受现货ETF利好影响，比特币价格再冲3.8万美元！能否重回两年前的高点？

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 赵奕 胡金华 上海报道

Reporter of the Summer Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn)

11月10日凌晨，加密货币市场再次开启狂欢，BTC一度逼近38000美元，涨幅近8%。随后ETH也不断走高，突破2100美元。但比特币价格随后便出现回落，截至发稿，比特币最新价格为36670.8美元，24小时内下跌0.08%；以太坊价格则相对稳定，最新价格为2110.66美元，24小时内下跌0.48%。

In the early hours of November 10, the crypto-currency market re-opened, with BTC at a time close to $38,000, or nearly 8 per cent. The ETH also continued to rise, breaking by $2,100. But then the bitcoin price fell, with its latest price of $36,670.8 falling by 0.08 per cent in 24 hours as of the date of its release; and it was relatively stable at the latest price of $2110.66, or 0.48 per cent in 24 hours.

记者注意到，本次比特币等加密货币的上涨依旧由比特币、以太坊现货ETF消息带动。

Journalists noted that the current increase in encrypted currency, such as bitcoin, was still driven by Bitcoin, a live ETF feed from Taiku.

对此，中国民协Web3.0专委联合发起人、常务副会长吴高斌向《华夏时报》记者表示，本轮比特币价格上涨的主要推手是现货ETF的利好消息。现货ETF的推出将有助于提高加密货币市场的流动性和透明度，吸引更多机构投资者入场。因此，在短期内，现货ETF的利好影响仍将推动加密货币市场继续上涨。然而，从中长期来看，市场将回归基本面，投资者需要关注行业发展和政策风险，以判断现货ETF的利好影响能够持续多久。

In response, the co-sponsor and permanent vice-president of the China National Association’s Web 3.0 Commission, Wu Goobin, told the Washington Times that the main push for the price increase in this round of bitcoin was the positive news of the spot ETF. The launch of the spot ETF would help to increase the liquidity and transparency of the encrypted currency market and attract more institutional investors.

以太坊现货ETF或先行一步

with the Taiku spot ETF or a first step

据彭博分析师Eric Balchunas透露，相关数据显示，贝莱德iShares以太坊信托在特拉华州成功注册，贝莱德的iShares Bitcoin Trust在向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交ETF申请前7天以类似方式注册。Eric认为，贝莱德已向申请以太坊现货ETF迈出了第一步。

According to the Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the data show that Beledi Shares was successfully registered in Delaware with the Telecentre Trust, and iShares Bitcoin Trust of Beled was registered in a similar way seven days before the ETF application was submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Eric argues that Belede has taken the first step in applying for ETF in Tailet.

记者了解到，除贝莱德外，VanEck、Invesco、21Shares等公司也已经申请了现货以太坊ETF。

The journalists learned that, in addition to Belet, Van Eck, Invesco and 21Shares had applied for ETF for the spot.

此前，彭博分析师James Seyffart曾发文称，从11月9日开始， SEC将开启一个短暂的窗口期，可能会批准所有12只现货比特币ETF，其中也包括灰度的GBTC，这个窗口期将开放至少八天，直至11月17日结束。

Previously, the Bloomberg analyst, James Seyffart, had advised that, starting on 9 November, SEC would open a short window period that might authorize all 12 spot bitcoin ETFs, which would also include the greyscale GBTC, which would be open for at least eight days until the end of 17 November.

同日，据Coindesk发表的文章，一位知情人士透露，SEC已与灰度就该公司申请将其信托产品GBTC转换为现货比特币ETF的细节展开谈判，这可能会对加密行业产生重大影响。 该知情人士表示，自从赢得法庭诉讼以来，灰度一直与SEC的交易市场部门以及Corporation Finance部门保持联系，这两个部门都将在制定和批准该公司的ETF申请方面发挥作用。

On the same day, according to an article published by Coindisk, an informed source revealed that SEC had negotiated details of the company’s application to convert its trust product, GBTC, into an off-the-shelf Bitcoin ETF, which could have a significant impact on the encryption industry, stating that since winning the court proceedings, Gray had been in contact with the trading market department of the SEC and the Corporation Finance department, both of which would play a role in developing and approving the company’s ETF application.

针对此消息，灰度首席法务官Craig Salm表示：“目前我们只是专注于与交易市场部门进行建设性的重新接触，仍有一些事情需要解决。”Salm还指出，其他申请者（贝莱德和富达等）似乎在SEC与他们自己的注册谈判中取得了进展。

In response to this information, Craig Salm, Chief Legal Officer of Greyscale, said: “We are now only focusing on a constructive re-engagement with the trading market sector, and there are still things to be resolved.” Salm also pointed out that other applicants (Bélet and Fuda, etc.) seem to have made progress in negotiations between SEC and their own registration.

受相关消息影响，加密货币价格自11月9日晚间开启了上涨模式。据CoinGecko数据显示，加密总市值升至1.45万亿美元，24小时涨幅达3.6%，创年内新高。过去24小时加密市场总交易量约为1401.717亿美元，其中，BTC市场占有率为49.4%，ETH市场占有率为17.5%。

According to CoinGecko, the total market value of encryption rose to $1.45 trillion, a 24-hour increase of 3.6%, up from about $14,171.7 million in the past 24 hours, of which BTC had a market share of 49.4% and ETH a market share of 17.5%.

据香港交易所数据显示，随着ETH价格升至2100美元上方，南方东英以太币期货ETF股价开盘后快速上涨并突破12港元，截至发稿时达到12.67港元，日内涨幅达11.24%，当前资产管理规模触及900万美元。南方东英以太币期货ETF是CSOP ETF系列的一个子基金，与传统交易所买卖基金不同，投资目标是通过主要投资于芝加哥商品交易所的以太币期货。

According to data from the Hong Kong Exchange, with the ETH price rising above $2,100, the EDF share opening in the East of the South has risen rapidly and has broken through HK$12.67 at the time of submission, up 11.24 per cent over the day, and the current size of asset management has reached US$ 9 million. The ETF is a sub-fund in the CSOP ETF series, unlike the traditional exchange trading fund, with the investment target being to invest mainly in the currency of the Chicago Commodity Exchange.

“ETF预期是一个不断增长的最大催化剂，这使得当前的上涨有了更多的动力”，交易和投资公司eToro市场分析师Josh Gilbert表示。他认为，除了ETF的触发因素外，对美联储目前已经停止加息以及明年即将到来的比特币减半事件也推动了这次上涨。

“ETF is expected to be one of the biggest catalysts of growing growth, which has given more impetus to the current rise,” said Josh Gilbert, a market analyst for the trading and investment company eToro. In his view, in addition to the trigger for the ETF, the current interest hike on the Fed and the upcoming halving of bitcoin next year have also contributed to this increase.

摩根大通则对最近加密货币市场飙升的可持续性表示怀疑，摩根大通分析师Nikolaos表示，加密货币的涨势“看起来过度了”。他表示，但未来加密货币监管是否会放松仍不确定。

Morgan Chase expressed doubts about the sustainability of the recent surge in the crypto-currency market, with Morgan Chase analyst Nikolaos saying that the trend in crypto-currency “seems to be excessive.” He said, however, that there was still uncertainty as to whether crypto-currency regulation would be relaxed in the future.

“鉴于加密货币行业不受监管的程度，目前还不清楚该行业的监管收紧是否会大幅减弱。”“美国加密货币行业法规仍悬而未决，我们不相信美国立法者会因为上述两起法律案件而改变立场，尤其是在FTX欺诈事件的记忆犹新的情况下。”Nikolaos说。

“In view of the extent to which the cryptographic money industry is not regulated, it is not clear whether the tightening of regulation in the industry will be significantly weakened.” “The code for the cryptographic money industry in the United States is still pending, and we are not convinced that American legislators will change their position as a result of the two above-mentioned legal cases, especially when the memory of the FTX fraud is still fresh.” Nikolaos says.

对此，中国金融智库特邀研究员余丰慧向《华夏时报》记者表示，加密货币市场本轮上涨可能受到现货ETF的利好消息刺激，但具体持续多久还难以确定。如果美国证券交易委员会批准了这些现货比特币ETF申请，可能会吸引更多传统投资者进入加密货币市场，进一步推动市场上涨。然而，市场上涨也受到多种因素的影响，包括市场情绪、全球经济状况和政策变化等。

In response, China’s financial think tank invited researcher Yu Fung Fu-hyun said to the Washington Times journalists that the current boom in the crypto-currency market could be stimulated by good news about the spot ETF, but that it would be difficult to determine how long it would last. If the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved these spot bitcoin ETF applications, it could attract more traditional investors into the encrypted currency market and push the market up further.

需时刻警惕风险

/strong

近期，有关比特币现货ETF的消息不断刺激着加密市场的神经。与现货ETF的悬而未决相比，加密货币期货ETF正在平稳推进。

In the recent past, news about the spot ETF in Bitcoin has been fuelling the nerves of the encryption market. As opposed to the outstanding issue of the spot ETF, the encoded currency futures ETF is advancing steadily.

10月9日，21Shares和ARK Invest宣布将推出新的数字资产ETF套件，共计五款ETF产品。这些ETF利用链上信号和两家公司的加密原生经验，旨在通过对比特币和以太坊期货合约的战略投资以及区块链技术的应用来实现长期资本增值。根据招股说明书，这些ETF将在芝加哥期权交易所（Cboe）上市，将于下周开始交易。

On October 9, 21Shares and ARK Invest announced the launch of a new digital asset ETF package, consisting of five ETF products. These ETFs use signals from the chain and the encryption experience of the two companies to achieve long-term capital value addition through strategic investment in Bitcoin and Ether futures contracts, as well as the application of block chain technology. According to the equity statement, the ETFs will be marketed at the Chicago Stock Exchange (Cboe) and will start trading next week.

此外，根据官方消息，VanEck以太坊策略 ETF现已上市芝加哥期权交易所，交易代码EFUT，总费用率0.66%。据介绍，VanEck以太坊策略ETF (EFUT) 通过投资以太坊期货合约来寻求资本增值。该基金采用积极管理，并通过易于使用的交易所交易工具提供与以太坊相关的投资，该基金不直接投资以太坊或其他数字资产。

In addition, according to official sources, VanEck's ETF is now listed on the Chicago Stock Exchange, trading code EFTUT, with a total cost of 0.66%. Van Eck's ETF (EFUT) is described as seeking capital value added by investing in Taipa futures contracts. The Fund is actively managed and provides Ether-related investments through easy-to-use exchange instruments, and it does not invest directly in Taiya or other digital assets.

FTX相关案件刚刚告一段落，但市场似乎并没有更加谨慎。在过去的一段时间内，关于现货ETF的任何消息都能带动币价的波动。“比特币要想重返2021年，价格接近69000美元的历史高点，如今征途才只进行到一半而已，现在乐观还是早了些。”一位资深加密货币投资者向《华夏时报》记者表示。

For some time now, any news about the spot ETF has contributed to currency price fluctuations. “In order for Bitcoins to return to 2021 at a historic high price of nearly $69,000, the journey is now only halfway through, and it is still a bit early for optimism.”

“尽管ETF的消息让投资者对加密货币市场表现狂热。但加密货币投资仍具有较高风险，投资者在参与其中时需保持谨慎。”在吴高斌看来，在参与加密货币投资时，投资者应充分了解市场动态，评估自身风险承受能力，以实现资产的稳健增长。

“Although the ETF’s message has led investors to be fanatical about the market for encrypted money, there are still high risks associated with investment in encrypted money, and investors need to be cautious in their participation.” In Wu Goobin’s view, investors should be fully aware of market dynamics and assess their own risk tolerance in order to achieve robust asset growth.

对此，余丰慧也强调，加密货币投资具有很高的风险，包括市场波动性、操纵风险、监管风险和安全风险等。投资者需要明确认识到这些风险，并做好充分的调查和风险管理。同时，设定合理的投资目标和风险承受能力，并根据个人情况制定投资策略，保护好个人信息和资金安全，使用安全可靠的交易平台和钱包。

Investors need to recognize these risks clearly and conduct adequate investigation and risk management. At the same time, they need to set reasonable investment targets and risk tolerance, develop investment strategies based on personal circumstances, protect personal information and financial security, and use safe and reliable trading platforms and wallets.

责任编辑：徐芸茜 主编：公培佳

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