比特币四年减半是什么意思？比特币每四年减半时间规则

2020年上个月比特币刚减半结束，其实比特币在2012年和2016年都经历了减产，这意味着比特币的通胀率下调了50%。所以呢，也正是因为这种通缩的货币政策，一些奥地利学派的经济学家将比特币看做是“硬通货”。而这种通缩政策呢，也就是我们常挂嘴边的“四年减半”之说。那么，比特币四年减半是什么意思？减半规则对于比特币价格有什么直接关系吗？下面我们一起来了解一下！

By the end of the first half of Bitcoin in the month of 2020, and by the fact that bitcoin had experienced a reduction in production in 2012 and 2016, that means that bitcoin inflation has been reduced by 50%. So, also, because of this deflationary monetary policy, some Austrian economists see bitcoin as “hard currency.” And this deflationary policy, which we often talk about, is “a four-year reduction.” So, what does the halving rule have a direct bearing on bitcoin?

其实完整说来，应该是——每过21万个区块时，所触发的比特币奖励减半一次。

In essence, it should be — for every 210,000 blocks, the bitcoin reward triggered is halved.

那么结合之前的学习我们知道，比特币是一种电子记账货币。而“记账”就是要把交易记录、时间、账本序号，以及上一个哈希值等信息计算打包的过程。所以比特币作为虚拟数字货币的开创者，大约每10分钟会“长”出一定数量的新币，直到总数达到2100万个为止。

So we know that bitcoin is an electronic currency of accounting. And “bookkeeping” is the process of packing transaction records, time, account number, and information such as the previous Hashi value. So Bitcoin, as the founder of virtual digital money, is likely to grow up to a certain amount of new currency every 10 minutes, until the total is 21 million.

那么每次“长”出来的数量是多少呢?中本聪在设计比特币产量协议时，遵循了以下两个规则：

So what's the amount of "long" coming out each time? In designing the Bitcoin Production Agreement, Nakaki followed the following two rules:

其一，就是最开始每10分钟生成50个比特币(也就是每次10分钟的间隔，是由算法来保证其稳定不变的);

The first is the initial generation of 50 bitcoins per 10 minutes (i.e., the interval of 10 minutes per time, which is guaranteed by algorithms to ensure its stability constant);

其二呢，就是每21万次后，比特币的单次产量减半，从50、25、12.5依此类推。直至总量达到2100万。

Second, every 210,000 times, bitcoins are reduced by half, from 50, 25, 12.5 to a total of 21 million.

所以根据以上规则，我们只需要列出一个简单的公式，就能得出每次减半，也就是每21万次的时候减半所需要的时间：21万/(365*24*6)

So, according to the above rule, all we need is a simple formula that allows us to figure out the amount of time needed to halve each time, i.e., every 210,000 times: 210,000/(365*24*6)

注意，因为每10分钟产出一次，所以每年的次数呢，是365天*24H*6(个10分钟)

Note, as output is produced every 10 minutes, the number of times per year is 365 days*24H*6 (10 minutes)

而这个公式的答案呢，正好是4(年)。所以“四年减半”之说，便是由此而来。

And the answer to this formula is exactly 4 years. So that's why we cut by half the four years.

比特币的总量一共有2100万枚，从创世区块开始，也就是2009年1月3日，中本聪自己在比特币系统上所创造的比特币账本的第一页开始，每获得一个区块的记账权，便会获得50个比特币的奖励(当然了，这其中肯定还有外加的一小部分手续费，但是今天再这里呢，我们姑且先不算)。

With a total of 21 million bitcoins, starting with the creation block, that is, on 3 January 2009, on the first page of the bitcoins account created by China’s own creation on the Bitcoin system, each block is given the right to account for 50 bitcoins (which, of course, must have a small extra charge, but here we go again.

所以这种情况下呢，问题就来了。

So in this case, the problem arises.

如果每获得一次交易的记账权，就能获得50个比特币，而没有任何其他机制的话，那么随着用比特币交易的人越来越多，账目肯定也会越来越多。

If the rights to account for each transaction were obtained, 50 bitcoins would have been obtained without any other mechanism, then the accounts would certainly have grown as more and more people traded in bitcoins.

所以如果，要是一直无休止地50个50个币的，这样往外奖励的话，那你想的倒还是挺美的

So, if you've been doing 50 and 50 at a time like this, you'd still think it's pretty.

无休止地50个50个币的往外奖励，这种情况下，比特币的产量是铁定会严重超发的。而我们从一开始就知道，比特币的诞生正是为了彻底杜绝超发，避免出现法币通货膨胀的情况，才会把总量稳稳地设定在2100万枚。

In this case, the production of bitcoin is bound to be seriously excessive. And we knew from the outset that bitcoin was born in order to completely eliminate excesses and avoid French-currency inflation, so that the total could be set at 21 million.

一个也不多，一个也不少。这样才可以保证每个人手中的比特币呢，永远不会缩水。所以最后怎样呢?

Not many, not many. That's how everyone can be assured of the bitcoin that never shrinks. So what?

你既要给愿意开采比特币的节点给奖励，又要保证比特币的总量不变，该怎么办好呢?

What do you do to reward the nodes that are willing to exploit bitcoin and to ensure that the amount of bitcoin remains unchanged?

由此四年减半的方案便横空出世了。

As a result, a four-year programme to halve was lost.

我们可以试着想象一下这种情况：如果在短时间内不加限制地产出了大量比特币，那么自然的，比特币日后，必然也会因为流通量过多而变得毫无价值。

We can try to imagine a situation in which, if large amounts of bitcoins are produced in a short period of time without restriction, naturally, bitcoins will also become worthless in the future because of excessive circulation.

物以稀为贵，所以必然会以盛而衰。这个道理大家都懂。V神在评论比特币产量机制的文章中曾经也这样表述过：

It's rare, so it's bound to rot. Everyone knows that. As God V once said in an article commenting on the Bitcoin production mechanism:

他说，比特币之所以如此设计，正是为了控制通货膨胀你也可以将这一规则和黄金进行对比。黄金在地球上总量固定，而且现在的开采难度越来越大。也正因为这些原因，黄金能流通于世数千年，至今仍然价值稳定，成为国际认可的价值交换媒介。

He said that Bitcoin was so designed to control inflation that you can compare the rules with gold. Gold is fixed on the planet, and mining is becoming more difficult. And that is why gold, which has been circulating for thousands of years, remains a stable value-trading medium that is internationally recognized.

所以比特币要想像黄金一样，永远价值在线，那么就必须控制其数量的稳定。数量稳定了，价格的涨跌趋势必然也会紧随其后。

So, in order for Bitcoin to be as valuable as gold as ever, then it has to be controlled to stabilize its quantity. The volume is stable, and price increases and falls are bound to follow.

我们来回顾一下历史上，两次减半时的情况。

Let us look back at the two halves in history.

我们先来看看图一，这是2012年比特币产量的第一次减半。由原来的每次50个比特币减为了25个比特币。

Let's start with figure I, which is the first time in 2012 that bitcoin production was halved. From the original 50 bitcoins to 25 bitcoins.

我们在图中可以看出，减半时间点的一周前后，价格波动上呢，基本是不怎么明显的。

As we can see in the figure, price fluctuations around a week before or after the halving point are largely invisible.

下面我们再来看看图二。也就是2016年7月，上一次减半的时间。

Let us look at figure II. That is, in July 2016, the last time to halve.

在这一次减半中呢，比特币由每次25个比特币减为12.5个比特币。我们从图中可以看出，减半一周前比特币价格是650美元，一周后价格是675美元，价格波动上好像，依然不是特别大。是吧?

In this case, bitcoin is reduced from 25 bitcoins to 12.5 bitcoins. As we can see from the graph, the price of bitcoins is $650 a week before halving, $675 a week later, and prices are still not very volatile. Right?

所以呢，截至目前，我们其实并不能断言，比特币减半和价格走势间会存在某种必然的联系。

So, to date, we cannot really assert that there is a certain link between the halving of bitcoin and price trends.

上一轮的牛市是发生在比特币产量减半的时候，因此呢，有人预测下一轮牛市，或许也将发生在比特币产量减半的时候，也就是2020年5月份。

The last round of cattle was at a time when the production of bitcoin was reduced by half, so the next round of cattle is projected, and perhaps also at a time when the production of bitcoin was reduced by half, that is, in May 2020.

然而事实上，比特币的价格影响因素其实有很多。比如市场情绪、共识程度、当下的币价高度等等。而产量呢，最多只能算是其中的一个影响因素。

In reality, however, there are many factors affecting the price of Bitcoins. Market sentiment, degree of consensus, high current currency prices, and so on. And output, at best, can be a factor.

比特币四年减半之说呢，毕竟只是它产量规则设计的计算结果。随着未来比特币产量的不断减低，产量本身对于币价的影响必然会越来越小。因此呢，并不见得每逢减半就会有大牛，如今，距离下一次比特币减产还有9个月，聪明的人呢，早已经开始布局了。而这次减产的效应呢或许也会在2019年中就开始凸显。此刻的你，是否已经做好准备了呢?

Bitcoins cut by half in four years, after all, is the result of a rule-of-production calculation. As future bitcoin yields continue to decline, the impact of production itself on currency prices is bound to diminish. So, not every time there is a bull in half, now, nine months before the next bitcoins are cut.