马斯克减持 比特币暴跌

　　来源：北京商报

Source: Beijing Chamber of Commerce

　　这个周末，用“血流成河”来形容加密市场的暴跌恐怕并不为过。比特币价格跌至2.5万美元，以太坊更是跌破1600美元，其他山寨币也纷纷下挫，市场情绪处于悲观之中。更令人担忧的是，当前加密市场由于缺乏新的故事，也没有新的利好消息出现，行业已行至十字路口。

This weekend, it is probably not too bad to use the word “blooded” to describe the collapse of the crypto market. Bitcoin fell to $25,000, with the same price falling to $1,600, other bounties falling down, and market sentiment pessimistic.

　　血流成河

/strong'

　　比特币等虚拟货币近两日再遇暴跌。8月20日，北京商报记者注意到，在小幅震荡两个月之后，比特币于8月18日价格闪崩，从8月17日的2.85万美元，一度跌至8月18日的2.52万美元，24小时跌幅超11.5%。

Virtual currency, such as Bitcoin, fell again nearly two days ago. On August 20, a Beijing newspaper reporter noticed that, two months after a small shock, Bitcoin’s price collapsed on August 18, from $285 million on August 17 to $252 million on August 18, a 24-hour drop of over 11.5 per cent.

　　“考虑到债券市场正在发生的事情，比特币价格很容易走软”，Oanda的高级市场分析师Edward Moya表示。

“In view of what is happening in the bond market, bitcoin prices can easily be softened”, by Edward & nbsp, an Oanda senior market analyst; Moya.

　　这轮下跌几乎抹去了6月15日贝莱德出人意料地申请比特币ETF后实现的大部分涨幅。在第一季度飙升72%之后，比特币自3月底以来已经下跌了约9%。去年，在一系列行业丑闻和破产事件中，比特币暴跌了64%。

This round of decline almost wiped out most of the increase achieved on June 15 after Belet applied unexpectedly for the Bitcoin ETF. After a 72% surge in the first quarter, Bitcoin has fallen by about 9% since the end of March.

　　截至8月20日10时20分，比特币价格小幅度回调，最新价格报2.61万美元，24小时涨幅0.44%，近7天跌幅10.88%，近30天跌幅12.97%。

As at 1020 hours on 20 August, the price of Bitcoin had returned slightly, with the latest price being $261 million, a 24-hour increase of 0.44 per cent, a decline of 10.88 per cent for almost seven days and a decline of 12.97 per cent for nearly 30 days.

　　除比特币外，以太坊、瑞波币、币安币等同样未能幸免。8月18日内，以太坊同样最大跌幅超13%，一度跌破1600美元关口，截至8月20日报1667美元，24小时涨幅0.46%，近7天跌幅9.41%，近30天跌幅12.58%；币安币最新价格则报215美元，24小时下跌0.04%，近7天跌幅10.25%，近3月跌幅达30.36%。

With the exception of Bitcoin, Etheria, Ripauco, Coin, etc., were not spared. On August 18, the same largest drop occurred by 13%, with the same drop of $1,600 at a time, up by 0.46% 24 hours as August 20, down by 9.41% for almost seven days and down by 12.58% for nearly 30 days; the latest price of the Coin fell by $215 and 0.04% for 24 hours, 10.25% for nearly seven days, and 30.36% in March.

　　值得一提的是，加密货币市场的暴跌也导致合约市场血流成河。据第三方行业服务商coinglass的数据显示，最近24小时，共有17.1万人爆仓，爆仓总金额为10.18亿美元。超过去年加密货币交易所FTX爆雷期间引发的8亿美元爆仓，仅次于2021年5月19日加密货币市场大跌引发的13亿美元爆仓和2020年3月12日加密货币市场暴跌引发的30亿美元爆仓。

According to the data of the third-party service provider Coinglass, a total of 171,000 people have exploded in the last 24 hours, amounting to $1,018 million. More than $800 million exploded last year during the FTX mine of the encrypted currency exchange, followed only by $1.3 billion in the explosion caused by the crash of the encrypted currency market on 19 May 2021 and $3 billion in the explosion caused by the crash of the encrypted currency market on 12 March 2020.

　　流动危机

Mobility Crisis >

　　有市场观点认为，比特币本轮下跌与马斯克SpaceX出售持有的比特币有关。消息面上，据报道，马斯克旗下的SpaceX在去年和2021年，总共减记了价值3.73亿美元的比特币，并且已经出售这些虚拟货币。另外，特斯拉对其持有的比特币也采取了类似的做法。不过目前尚未确认3.73亿美元比特币是否已经全部出售，出售时间也不明确。不过市场猜测，虚拟货币本次下跌可能是受到马斯克旗下SpaceX出售比特币的驱动。

There is a market view that the decline in the Bitcoin current round is related to the sale of the Bitcoins held by Mascque SpaceX. According to the news, last year and 2021, SpaceX under the Mask flag reportedly recorded a total of $373 million in bitcoins and sold them. In addition, Tesla has taken a similar approach to the Bitcoins held by him.

　　美国证券交易委员会（SEC）就瑞波币裁决提出上诉的动议将使美国数字资产空间陷入困境，出现看跌的价格情景，监管不确定性继续困扰加密货币市场。

A motion by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to appeal the Ribbon award would put the United States digital asset space in a difficult position, with price scenarios that would fall and regulatory uncertainties that would continue to plague the crypto-currency market.

　　另外，有分析人士认为，全球各国国债收益率持续攀升，也为虚拟货币市场带来压力，例如，美国30年期国债利率一度升至4.42%，刷新2011年以来的最高水平；10年期国债收益率最高升至4.32%，为连续第六个交易日走高，这不仅抑制了虚拟货币价格，而且对传统市场的风险资产造成打击。

In addition, analysts have argued that the continued rise in the rate of return on national debt across the globe has also put pressure on virtual currency markets, for example, the 30-year rate of interest on national debt in the United States has risen to 4.42 per cent, up from its highest level since 2011; and the 10-year rate of return on national debt has risen to 4.32 per cent, rising to the sixth consecutive day of transactions, which not only discourages virtual currency prices but also strikes at risk assets in traditional markets.

　　同时，近期美股也出现下跌趋势，美国此前以人工智能和优异财报吸引了一波资金，而现在高利率环境的压力可能传导至股市，即使股市下跌，资金也难以流入加密市场。

At the same time, there has been a recent downward trend in the United States stock market, where the United States has previously attracted a wave of funds with artificial intelligence and excellent financial returns, and where pressure from the current high-interest-rate environment may be passed on to the stock market, which, even if it falls, is difficult to channel funds into the encrypted market.

　　回顾近年来价格变动，业内对于虚拟货币价格的暴涨暴跌早有预期。正如浙江大学国际联合商学院数字经济与金融创新研究中心联席主任、研究员盘和林在接受北京商报记者采访时指出，“任何泡沫可持续的前提是流动性宽松，但美联储连续加息大背景下，全球流动性收紧已成必然，所以币圈有了新一轮跌势，这是一个去泡沫的过程，当然，除此之外，各国监管对虚拟货币的制约也是一个因素，但关键还是流动性的问题”。

Looking back at price changes in recent years, a sharp drop in virtual currency prices is expected. As the co-director, researcher, and Lin of the Center for Research on Digital Economy and Financial Innovation of Zhejiang University’s United Business School International, in an interview with a journalist from the Beijing Business Journal, noted, “The sustainability of any bubble presupposes ease of liquidity, but global liquidity tightening is inevitable in the context of successive high interest increases by the Fed, so there is a new downward trend in the currency circle, which is a process to roll out the bubble, apart, of course, the constraints on virtual currency in national regulation are also a factor, but the key is still a matter of liquidity”.

　　量化交易公司Dexterity Capital的合伙人Michael Safai则表示：“加密货币领域没有足够好的头条新闻让人们兴奋。”“相反，利率上升和风险偏好减弱正在推动非加密货币交易员转向更安全的资产。”

Quantified trading company Dexterity  Capital's partner Michael  and Safai stated: “There is not enough good headline news in the area of encryption money to excite people.” “Citizen interest rates and reduced risk preferences, on the contrary, are driving unencrypted currency traders towards safer assets.”

　　回归理性

/strang'

　　比特币无疑正处于十字路口。美国证券交易委员会的上诉、《鲁米斯-吉利布兰德法案》等潜在立法以及ETF的不确定性为比特币带来了一个不稳定的关键时刻。

Bitcoin is undoubtedly at a crossroads. The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s appeal, potential legislation such as the Rumith-Gilibrand Act, and the uncertainty of the ETF have created a critical juncture for Bitcoin’s instability.

　　在盘和林看来，下跌风险下，不少虚拟货币甚至有可能归零，因为很多币种本身没有任何信用支撑，靠的就是投资人的信仰；除此之外，还有个风险不能忽视，即近几次风险主要来自于交易所，例如交易所经常利用用户的真金白银汇集资金池，去放大杠杆炒作币价，在盘和林看来，这种监守自盗的行为在市场处于熊市的时候，爆雷可能性更高。

In addition to the risk of falling, which may even be zero, given that many currencies themselves have no credit support and rely on investors'beliefs, there is a risk that recent risks will not be overlooked, such as the fact that exchanges often use the real silver pool of their users to magnify their leverage for currency prices, and that, in the case of trades and forests, self-inflicted theft is more likely to explode when the market is in a bear market.

　　有关分析也指出，对于投资者来说，确实需要谨慎选择投资项目。那些市值较大、持续释放代币的项目风险相对较高，因为它们的底部难以预测。此外，与比特币的PoW机制不同，大部分这类代币没有生产成本，理论上可能归零。

The analysis also points out that, for investors, there is a real need for caution in selecting investment projects. Projects with a high market value and a sustained release of money are relatively risky because their bottom level is difficult to predict.

　　在国内，就在不久前，一些虚拟货币交易炒作活动再次抬头。北京商报记者注意到，近期就有多家币圈交易所投放“注册即领比特币”的营销广告，另除了交易所的非法营销活动外，一些以虚拟货币为幌子的诈骗、非法集资陷阱也层出不穷。

Domestically, just recently, some virtual currency transactions have resurfaced. According to a reporter from the Beijing Times, a number of currency circles have recently placed “registry or bitcoin” marketing advertisements, and, in addition to the exchange's illegal marketing activities, a number of frauds and illegal fund-raising traps, under the guise of virtual currency, have been rife.

　　对此，中国人民银行上海总部6月接连发布《谨防NFT、元宇宙炒作等相关风险》和《对虚拟货币交易炒作相关非法金融活动说“不”》的提示，要正确认识虚拟货币及相关业务活动的本质属性、树立正确的投资观念、选择正规金融机构的投资理财产品；不要组织参与虚拟货币交易炒作活动、不要轻信高收益高回报等宣传、不要轻易泄露个人信息及转账。

In response, the Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China issued successive reminders in June, such as “NFT” and “No” to the “fiction of illicit financial activities related to virtual currency transactions”, to properly understand the nature of the virtual currency and related operations, to establish the right concept of investment and to select the investment-related property of formal financial institutions; to refrain from organizing campaigns that involve participation in virtual currency transactions; to refrain from trusting in high returns; and to refrain from easily disclosing personal information and transfers.

　　“未来监管还会对币圈违法违规行为进行严打。不过因为部分跨境交易势必还要用到虚拟币，因此虚拟货币和区块链不会消亡，但高币值本身就不是理性体现，未来回归理性是大势所趋。”盘和林建议，对于参与者来说，炒币已经过气，不要参与为好。

“Future regulation will also take a heavy toll on irregularities in the currency ring. But, because some cross-border transactions are bound to go to virtual currency, virtual currency and block chains will not disappear, but the value of the high currency itself is not a manifestation of reason.

责任编辑：周唯