2024年比特币走势、矿场扩张节奏、Coinbase深度分析：蓄势待发

2）ETF审批正式通过后：2024年1月10日，SEC批准11只比特币现货ETF上市，比特币价格从高点4.5万美元短暂回落至4万美元后，开启了快速拉涨， 此阶段伴随着ETF带来的增量资金涌入，日均成交量最高单日超过900亿美元，3月中旬比特币价格创出历史新高，单枚价格超过7.3万美元，但即 使在价格新高情况下，成交量仍未突破2021年单日近1800亿美元的规模。

2) Following the formal adoption of the ETF approvals, on 10 January 2024, the SEC approved the listing of 11 spot ETFs in Bitcoin, the price of which fell briefly from a high of $45,000 to $40,000. This phase was accompanied by an influx of incremental funds from ETFs, with an average turnover of up to $90 billion per day, and by an historic increase in Bitcoin prices in mid-March, with a single price of more than $73,000, leaving the volume of transactions at a new high price that did not exceed the size of nearly $18 billion a day in 2021.

随后比特币价格高位出现震荡，进入4月日成交量开始萎缩，回到了日均200亿美元左右的较低水平。4月20日在区块奖励减半后，价格出现一轮明 显回撤，最低触及5.8万美元。截至6月17日，比特币价格仍在6~7万美元之间震荡，成交量不断走低，较前一轮牛市主升浪期日均600亿美元左右的 交易额还有很大差距。

As a result, bitcoin prices were in shock at a high price and began to shrink in April, returning to a low level of roughly $20 billion a day. After halving block incentives on April 20, there was a clear fall in prices, reaching a minimum of $58,000. As of June 17, Bitcoins prices were still in shock between $60 and $70 million, with a steady decline, with a significant gap between the volume of transactions at about $60 billion a day during the previous round of cattle surges.

共识不断增强，交易所存币量新低

Consensus is growing and exchange currency holdings are at a new low

中心化交易所的比特币存量创2021年以来新低。 交易所中的比特币存量一定程度上可以代表目前市场上流通交易的比特币数量，根据CryptoQuant统计数据，截至2024年6月17日，交易所合计持 有比特币总量为283.3万枚，占比特币总流通量的14.37%左右，此数额相较于2021年高点时的339万枚下降了16.4%。存量出现明显下降的时点为 2022年10月与2024年1月中旬后，2022年是FTX交易所暴雷，比特币价格大幅下跌，交易所大量被提币，这一时间也正好对应了机构资金大举入场 的时间。而2024年1月后，对应比特币ETF通过，此时间交易所存量比特币大量被购走，且并未有明显回流。当前趋势仍在不断延续，这也一部分 解释了为何交易所成交量持续下探，由于用于交易需求的比特币数量占比持续下降，而提取走用户长期持有的量在不断增加。

According to CryptoQuant statistics, as of 17 June 2024, the total amount of bitcoins held by the exchange was 2,833,000, accounting for about 14.37 per cent of the total amount of Bitcoins in circulation. This represents a 16.4 per cent decline in the stock of bitcoins, compared to the 33.9 million at the height of 2021, when the stock was purchased at a time when there was no significant reversal of the current trend, which explains in part why the exchange continued to show a significant drop in prices, as well as a significant drop in the prices of bitcoins, due to the continuing decline in the volume of agency funds in demand.

持币彩虹图显示，持有3年以上比特币地址占比46.78% 。 上一轮比特币价格到达6.9万美元高点时间是2021年12月，那么现阶段持有3年以上且未动的比特币地址，意味着2021年6月后就再也没有任何交易 转账操作，这些地址在经历了2021年牛市，又持币度过了2022年熊市，且在2023年大幅上涨后也并未卖出。比特币链上的持有者数量大幅增加， 共识不断增强，在本身供给不断通缩的情况下，长期投资者数量越来越多，流通交易的量越来越少，持有周期不足3月的地址量占比仅为19.28%， 与交易所存量比特币流通体量大致对应。

The last round of bitcoin prices reached a high of US$ 69,000 in December 2021, so holding a bitcoin address for more than three years at this stage, which means that there will be no further transactions after June 2021, after the cattle market in 2021, during the bear market in 2022, and after a sharp increase in 2023, it has not been sold. The number of Bitcoin holders has increased significantly, the consensus has grown, the number of long-term investors is increasing, the volume of circulation transactions is decreasing, and the number of addresses for less than three months is only 19.28%, and the stock of exchanges is roughly equal to the amount of currency in circulation.

当前比特币价格的波动很大程度上由中心化交易所中这14.37%的存量比特币交易决定，而这部分数量预计还会随着机构资金的不断进入配置，持 续缩减，相较于上一轮牛市，本轮更小的资金量就能短期扰动价格。

The current price volatility in bitcoin is largely determined by the 14.37 per cent of the stock of bitcoin traded in the centralized exchange, which is expected to continue to shrink as agency funds continue to be allocated, and the smaller volume of money in the current round is likely to disturb prices in the short term compared to the previous round of cattle.

谁主导了这轮上涨--机构

Who's in charge of this turnup -- the agency.

2022~2023年比特币价格底部区域，来自专业机构大资金占比明显上升。根据Chainalysis统计，2022年7月~2023年6月比特币价格处于底部区域 期间，各大区域单笔交易规模中，单笔超过1000万美元的交易量占比较 2021年7月~2022年6月牛市期间明显增加，2021~2022年期间这一体量交 易的占比区间大抵在25%~40%之间，而2022~2023年期间此占比区间达 到40%~55%之间，机构参与度2022年后明显增加。 在北美地区交易中，单笔大于1000万美元资金交易量占比2022~2023年占 比超过50%，远超其2021~2022年期间水平，也是全球大额交易占比最高 的地区，其次机构资金占比较高的是中、西、北欧区域与东南亚和澳洲 区域。 此交易结构意味着2022年开始，参与比特币的资金由散户向投资机构倾 斜，2024年现货比特币ETF上市后，单笔超过100万美元的交易量持续走 高，而小额的0~100美元的交易额占比逐步走低。

According to Chainalysis, during the period between July 2022 and June 2023, when Bitcoin prices were at the bottom, there was a marked increase in the volume of individual transactions of more than $10 million across major regions, compared to over 50 per cent during the period between July 2021 and June 2022 in the cattle market and between 25 per cent and 40 per cent in the period between 2021 and 2022, while between 2022 and 2023 it reached between 40 per cent and 55 per cent in the region, and after 2022 and 2022 in the region of South-East Asia and Australia.

机构来自哪里？北美是全球数字资产流入占比最高区域

Where's the agency from? North America is the region with the highest share of global digital asset inflows

根据Chainalysis统计，北美区域2022年7月~2023年6月期间，数字资产流入总额占比全球为24.4%，排名第一。分析近4年全球各区域数字资产流动趋势，数字资产流入占比提升最快的地区为北美区域，自2019年的15%提升至2023年的24.4%，下降幅度最 大的是东亚区域，自2019年的31%下滑至2023年的8.8%。其余占比提升较为明显是的东南亚及澳洲区域，市占比自12%提升至19.3%，其他区域 （包括中东、非洲、拉丁美洲）占比自13%提升至21%。此外中欧&西欧&北欧区域自2020年占比冲高后，近两年逐渐下滑，目前占比17.6%，已 经低于东南亚&澳洲区域，东欧区域占比也从12%下降至8.9%。

According to Chainalysis, the North American region accounted for 24.4 per cent of total digital asset inflows from July 2022 to June 2023, ranking first. Analysis of trends in digital asset flows from all regions of the world over the past four years, with the fastest-growing share of digital asset inflows from the North American region, from 15 per cent in 2019 to 24.4 per cent in 2023, the largest decline being in the East Asian region, from 31 per cent in 2019 to 8.8 per cent in 2023, and in the South-East Asia and Australia region, where the share of cities rose from 12 per cent to 19.3 per cent, and in other regions (including the Middle East, Africa and Latin America) from 13 per cent to 21 per cent.

对比Coinbase客户加密资产托管总额，可以看到2022Q3~2023Q2这一段时间，对应了2022年7月~2023年6月期间，该时期北美流入数字资产占 比已经达到24.4%，截至2023Q2 Coinbase客户加密资产托管总额为1242.4亿美元，而2023Q3~2024Q1，Coinbase托管的资产进一步上升到了 3295.1亿美元，较2023Q2提升165.2%，预计北美地区在此段时间的数字资产流入全球占比将进一步上扬。

Compared to the total amount of encrypted assets held by Coinbase clients, it can be seen that for the period 2022Q3~2023Q2, which corresponds to the period from July 2022 to June 2023, the percentage of digital assets inflow in North America reached 24.4 per cent and the total amount of encrypted assets held by the customers up to 2023Q2 Coinbase was $12.24 billion, while 2023Q3~2024Q1, Coinbase hosted assets rose further to $329.51 billion, an increase of 165.2 per cent over 2023Q2 and the projected increase in the global share of digital assets in the North American region during this period.

SEC通过比特币现货ETF审批，比特币作为一类可投资资产逐渐进入机构视野。根据CCN统计数据显示，美国威斯康星州养老金2024Q1配置了 1.6亿美元的比特币ETF，截至6月14日，有超过900家机构配置有比特币ETF资产。比特币ETF投资还处于起步阶段，预计未来将有更多国家或地 区通过比特币ETF产品审批，目前除美国外，中国香港、澳大利亚、泰国都已经通过首批ETF产品审批，增量资金将随着各地的比特币ETF不断 涌入。

According to CCN statistics, 2024Q1 in Wisconsin, United States pensions were allocated $160 million in Bitcoins, and more than 900 institutions were equipped with Bitcoins ETF assets as of June 14. Bitcoins ETF investments are still in the initial stages, more countries or districts are expected to approve Bitcoin ETF products in the future, and now Hong Kong, China, Australia, and Thailand, with the exception of the United States, have approved the first ETF products, and the incremental funds will continue to flow with Bitcoin ETFs everywhere.

比特币ETF占发行机构总规模1.58%

BitcoinETF accounts for 1.58 per cent of the total size of the issuer

Coinbase per capita turnover analysis

Coinbase人均交易量探讨：当前财富效应不足，普通用户热情还远未点燃。2024年初至今，统计前100市值中，涨幅TOP10的Token，仅有JASMY与ENS在Coinbase 上架交易，其余标的均无法在Coinbase交易。而在2024Q1占据Coinbase46%交易收入的 比特币和以太坊相较于其他Token其波动相对低，导致散户交易的频次不足，且更多为 机构主导。 2021Q4单月交易活跃人次最高达到11.4百万，而2024Q1为8百万，在比特币价格新高的情 况下，交易活跃人次仅为最高季度的70%。而如果简单以普通用户交易量除以活跃交易 人次（由于机构活跃人次中占比较低，2021年年报公司披露是11000家），可以大致看出 普通用户的季度交易额，2024Q1仅为7000美元，这一水平远不及此前2021Q1最高时的 19672美元，而2021Q1月活交易人次也已经有6.1百万。

Coinbase's per capita turnover was explored: the current wealth effect is insufficient and the enthusiasm of ordinary users is far from abating. Token, the top 100 market value of TOP10 has increased since the beginning of 2024, with only JASMY and ENS trading in Coinbase, and none of the remaining targets being traded in Coinbase. In contrast, Bitcoin, where 2024Q1 accounts for 46% of Coinbase's transaction revenues, and Tetsu, where there is relatively low volatility compared to other Tokens, has led to less frequent and more institutionally dominated dealings among the households.

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