比特币完成第四次减半

　　北京时间2024年4月20日8时9分，比特币于区块高度840000成功完成第四次减半，比特币网络的挖矿奖励由6.25BTC（比特币）减半至3.125BTC。

On 20 April 2024 Beijing time, at 8:09 p.m., Bitcoin successfully halved its fourth time at a block height of 840,000, and the Bitcoin network's mining incentive was halved from 6.25 BTC (bitcoin) to 3.125 BTC.

　　比特币减半事件通常被看作是推动比特币牛市的积极因素。然而，对于这次比特币减半，摩根大通的分析师团队依据比特币当前价格测算的减半以后矿工的成本开销，当期期货未平仓合约数量，以及比特币与黄金的横向对比等几个因素，作出了减半后比特币价格可能暴跌的预判。

The halving of Bitcoin is often seen as a positive driver of the Bitcoin cow market. However, for this time,

　　从前三次比特币减半后的币价走势看，短期内并未使币价有较高增长，而长期看都推动了币价的上涨。受访专家表示，比特币减半事件通常对价格产生积极影响，因为这一机制通过减少新比特币的供给速度，理论上增加了比特币的稀缺性。市场可能会在初期对减半反应不大，随着时间推移，新比特币供应的减少可能会逐渐体现在市场价格上。

According to the experts interviewed, the halving of bitcoins has generally had a positive impact on prices, as this mechanism has theoretically increased bitcoins’ scarcity by reducing the speed of supply of new bitcoins. Markets may initially react less to halving, and, over time, the decline in new bitcoins may gradually be reflected in market prices.

　　比特币减半是指“挖掘”比特币交易的奖励减半，以确保其稀缺性、价值保持以及作为一种数字货币的长期可持续性。

The halving of Bitcoin refers to the halving of incentives for “exploitation” of bitcoin transactions to ensure its scarcity, preservation of value and long-term sustainability as a digital currency of //[span>.

　　“由以上数据可以看出，比特币每一次减半以后其价格并没有立刻发生大幅度调整，都是经历了一年甚至更长时间，其价格才发生调整。因此，其后来的价格调整，到底是因为减半，还是其他因素，可能也难以厘清。”中国计算机学会区块链专委会执行委员高承实对记者分析指出，尽管比特币发生了减半，但流入市场的比特币仍然在增加，只是增加的速度变慢、数量变小了，这也是比特币每轮减半之后价格并没有立刻发生调整的原因之一。

As can be seen from the above data, the price of Bitcoin has not been substantially adjusted immediately since each time it was halved, and the price has been adjusted for one year or more. Thus, the subsequent price adjustment, whether by halving it or by other factors, may be difficult to clarify. The Chinese Computer Society span analysis of journalists by the Executive Committee of the Special Commission pointed out that, although the currency had been halved, the amount of currency flowing into the market was still increasing, albeit at a slower rate, but only at a slower rate than immediately after the reduction of prices of each currency.

　　中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席于佳宁也对记者分析称，短期内，市场对比特币减半的反应可能会呈现出高度波动性。由于减半事件已被市场广泛预期，因此在减半前后，投资者情绪和市场活动可能会出现显著波动。一方面，减半事件可能会被市场解读为供应减少的信号，从而引发对比特币价格上涨的预期。这种预期可能在减半前就已推动价格上涨，导致市场出现一定程度的“买预期，卖事实”现象。另一方面，由于减半直接影响矿工的收益，如果部分矿工因利润减少而退出市场，可能会短期内对网络的哈希率（算力，比特币网络处理能力的度量单位）产生影响，进而影响市场信心。

The co-chair of the China Communications Industry Association

　　机构看跌

Institution looks down

　　虽然前三次减半事件后，长期看比特币价格都经历了不同程度的上涨。然而，对于此次减半事件，摩根大通的分析师团队预计，比特币价格在减半后不会上涨，反而会在减半后下跌。

Although the price of bitcoin has been rising to varying degrees for a long time since the first three halves. However, for this halving event,

　　摩根大通的分析师团队给出的理由归纳起来有三方面：一是市场可能已经在价格中提前反映了减半的预期，导致比特币在减半前出现了超买现象；二是风险资本融资的低迷，这可能表明市场对数字资产的长期增长潜力缺乏信心；三是减半后比特币挖矿的回报减少，可能会影响矿工的挖矿动力，进而影响网络的算力和安全性。

The reasons given by the team of analysts of sum up in three ways: first, the market may have already reflected in prices the expectation of halving the price, leading to the overpurchase of Bitcoin before halving; second, the low incidence of venture capital financing, which may indicate a market's lack of confidence in the long-term growth potential of digital assets; and third, the reduction in returns from mine excavations by bitcoin after halving, which may affect miners' mining dynamics and thus the network's numeracy and safety.

　　高承实认为，比特币在减半之后应该还有相应的上调空间，价格上调空间可能还会比较大，因为比特币在当前这个发展不稳定和不均衡的世界中，具有越来越广泛且越来越强的共识。而世界各主要国家和地区推出的比特币现货、期货期权、现货ETF，为比特币及相关衍生品交易提供了便利的通道。这些因素使得比特币从长期来看有进一步上调的可能。

The strong belief is that bitcoin should have the corresponding room for upward adjustment after halving it, and that there may be more room for price uplifting, because bitcoin has a growing and growing consensus in the current unstable and uneven world. And the introduction of bitcoins, futures, and spot ETFs by major countries and regions of the world has facilitated the passage of bitcoins and related derivatives.

　　“比特币已经成为当前资产配置和金融市场交易的一个重要品类，投资比特币，需要放弃短线思维，更关注其长期发展变化。”高承实建议，投资人根据自己的风险承受程度，做出适当的投资配比，同时也需要密切关注比特币价格变化，深入研究影响比特币价格因素的相关变化。

“Bitcoin has become an important category of current asset allocation and financial market transactions, investing in bitcoin, and needs to give up short-line thinking and pay more attention to its long-term development.” Good advice is that investors make appropriate investment ratios based on their own risk tolerance, while paying close attention to bitcoin price changes and studying in depth related changes affecting bitcoin price factors.

　　“长期来看，比特币的减半事件通常对价格产生积极影响。”于佳宁预计，市场可能会在初期对减半反应不大，随着时间推移，新比特币供应的减少可能会逐渐体现在市场价格上。此外，比特币市场的成熟度日益提高，越来越多的机构投资者和大型金融实体的参与，也可能增强市场的稳定性和抗风险能力。

“In the long run, the halving of Bitcoin typically has a positive impact on prices.” In Janin, the market may initially react less to halving it, and the decline in the supply of new bitcoin may gradually be reflected in market prices over time. Moreover, the growing maturity of the Bitcoin market and the involvement of an increasing number of institutional investors and large financial entities may also increase market stability and resilience.

　　于佳宁认为，投资者应考虑将比特币纳入一个多元化的投资组合中，以分散风险。由于比特币与传统资产类别的相关性较低，它可以作为投资组合中有效的分散投资工具。投资者应深入研究市场动态，根据自身的风险承受能力和投资目标，合理配置资产，并持续关注市场及相关政策变化，做出明智的投资决策。

In Gianning’s view, investors should consider including bitcoin in a diversified portfolio to spread risk. Because of its low relevance to traditional asset classes, bitcoin can be an effective tool for diversification in the portfolio. Investors should study market dynamics in depth, rationalize assets according to their risk tolerance and investment objectives, and keep an eye on markets and related policy changes, making informed investment decisions.

（文章来源：国际金融报）