AKmax ：以太坊期权数据表明 专业交易者预计ETH价格将突破400美元

期权分为两种基本工具：看涨期权，主要针对看涨策略；看跌期权，主要用于看跌交易。

The options are divided into two basic tools: to see the options increase, mainly in view of the strategies of the options increase, and to see the options fall, mainly in view of the transactions.

这是一个简单化的观点，但它提供了一个专业交易者的期望值的鸟瞰图，因为大额交易对指数的影响更大。

This is a simplified view, but it provides an overview of the expectations of professional traders, as large transactions have a greater impact on the index.

这个看跌/看涨比在3月中旬触及0.37，表明看跌期权的未平仓量比看涨期权低63%。在3月12日加密市场暴跌后，所有这一切都发生了变化，当时ETH价格暴跌超过40%。

This drop/up is compared to 0.37 in mid-March, which shows that the amount of unwinding to see options is 63% lower than to see options increase. After the collapse of the encryption market on March 12, all of this changed, when the prices of ETH fell by more than 40%.

交易者开始以令人印象深刻的速度建立保护性头寸，6月初看跌/看涨比达到1.04，表明看跌期权的未平仓量高于看涨。

Dealers began to build protective positions at an impressive pace, with a drop/student ratio of 1.04 at the beginning of June, indicating that the amount of unwinding to see options is higher than it is.

由于ETH当时未能突破250美元水平，7月中旬未平仓量回落至0.84。

Due to the failure of ETH to reach the level of $250 at that time, the level of unwinding fell to 0.84 in mid-July.

奇怪的是，尽管最近自7月20日以来反弹64%至目前的390美元，但期权市场上在不断增加更多的看跌期权。这个指标不应该单独分析，因为如果认为这些看跌期权的几率很低，那么它们可能只值几分钱。

Curiously, despite a recent rebound of 64 per cent since 20 July to the current $390, options markets are increasing their weight. This indicator should not be analysed separately, because if these options are considered to be low, they may be worth only a few cents.

突破400美元并不寻常

Breaking $400 and Unusual

另一个被广泛使用的指标是高于和低于当前市场水平的未平仓量的比较。

Another widely used indicator is a comparison of unsavory amounts above and below current market levels.

为了减少400美元到期集中度的影响，应该分析低于/高于当前390美元的ETH价格6%的未平仓量。

In order to reduce the impact of 400 United States dollars in maturity concentration, 6 per cent of the ETH price below/above the current $390 should be analysed.

目前有53万ETH期权低于370美元的到期价格，而28万ETH的行权价高于400美元。这表明不管是看涨还是看跌，65%的期权行权价都低于当前市场水平。

There are currently 530,000 ETH options below the maturity price of $370, while 280,000 ETHs are worth more than $400. This suggests that 65 per cent of options are below current market levels, whether rising or falling.

这样的指标可能证明大多数交易员没有料到会有如此强劲的反弹，尽管这并不一定会转化为看空。

Such an indicator might prove that most traders did not expect such a strong rebound, although that did not necessarily translate into a vacuum.

如果有足够的时间，更多的交易应该会在400美元以上的行权价格进行，这个比例可能会自行平衡。

If there were enough time, more transactions would have been made at the right price of more than $400, which would have been self-balanced.

并非所有指标都是看跌的

期权倾斜度衡量的是看涨期权相对于类似风险的看跌期权的价格高低。衡量它的一个实操方法是将一个高于标的期货参考价格10%的看涨期权与低于10%的看跌期权进行比较。

The options tilt is measured by the price of an increase in the options relative to a similar risk. One way to measure it is to compare a 10 per cent increase in the futures reference price above the target with a 10 per cent drop in the options.

在一个中性市场中，两者的标价（公平）应该是非常相似的。如果看涨期权更贵，说明做市商要求更多的资金来保护上涨空间。

In a neutral market, the price (equity) should be very similar. If the options are more expensive, it means that the market requires more money to protect the space.

这是一个看涨信号，而反之，如果看跌期权较贵，则相当于看跌。

This is a sign of upswing and, conversely, if the right to look down is more expensive, it is tantamount to downswing.

8月8日，ETH市场相对于400美元的基础9月期货发出看涨信号。上行保护（看涨期权）10%以上的交易价格为0.082ETH，而下行保护（看跌期权）为0.0693，因此便宜了15.5%。

On 8 August, the ETH market sent up signals against the $400 base for September futures.

这无疑是一个看涨指标，不应该因为近期的价格变化而有所偏差，因为做市商会根据波动性和市场情况不断重新评估出价和报价。

This is undoubtedly an indicator of increase and should not be biased by recent price changes, as the Municipal Chamber of Commerce constantly reassesss offers and quotations in the light of volatility and market conditions.

期货合约也表现出看涨信号

futures contracts also show signs of upswing

期货合约最重要的一个指标是基础水平。这是通过比较1个月和3个月合约与当前现货价格来衡量的。

One of the most important indicators of futures contracts is the base level. This is measured by comparing contracts of one month and three months with current spot prices.

一个健康的市场应该显示出一种连续的情况，期货交易的年化溢价在5%或以上。

A healthy market should show a continuous situation, with an annual premium of 5 per cent or more on futures transactions.

看跌的市场将显示中性的基数，低于5%的年化，或者随着基数为负值而出现更糟糕的情况，即所谓的倒挂。

A falling market would show a neutral base figure of less than 5 per cent a year or worse, so-called upside-down, as the base figure is negative.

目前，ETH期货年化基数在过去两周一直维持在10%以上的水平，这表明从期货交易的角度来看，非常看涨。

At present, the annualized base of ETH futures has remained at over 10 per cent for the past two weeks, indicating a very significant increase from the point of view of futures transactions.

需要注意的是，目前20%的连动可能表明买家的杠杆率过高，但这并不一定是危险的。如果大部分杠杆期货头寸是在当前价格水平以下建立的，那么买方就有足够的舒适度来支付高额的利差成本。

It is important to note that the current 20% connection may indicate that the buyer’s leverage rate is too high, but this is not necessarily dangerous. If most leverage futures positions are established below current price levels, the buyer will have sufficient comfort to cover the high spread costs.

过往表现不足以预测未来的结果

许多技术分析交易者只分析日线图和周线图来洞察资产未来的可能性，但这产生的是对资产状况的不完整看法。

Many of the technical analysts analyse the possibilities of the future of the asset by analysing only the sun and the week map, but this leads to an incomplete view of the asset situation.

监测做市商目前如何对期权市场进行定价，以及当前未来合约的溢价状况，似乎是衡量专业交易者情绪的更好方法。

Monitoring the current pricing of options markets by marketers and the current premium status of future contracts seems to be a better way to measure the mood of professional traders.

期权认沽/认购比率和每个行权水平的持有量似乎都受到了两周多前发生的交易量的污染，当时以太坊的交易量低于300美元。

The stocking of the options/substitution ratio and each level of ownership appear to have been contaminated by transactions that took place more than two weeks ago, when transactions in Taiyo were less than $300.

目前，期权和期货市场的交易数据表明，专业交易员强烈看涨的观点。这是一个很好的迹象，表明400美元的阻力可以在未来几周内被突破。

Currently, trading data from the futures and futures markets show that professional traders are keenly looking at rising views. This is a good sign that $400 resistance can be broken in the coming weeks.