CPI砸盘，巨鲸抄底，BTC收复6.9万美元失地
The CPI hit the plate, the giant whale took the bottom, and the BTC recovered $69,000 in land loss.
原文作者：Mary Liu
Original author: Mary Liu
原文来源：Bitpush
Source: Bitpush
高于预期的美国消费者价格指数 (CPI) 令加密市场承压，周三早盘交易中，比特币在6.9万美元的支撑位附近交易，但在CPI发布后一度跌至67,475美元的低点，随后BTC收复6.9万美元失地，截至发稿时回到69,861.99美元，24小时涨幅1.03%。
The higher-than-expected United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) put pressure on the crypto market, with Bitcoin trading near the $690 million support slot on Wednesdays, but fell to a low point of $67,475 after the release of the CPI, and then BTC recovered $690 million of lost ground, returning to $69,861.99 at the time of the release, with an increase of 1.03 per cent on a 24-hour basis.
山寨币市场涨跌互现。Memecoin (MEME) 以 15.7% 的涨幅领跑，其次是 Ethena (ENA) ，涨幅为 14.4%。
Memecoin (MEME) ran by 15.7%, followed by Ethena (ENA) by 14.4%.
在美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 向 Uniswap Labs 发出 Wells 通知后，Uniswap (UNI) 跌幅最大，达 10%。其他跌幅较大的代币包括：Theta Fuel (TFUEL) 下跌 9%，Axelar (AXL) 下跌 8.5%。
After the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Wells notification to Uniswap Labs, Uniswap (UNI) experienced the largest drop of 10 per cent. Other large declines include: Theta Fuel (TFUEL) fell by 9 per cent, and Axelar (AXL) fell by 8.5 per cent.
数据显示，3 月份 CPI 上涨 0.4%，预期为 0.3%；同比上涨 3.5%，预期为 3.4%，这意味着美国通胀并没有得到很好的控制，尽管其他指标显示经济表现好于预期，仍然打击了投资者对美联储在今年夏天某个时候降息的预期。
The data show that the CPI rose by 0.4 per cent in March, and is expected to be 0.3 per cent; the 3.5 per cent increase in the same year, which is expected to be 3.4 per cent, means that inflation in the United States is not well controlled, although other indicators suggest that the economy is performing better than expected, it still undermines investors’ expectations that the Fed will fall at some point this summer.
美国10年期国债收益率创11月以来最高水平，攀升近20个基点。与此同时，美元指数（DXY）飙升1%至105上方，触及2023年11月以来的高位。
The US’s 10-year rate of return on public debt has reached its highest level since November, rising to nearly 20 basis points. At the same time, the dollar index (DXY) jumped by 1 to 105, reaching its highest level since November 2023.
交易员重新考虑对美联储降息的押注。CME FedWatch 工具目前显示，6 月份降息的预期已降至 19%，而 7 月份降息的可能性目前为 44%。昨天，这些数字分别为 57% 和 74%。
The traders reconsider their bets on the Fed. The CME Fedwatch tool now shows that the expectation of interest cuts has fallen to 19 per cent in June, while the probability of interest reductions in July is now 44 per cent. Yesterday, these figures were 57 per cent and 74 per cent, respectively.
美国基准股指盘中触及近四周以来的最低水平。截至周三收盘，道指初步收跌420点或1%，标普500指数跌0.95%，纳指跌0.84%。
The United States benchmark index has reached its lowest level since the last four weeks. As of Wednesday, it had fallen by 420 points or 1 per cent, by 0.95 per cent and by 0.84 per cent.
比特币巨鲸在 CPI 之后“逢低买入”
After the CPI, the Bitcoin whales "at a time of low buy"
尽管 CPI 数据“火热”，但 BTC 价格走势却反转向上，交易平台 Material Indicators 追踪到全球最大交易所币安 (Binance) 上购买量的增加，证明巨鲸可能在逢低买入。
Although the CPI data are “hot”, the BTC price trend has been reversed, and the trading platform Material Industries has tracked an increase in purchases on the world's largest exchange currency, proving that giant whales may be buying at a low price.
该公司在 X 上的一篇帖子中表示：“FireCharts 分类的 CVD （专有交易指标之一）显示，巨鲸买入了 BTC 的下跌，就这样，比特币回到了 69,000 美元上方，每日蜡烛图再次变绿”。
In an X post, the company stated: “FireCharts classed CVD (one of the exclusive trading indicators) shows that giant whales bought BTC's fall, and thus Bitcoin returned to over $69,000 and the daily candle map turned green again”.
与此同时，交易员 Daan Crypto Trades指出，本周末跌破 68,000 美元产生的 CME 缺口已随着消费物价指数 (CPI) 的上涨而缩窄，到目前为止，已从缺口收盘水平反弹。
At the same time, the trader, Daan Crypto Trades, noted that the CME gap created by the fall of $68,000 this weekend had narrowed as the consumer price index (CPI) rose and had so far rebounded from the gap level.
短期内的波动
Short-term Volatility
RAILGUN 撰稿人Alan Scott表示：“随着减半的临近，所有人的目光都集中在比特币上，但一个主要因素可能会让这个周期与其他周期不同。由于比特币在减半之前达到了历史新高，这是加密货币历史上的第一次，因此出现了更大的抛售压力。”
Alan Scott, a RALGUN author, said, “As half of the money is approaching, everyone's eyes are focused on bitcoin, but one major factor may make the cycle different from the other. As Bitcoin reached an all-time high before halving, it was the first time in the history of crypto-currency history that there was an even greater pressure to sell.”
他表示：“以更高价格购买比特币的短期持有者将不断卖出、卖出、卖出，从而改变其资产分配和获利了结。还值得注意的是，4 月 15 日至 5 月 1 日的纳税季节会消除系统中的流动性，这往往会对短期价格走势产生负面影响。”
He said that “short-term holders who purchase bitcoin at higher prices will sell, sell, sell, and thus change the distribution of their assets and pay off. It is also worth noting that the tax season of 15 April to 1 May will eliminate liquidity in the system, which will often have a negative impact on short-term price movements.”
Scott警告说：“这可能会使比特币在减半后的相当长一段时间内波动。宏观经济事件，例如美联储的量化紧缩，可能会导致比特币下跌，因为更多的流动性被从市场上撤走。虽然加密货币今年确实复苏了，但值得注意的是，有很多因素可能会导致比特币陷入困境。”
Scott warned that: “This could cause bitcoin to fluctuate over a considerable period of time after halving. Macroeconomic events, such as the quantitative austerity of the Fed, could lead to bitcoins falling, because more liquidity is being removed from the market.
不过，减半后价格下跌的一个可能缓冲是交易所的比特币供应量，近几个月来比特币供应量一直在稳步下降。
However, one possible buffer from price decline after halving is the exchange's Bitcoin supply, which has been declining steadily in recent months.
加密货币分析公司 CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 表示，虽然减半后新发行量将减少一半，但比特币的需求预计将继续增加，Moreno在X平台写道：“美元通胀加速，而下周比特币通胀率将减半。”
According to CryptoQuant Research Manager Julio Moreno, while the new distribution will be halved by half, the demand for Bitcoin is expected to continue to increase, and Moreno wrote on platform X: “The inflation rate in the United States dollar will accelerate, while the inflation rate in the Bitcoin will be halved next week.”
CryptoQuant 提供的数据显示，比特币的需求增长目前“约为历史最高水平（环比 11%）”，这主要是由大持有者和巨鲸推动的。
According to the data provided by CryptoQuant, the demand growth in Bitcoin is currently “about the highest level ever (11 per cent of the ring comparison), driven mainly by large holders and giant whales.
随着摩根士丹利和瑞银等银行竞相为客户提供现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），预计需求将继续攀升，此外，据腾讯财经《一线》报道，嘉实、华夏在港获批“币圈”资管资格，香港的比特币现货ETF最快4月底前上架。
The demand is expected to continue to rise as banks such as Morgan Stanley and Silver compete to provide their customers with a spot-based Bitcoin Exchange Trading Fund (ETF). In addition, as reported in First Line, Kaguin and Huaxia have been granted “currency circle” qualifications in Hong Kong, and Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong will be launched as soon as possible by the end of April.
基于这些因素，市场分析师 Rekt Capital认为，从现在到减半期间，比特币的任何价格下跌都可能引发迅速反弹。
Based on these factors, Market Analyst Rekt Capital argued that any price decline in Bitcoin between now and halving could trigger a rapid rebound.
近期另外一个对短期趋势不看好的是 BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes，他认为5 月 1 日之前风险资产将极度疲软，减半以及美联储和财政部的“一系列伎俩”是他决定“在五月份之前放弃交易”的原因。然而，Hayes对中期走势仍持乐观态度。返回搜狐，查看更多
Another recent understatement of short-term trends is by Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, who argued that risk assets would be extremely weak by half before May 1 and that the Fed and the Ministry of Finance's “a series of tricks” were the reason why he decided “to give up the deal by May”. However, Hayes remains optimistic about the medium-term movement. returned to search the fox to see more
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