6万美元的比特币价格与上一个2017年牛市周期数据对比

分析人士表示，比特币鲸鱼钱包的积累和机构投资者持续的逢低买入，标志着比特币价格有很大的升值空间。

According to analysts, the accumulation of Bitcoin whale purses and continued low-buying by institutional investors mark a significant margin for appreciation of Bitcoin prices.

比特币(BTC公司)多头终于聚集了足够的力量，将排名第一的加密货币推过60000美元的关口，并引用关键的链上指标，分析师认为，牛市在达到任何相当大的阻力之前还有一段路要走。

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally gathered enough power to push the first-ranked encrypted currency over the $60,000 threshold, citing key chain indicators, and analysts believe that the cattle market still has a way to go before it reaches any considerable resistance.

自3月9日推高至5万美元上方以来，比特币价格的每一次下跌都被机构投资者迅速买入，过去几个月，比特币（BTC）的鲸鱼余额也在持续增长。

Every fall in Bitcoin prices has been purchased rapidly by institutional investors since it was pushed up to $50,000 on 9 March, and the whale balance of Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to grow over the past few months.

BTC/USDT 4小时图表

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

最近发布的一份报告强调了过去一周比特币价格走势的“两步走，一步后退”的本质，指出比特币价格上涨伴随着“5%的四个缺点”。

A recently published report highlighted the nature of the “two-step, one-step back” of the past week's price movement in bitcoin, pointing out that the price increase in bitcoin was accompanied by “four shortcomings of 5 per cent”.

比特币的价格走势是健康获利回吐的一个好信号，因为垂直价格“只有在打破历史高点时才是健康的”，也就是所谓的价格发现。

The price movement of Bitcoin is a good signal of a return to health gains, because vertical prices “are healthy only when they break historical heights”, the so-called price discovery.

为了更好地了解价格的走势，礼来指出，持有100至1000 BTC的钱包比2月28日多持有63000个BTC，这表明自下跌以来，这些鲸鱼钱包一直在累积，为价格上涨做准备。

In order to better understand price trends, it was noted that the wallets held from 100 to 1,000 BTCs held 63,000 BTCs more than on 28 February, indicating that they had been accumulated since the fall in preparation for price increases.

“这类钱包是2017年股市上涨的最佳时机。”

“This type of wallet is the best opportunity for the stock market to rise in 2017.”

强调的另一个看涨指标是自BTC价格突破2万美元以来的大量累积，此后一直没有放缓。

Another indicator highlighted was the substantial accumulation of BTC prices since the breakthrough of $20,000, which has not slowed since then.

“上一次我们看到如此激进的积累是在2017年8月。这个市场周期的顶峰又过了四个月才出现。”

“The last time we saw such a radical build-up was in August 2017. The peak of the market cycle took another four months.”

进一步解释说，虽然比特币价格在触及历史新高后偶尔出现下跌几乎是惯例，但它们并没有改变看涨的趋势。

It was further explained that while it was almost customary for bitcoin prices to fall occasionally after touching historical heights, they did not change the upward trend.

“因此，为了避免混淆我们试图用这些图表表达什么……比特币在这里有发挥作用的空间。如果它决定撕开，它就会离开。”

“So, in order to avoid confusion about what we're trying to say with these charts... bitcoin here has room for action. If it decides to tear it apart, it will leave.”

DeceTrader联合创始人菲利普·斯威夫特（Philip Swift）最近发布的一份报告呼应了礼来的乐观情绪，指出过去几个月比特币交易所出现资金外流。如下图所示，自2020年12月中旬以来，Coinbase和Bitstamp的外汇余额大幅下降。

A recent report issued by the co-founder of Decetrade, Philip Swift, echoes the ceremonial optimism that there has been an outflow of funds from the Bitcoin exchange in the past few months. As shown in the figure below, the foreign exchange balance of Coinbase and Bitstamp has declined significantly since mid-December 2020.

比特币在交易所的余额

Bitcoin balance on exchange

报告强调指出，可用比特币的减少是“人们和机构将比特币从交易所中取出，以存放在冷藏库中。”这反过来又减少了可供快速出售到市场的流动性供应，并减少了快速抛售的变化。

The report highlights that the decrease in the use of bitcoin is that “people and institutions take bitcoin out of the exchange to store it in a freezer.” This, in turn, reduces the liquidity available for rapid sale to the market and reduces changes in fast sales.

Swift确实注意到，大量的BTC正在从交换机中取出，并被封装到WBTC中，并被放入DeFi协议中。这在一定程度上减少了看涨的说法，因为代币并没有完全从流通中取出并放入冷藏库，这意味着流动性并没有真正减少。

Swift does notice that a large number of BTCs are being removed from the switch, sealed in the WBTC, and placed in the DeFi agreement. This has somewhat reduced the perception that the tokens are not fully removed from circulation and placed in the freezer, which means that liquidity has not really decreased.

Decentrader讨论的另一个有趣的信号是比特币持有一到两年与持有三年或三年以上的比特币之间的比较。

Another interesting signal discussed by Decentrader was the comparison between Bitcoin's holding for one to two years and the holding of bitcoin for three or more years.

最近几周，随着“短期”持有者开始获利，投资者持有的不到三年的BTC开始被出售。虽然这些水平在下降，但持有超过三年的比特币投资者最近实际上一直在积累资金，据Swift称，这表明在当前牛市周期中，“比特币仍有可能有更多的上涨空间”。

In recent weeks, less than three years of BTC held by investors have started to be sold as “short-term” holders begin to profit. While these levels are declining, Bitcoin investors who hold more than three years have recently actually accumulated funds, which, according to Swift, suggests that “bitcoin is still more likely to rise” in the current cattle cycle.

“看看这张图表，我们可以看到我们与上一个2017年周期相比的水平，当时这些水平线的行为方式类似……在我们看来，这一周期已接近一半。”

“Look at this chart, we can see our level compared to the previous 2017 cycle, when these horizontal lines behaved in a similar way... In our view, this cycle is almost halfway.”

对exolapha首席投资官大卫?利夫奇茨（David Lifchitz）而言，2月22日至3月11日期间比特币的价格走势似乎正在形成一种经典的杯柄式走势，根据技术分析，这是一种看涨的格局。Lifchitz解释说，3月11日经历的价格下跌代表了那些将从4.5万美元到5.7万美元的10%收益货币化的人的“杯顶”

In the case of David Lifchitz, chief investment officer of exolapaha, the price movement of Bitcoin between 22 February and 11 March seems to be forming a classic cup handle that, according to technical analysis, is an upward pattern. Lifchitz explained that the price decline experienced on March 11 represented the top of the cup for those who monetized 10% of their earnings from $45,000 to $570 million.

根据利夫奇茨的说法，一个不低于5.2万美元的温和回调和一个反弹将形成杯柄。杯口上方的突破（5.8万美元）将为比特币价格再上一个台阶打开大门。

According to Livcicz, a moderate echo of not less than $52,000 and a rebound will form the handle of the cup. The breakthrough over the cup (US$ 58,000) will open the door to another step in the price of Bitcoin.

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