug up in 2140, much less because of the arrival of the super-pathic calculator. 要是还有兜售矿机的生产商在瞎起哄，喊着“我司已量产一批超级矿机，能提早一个世纪挖光所有比特币”之类的说辞——我想，说不定中本聪本人也许会现身“辟谣”。 If there were also producers who were running around and shouting & ldquao; if we had already produced a batch of super-mine machines, we could dig up all bitcoins & rdquao a century earlier; or something like — & & mdash; if Nakamoto himself might appear & & & ldquao; rumours & & & rdquao; 为了平衡比特币出块效率，料事如神的中本聪在当初特别设计出了比特币挖矿难度动态调节的机制。 In order to balance the efficiency of Bitcoin, a mechanism for dynamic adjustment of Bitcoin's difficulty in mining was specifically designed by the nebula of God. 这个机制，简单地说就是以2016个区块为单位（计算可得差不多是12～14天），进行挖矿难度的横向调节。 This mechanism, in simple terms, is a horizontal adjustment of the difficulty of mining in 2016 blocks (which can be calculated as approximately 12-14 days). 如果上一个2016个区块由于挖得太快或者太慢，那么下一个2016个区块难度就会随之提升或者降低。最终的目的，就是为了实现“平均每10分钟完成一个区块的记账”目的。 If the previous 2016 blocks are dug too quickly or too slowly, the difficulty of the next 2016 blocks will increase or decrease. The ultimate goal is to achieve “ an average of 10 minutes to complete the account of a block & rdquao; the purpose. 从中可以看出，中本聪还是一个很注重比特币平衡发展的技术极客哦。 As you can see, he's also a technocrat who focuses on the balanced development of bitcoin. 不过当超级计算机霸占比特币矿池，那么所有中小矿工基本上可以洗洗睡了。 But when supercomputers take over bitcoin ponds, all small and medium miners can basically wash off. 在介入的第一波2016个区块中，超级计算机挖矿会嗨到爆，你手里的算力只能吃点蚊子肉；哪怕下一次难度调整上升，你手里的CPU，GPU，哪怕是ASIC矿机，在超级计算机面前也没啥能耐，胳膊拧不过大腿！ In the first wave of 2016 blocks of intervention, the supercomputer digs will be so high that you can only eat a little bit of mosquito meat in your hand; even if the next hard-on rises, the CPU, the GPU in your hand, even the ASIC miner, has little power in front of the supercomputer, and your arm can't shake your thighs! 矿霸就是酷炫，矿霸就是牛 "strong" is cool and "strong" is "strong" 当然，超级计算机的算力虽然强大，但是并不是为了专业挖比特币而生的，可能还干不过一些专业的比特币矿机。就像在武林之中，“格斗狂人”徐晓冬能轻易撂倒同样名声大振的六大派掌门人。 Of course, supercomputers, though powerful, are not born for professional bitcoins, and may not be able to do some professional bitcoins. Like in the war forest, “ the fighter & rdquao; and Xu Xiaodong can easily defeat the same famous six leaders. 前者重在实战，后者注重养身，练武的方向不同，算力亦是如此。 The former is in action, while the latter is in charge of preparation and training in different directions, as well as in arithmetic. 全网算力暴涨500亿倍 Web-wide computing surges by 50 billion times 比特币在人间逗留越久，矿工们需要付出越多的算力实现“爱的供养”。 The longer Bitcoin stays in person, the more arithmetic the miners will have to pay for & ldquao; the support of love & rdquao; 有人说，比特币9年曾暴涨了1600万倍足够牛逼，但更牛逼的其实是比特币全网算力，这货暴涨了整整500亿倍！ Some say that Bitcoin has soared 16 million times in nine years, but even more so is Bitcoin's full Internet capacity, which has soared by 50 billion times! 在今年5月份，比特币全网算力才刚刚突破30E/s！只隔了不到3个月，比特币全网算力接近翻番。据blockchain最新数据显示，比特币全网算力已经突破52E/s！ In May of this year, Bitcoin's full Internet capacity was just over 30E/s! Less than three months away, and bitcoin's full Web capacity nearly doubled. According to Blockchain's latest data, full Bitcoin's full Web capacity has passed 52E/s! 哎呀妈呀，这帮矿工简直是在用速度与激情在挖矿！ Oh, my God, these miners are digging with speed and passion! 如果把比特币算力做成指数基金，估计可能是唯一一个“只涨不跌”，不断震荡向上创新高的一条k线！ If the bitcoin is turned into an index fund, it is likely to be the only &ldquao; only up and down & & rdquao; and a kline with constant shocks up and up in innovation! 有人说，比特币算力更像是一台区块链永动机，一旦启动就不会停下，只会越来越疯狂。 Some say that bitcoin is more like a block chain forever. Once started, it won't stop. It's just getting crazy. 那么，比特币全网算力的背后意味着什么呢？ So, what does it mean to be behind Bitcoin's all-network computing? 通过比较“比特币全网算力历史趋势”和“比特币同期价格历史趋势”，我们发现其实全网算力和历史趋势之间没有存在很强的正相关，甚至可以说基本不相关。 By comparing “ historical trends in full Web computing in bitcoin & & & & & ldquao; historical trends in prices in bitcoin during the same period & & & rdquao; 分析起来，算力曲线其实更像是比特币不断渗透人心，不断被大家认可的“共识曲线”。 analyzes the arithmetic curve more like Bitcoin's permeating & ldquao; Consensus Curve & rdquao;
比特币价格暴涨，那么矿工就会更有动力购买矿机进行挖矿；如果比特币价格暴跌，会以成本为导向，最先将那些高成本挖矿的中小矿工淘汰出局，而这部分的矿工算力其实非常有限，很快会有更优质的算力补充进来。 A sharp increase in bitcoin prices would give miners more incentive to buy machines for mining; if bitcoin prices fell, they would be cost-oriented, cutting out the first small and medium-sized miners who dig up mines at high cost, which are actually very limited in value and will soon be supplemented by better values. 当然，这部分补充算力很可能源自头部矿霸，只有他们能以更低的价格挖到比特币，并承受来自熊市比特币的寂寞空虚冷。 Of course, this part of the supplementary calculus is likely to come from the head magnate, who can only dig up bitcoin at lower prices and endure the lonely emptiness of bitcoin from Bear City. 平时，我们经常会收到比特币全网算力上涨或者下跌的消息。现在来看，算力上涨基本上是一种常态事件，没什么好奇怪的；但是算力下跌却需要警惕，那是真的有矿主面对大面积矿难事件扛不住了，只能先洗洗睡了。 Usually, we get the news that bitcoin's all-of-the-net arithmetic is up or down. now looks like it's basically a normal event. There's nothing strange about it; but it's a fall in arithmetic that needs to be warned. It's a real miner who can't handle a massive mine crash.
值得一提的是，比特币大陆拥有两大矿池：BTC.com和AntPool，具备了占据比特币51%算力的能力。如果这些矿霸没有停机认输，小矿场之间的风云较量，只是比特币挖矿历史上洒洒水的故事而已。 It is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin continent has two major ponds: BTC.com and AntPool, with the capacity to account for 51% of Bitcoin. If these magnates do not stop, the wind and clouds between small mines are nothing more than a story of the history of Bitcoin spilling water. 基于比特币pow共识机制，我们可以预见的是：这条至今在暴涨的全网算力k线背后，未来会有更多中小矿工横尸比特币矿井中，矿工驱逐效应将愈发明显。 On the basis of the Bitcoinpow consensus mechanism, we can foresee that, behind the rising full-network computing line k, more small and medium-sized miners will be killed in the future, and the effect of the expulsion of the miners will become more evident. 毕竟，这些头部玩家牢牢把握住了前沿技术，随着各方面条件不断成熟、更加规模化，成本越低，自身只会更具竞争力。与此同时，矿机的价格也会随着算力的提升水涨船高，留给中小矿工的机会只会越来越少。 After all, these head players have grasped cutting-edge technology, and the lower the cost, the more competitive they will be, as conditions mature and scale up. At the same time, the price of a miner will rise as the volume increases, leaving fewer and fewer opportunities for small and medium-sized miners. 所以呢，或许在不久的将来，挖矿很可能会成为头部矿霸之间的较量，中小矿工挖矿的事故会成为历史的尘埃。 So, perhaps in the near future, mining is likely to be a struggle between head-meat miners, and accidents involving small- and medium-scale miners will be the dust of history. 编辑 | 丹丹 优质项目“融资首发绿色通道”：创业者请加微信hkbx2296832155，务必注明项目名称；或发送BP至xueting@pencilnews.cn。
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到时候，你还说“家里有矿”，那是红果果在炫富啊！
And then you say & ldquao; mine & rdquao; that's red fruit showing off!
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