2023年币圈首只“黑天鹅”来了！DCG处于破产边缘，手握63万枚比特币或将灰飞烟灭

华夏时报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者胡金华 上海报道

Reporter Hu Jinhua, Chinatimes.net.cn.

经历了项目跑路、平台破产、资本爆仓等一系列事件的加密数字货币市场，在2022年尾清淡的交投行情下，注定将以低迷收盘。然而看似平静的加密数字货币市场，在岁末年初的时候或将面临一场更大的危机，也极有可能是2023年币圈飞出的第一只“黑天鹅”。

After a series of events, such as project run-offs, platform failures, capital busts, etc., the crypto-digital money market is doomed to a low-end run-off in late 2022. However, the seemingly calm digital money market may face an even greater crisis at the end of the year, and most likely the first “black swan” to fly out of the 2023 currency circle.

“月初数字货币集团（Digital Currency Group，下称‘DCG’）就被曝出陷入财务困境。当时荷兰加密货币交易所Bitvavo声称，DCG由于当前加密市场的动荡，正在经历流动性问题已经暂停还款，直到流动性问题得到解决，持续时间将从数天至数周，目前尚没有明确的解决方案出来。这对于加密行业来说，或将又是一个黑天鹅事件。”12月27日，香港资深行业分析师 Sophia Chen忧心忡忡地对《华夏时报》记者表示。

“Digital Policy Group (hereinafter “DCG”) was exposed to financial distress at the beginning of the month. At that time, Bitvavo, the Dutch crypto-currency exchange, claimed that DCG was experiencing liquidity problems that had been suspended due to the current turmoil in the encryption market, until the liquidity problem was resolved, and that there was no clear solution.

当地时间12月8日，DCG的子公司之一、加密交易和借贷机构Genesis向客户发布了一份邮件，表示其解决流动性问题需要更多时间；更早前的11月10日，Genesis宣布其在FTX交易账户中存有价值约1.75亿美元的资金无法提出，彼时最大的加密资产交易平台FTX暴雷宣布破产；11月16日，Genesis便再次以此为由宣布暂停提款，同时也停止了新贷款的发放服务。

On 8 December local time, Genesis, a subsidiary of DCG, the encrypt trading and lending agency, sent a letter to the client stating that it would take more time to resolve the liquidity problem; on 10 November earlier, Genesis announced that it had some $175 million worth of funds in the FTX trading account that could not be submitted and that the largest encrypted asset trading platform, FTX, had been declared bankrupt; and on 16 November, Genesis had again suspended withdrawals on this ground and had also stopped issuing services for new loans.

作为灰度投资公司（Grayscale Investments）的母公司，DCG手握63万枚比特币，如果在2023年初DCG最终宣布破产，那么这63万枚比特币最终将从市场“消失”。

As the parent company of Grayscale Investments, DCG held 630,000 bitcoins, and if the DCG was finally declared bankrupt in early 2023, the 630,000 bitcoins would eventually be “disappeared” from the market.

危机重重的币圈

在业内人士看来，市场正在等待方向性的选择，比特币价格已经连续八周在1.65万美元附近盘整，既不向上突破，也不向下掉头。

According to insiders, the market is waiting for a directional choice, and bitcoin prices have been rounded up around $16.5 million for eight weeks, neither breaking upwards nor turning downwards.

事实上，这起正在酝酿中的风险事件并不孤立，与今年以来加密数字货币市场发生的数起大事件紧密联系在一起。在今年7月三箭资本爆仓发生后，其欠下的债务高达35亿美元，而现在陷入流动性危机中的Genesis曾是三箭资本的最大债权人，并为此蒙受了12亿美元损失，母公司DCG当时提供了9亿美元的救场资金，让其躲过一劫。

Indeed, this unfolding risk event is not isolated, and is closely linked to a number of major events that have taken place in the encrypted digital money market since this year. After the three arrow capital explosion in July this year, its debt was as high as $3.5 billion, and Genesis, now caught in a liquidity crisis, was the largest creditor of the three arrow capital and suffered losses of $1.2 billion, with its parent, DCG, then providing $900 million worth of life-saving money.

但是正所谓躲得了初一，躲不了十五。“FTX的破产让Genesis雪上加霜，其数亿美元资产成为泡影，市场传言其寻求币安收购，但该消息迅速被币安否认；值得一提的是，FTX破产之前也曾寻求币安的庇护，但是币安以FTX的业务及利益述求与其相冲突，随后FTX就宣告破产，当前情况等于连环爆雷，只是这个雷更大。”12月28日，上海加密资产行业专家王衡接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。

“The bankruptcy of the FTX has made it worse for Genesis, whose hundreds of millions of dollars of assets have been lost, and the market rumours that it was seeking to buy the currency were quickly denied by the currency; it is worth mentioning that the FTX sought refuge in the currency before the bankruptcy, but that the FTX’s business and interests were in conflict with it, followed by the bankruptcy of the FTX, which is now tantamount to a series of thunderbolts, which is all the more so. On December 28, an expert in the Shanghai encryption industry, Wang Xian, gave an interview with the Washington Times journalist.

此前CoinDesk曾援引消息人士称，除了此前Gemini因三箭资本爆仓欠下债权人9亿美元债务外，Genesis第二批以Proskauer Rose律师事务所为代表的债权人的贷款额也达到9亿美元，目前已披露的债务总额为18亿美元，因FTX破产签下的第三组贷款额可能更多。

CoinDesk had previously quoted sources that, in addition to the $900 million debt previously owed by Gemini to creditors by three arrow capital busts, the second instalment of Genesis creditors represented by Proskauer Rose had also reached $900 million, and that the total amount of debt currently disclosed was $1.8 billion, possibly more under the third group of loans under the FTX bankruptcy.

“绝对不止仅有目前的1.75亿美元，至少得十亿美元级别以上。”王衡预测。

“It is absolutely more than the current $175 million, at least more than a billion grades.” The King's Balance forecast.

“Genesis债权人可能会要求其母公司DCG赎回Genesis价值11亿美元的十年期票据来偿债，这说明第三组债务非常高，这将把DCG拖下水，彻底枯竭母子公司的流动性从而导致其破产。Genesis债权人已经保持了数周的的沉默或许意味着其正在给DCG和Genesis时间来解决问题。”对此，Dragonfly Capital合伙人Haseeb Qureshi也在12月27日邮件回复《华夏时报》记者时指出。

“Genesis creditors may ask their parent company DCG to redeem Genesis’s $1.1 billion ten-year bill, which indicates that the third group of debt is very high, which will drag DCG down and completely dry up the parent subsidiary’s liquidity, leading to its bankruptcy. Genesis’s creditors have been silent for weeks, perhaps implying that they are giving DCG and Genesis time to solve the problem.” In response, Draganfly Capital’s partner, Haseeb Qureshi, also pointed out in his reply to the Washington Times reporter on 27 December.

记者粗略测算发现，最坏的结局作为母公司的DCG向市场抛售63万枚比特币，如果以当前的市场价计算，DCG的资产总计约为104亿美元，但是这63万枚比特币即是DCG的资产，也是他的负债。

The journalist's rough calculations found that the worst result was the sale to the market of 630,000 bitcoins by the parent company's DCG, which, if measured at current market prices, totalled approximately $10.4 billion, but the 630,000 bitcoins were the assets of DCG and his liabilities.

简而言之，为了在加密货币市场上获取高收益，DCG参与了币圈灰度资本发行的比特币信托基金GBTC，其业务模式就是以DCG为代表的一众市场机构认购GBTC然后向市场投资者发行，换购等额的比特币，半年内收取2%的管理费，半年后投资者可以将持有的GBTC兑换成比特币。如果比特币价格在期限内“水涨船高”，那么DCG不仅可以获取管理费，还可以获得GBTC上涨带来的超额收益。

In short, in order to generate high returns in the crypto-currency market, DCG is involved in the Bitcoin Trust Fund GBTC, which issues grey currency capital in the currency circle. The business model is that a market agency represented by DCG subscribes to GBTC and issues it to market investors in exchange for the equivalent of GBTC, with a 2 per cent overhead charge over a six-month period, in which investors can convert their holdings into bitcoins. If the bitcoin price is “higher than the ship” over a period of time, then DCG can obtain not only management fees, but also excess gains from the GBTC increase.

现实情况是，比特币今年下半年跌幅又超过了50%，DCG不仅没有获得超额收益，GBTC也跟随者比特币价格一路下行，DCG的此项操作产生了巨幅亏损。

The reality is that Bitcoin fell by more than 50 per cent in the second half of the year, that the DCG not only did not generate excess gains, but also that the GBTC followed the Bitcoin price down, and that the DCG operation resulted in a huge loss.

“DCG即使把全部比特币向市场抛售也弥补不了产生的巨大窟窿，而且窟窿还不止一个，而是三个：其一是子公司Genesis的超过三十亿美元的亏损；其二是GBTC接近一半的浮亏；其三是这些比特币不是DCG自身的，而是等额从市场投资者手上兑换过来的，严格来说是一种债务。也就是说，DCG去年通过GBTC圈了200多亿美元的比特币，但是现在已经缩水了一般，看上去拥有63万枚比特币，实际上单这一项持有的亏损就超过百亿美元，又如何去救旗下子公司。”王衡表示。

“DCG, even if it sells all of the bitcoins to the market, will not make up for the huge hole that has been created, and the hole is more than one, but three: one is the loss of its subsidiary Genesis of over $3 billion; the other is the loss of almost half of the GBTC; the third is the fact that the bitcoins were exchanged not by the DCG itself, but by the same amount from the market investors, which is a debt, strictly speaking. That is, the DCG was able to circle over $20 billion bitcoins last year through the GBTC, but it has now shrunk and now appears to have 630,000 bitcoins, actually holding more than $1 billion in losses, and how to save its subsidiaries under the flag.”

还有一点，就是如果DCG真的选择把持有的比特币向市场抛售，如此萎靡的币圈市场根本无法承受巨量比特币流入的冲击，只能导致进一步的市场暴跌。

Also, if DCG really chooses to sell its holdings of bitcoins to the market, such a weak currency circle is simply unable to withstand the impact of large bitcoins inflows, which can only lead to further market collapses.

比特币或跌至万美元以下

bitcoin or down to

“如果Genesis无法在近期筹集到资金缓解危机，很有可能最终将面临破产的结局。如果Genesis破产，对DCG的业务和加密行业势必会造成一些影响，但最主要的还是取决于未来灰度比特币信托基金GBTC将如何发展。”中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席于佳宁分析认为。

“If Genesis is unable to raise funds to mitigate the crisis in the near future, it is likely to end up in bankruptcy. If Genesis goes bankrupt, there will inevitably be some impact on DCG’s operations and on the encryption industry, but above all it will depend on how the future Greyscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC will develop.” The Co-Chair of the District Chain Committee of the China Communications Industry Association in Janin's analysis.

而作为“始作俑者”发行方的灰度资本，过去时间内所提出的解决方法是由官方出资收购GBTC，还多次向美国SEC申请把GBTC转为比特币现货ETF，一旦该申请通将扭转当前颓势。

As the “starter” issuer's greyscale capital, the solution proposed in the past was an official acquisition of the GBTC and a number of applications to the United States SEC for the conversion of the GBTC to the Bitcoin spot ETF, which, if applied, would reverse the current decline.

不过此举显然将戳破比特币是基于区块链技术衍生物的“神话”，也就是以中心化发行类比特币的方式，增加灰度以及关联方DCG手上持有的比特币数量，还给投资者，等于彻头彻尾的撕开以比特币为代表的加密数字货币市场的欺诈本性。

However, it is clear that the “myth” that punctured bitcoin is based on technical derivatives of block chains, i.e. increasing the greyscale and the amount of bitcoins held in the hands of the related party DCG by centralizing the distribution of bitcoins, to the investor, would be tantamount to tearing apart the fraudulent nature of the encrypted digital currency market, which is represented by bitcoin.

“这种方式相当于经济危机中企业希望央行能够向市场‘注水’，提供大量的现金直至流动性危机解决。但是跟传统金融本质的区别是，假设所有加密数字货币市场的参与者基于对比特币的信仰，总量是固定的，谁也无法多创造或减少比特币，那么就不能用ETF的形式变相提供另外一种可替代比特币的交易品，等于彻底打破了比特币不可再生、不可复制的特点。此举也会彻底摧毁加密货币市场的信心，使得整个市场沦为一个再明显不过的庞氏骗局。”对此，上海一家大型金融机构创新金融部门负责人对《华夏时报》记者分析指出。

“This approach is equivalent to an economic crisis in which firms expect central banks to provide large amounts of cash to the market – until the liquidity crisis is resolved. But, unlike the traditional financial nature, assuming that all participants in the encrypted digital money market are based on the Bitcoin belief that the total is fixed and that no one can create or reduce bitcoin more, the inability to provide a substitute for bitcoin in the form of an ETF is tantamount to a complete break with the non-renewable and non-repelicable character of bitcoin.

欧易研究院高级研究员赵伟则表示，一旦DCG暴雷，对加密行业造成的负面影响不会亚于FTX和LUNA事件，不仅会严重打压行业从业者信心，导致二级市场抛压增大，还会对加密行业声誉造成进一步伤害，令传统金融机构望而却步。

According to Zhao Wei, a senior researcher at the OIL Institute, the negative impact on the encryption industry in the event of a DCG thunderstorm would not be less severe than the FTX and LUNA events, which would not only severely stifling the confidence of industry practitioners, which would lead to an increase in secondary market pressure, but would also cause further damage to the reputation of the encryption industry and discourage traditional financial institutions.

于佳宁也同样分析称，如果Genesis和DCG都申请破产清算，那么正如Luna、三箭资本、FTX的失败对加密市场的诸多机构造成连锁影响一样，二者也会影响到许多机构的正常运转，甚至可以说在一定程度上其造成的后续影响可能会比前几者的破产还要深远。

It was similarly analysed that if Genesis and DCG applied for liquidation, just as the failure of Luna, Three Arrow Capital and FTX could have a chain effect on many institutions in the cryptographic market, they could affect the normal functioning of many institutions, even to some extent have a more profound impact than the bankruptcy of previous ones.

今年发生在加密货币市场上的Terra Luna暴雷事件，仅清算了8万个比特币，就使得比特币的价格就一路从4万美元暴跌至2万美元以下。如果DCG的63.4万枚BTC一旦发生清算，那么比特币的价格跌幅不可想象。

This year’s Terra Luna thunderstorm on the crypto-currency market, with just 80,000 bitcoins liquidated, caused Bitcoin’s price to drop sharply from $40,000 to less than $20,000. If the 634,000 BTCs of DCG were liquidated, it would be inconceivable that Bitcoin’s price would fall.

值得一提的是，在12月23日，据海外媒体报道称，作为FTX破产时间中的核心人物——FTX创始人山姆·班克曼-弗里德，被纽约一名法官批准以2.5亿美元的保释金获释，其在巴哈马被引渡后首次在纽约联邦法院出庭，在等待审判期间，他的行动将受到一系列限。山姆·班克曼-弗里德下次出庭时间为2023年1月3日，他的罪名被初步定性为性质及其恶劣的欺诈。

It is worth mentioning that on 23 December, according to overseas media reports, Sam Bankman Fried, founder of FTX, was released on bail of $250 million by a judge in New York and his first appearance in the Federal Court of New York following the extradition of the Bahamas, and his actions will be subject to a series of restrictions while awaiting trial. Sam Bankman Fried, whose next appearance was held on 3 January 2023, was initially characterised as character and aggravated fraud.

美国助理检察官Nicolas Roos12月23日在法庭上指出，山姆·班克曼-弗里德是“史诗级欺诈案”的核心人物，参与了导致FTX倒闭的犯罪行为，对他的投资者进行了数十亿美元的欺诈，利用客户资金购买房产，并挪用资金用于支持他的对冲基金Alameda Research的交易。

In court on 23 December, the United States Assistant Public Prosecutor Nicolas Roos stated that Sam Bankman-Fried was at the heart of the “historic fraud case” and was involved in the criminal acts that led to the collapse of FTX, committing billions of dollars in fraud against his investors, using client funds to purchase property and divert funds to support his hedge fund, Alameda Research.

在市场人士看来，曾经作为全球最大的加密数字货币交易平台的FTX，其核心创始人所面临的罪名是欺诈，可见这个市场的信任基础距离崩塌已经不远了，而未来这个市场将何去何从，DCG事件的走向成为关键。

In the eyes of marketers, the core founder of the FTX, once the world's largest crypto-digital trading platform, was accused of fraud, so that the market's trust base was not far from collapsing, and the future of the market was where the DCG event would follow.

责任编辑：徐芸茜 主编：公培佳

RESPONSIBILITY: Xu Jinxi, editor-in-chief: Picah.