全球虚拟币价格暴跌的“警世通言”

□江苏经济报记者 王峻峰

□ Jiangsu Economics Reporter Wang Cheng Feng

今年年初以来，以比特币为代表的虚拟货币价格持续暴跌，全球数字资产市场进入了最新一轮的“至暗时刻”。无数国家、地区和投资机构的巨额财富骤然消失，无数人的财产瞬间清零甚至成为负数。这甚至已波及国际资本市场，开始无情冲击众多“创新投资者”们的数字化信念。

Since the beginning of this year, virtual currency prices, represented by bitcoin, have continued to plummet, and the global digital asset market has entered its latest round of “Dark Time.” The vast wealth of numerous countries, regions, and investment agencies has suddenly disappeared, and millions of people’s property has become flat and even negative. This has even reached international capital markets, beginning to relentlessly shock the digital beliefs of many “innovators.”

截至6月21日，比特币报收20432美元/个，继前一天之后，暂时收复2万美元关口。6月19日，其价格曾下探最低点17601美元，创近两年来最低纪录。比特币一度连续12天走低，创下了2009年诞生以来的最长连跌纪录。市值排名第二的虚拟货币以太币也在6月18日跌破1000美元，触及2021年1月以来最低位。如今，两大全球龙头虚拟币市场的价格都已从去年11月初的历史高位跌去了约70%。以当前比特币价格计算，全球虚拟币总市值已跌破万亿美元。

As at 21 June, Bitcoin had received $20432 per month, and after the previous day, it had recovered $20,000. On 19 June, its price had been at a low of $17601, the lowest in nearly two years. Bitcoin had fallen 12 days in a row, the longest recorded drop since its birth in 2009. The second-largest virtual currency also fell by $1,000 on 18 June, reaching its lowest position since January 2021.

多数专家认为，比特币目前的反弹为暴跌之后的修复性反弹，但并不意味着市场趋势发生了逆转，如果美联储及世界各国政府采取更严格的加息手段抑制通胀，比特币及所有虚拟币的价格还将进一步下跌。

According to most experts, the current rebound of Bitcoin is a repair rebound after a collapse, but it does not mean that market trends have been reversed and that the prices of Bitcoin and all virtual currencies will fall further if the Federal Reserve and Governments around the world adopt stricter interest hikes to curb inflation.

目前比特币仍处于新一轮爆仓的旋涡之中。未来，美联储很可能继续单次加息75个基点，华尔街投资者仍在不计成本地抛售各类风险资产，包括比特币。截至6月19日8时，数字货币领域共有15万人在过去24小时内被爆仓，爆仓总金额高达5.67亿美元。因爆仓而出现的外围市场损失，最高峰时超过600亿元人民币。最近一周，海外多家虚拟币借贷平台及交易平台宣布暂停比特币提现，加剧了市场恐慌，大量投资者纷纷抛售，“踩踏效应”显现。

In the future, the Fed is likely to continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, and Wall Street investors are still selling risk-based assets, including Bitcoin, at no cost. At 0800 hours on 19 June, 150,000 people in the digital currency area had been blown up in the last 24 hours, amounting to $567 million.

当前比特币的价格甚至已导致部分挖矿机开机就将面临赔钱。包括神马M21、阿瓦隆1066 Pro在内的大部分矿机已达到关机价，即币值低于挖矿的成本价，蚂蚁T17等矿机接近关机价。

The current price of Bitcoin has even led to a loss for some of the diggers. Most miners, including M21, Avalon, 1066 Pro, have reached the cut-off price, i.e., the value of the currency is lower than the cost of the dig, and miners such as ant T17 are close to the cut-off price.

投资者对风险资产信心骤降

The investor's confidence in venture assets has declined sharply.

虚拟币此轮暴跌原因何在？业内人士普遍认为，其导火索是美联储大幅加息75个基点，强力刺激全球资本回流，令大量投资者抛售高风险资产。但是，因新冠肺炎疫情持续、俄乌战争不息及全球贸易摩擦加剧，全球经济震荡下行，为稳定经济，各国大力抑制通货膨胀，加密数字货币等数字资产的牟利空间不再，巨大风险却凸显，投机资本纷纷加速远离这一市场。

What is the reason for the collapse of the virtual currency round? Industry is generally of the opinion that the spark is a 75-point mark of a massive increase in the Fed’s interest rate, which strongly stimulates the return of global capital, forcing large numbers of investors to sell high-risk assets.

虚拟币是加密数字货币的最知名代表。何谓“加密数字货币”？据业内权威解释，这可以认为是一种基于节点网络和数字加密算法的虚拟货币，通常由开发者发行和管理，被特定虚拟社区的成员所接受和使用。近期加密数字资产领域出现的一系列风险事件，更令比特币遭遇巨大的流动性危机。相比2008年全球央行斥资万亿美元救助因雷曼兄弟倒闭而爆发的次贷危机，此次加密数字资产的流动性危机则没人施以援手。前不久，比特币价格击穿了投资者的心理防线——2万美元，很大程度上打破了虚拟币市场一度极其自信的“赌徒心态”。

Virtual currency is the most well-known representative of encrypted digital money. What is an “encrypted digital currency”? According to industry authority, this can be interpreted as a virtual currency based on nodal networks and digital encryption algorithms, usually issued and managed by developers and accepted and used by members of a particular virtual community.

在业内人士看来，比特币价格跌破2万美元只是时间问题。不被包括中国在内的世界多国政府认可的虚拟币市场，始终是一个“黑市”，欲与黄金、石油等并列，作为避险资产凸显价值，还很遥远。更何况在美元加息周期之下，美国政府正努力吸引全球范围内的美元资产回流，以遏制高通胀，虚拟币的炒作增值空间已被极大压缩。近年来，全球加密数字资产监管趋严，比特币依然能受到众多投资者的热捧，一个重要原因是很多人依然相信加密数字资产将持续高速发展。倘若此次虚拟币危机最终导致这一信念显著“退潮”，全球加密数字资产的辉煌大厦无疑将成沙上之塔。

The virtual currency market, which is not recognized by many governments around the world, including China, has always been a “black market,” highlighting value as a hedge asset and far away. Moreover, under the dollar-plus cycle, the US government is trying to attract dollar assets around the world to contain high inflation, and the virtual currency’s room for value-added has been drastically reduced.

波及现实经济的可能性不大

There's not much chance of affecting the real economy.

此轮虚拟货币价格暴跌，对于国内投资业的影响何在？

What is the impact of the fall in virtual currency prices in this round on domestic investment?

近年来，由于数字技术与各行业不断融合，我国数字经济强劲增长。据中商产业研究院预测，2022年我国数字经济增加值规模将达48.9万亿元。专家指出，数字经济规模的扩大必将带动数字货币市场的发展。但对于极高风险的数字资产投资交易，我国政府向来管理审慎严格，境内线上及线下的虚拟币交易早已被禁止。截至去年4月，经过清理整顿，中国境内虚拟货币交易的全球份额已从最初的逾90%下降至不足5%。

In recent years, our digital economy has grown robustly as a result of the ongoing convergence of digital technology and industries. The Chinese Institute of Business and Industry predicted that our digital economy would add up to 48.9 trillion yuan in 2022.

然而，国内金融部门监测干预境内外流的虚拟币投资，仍存在较大挑战。去年上半年，以虚拟货币形式从中国内地和香港的四家交易所流出至国外交易所、未受监管出境的资金达283亿美元，是2020年全年流出总量的1.6 倍。去年9月，中国人民银行联合多部门下发《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币交易炒作风险的通知》，进一步严厉打击虚拟货币交易炒作。即使如此，目前国内虚拟币的“地下跨境交易”依然未绝。

In the first half of last year, an unsupervised outflow of $28.3 billion from four exchanges in mainland China and Hong Kong to foreign exchanges took place, up from 1.6 times the total in 2020. In September last year, the People’s Bank of China issued a multi-sectoral circular on further prevention and management of the risks associated with virtual currency transactions, further stifling virtual currency transactions.

江苏省社会科学院财贸所研究员、江苏省金融研究院副院长骆祖春指出，中国金融监管当局不承认以比特币为代表的虚拟货币在中国境内交易、投资的合法性。从比特币2010年4月在中国大陆公开交易，到2017年9月底中国金融监管当局关停境内比特币交易所，一路高歌猛进的比特币及其他加密数字货币交易，在中国被按下了终止键。对国内正规的金融机构、投资业来说，加密数字货币价格暴跌不会造成影响。但对投资这一资产的个人投资者来说，无疑会造成个人资产的巨大损失。

The Chinese financial regulatory authorities do not recognize the legitimacy of transactions and investments in China, represented by Bitcoin, as a virtual currency. From Bitcoin, which was publicly traded in mainland China in April 2010, the Chinese financial regulatory authority closed the Bitcoin exchange in China by the end of September 2017.

江苏省理财师协会秘书长、拾榴询财创始人南小鹏认为，过去几年虚拟货币的暴涨和全球货币的宽松环境有极大的相关性。随着美联储加息缩表，美国十年国债收益率不断提升，当流动性盛宴曲终人散之时，本身并没创造价值、只依赖于流动性交易的数字货币必然崩盘。包括今年以来被追捧的“数字藏品”（NTF），最近大量品种也出现价格快速下跌。

The Secretary-General of Jiangsu’s Association of Financialists and founder of the Gazprom Association, Nam Xiao Peng, argued that the surge in virtual currency over the past few years and the easing of global currency were highly relevant. With the US Federal Reserve’s contraction of interest, America’s ten-year national debt rate has been rising, and the digital currency, which did not generate value by itself at the end of the liquidity feast, depends solely on liquidity transactions, is bound to collapse.

业内资深人士坦言，以比特币为代表的虚拟币市场暴跌并不会对全球经济造成冲击。一方面，加密资产市场总市值不足万亿美元，体量相对较小。另一方面，加密资产市场和传统金融市场联系较弱，其波动蔓延至现实经济的可能性不大。另有专家表示，今年以来的市场表现再次证实，比特币向来都不是“数字黄金”，一直以来都存在高风险。

Senior industry figures argue that the collapse of the virtual currency market, represented by Bitcoin, will not have an impact on the global economy. On the one hand, the total market value of encrypted assets is less than trillion dollars and is relatively small.

“另类投资”的风险仍需警惕

“Alternative investment” risks are still subject to vigilance

我国虽已禁止虚拟币交易，但“市场”并未完全消失。从此轮虚拟币的全球“大逃杀”中，江苏投资业界能够得到什么样的警示？

Although our country has banned virtual currency transactions, the “market” has not disappeared completely. What kind of warning can Jiangsu’s investment industry get from this round of virtual currency’s global “run-off”?

骆祖春分析道，由于虚拟货币缺乏明确的价值基础，难以发挥价值尺度和流通手段的职能，最终只能沦为投资甚至投机的工具，暴涨暴跌成为该市场一个重要特征。其原因在于虚拟币缺乏现实世界的有形效用，从而使得试探和判断其市场波动底部极其困难。很多虚拟币投资者其实是将它作为对冲通货膨胀、股市风险的工具。市场人士普遍认为，比特币崩盘是市场避险情绪加剧的又一个迹象。在美国乃至全球利率上升和经济衰退担忧的背景下，投资者纷纷转向了更安全的投资渠道。

As a result of the lack of a clear value base for the virtual currency, it is difficult to function as a measure of value and a means of circulation, and ultimately as an instrument of investment or even speculation, a sharp upswing has become an important feature of the market. The reason is that the virtual currency lacks the physical utility of the real world, making it extremely difficult to test and judge the bottom of its market volatility.

他认为，对江苏投资者来说，虚拟货币投资风险远远大于股票、资金、债券等传统投资品，当前应远离。对金融监管部门而言，须贯彻金融风险早防范、早化解理念，及早保护投资者合法权益。

He argued that, for Jiangsu investors, the risk of virtual currency investment is far greater than traditional investments such as equities, funds, bonds, and so on, and should now be far away. For financial regulators, the concept of early financial risk prevention, early resolution, and early protection of investors’ legitimate rights and interests need to be applied.

南小鹏直言，海外部分投资机构将数字货币作为“另类投资”配置给客户，这种投机行为本身是否符合金融审慎原则，值得反思。我国立法禁止虚拟货币交易，是出于对投资者的保护，但的确无法彻底阻止投资者在海外市场进行虚拟货币交易。更多还是应该在国内金融监管范围加强投资者教育，推出更多优质的合法投资产品，拓展更多合法的新投资渠道。

To put it bluntly, it is worth reflecting on whether the speculation itself, which some overseas investment agencies allocate to their customers as “an alternative type of investment,” is in keeping with the principles of financial prudence. Our legislation prohibits virtual currency transactions in order to protect investors, but it does not prevent them completely from doing so in overseas markets.