21全球观察｜暴涨暴跌模式下加密货币投资价值几何？近期受美股美债和通胀影响大

周末，埃隆.马斯克在推特发帖暗示特斯拉将出售所持有的比特币，消息一出加密货币市场顿时陷入恐慌，比特币价格一度跌破45000美元，其它加密货币也备受冲击。跟周五收盘价相比，本周一，芝加哥商品交易所的5月份比特币期货价格跌幅超过10%。

On weekends, Elon Musk posted tweets suggesting that Tesla would sell the bitcoin that he held, and that when the news came out of the crypto-money market, the bitcoin price fell by $45,000, and the rest of the encoded currency was hit. On Monday, the price of the Bitcoin futures fell by more than 10% on the Chicago Commodity Exchange in May, compared to Friday’s round-up.

不过，截止上周五，2021年比特币、以太坊分别上涨30%、274%，最神奇的是狗狗币上涨了6359%，同期标准普尔500指数仅上涨10%。

However, as of last Friday, 2021 saw a 30 per cent increase in Bitcoin and a 274 per cent increase in Ether, the most amazing of which was a 6359 per cent increase in dog money, compared with a 10 per cent increase in the Standard & Poor's 500 index for the same period.

加密货币市场火得发烫，散户和机构投资者相继涌入这个市场，许多公司在暗地里招兵买马，准备迎接新的数字商机。人们不禁会问：全球投资者为何热捧加密货币？未来的发展前景如何？

The market for encrypted money is hot, and the market has been stormed by diasporas and institutional investors, and many companies are secretly recruiting to prepare for new digital business opportunities. One wonders why global investors are interested in encrypted money. What are the prospects for future development?

加密货币交易所上市与主流群体的态度改变

Changes in attitudes of the listed and mainstream groups on the crypto-currency exchange

投资者都知道，比特币价值几乎为零，但主流投资群体却一改初衷，开始拥抱加密货币。

Investors know that the bitcoin value is almost zero, but the mainstream group of investors has moved on to embrace encrypted currency.

四年前，美国证监会拒绝了投资基金关于设立比特币ETF申请，提出了十多个问题，但核心问题是：ETF如何确定比特币的价值？ETF将采取什么举措确保比特币市场的流动性？ETF如何应对网络黑客？第一个问题实际上质疑比特币的货币属性，第二个问题则表达了监管机构对市场前景的担心，最后一个问题涉及资产安全问题。

Four years ago, the CSRC rejected the investment fund's application for the establishment of the Bitcoin ETF and raised more than a dozen questions, but the central question was: how would the ETF determine the value of the Bitcoin? What would the ETF do to ensure the liquidity of the Bitcoin market?

然而，自今年以来，美国金融市场的一系列操作为加密货币进入主流投资群体扫清了道路。正如2017年12月中旬芝加哥期权交易所和芝加哥商品交易所集团推出的比特币期货刺激了比特币行情一样，美国最大的比特币交易所Coinbase从上市筹备到上市的整个操作在华尔街激起了千层浪。

Since this year, however, a series of operations in US financial markets have paved the way for encrypted currencies to enter mainstream investment groups. Just as the Bitcoin futures launched by the Chicago Stock Exchange and the Chicago Commodity Exchange Group in mid-December 2017 stimulated bitcoins, Coinbase, the largest Bitcoin Exchange in the United States, triggered a thousand waves on Wall Street from listing to listing.

首先，Coinbase国际的上市节奏和经营业绩让市场看到了加密货币的巨大商机，以及对未来金融市场的创新。2021年1月25日，Coinbase国际宣布将通过直接上市登录纳斯达克，这一消息引燃了加密货币市场。为确保上市顺利，2月18日，Coinbase国际聘用梅丽莎.斯雷特担任合规主管；2月25日向美国证监会正式提出上市申请；3月19日，向商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）支付650万美元的和解费；3月30日，聘用美国证监会原处长Brett Redfearn主管资本市场部。4月1日，Coinbase国际宣布4月14日正式上市；上市当天，Coinbase国际市值达850亿美元，成为市场的新宠。据最新财报，与去年同期收入1.91亿美元和利润0.32亿美元相比，Coinbase今年第一季度营收达18亿美元，利润为7.71 亿美元。

First, on 25 January 2021, Coinbase International announced that it would enter Nasdak directly on the market. On 18 February, Coinbase International hired Melissa Srett as Compliance Manager; on 25 February, the United States CVM formally applied for listing; on 19 March, it paid $6.5 million in settlement fees to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); on 30 March, Brett Redfarn, former head of the United States CSRC, was hired to head the capital market. On 1 April, Coinbase International announced that it had officially entered the market on 14 April; on that day, Coinbase International had a market value of $850 million, becoming a new market asset. According to the latest financial report, Coinbase received $1.81 billion in profits in the first quarter of the year, compared to its revenues and profits of $92 million over the same period last year.

其次，加密货币交易市场条件逐步改善，为投资者提供了交易通道和市场流通性。美国最大的在线支付公司贝宝、支付巨头Square和Stripe、万事达、维萨、罗宾汉、威布尔金融等金融机构先后允许客户交易加密货币。洲际交易所也不甘落后，2021年1月11日宣布将通过特殊目的并购公司（SPAC，即借壳上市）让旗下加密货币创投企业上市。Coindesk于2021年1月5日宣布收购Tradeblock，以满足市场对加密货币数据和指数编制的巨大需求。币安交易所（全球最大的比特币交易所）聘用货币监理署原署长担任总裁，以加深跟华盛顿的关系。美国最古老的银行——纽约梅隆于2021年2月11日高调宣布进入比特币市场，将代理资产管理客户持有、划转和发行比特币和其它加密货币。2021年4月5日，高盛银行开始向高净值客户提供加密货币服务。

On January 11, 2021, the Intercontinental Exchange announced that special-purpose mergers and acquisitions (SPACs) would be introduced into the market. Coindesk announced on January 5th, 2021, the purchase of Tradeblock to meet the market’s huge demand for encrypted monetary data and indexing. On April 5th, 2021, the world’s largest Bitcoin Exchange, Goldman Sachs began to provide encrypted money services to high-value clients.

其三，加密市场的投资者结构已悄然发生变化。此前，加密货币市场主要是零售客户为主，现在机构客户已逐步入市。涉足较深的企业包括：特斯拉、Square、微策略（MicroStrategy，软件公司）、马拉松数字集团、银河数字集团、灰度（Grayscale）比特币信托、灰度以太坊信托和Coinbase国际。2021年2月18日，加拿大目标投资公司（Purpose Investments）设立的全球第一只ETF——目标比特币ETF在多伦多证券交易所挂牌交易，并取得了巨大成功，为火爆的加密货币市场再添一把火。2021年3月初，美国富达资产管理公司打算推出比特币ETF。当然，被称为“加密之王”的埃隆.马斯克的出尔反尔的言论对市场影响最大。2021年2月8日，他宣布特斯拉购买了价值15亿美元的比特币，3月24日表示特斯拉可以接受比特币支付。今年第一季度，特斯拉盈利4.38亿美元，其中比特币交易就贡献了1.01亿美元。同样，马斯克对狗狗币的溢美之词使该币价格以火箭般速度串升。

Third, the structure of the encrypted market’s investors has changed dramatically. Previously, the encrypted money market was dominated by retail customers, and now institutional customers have gradually entered the market. The deeper enterprises involved included Tesla, Square, MicroStrategy (software), Marathon Digital Group, Galaxy Digital Group, Grayscale (Grayscale) Bitcoin Trust, the Grayscale Trust and Coinbase International. On 18 February 2021, the first global E.T.F., set up by the Canadian Target Investment Corporation (Purpose Investments) – the Bitcoin E.T.F. at the Toronto Stock Exchange – made a huge success, and purchased another $1.5 billion worth of dollars worth of encrypted money for the market. In early March 2021, the US firm Fudal Asset Management intends to launch the Bitcoin Trust and Coinbase International.

投资加密货币的弊端之争

Investment in encrypt currency vices

自2008年问世至今，有关比特币的争论从未停止过。来自官方的反对声较大，但投资界却越来越认可。反对方的理由可归结为三点：比特币难以理解、价格波动较大、安全性存疑，而支持方的理由刚好是比特币的三大特点：无可比拟的透明性、全天交易、绝对的私密性。随着时间的推移，区块链应用场景越来越多，人们对加密货币会有重新的认识，争论的焦点也会随之变化。

The argument about Bitcoin has never stopped since its inception in 2008. The opposition has been more vocal, but increasingly accepted by the investment community. The arguments of the opposing party can be summarized in three points: bitcoin is difficult to understand, price volatility is high, security doubts remain, and the arguments of the supporting party are precisely three of the characteristics of Bitcoin: incomparable transparency, all-day trading, and absolute privacy.

反对比特币的一方其理由相当充分。首先，比特币价值很难确定。从比特币挖矿过程看，电费占大头，其次是机器设备费。目前比特币已发行了1781万枚，计算次数相应增加，电力消耗随之增大，挖矿难度越来越高。2018年，世界经济论坛估计，全球比特币挖矿所耗费的电力相当于阿根廷全年电力消费，如今电力消费肯定会更高。这样的电力消费没有用于实际生产，毫无意义地增加了环境压力，与当今国际社会倡导的绿色低碳理念背道而驰。这也是马斯克停止支持比特币的理由。

In 2018, the World Economic Forum estimated that the global consumption of Bitcoin would be equivalent to Argentina’s annual electricity consumption, and that electricity consumption would be much higher today. Such consumption was not used for real production, adding meaningless environmental pressure, contrary to the green low-carbon concept advocated by the international community today. That is why Mask stopped supporting Bitcoin.

其次，比特币价格波动过大，目前每笔交易费高达5美元，不具备货币的基本特征。事实上，比特币每日交易量暴增，而每日用于商品与服务消费支付交易却毫无起色，这意味着比特币交易就是纯粹地投机性交易。美国证监会新任主席加里.盖斯勒（Gary Gensler）近日表示，对投资者更大的保护会促进加密货币市场发展。言外之意，加密货币市场尚未达到证监会的基本要求。

Second, bitcoin prices fluctuate too much, with currently up to US$ 5 per transaction, without the basic characteristics of the currency. Indeed, Bitcoin’s daily turnover has increased dramatically, while daily payments for goods and services have gone unabated, which means that bitcoin transactions are purely speculative.

再次，市场的垄断性破坏了定价的公平、公正原则。由于挖矿成本上升，行业内部竞争加剧，比特币矿机不断地升级换代，小矿主退出了挖矿市场，比特币算力就越来越多地集中在少数资金大户手中，交易市场很容易被少数人操纵。

Third, the monopolistic nature of markets undermines the principle of fairness and fairness in pricing. As mining costs rise, intra-industry competition intensifys, bitcoin machines continue to upgrade, small miners withdraw from mining markets, bitcoins are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few large capital owners, and trading markets are easily manipulated by a few.

最后，资金安全问题依然非常突出，被盗事件时有发生，交易平台倒闭也屡屡见报。随着比特币市场火爆，波动水平上升，比特币被盗事件屡有发生，越来越多的监管机构对比特币市场的担心就再正常不过了。美国国内税务局（IRS）认定比特币是资产，但不是货币，须要按资产征税，而货币监理署年初表示在全国性银行和储蓄机构可以用稳定币（Stablecoins）支付。纽约州总检察长也提醒投资者警惕比特币的风险性。

As the Bitcoin market explodes, volatility rises, and thefts of bitcoin occur. More and more regulators are worried about the Bitcoin market. The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has determined that Bitcoin is an asset, but not a currency, subject to asset taxation, while the Monetary Supervisory Authority said early in the year that a national bank and savings agency could pay a stable currency (Stablecoins).

与官方冷面相反的是投资界对加密货币的热情不减，他们深信加密货币和区块链会重新定义金融服务与交易市场。第一，加密货币的透明度是其最大优势，将为社会带来变革与责任性。交易记录以匿名形式存放在公共账本上，可供任何人随时查阅，为未来的银行系统增添了一层透明度。第二，由于比特币发行量有限，在全球滥发货币和超低利率时代，比特币类似虚拟黄金，跟黄金一样具有保值功能。尽管比特币波动较大，但由于跟股票和债券的相关度较低，因此是一种较好的保值资产。第三，交易的便利性是加密货币的另一优点。加密货币不受空间限制，也摆脱了银行账户的束缚，持有者随处随地均可进行交易，方便投资者实时资金管理和投资决策。最后，绝对的私密性既是优点又是缺点。对于遵纪守法公民来说，最诱人的特点是不存在身份被盗，匿名交易可加强安全保护，但黑市和暗网是加密货币的最大使用者，包括洗钱在内的网络犯罪防不胜防。

Contrary to the official cooling, the investment community’s enthusiasm for encrypted currency is undiminished, and they are convinced that encrypted currency and block chains will redefine financial services and trading markets. First, the transparency of encrypted currency is its greatest advantage and will bring about change and accountability in society. Third, the ease of transactions is an additional advantage of encrypted money, which is stored in public accounts and accessible to anyone at any time, and adds a layer of transparency to the future banking system. Second, because of the limited distribution of bitcoins, during times of currency abuse and ultra-low interest rates around the world, Bitcoins are like virtual gold, which is as valuable as gold.

加密货币的近期前景展望

Outlook for the immediate future of encrypted currencies

加密货币的发展不可能因某些人的观点而改变，也不可能因交易市场的深度回调而萎靡不振。加密货币的确有许多优点，正如它有许多缺点一样。加密货币是数字时代的新生事物，不能用传统的价值尺度去衡量。

Encrypted money does have many advantages, just as it has many disadvantages. Encrypted money is a novel thing in the digital age that cannot be measured by conventional values.

监管机构关注的是市场的乱象、金融安全和对投资者保护。在他们看来，比特币确实是金融创新，但这样的创新是否具有社会意义？在金融市场看来，加密货币市场蕴藏着巨大商机，而且随着计算机功能更加强大，宽带连接速度更快，维持加密货币的成本会更低，加密货币前途无可限量。中央银行可以研究和发行法定数字货币，便于掌握通货膨胀、名义和实际国内生产总值的实时信息，犹如央行行长驾驶着货币政策这部车至少透过后视镜可以看得更加清楚，也能看见两侧窗户，而不是像以前那样只看得见前面的挡风玻璃。

In their view, Bitcoin is indeed a financial innovation, but does it have social significance? In financial markets, the market for encrypted money harbours huge business opportunities, and, as computers become stronger, broadband connectivity is faster, the cost of maintaining encrypted money is lower, and there is no limit to the future of encrypted money.

就目前而言，摆在美国证监会桌上有九份设立比特币EFF的申请书，如果美国官方审批同意，加密货币将进入大发展时代。但从新任主席的态度看，近期内这种可能性较小，但如果加密货币的运行环境不断改善，比特币趋于稳定，社会对加密货币的认知增加，监管当局的态度也会发生变化。

For the time being, there are nine applications on the SEC desk to set up a bitcoinEFF, which, if officially approved by the US, would lead to an era of great development. But, given the new president’s attitude, this is less likely in the near future, but if the environment in which the encoded currency operates improves, Bitcoins stabilizes, and society’s awareness of the encoded currency increases, the regulatory authority’s attitude will change.

近期看，加密货币可能受美国股票市场、债券市场和通胀水平的趋势影响较大，如果股票市场进入调整，债券价格下跌，通胀压力增大，加密货币市场也会进入调整期。

In the near future, cryptographic currencies may be more affected by trends in the United States stock market, bond market and inflation levels, and if stock markets enter adjustment, bond prices fall and inflationary pressures increase, they will also enter adjustment periods.

（特约作者：王应贵 澳门城市大学金融学院 ）

(Subject author: Wang Quegui Macao Metropolitan University Institute of Finance)

（编辑：李艳霞）

(Edit: Li Yanxia)