21深度丨一枚比特币可买约15盎司黄金：比特币PK黄金，抗通胀“安全屋”系数哪个强

2021年就在转角，而2020年比特币的一波大涨趋势行情，这几天价格虽然略有波动，却依然延续。

The year 2021 was just around the corner, while a wave of surges in Bitcoin in 2020 continued over the past few days, albeit with slight fluctuations in prices.

上周末，投资者目睹了一波疯狂比特币行情，价格一度突破28000美元，整体市值超过5000亿美元。此后两个交易日比特币价格稍有回落，截至北京时间12月29日16点45分，每枚价格为26816.27美元。

Last weekend, investors witnessed a wave of crazy bitcoins, one over $28,000, with an overall market value of over $500 billion. The following two trading days saw a slight fall in bitcoins, at 16:45 Beijing time on 29 December, with a price of $26816.27 per unit.

在零利率甚至是低利率时代下，包括比特币在内的加密数字货币被临时充当“对冲通胀”的投资资产，正值高光时刻的比特币，其投资价格和趋势更加引起投资者广泛关注。黄金一直长期扮演着避险屋的角色，但投资者对比特币抗通胀的安全屋功能，预期明显增强。

In an era of zero or even low interest rates, encrypted digital currencies, including bitcoin, are temporarily used as investment assets for “spill-inflation” and their investment prices and trends are of greater interest to investors. Gold has long played a role as a safe haven, but the investor’s role as a safe house against inflation is expected to increase significantly.

比特币今年至此上涨270%

Bitcoin has risen by 270% this year.

比特币价格于12月27日内突破了28000美元，再创新高至28365美元的历史高点，市值突破5000亿美元，随后比特币有所下滑，目前于27000美元附近徘徊。这个价位比对于黄金，以国际黄金价格1880美元/盎司计，一枚比特币可以买下15.1盎司的黄金。

Bitcoin prices broke by $28,000 in December, re-innovated to a historic high of $28365, and the market value broke by $500 billion. Bitcoins subsequently fell and are now hovering around $27,000. This is a ratio of gold, which can buy 15.1 ounces of gold at an international gold price of $1880 per ounce.

上海金交所黄金现货月内价格走势图/数据来源：Wind

Price trends during the current month of gold in Shanghai: Wind

中国通信工业协会区块链专委会轮值主席、火币大学校长于佳宁在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，比特币的5000亿美元的流通市值虽然是历史新高，但并不是关口，也仅仅相当于Visa公司市值。这距离全球黄金10万亿美元总市值仍有较大距离，因此并非真正意义上的里程碑，比特币作为数字资产，已经高度金融化，因此大概率摆脱不了“周期性”金融规律，也就是“有涨必有跌、有跌必有涨”。

In an interview with Economic Reporters for the 21st Century, the Chairman-in-Office of the District Chain Committee of the China Telecommunications Industry Association and the Rector of the Keun University stated that the market value of the $500 billion in Bitcoin, while at an all-time high, was not an entry point, but a mere equivalent to the market value of Visa. It was still a long way from the total market value of the $10 trillion in global gold, so it was not a real milestone, and Bitcoin, as a digital asset, had become highly financialized, so it was likely that it would not escape from the “cyclical” financial rule, which was that “it must fall and fall”.

从今年10月起持续了三个月的上涨是比特币自2019年年中以来最长涨幅时间，且有望迎来一年多以来持续时间最长的月度上涨，上周末曾突破2.8万美元以上纪录，本次态势距离其突破20000美元的历史新高过去两周时间。今年至今，比特币上涨近270%。

The three-month rise that began in October of this year was the longest since mid-2019 and, hopefully, the longest monthly rise of more than a year. Last weekend, more than $28,000 was recorded, and this situation is two weeks from its historic high of $200. To date, Bitcoin has risen by almost 270%.

比特币一周与三个月价格走势图/图表来源：Coindesk

Bitcoin price trends for one week and three months/chart source: Coindisk

安全屋系数拆解

Safe House Factor Dismantling

新冠疫情下，各国央行的财政刺激规模空前，其中包括美国国会两院高票通过最新一轮规模达9000亿美元的刺激计划。在这种超宽松货币政策下，全球通胀预期抬头，市场对于抗通胀资产的需求大幅增加。

Under the new crown, central banks’ fiscal stimulus has been unprecedented, including high votes in both houses of the United States Congress through the latest round of stimulus packages, amounting to $900 billion. Under this hyperbolic monetary policy, global inflation is expected to rise, and market demand for anti-inflationary assets has increased significantly.

“在经济大幅波动时期，数字与加密货币往往会受到更多的关注”，于佳宁认为，比特币价格的上涨本质是全球数字化周期的红利。随着全球数字经济加速发展，区块链技术演进和创新应用也在加快。

“Digital and encrypted currencies tend to receive more attention in times of high economic volatility.” Janin argues that the price increases in bitcoin are in essence dividends of a global digital cycle. As the global digital economy accelerates, so is the evolution of block-chain technology and innovative applications.

“对区块链基础设施需求会直接带动对相应数字资产的需求，进而带动资产价格提升。而比特币是数字资产里面的“一般等价物”，由此对区块链平台和数字资产需求增加预期会先导性的反应到比特币的价格上。”于佳宁称。

“The demand for block chain infrastructure will directly drive the demand for the corresponding digital asset, which in turn will lead to an increase in asset prices. Bitcoin is the “general equivalent” of the digital asset, thus precipitatingly reacting to the expected increase in block chain platforms and digital asset demand to the price of Bitcoin.”

除此之外，比特币等区块链数字资产于今年逐渐获得主流投资机构广泛关注，并开始与主流金融体系加速结合。

In addition, digital assets in block chains, such as Bitcoin, have gradually gained the attention of mainstream investment agencies this year and have begun to accelerate integration with the mainstream financial system.

早在去年10月，贝宝控股公司(PayPal Holdings Inc.)表示，将允许客户使用加密货币。PayPal于今年11月再次声明允许客户在线购买，出售和持有比特币及其他加密货币，同时从2021年初开始，其客户能够使用加密货币在其网络上的2600万商户进行购物。在线拍卖市场eBay正在与以加密货币为中心的购物应用Lolli合作，为其1.27亿用户集成比特币奖励。新加坡星展银行DBS也于今年11月对机构投资者推出比特币等数字资产交易服务，借助由该银行支持的数字交易所DBS Digital Exchange，企业和投资者现在可以利用集成的解决方案生态系统来挖掘进入数字货币市场。

As early as last October, PayPal Holdings Inc. stated that customers would be allowed to use encrypted currency. PayPal again stated in November this year that customers would be allowed to buy, sell and hold on-line Bitcoin and other encrypted currency, while starting in early 2021 its customers could shop with an encrypted currency of 26 million businesses on its network. The online auction market eBay is working with the crypto-currency-centric shopping application of Lolli to create a Bitcoin reward for its 127 million users.

机构“囤币”背后

Behind the institution's money hoarding

在收获更多关注的同时，比特币的未来风险也正被热议。虽然2020年黄金表现略逊于比特币，但与高风险加密货币不同，中国区块链应用研究中心理事徐坤对21世纪经济报道记者表示，比特币这一轮上涨是海外机构投资者入场带动的。

While gaining more attention, the future risks of Bitcoin are being discussed. Unlike high-risk encrypted currencies, while gold outperformed bitcoin in 2020, Xu Quan, a board member of the China Block Chain Applied Research Center, told economic reporters in the 21st century that the rise in Bitcoin was driven by investors from overseas institutions.

“一方面，越来越多的海外投资机构将比特币纳入投资组合之中，比如管理规模超过200亿欧元的英国投资管理公司Ruffer，其Multi-Strategies基金持有的比特币资产约占总资产的2.5%。另一方面，一些上市公司也开始将比特币作为其资产储备的一部分，微观战略公司（Microstrategy）目前已经持有超过7万个比特币。"

“On the one hand, an increasing number of overseas investment agencies have included bitcoins in their portfolios, such as Ruffer, a British investment management company that manages more than €20 billion, whose Multi-Strategies fund holds approximately 2.5% of its total assets. On the other hand, some listed companies have also begun to include bitcoins as part of their asset reserves, and MicroStrategy now holds more than 70,000 bitcoins.”

在徐坤看来，比特币走向主流已经是必然的趋势。“在全球量化宽松的背景下，比特币的稀缺性、与传统资产的低相关性使其成为机构实现分散投资风险、增强投资收益的更好选择，并且逐渐替代黄金成为新的储备资产。目前比特币的市值还不到黄金的十分之一，伴随着更多以资产配置为目的的机构入场，比特币的价值还有很大的增长空间。”

“In the context of global quantitative easing, the scarcity of bitcoin, its low correlation with traditional assets make it a better option for institutions to diversify investment risks, enhance investment returns, and gradually replace gold as a new reserve asset. The market value of bitcoin is now less than one tenth of gold, and with more institutions for asset allocation there is much room for growth.”

但她同时也表示，比特币现在整体体量还是很小，要达到和黄金同等量级的规模，还需要有10倍的增长空间，伴随着大量以资产配置为目的的机构开始“囤币”，比特币实际上已经进入通缩状态。

At the same time, however, she indicated that Bitcoin as a whole was still very small and that a 10-fold growth space was needed to reach the same size as gold, with a large number of agencies aiming at asset allocation beginning to “move money”, and that Bitcoin was actually in a deflationary state.

20%至50%暴跌的后怕逻辑

20% to 50% of them are scared of logic.

Skybridge Capital的创始人认为，比特币大涨后目前存在暴跌风险，可能会突然暴跌20%至50%，因此投资者必须非常谨慎。

The founder of Skybridge Capital argued that investors had to be very cautious because of the current risk of a sharp drop in Bitcoin, which could suddenly drop by between 20 and 50 per cent.

一名比特币投资者告诉记者，他最近对比特币等加密货币关注减少。“这两个月涨得太疯狂了，我打算先收手观望一段时间。”

A Bitcoin investor told reporters that he had recently lost interest in encrypted currency, such as bitcoin. "These two months went crazy, and I was going to stop watching for a while."

值得注意的是，自2013年3月市值达到10亿美元以来，比特币历经两次飙升至历史高点、紧接着是逾80%的价值缩水的周期循环。2017年的比特币暴涨后的暴跌。

It is worth noting that since March 2013, when the market value reached $1 billion, Bitcoin has skyrocketed twice to historical heights, followed by a cycle of more than 80 per cent deflating values. Bitcoin fell sharply in 2017.

在2017年12月内创下19783美元最高记录后，比特币随后下跌29%, 跌幅一度高达38%。在触顶后的第31天, 比特币跌破10000美元, 较高点狂跌近50%。在接下来的两年内,其价格一直处于超低位。

After a record record of 19783 in December 2017, Bitcoin fell by 29 per cent, a drop of 38 per cent at a time. On the 31st day after it hit, Bitcoin fell by $10,000, a sharp drop of nearly 50 per cent at a higher point. In the next two years, prices remained at a very low level.

今年1月至10月初，比特币在7000-11000左右相对低位徘徊，十月开始，比特币从月初的10731美元涨至一路涨超28000美元。过去一周内，其变化幅度高达约5600美元。

Between January and early October of this year, Bitcoin hovered at a relatively low position of around 7,000-11000. Beginning in October, Bitcoin rose from $10731 at the beginning of the month to more than $28,000.

国盛证券区块链研究员宋嘉吉团队对21世纪经济报道记者表示，利率走低对比特币的助推可能有若干前提。

The team of Song Jiaji, a national equity block chain researcher, said to the 21st century economic reporter that interest rates might have a number of prerequisites for lower bitcoin.

“一是利率走低，意味着无风险资产收益率下降，风险资产吸引力上升；二是多起违约降低了固收类金融资产的吸引力，增加了权益资产的吸引力； 最后比特币被视为类权益资产。如果这些前提成立，比特币价格可能还有上涨空间。”宋嘉吉团队称，不过，如果比特币ETF迟迟未在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）获批；Coinbase等加密货币交易所上市遇阻及上市公司购买比特币遇阻等类似的事件发生，比特币价格承压。

“One is the low interest rate, which means that the rate of return on risk-free assets has declined and the attractiveness of risk-free assets has increased; the other is that multiple defaults have reduced the attractiveness of solid financial assets and increased the attractiveness of equity assets; and the last bitcoin is considered an equity asset. If these premises are established, the price of Bitcoin may still have the potential to increase.” According to the Song Kaji team, however, if the Bitcoin ETF is delayed by the approval of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and similar events such as the blockage of the market on an encrypted currency exchange such as Coinbase and the blockage of the purchase of bitcoin by listed companies, the price of Bitcoins has been under pressured.

监管风险浮现

Regulatory risk exposure

在于佳宁看来，很难精准预测比特币短期的具体走势。“需要理解价格它背后发展的周期、逻辑和本质，在长期时间内对于其趋势和影响保持关注，而不是关注短期的价格波动。数字资产背后的权益机制以及技术依托与传统的投资资产显著不同，在投资数字资产之前，一定要对区块链技术、分布式商业逻辑、数字金融体系进行全面、透彻的学习理解，这样才能清晰地认知相关数字资产的内在价值，从本质上控制投资的风险。”

In Janin's view, it is difficult to predict with precision the specific short-term trends of Bitcoin. “It is necessary to understand the cycle, logic and essence of the development behind the price, and to focus on its trends and implications over the long term rather than on short-term price volatility. The equity mechanisms and technology behind digital assets are significantly different from traditional investment assets. Before investing in digital assets, it is important to have a comprehensive and thorough learning understanding of block-chain technology, distributed business logic, digital financial systems, so that the inherent value of the related digital assets can be clearly understood and the risks of essentially controlling investment can be controlled.”

尚处于萌芽阶段的比特币等加密数字货币，监管、审查与身份定位也是其面临的一个不确定变量或潜在风险。

The regulation, review and identification of encrypted digital currencies, such as bitcoins, which are still in their infancy, is also an uncertain variable or potential risk to them.

12月29日，美国数字资产交易所Coinbase表示，将从美西时间14:30至1月19日上午10点全面暂停交易瑞波币（SRP）交易。瑞波币价格随后从0.28美元跌至0.23美元附近。

On 29 December, Coinbase, the United States digital asset exchange, indicated that there would be a complete suspension of trading in the Ribot (SRP) from 14.30 US Time to 10 a.m. on 19 January. The Ribot price subsequently fell from $0.28 to around $0.23.

徐坤表示，SEC一直在有计划的规范加密资产市场，其中非常重要的一点就是判定某种数字资产是否具备证券属性。而豪威测试（Howey Test）是目前判定某种加密资产是否应该作为一种证券而进行监管的有效手段。

Xu Gon states that SEC has been systematically regulating the market for encrypted assets, one of the most important of which is to determine whether a digital asset has security attributes. The Howe Test is currently an effective means of determining whether an encrypted asset should be regulated as a security.

“美国《证券法》规定，发行者寻求从首次公开发行中获益，包括接触散户投资者、广泛分销和二级交易市场，必须遵守联邦证券法的规定，除非适用豁免登记，否则必须对发行进行登记。” 于佳宁说。

“The United States Securities Act provides that issuers seeking to benefit from first public issuances, including access to bulk investors, extensive distribution and secondary trading markets, must comply with the provisions of the Federal Securities Act and must register issuances unless an exemption from registration applies.” In Janin.

从目前看，SEC还没有明显开始地对比特币或以太币进行严格管制，不过各国可能呼之欲出的收缩数字资产的举措需要予以重视。

For the time being, the SEC has not clearly begun to exercise strict control in the amount of bitcoin or in the amount of taut currency, although the likely condensation of digital assets by countries needs to be taken into account.

在比特币价格接近历史高点之际，拟议的监管规定将按照要求传统金融机构的相同标准来规范加密货币交易实体。

At a time when bitcoin prices are approaching historical highs, the proposed regulatory provisions will regulate entities trading encrypted currency in accordance with the same standards that require traditional financial institutions.

有媒体12月29号报道称，印度政府正在考虑一项提案，对比特币交易征收18％的商品和服务税（GST），预计每年征税约40亿卢比（5340万美元）。

According to a media report of 29 December, the Government of India is considering a proposal to levy an 18 per cent tax on goods and services (GST) for transactions in Bitcoin, which is expected to tax approximately Rs. 4 billion (US$ 53.4 million) annually.

（编辑：李伊琳）

(Edit: Lee Elin)