很多人认为，随着减半的到来，减半效应已经计入到比特币的价格中。2月中旬比特币价格曾经超过10,000美元，有人认为，这说明减半效应已经计入到比特币价格中。但随后的暴跌让计入价格的假说似乎陷入困境，尤其是所谓的有效市场假说，认为随着比特币减半预期的到来，比特币价格已经体现在减半行情上。
Many people think that xff0c; that xff0c as half has come; that the half effect has already been factored into the price of Bitcoin. By mid-February, Bitcoin prices had exceeded $10,000 xff0c; and that xff0c; this suggests that the half-percent effect has already been factored into bitcoin prices. But the subsequent collapse has left price-bearing hypothesis in a state of difficulty xff0c; in particular, the so-called effective market hypothesis xff0c; that xff0c as expected with bitcoin being halved; and that bitcoin prices are already reflected in the halving scenario.
如果从历史上看，确实存在减半效应。而减半效应在不同的时间尺度上存在不同的结果。因为人们的情绪往往易受短期价格波动的影响，很难从更长的时间尺度来看待比特币的减半效应，从而产生各种各样的争议。
If historically xff0c; indeed there is a halving effect. And the halving effect has different results at different time scales. Because people’s emotions are often vulnerable to short-term price fluctuations xff0c; it is difficult to see the halving effect of Bitcoin at a longer time scale xff0c; and there is a variety of controversy.
从2016减半来看，按照CMC的统计，比特币在2016年7月9日减半当天的价格为666.52美元。在减半前一年，比特币的总趋势是向上的，当然其间波动不断，这也是比特币的常态。尽管如此，在减半前，还是稍微凸显了一下减半效应。大约在减半前的一个半月的时间中，出现了一次明显的拉升和随后的下滑，以及之后长达4个多月的平缓期。
In terms of halving 2016, xff0c; according to CMC statistics xff0c; the price of Bitcoin was $666.52 on 9 July 2016. The overall trend in Bitcoin was upward xff0c one year before halving; of course, there was constant fluctuations between xff0c; this was also the normal pattern in Bitcoin. Nevertheless, xff0c; before halving xff0c; a slight emphasis was placed on the effect of halving. xff0c in about half a month before halving; there was a clear pull-off and subsequent decline xff0c; and then a flat period of more than four months.
这次明显的拉升持续将近1个月，大约从2016年5月20日开始到6月17日结束。其价格从438.72美元上涨到763.78美元，在不到一个月的时间里，价格上涨超过70%。不过，在距离2016年7月9日减半前的半个多月时间，价格向下调整，降至666.52美元。即便如此，也比一个月前上涨了50%以上。不过减半之后，比特币一直处于相对平稳和缓步上升的状态，并没有突破之前的763.78美元的高点，直到5个月之后的2016年底，才开启向1000美元级别新高突破。从这次减半后的历史轨迹看，比特币市场在减半后才开始开启进入牛市的状态，而抵达牛市顶峰则还需要接近一年半左右的时间。
The apparent boost lasted nearly a month xff0c; it started on 20 May 2016 and ended on 17 June 2016. The price rose from US$ 438.72 to US$ 763.78 xff0c; in less than a month xff0c; the price rose by more than 70%. But xff0c; more than half a month before the halving of 9 July 2016 xff0c; price adjustment xff0c; down to US$ 666.52; even so xff0c; more than 50% higher than a month ago. But after the halving, xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; ktco; the high of US$ 763.78 xff0c prior to the halving of the gap; xff0c; until the end of 2016 xff0c; xff0c; a new high of US$ 1000; from this halving, the historical trajectory of xff0c; and the start of the market at the start of the 50 per cent.
因此，如果从更大的时间尺度看，2016的减半是开启2017年牛市的开端。在减半日之前有近一个月时间的小小涨幅，但在整个一年多的牛市框架中，这只能算是小插曲。
So xff0c; if you look at xff0c at a larger timescale; if the half of 2016 is the start of the 2017 cattle market. There is a small increase of xff0c in almost a month before the reduction; but xff0c in the framework of the entire cattle market for more than a year; this is only a small episode.
也就是说，从2016年的减半来看，比特币的减半效应真正的价格计入不是一个两个月的事情，而可能是长达一年多的事情。其背后的最重要的原因之一就是比特币市场供应量的锐减，但它并不是立即反映到比特币的价格中，它对市场的底层影响，需要一年多的时间才能真正消化完毕。
In other words, xff0c; xff0c by half in 2016; real price accounting for the halving effect of bitcoins is not a two-month event xff0c; it may be more than a year. One of the most important reasons behind this is a sharp drop in the supply of bitcoins xff0c; it is not immediately reflected in bitcoin prices xff0c; its impact on the bottom of the market xff0c; and it takes more than a year to really digest.
当然，2016年的减半效应并非首次。首次是2012年11月28日的减半事件。减半前也曾有过上涨，但涨幅不是很明显，减半后横盘大约5个月，跟2016年有部分相似，之后才开始有明显爬升的过程，不过，其抵达牛市高峰的时间短于2016年，其抵达高峰大约花了一年多时间。（而2016年的减半，由于价格基数较大，抵达牛市的高峰期大约花了一年半时间。）假设按照这个逻辑，2020年的减半，整个市场对减半的消化可能需要更长的时间，假如需要两年的时间，那么这意味着从2020年5月开启的向上周期，可能需要到2020年底才开始有明显起色，2021和2022年有可能走向新高。
Of course xff0c; the effect of halving in 2016 was not the first time. The first was the event of halving the cattle peak on 28 November 2012. There was also an increase before halving xff0c; but the increase was not clear xff0c; about five months after halving xff0c; it was partly similar to the one in 2016 xff0c; it was not until then that there was a significant climb xff0c; however xff0c; its arrival at the cattle peak was shorter than xff0c in 2016; its arrival took some more than one year; xff08; xff0c in 2016; due to a large price base xff0c; the peak period of arrival at the cattle market took about one and a half years. xff09; assuming that, according to this logic, ff0c; halving by 2020 xff0; the entire market may need a longer time to cool down by x0; if it takes two years x0; this means of starting at the end of 20202020; 2020202000 ff.
第一次2012年11月28日减半前一年，比特币价格上涨超过300%，但并没有抵达之前的新高，减半后一年价格上涨超过1000%，完成比特币历史上最大的价格跨越，从10美元级别的比特币进入1000美元级别的比特币。第二次2016年7月9日减半前一年，比特币上涨大约超过100%，而减半后一年上涨了超过280%。
xff0c the year before the first halving on 28 November 2012; the price of Bitcoin rose more than 300% xff0c; the price of bitcoin did not rise before reaching xff0c; prices rose more than 1000% xff0c the year after halving; the largest price in Bitcoin history crossed xff0c; bitcoin entered 1000 United States dollars from the $10 level. xff0c the year before the second halving on 9 July 2016; bitcoin rose by about 100% xff0c; and the year after halving by more than 280%.
当然，每次减半所面临的市场环境和因素都不同，从蓝狐笔记的角度看，这种变化一定不会按照预测的“剧本”来，所有的预测都是天然有水分的。所以大家不能全面按照历史剧本来预测，要根据市场变化随时调整自己的看法。
Of course xff0c; the market environment and factors are different at every time to halve xff0c; from the point of view of the blue fox notes xff0c; this change must not be based on the predicted “play” xff0c; all predictions are naturally watery. So you cannot fully predict xff0c according to historical scripts; you have to adjust your views at any time to market changes.
总结来说，从一年的时间尺度看，由于比特币整体的向上趋势，所以不管是减半前和减半后，其整体趋势都是向上的。从蓝狐笔记的观察角度，即便如此，根据历史数据，还是可以看出两个特点：
In summary, xff0c; xff0c from a one-year time scale; due to an overall upward trend in bitcoin xff0c; therefore xff0c before and after halving; the overall trend is upward. From the angle of the blue fox notes xff0c; even so xff0c; based on historical data xff0c; or two features xff1a;
1.比特币的减半效应主要是减半之后逐步显示出来的，而不是减半前兑现的。不管是第一次还是第二次，比特币减半之后的价格增长都超过减半前的价格增长。
The half-per-cent effect of Bitcoin is mainly xff0c; it is not to be realized before it is halved. Price growth after the first and second xff0c; price growth after the halving of Bitcoin is to be exceeded by price growth before it is halved.
2.比特币减半效应消化的时间变长，第一次减半花了一年时间就抵达巅峰，超过1000美元。而第二次则花了一年半的时间抵达巅峰，接近20,000美元。第三次减半呢？会是什么情况？
xff0c; first halves take a year to reach the peak xff0c; over $1,000. The second takes a year and a half to reach the peak xff0c; nearly $20,000. Third halves xff1f; what happens xff1f;
为什么比特币的波动总是如此反复无常？
Why is Bitcoin always so volatile? #xff1f;
比特币在今年2月中旬还在10,000美元以上，而到了3月中旬就变成5,000美元了，一个月跌去了50%。也许它的波动看上去很大，但这是加密市场，这样的事情历史上屡次发生，并不稀奇。
Bitcoin was more than $10,000 xff0c in mid-February; by mid-March it became $5,000 xff0c; it fell by 50% a month. Perhaps it looked very volatile xff0c; but this is the cryptomarket xff0c; this is something that has happened repeatedly in the history of xff0c; and it is no surprise.
如何理解比特币波动的反复无常？波动如此之大，为什么还有人冠之于“数字黄金”的称号？
How to understand the volatility of bitcoin fluctuations xff1f; how the volatility is so great xff0c; why there are still people who have the title “digital gold” xff1f;
造成比特币市场反复无常的因素肯定不止一个两个，有宏观经济大环境的因素，有比特币自身属性的因素，有投机者操纵市场的因素，也有加密市场结构不完善的因素等。每个阶段导致它波动的主力因素可能不完全一样，有时是其中的一个因素主导，有时是多个因素同时复合推动。
The volatility of the Bitcoin market is certainly caused by more than one xff0c; one xff0c; one xff0c; one xff0c; one xff0c; one xff0c; one xff0c; one , ,
比如2月中旬的黑天鹅跟疫情爆发和原油价格竞争等大经济环境相关，也跟加密市场的整体结构等相关。当时的经济大环境导致全世界出现流动性危机，比特币和黄金都无法避免被卷入。而这些危机的触发，导致加密市场的下跌，同时由于市场杠杆过高，触发清算，进而导致快速下跌，而过快的下跌让加密市场结构不完善的特性显露无遗。加密货币当前的基础设施，尤其是吞吐量和速度根本无法在短时间内支撑大规模的加密交易，而加密交易场所天然分散，加剧了这种危机，清算无法顺利进行，导致价格非理性暴跌。
For example, in mid-February, black swans were associated with large economic environments such as the outbreak of the epidemic and oil price competition xff0c; they were also associated with the overall structure of the encryption market. The economic environment at that time led to a liquidity crisis worldwide xff0c; bitcoin and gold that could not be avoided. The triggers of these crises xff0c; the decline in the encryption market xff0c; the natural dispersion of the cryptotrade site xff0c; the triggering of the liquidation xff0c; the consequent rapid decline xff0c; and the unsoundness of the encryption market structure.
与此同时，比特币市场上的参与者，投资基金、持币人、短期交易者、套利者等都无法在暴跌面前保持理性，这进一步加剧了下跌。多种因素的共同作用，导演了3.12黑天鹅的完美风暴。
At the same time xff0c; participants in the Bitcoin market xff0c; investment funds, currency holders, short-term traders, arbitrators, etc. are unable to maintain rationality in the face of collapse xff0c; this further exacerbates the decline. The combination of multiple factors xff0c; and directing the perfect storm of 3.12 black swans.
在这次黑天鹅之后，在加密交易所上，安静地躺着超过10亿美元的USDT和USDC稳定币。其中，有一部分就是避险的资金。从中也可以看出，当前来看，充当资产避风港的还是稳定币。（值得注意的是，如果按照当前的价格，这些资金足以消化减半后5个月的新增代币量。这个势能还是充足的。）
After this black swan, xff0c; on an encrypted exchange xff0c; lying silently on over $1 billion USDT and USDC Stable Currency. xff0c; part of it is hedge money. This also shows xff0c; currently looking xff0c; whether it is a stable currency to act as a safe haven for assets. xff08; noteworthy xff0c; if at current prices xff0c; these funds are sufficient to absorb the new currency in five months after halving. xff09 is still sufficient.
（数据来源tokenanalyst）
抛开这些几乎无法预测的市场环境、黑天鹅等因素，那么比特币波动为什么总是反复无常？这里有一个根本因素，就是比特币自身的设计机制决定了它的波动性。
Leaving aside these almost unpredictable market environments, black swans, etc. xff0c; then why is bitcoin always volatile xff1f; here is a fundamental factor xff0c; that is, bitcoin's own design mechanism determines its volatility.
比特币的博弈机制是决定其价格波动性的重要原因。比特币的最终目标且不管是数字黄金，还是资产的避风港，或者是为全球提供结算层。在抵达其最终目标之前，比特币价格的巨大波动性，一定会伴随其左右。从某种意义上，这是来自其自身的属性，而不是其本身的缺陷。
Bitcoin’s game mechanism is an important factor in determining price volatility. Bitcoin’s ultimate goal is whether it is digital gold & #xff0c; a safe haven for assets & #xff0c; or a global clearinghouse. Before reaching its ultimate goal & #xff0c; the huge volatility of Bitcoin prices & #xff0c; it must be around it. In a sense xff0c; this is from its own attributes & #xff0c; not its own flaws.
比特币的货币政策有两个最重要的设计：
There are two most important designs for the monetary policy of Bitcoin xff1a;
一是，固定上限，只有2100万枚。
One is xff0c; fixed cap xff0c; only 21 million.
二是，每21万个区块奖励减半。
The second is xff0c; the incentive is reduced by half for every 210,000 blocks.
比特币的货币发行机制决定了，所有的矿工只能竞争固定量的代币，这是一种完全的零和博弈机制。一个矿工的得到就意味着市场上其他矿工的失去。这样的博弈机制，一方面导致矿工为了获得奖励，拼命提高算力，以获得更大份额的奖励。但是算力背后的核心是矿机设备的效率和电费。尤其是电力成本占据了挖矿的绝大部分成本。在某种意义上，电力成本的竞争决定了矿工之间的生死存亡。
The currency distribution mechanism in Bitcoin determines xff0c; all miners can compete only for fixed amounts of tokens xff0c; this is a complete zero-sum game mechanism. The acquisition of a miner means the loss of other miners in the market. The game mechanism xff0c, on the one hand, leads miners to reward xff0c; struggles to increase their arithmetic xff0c; and gets a larger share of the reward. But the core of the calculation is efficiency and electricity costs.
因此，对于矿工来说，挖矿从来都是一种残酷的成本之战。这是比特币自身的博弈机制所决定的。比特币非弹性发行的机制，导致矿工之间的激励竞争。
So xff0c; xff0c for miners; mining is always a cruel cost battle. It's determined by Bitcoin's own game mechanism. Bitcoin's inflexible distribution mechanism xff0c; leading to incentive competition among miners.
比特币在货币政策上非常刚性，没有丝毫的弹性，而有意思的是，比特币在另外一个方面非常有弹性。比特币的难度调整为比特币带来足够的弹性。难度调整本身也是为了实现其固定代币发行的必要机制设计。不管如何，难度调整是比特币博弈机制上最伟大的设计之一。它为比特币带来了持续的安全，也可以持续维持螺旋上升的弹力。
Bitcoin is very rigid in monetary policy & #xff0c; there is no elasticity & #xff0c; and interestingly & #xff0c; bitcoin is very resilient in another way. Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment brings sufficient elasticity to bitcoin. The difficulty adjustment itself is designed to achieve the necessary mechanism for its fixed currency issuance.
而难度调整的博弈机制，其本质上也是对比特币价格本身的自我调整。当比特币价格虚高，比特币挖矿的矿工会蜂拥而入，其中也包括很多低效的矿工，他们也可以从中赚钱，因为相对于成本，比特币的价格足以支撑起低效率。
The hard-to-reform game mechanism & #xff0c; it is also inherently self-adjusted by the price of the bitcoin itself. When bitcoin prices are too high & #xff0c; when bitcoin mining unions rush into #xff0c; it also includes a number of inefficient miners & #xff0c; they can also make money from it xff0c; because the price relative to cost #xff0c; bitco’s price is enough to support inefficiencies.
但比特币为了实现其固定发行量，在矿工竞争激烈时，它会提高难度，这会导致原来盈利的矿工亏损。为维持挖矿成本，低效的矿工有更强烈的抛售比特币的需求。如果这个时候，恰好还有其他的触发下跌因素，例如3.12黑天鹅事件导致比特币价格下跌近50%，这种情况下，低效矿工根本无法支撑生存，只能抛售，只能关机。这进一步带来市场的下行调整。比特币的价格市场处于看跌的状态。随着低效矿工退出市场，比特币的难度过高，出块困难，产生了难度调整需求。随着难度调整到来，算力比例重新分配，幸存下来的高效矿工可以获得更多的btc收益。这部分矿工没有强烈的抛售需求，这有利于稳定比特币的价格。
But Bitcoin has a stronger demand to sell bitcoin in order to achieve its fixed distribution xff0c; when the miners compete strongly xff0c; it will increase the difficulty xff0c; this will result in losses for formerly profitable miners. In order to maintain mining costs xff0c; inefficient miners have a stronger demand to sell bitcoin. If xff0c at this time xff0c; there are other triggers to decline xff0c; for example, the 3.12 Black Goose incident has caused the price to fall by nearly 50% xff0c; in this case xff0c; inefficient miners are simply unable to sustain xff0c; this has led to a downward adjustment in the market.
可以说，作为每个月可以产生4亿美元抛压的市场主体来说，其中的激烈博弈会带来比特币价格的持续波动，如果加上市场上其他因素的诱发、比如宏观经济的调整、投机者过高杠杆等，这都会进一步加速市场的波动。
It can be said that xff0c; that xff0c, as the subject of a market that can generate $400 million a month, xff0c; that xff0c , ,
总言之，在比特币抵达最终使命之前，其自身属性决定了它必然会有波动伴随左右。
Overall #xff0c; #xff0c before Bitcoin reaches its final mission; its own attributes determine that it is bound to fluctuate.
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