图片来源@视觉中国
Image Source @VisualChina
文 | 锌刻度，作者 | 陈邓新，编辑 | 高智
Zinc scale, author Chen Dengxin, editor Gao Ji
比特币的行情，总是那么惊心动魄。
Bitcoin's way, always so thrilling.
2020年11月25日，比特币兑美元价格站上19000美元大关，距离2017年12月17日创下的19875美元历史高点仅一步之遥，随后行情连续两日走低，甚至一度暴跌3000美元。
On 25 November 2020, Bitcoin stood at $19,000 against the United States dollar price, one step away from the historic height of $875, which was created on 17 December 2017, and then went down for two days, or even to a sudden drop of $3,000.
尽管如此，比特币2020年的涨幅仍超过400%，不改牛市的节奏，谁也想不到比特币从熊市到牛市，仅花了不到8个月。
Nevertheless, Bitcoin grew by more than 400 per cent in 2020, without changing the rhythm of the cattle market, and no one could have imagined that Bitcoin would have taken less than eight months from Bear to Cattle.
2020年3月12日比特币兑美元价格还经历了血崩，最低跌破3800美元关口，创下6年来最大跌幅，导致超过10万投资者爆仓。
Bitcoin prices against the United States dollar also experienced a haemorrhage on 12 March 2020, with the lowest drop of $3,800, the largest decline in six years, leading to the explosion of more than 100,000 investors.
彼时，币圈弥漫着熊市的气息，大大小小的投资者哀鸿遍野。
At the same time, the currency was full of bears, and investors, large and small, were grieving.
否极泰来，比特币上演了暴涨行情，不过与2017年的行情相比有三个不同之处：山寨币没有跟着鸡犬升天，新韭菜没有踏破币圈的门槛，挖矿回暖却难见增量。
If not, bitcoin is on the rise, but there are three differences from what happened in 2017: the strong didn't follow the chickens, the scavenger didn't break the ring, and the mining was hard to warm up.
比特币牛市又至，币圈的狂热似乎还在路上。
Bitcoin's Cow City is back, and currency circles seem to be on their way.
比特币试图登顶，山寨币未到山腰
Bitcoin's trying to get to the top.
“比特币一马当川，山寨币严重掉队了。”币圈资深玩家王培易如是说。
"Bitcoin's a horse in the middle of the mountain, and the mound's a big fall." A senior player in the ring, Wang Pei-Yi, said.
王培易2006年毕业之后成为一名码农，2011年之后转型安全工程师，从而与比特币结下不解之缘：“当初留意比特币纯粹是为了追踪黑产，后来才把它当做投资品看待。”
After graduating in 2006, Wang Pei became a code farmer, and after 2011, the transition security engineer became incongruous with Bitcoin: “Betcoin was only seen as an investment when it was purely for the purpose of tracking black output”.
经历过2017年比特币泡沫的王培易告诉锌刻度，当年虚拟货币市场是普涨行情，比特币与山寨币价格比翼双飞，如今莱特币、以太币等虽然价格也在涨，但滞后太多甚至有不少还未突破2018年的高点。
Wang Pei, who went through a bitcoin bubble in 2017, told zinc scale that the virtual currency market was a boom, that bitcoin was flying against the price of the mountain, and that today the prices of Leitco and Etaco are rising, but too much, if not too much, has yet to reach the high point of 2018.
“2017年一些山寨币涨幅远超比特币，现在完全反过来了，比特币都到山峰了，多数山寨币还未到山腰。”王培易称。
"Some of the strong coins rose far more than bitcoin in 2017, and now they're completely reversed. Bitcoin's at the top of the mountain, and most of them are not yet at the back of the mountain.
王培易认为这背后的原因是虚拟货币交易风格出现了重大变化。
According to Wang Pei-yee, the reason behind this is that there has been a significant change in the style of virtual currency transactions.
上一次牛市虽然有大鳄出没，但更多地是散户聚沙成塔推动行情前行，譬如比特币是舶来品，持币较重的多在海外，但2016年中国的比特币交易量占到全球交易量的99.9%，散户化特征明显。
While the last time the cow market had been agglomerated, it had been driven more by the bulk of the sand towers, such as Bitcoin, which was a pick-up product, and more heavily held abroad, China's transactions accounted for 99.9 per cent of global transactions in 2016.
而这波牛市则主要由美国的华尔街力量主导，有明显的主攻方向与上涨轴心，“灰度才是‘带头大哥’，行情涨不涨涨多少，就看灰度买不买买多少。”
And this bovine is dominated by the power of Wall Street in the United States, and there is a clear main thrust and the axis of the rise: "The Greyscale is the Big Leader, so as to see if the Greyscale buys or doesn't buy as much as it does."
公开资料显示，灰度投资为美国最大的虚拟货币投资公司之一，旗下比特币信托通过美国证券交易委员会注册，为合规的投资工具，截至11月21日灰度投资持有的比特币总数接近53万枚，占比特币总量的比例为2.5%，倘若除去已丢失的比特币，占真实流通量的比例为3.6％。
According to public information, as one of the largest virtual currency investment companies in the United States, the Bitcoin under the flag was registered through the United States Securities and Exchange Commission as a compliance investment instrument, with a total of nearly 530,000 bitcoins held as at 21 November, representing 2.5 per cent of the total amount of bitcoins, and 3.6 per cent of real circulation if the lost bitcoins were excluded.
灰度持仓排名靠前的都是机构投资者
The greyscale ranks ahead of institutional investors.
据Whalemaps数据显示，以灰度投资为代表的机构多在1.2万美元~1.6万美元建仓，由于此类公司仅仅聚焦极少数虚拟货币币种，起步即将大多数山寨币拒之门外。
According to Whalemaps data, most of the institutions represented by greyscale investments were set up at $12,000 to $16,000, and since such companies focused only on a few virtual currencies, most of them were turned away.
锌刻度进一步查阅资料发现，灰度投资定位并非针对散户，而是瞄向资产超过500万美元机构投资者，据灰度投资2020年Q3数据显示，90%的客户都是机构投资者，这意味着客户的风险承受能力更大，高位参与交易的底气更足。
A further look at the zinc scale reveals that the greyscale investment position is not aimed at the homeless, but at institutional investors with assets exceeding $5 million, and that, according to the Greyscale Investment Q3 data for 2020, 90 per cent of clients are institutional investors, which means that clients are more exposed to risk and have a better background to be involved in the transaction.
一名私募人士也认可这个观点，其表示机构主导的比特币行情打法与国内基金抱团模式有异曲同工之妙：“灰度推高比特币价格→投资者获利匪浅→更多投资者慕名而来→继续买买买→比特币价格持续走高，这个过程就可自循环。如此一来，市场的资金高度集中，山寨币自然就会‘缺血’，那么一边抱团不死上涨不止，一边滞涨就不足为奇了。”
This view was echoed by a private funder, who said that the agency-led Bitcoin courtship was different from the domestic fund conglomerate model: “It's not surprising that ‘strong’ continues to buy bitcoin at the expense of more investors to buy bitcoin as it continues to rise. ”
该私募人士进一步指出，灰度投资等虚拟货币投资公司的盈利模式是收取信托产品管理费，每年2%~3%不等，规模越大收取的管理费越多，因此天然就存在做大规模的内生动力。
The private recruit further noted that the profitable model of virtual money investment companies, such as greyscale investments, was the collection of trust product management fees, ranging from 2 to 3 per cent per year, and that the larger the size, the greater the management fees, the natural incentive to do large-scale endogenous work.
一个疑问解开了，另外一个疑问又来了：华尔街为何如此青睐比特币？
One question is solved, the other one comes back: Why is Wall Street so fond of Bitcoin?
一个原因为美元贬值。2020年3月美联储推出无限量QE政策，从而开启放水模式，美元指数从3月的高点102.99一路下跌，11月26日一度跌破91.90，相当于七八个月美元贬值了超过10%，而比特币可满足部分避险资金的需要。
One of the reasons for the depreciation of the United States dollar is that in March 2020, the Fed launched its unlimited QE policy, thus opening the way for water release, with the dollar index falling down from its high of 102.99 in March to a one-time fall of 91.90 on 26 November, equivalent to a depreciation of more than 10% in seven or eight months, while Bitcoin could meet some of the needs for hedge funds.
另外一个原因为美国疫情失控，截至11月26日美国感染人数超过1300万人，据灰度投资调查显示，63％的人表示疫情造成经济动荡，打击了他们对传统金融市场的信心，对购买比特币的决定产生了积极影响。
Another reason for 此背景下，比特币成为资本的避难所。 In this context, Bitcoin became a haven for capital. 闻着血腥味早晚都会来？ The smell of blood comes sooner or later? 非但山寨币滞涨，投资热情似乎也未完全出圈。 Instead of the stagnating currency, investment enthusiasm does not seem to be fully out of the circle. 对此，区块链开发者吴风令深有感悟：“上一次牛市最疯狂的时候，华尔街喊出10万美元的天价，现在又喊到17万美元，但圈内似乎没有那么亢奋，也未见前仆后继的新人。” In response, Wu Fung, the developer of the block chain, was struck by the fact that: “The last time the bull market was maddest, Wall Street offered $100,000 in real money and now calls $170,000, but the circle does not seem to be so uptight, nor did it see the new man who followed the former servants”. 吴风令向锌刻度回忆，2016~2017年其创建的一个区块链开发群每天至少收到一两百个入群申请，微博上有关比特币致富的段子铺天盖地，而身边来咨询的亲朋好友也络绎不绝，“那时我侄儿才高二，就问我怎么买币、卖币、炒币，想着改变人生躲过高考。” To Zinc, he recalled that in 2016-2017, he created a block-chain development group that received at least one or two hundred applications a day, and that the microblogging section about Bitcoin's wealth, and the friends and relatives who came to consult with him, kept talking about it, “when my nephew was a junior, he asked me how to buy money, sell it, sell it and sell it, and try to change my life to avoid high scores”. 如今，这种现象并不明显，“新人有是有，也不算太少，但没有那种人人都想来捞一笔的感觉了。” Today, this phenomenon is not obvious: “The newcomers have, and are not too few, but there is no sense that everyone wants to make a living”. 之所以如此，吴风令认为一方面国内的监管趋严，参与门槛大幅抬升。随着国内虚拟货币交易所被取缔、对合规化要求提高，虚拟货币交易变得颇为复杂，对普通人而言是不小的考验，从而阻挡了部分潜在投资者。 That is why Mr. Wu argues that the threshold for participation has been raised significantly by the tightening of domestic regulations on one hand. As the domestic virtual currency exchange has been banned and compliance requirements have increased, virtual currency transactions have become complex and not a small test for ordinary people, blocking some of the potential investors. 而在国外，交易反而变得更为简单，譬如国际支付巨头PayPal于2020年10月上线了虚拟货币支付功能，刺激美国投资者加码，据 Pantera Capital数据显示，通过 PayPal 买入的每日比特币数量已经超过了每日新增的比特币数量的70%。 Outside the country, transactions have become simpler, such as the virtual currency payment function of the international pay giant PayPal, which went online in October 2020, stimulating United States investors to add codes, and according to Pantera Capital data, the daily amount of bitcoins purchased through PayPal has exceeded 70 per cent of the daily addition of bitcoins. 另外一方面部分退圈的投资者仍心有余悸。虚拟货币波动幅度较大，实行的又是7×24小时交易制度，一不留神就容易被割韭菜。 On the other hand, investors who have partly retreated are still frustrated.
比特币波动剧烈 Bitcoin is very volatile. 定居西南某网红城市的萧华就是活生生的案例，跟着同事买比特币小赚了一笔，但2018年初买瑞波币遭遇重创，彼时瑞波币暴涨了500倍，被视为下一个比特币，“上班没有多久，本来就没有多少结余，还挪用父母给的部分首付款，结果全赔进去了，房价还继续涨了。” The case of Xiaohua, who settled in a red city in the south-west of the country, was a living one and made a small profit with colleagues who bought bitcoin, but the price of the house continued to rise in early 2018, when the price of the ripcoin rose 500 times and was considered to be the next bitcoin, “not long before working, with little savings, and embezzled part of the parent's initial payment.” 包括萧华在内多名罢手的投资者向锌刻度表示，之前炒币亏损的伤痕仍未痊愈，现在暂时没有重新投资虚拟货币的打算。 A number of disengaging investors, including Xiaohua, indicated to Zinc scale that the wounds from the previous losses of the currency were still not healed and that there was no intention of reinvesting the virtual currency for the time being. 事实上，哪怕是大鳄炒币也可能血本无归，譬如多家媒体报道，刘涛老公王珂在2020年5月之后炒币亏损12个亿元。 In fact, even alligators may lose their money, for example, in a number of media reports that Liu's husband Wang Koo lost 1.2 billion yuan after May 2020. 不过，吴风令判断一旦比特币突破历史新高、打开上涨空间，币圈必然沸腾从而产生溢出效应，届时新人蜂拥而至或将踏破币圈的门槛：“只要你把赚钱放到人生第一位，闻着血腥味早晚都会来。” 挖矿为何不复狂热？ Why don't we go back to mining? 与币圈相似，挖矿热情也未回到巅峰。 Similar to the currency ring, mining enthusiasm has not returned to its peak. 2020年3月，杨胜华与锌刻度交流时还对比特币价格跌破此背景感到忧虑，如今意气风发地回复：“赌赢了！” In March 2020, Yang Seung-hwa and Zinc mittens were in a state of concern about the fall in the price of bitcoin in this context, and he replied: “The bet wins!” 今年 42 岁的杨胜华，是云南一家比特币矿场的合伙人之一，为了应对2020年比特币产量减半，由1800枚减至900枚，今年1月初所有合伙人初步达成一致，添购S19 Pro增加算力。 This year, 42-year-old Yang Seung-hwa, one of the partners of a Bitcoin mine in Yunnan, initially agreed by all partners at the beginning of January this year to purchase S19 Pro to increase its capacity in order to halve the production of bitcoin by 2020 from 1,800 to 900. 彼时，S19 Pro的比特币挖矿成本为每枚3150美元左右，在电费成本、挖矿算力成本等要素不变的情况下，预计减产后挖矿成本理论上为6300美元左右，比当时比特币价格还要高出一头。 At the same time, the cost of mining in bitcoin for S19Pro was around $3150 per unit, and the cost of remining after childbirth was projected to be theoretically around $6,300, one more than at that time, without any change in the cost of electricity, the cost of mining arithmetic, etc. 比特币历史减半时间及价格变化 Half-time of Bitcoin history and price changes “减产之后，大量U8、S9 这样的老旧矿机原本会因为成本过高退出，现在也没有动力了。”杨胜华认为产量减半从供需关系看是减少供给，而从矿场关系看是增加挖矿成本，“现在都可以盈利，市场也在快速回暖，但还未到狂热的地步。” “As a result of the reduction in production, a large number of old mine machines like U8 and S9 would have withdrawn because of excessive costs and are no longer motivated.” Shenghua said that the reduction of production by half was a reduction in supply in terms of supply and demand, whereas the increase in mining costs in terms of mining relations was “now profitable and markets were warming rapidly, but not to the point of fanaticism.” 尽管如此，杨胜华认为挖矿恐难回高光时刻，原因有三。 Nevertheless, Yang Seung-hwa believes that mining is unlikely to return to the moment of high light for three reasons. 首先，挖矿面临淘汰风险。2019年4月8日，国家发改委发布《产业结构调整指导目录（2019年本，征求意见稿）》，“虚拟货币‘挖矿’活动（比特币等虚拟货币的生产过程）”赫然在淘汰名单中。 begins with the risk of mine mining being phased out. On 8 April 2019, , the National Development and Reform Commission published the Directory of Guidance on Industrial Structural Adjustment (2019 edition, comments), which states that “the virtual currency “mining” (the production process of virtual currency such as Bitcoin)” is well on the list. 这意味着，场外资本欲寻求挖矿的增量空间，难度颇大。 This means that it is difficult for off-site capital to seek incremental space for mining. 其次，小水电难寻。挖矿需要消耗大量电力，低成本电力成为衡量矿场竞争力的关键指标之一，因此成本相对更低的小水电是理想的挖矿能量来源。 Second, small hydropower is difficult to find. digs require large amounts of electricity and low-cost electricity is one of the key indicators for measuring the competitiveness of mines, so that relatively low-cost small hydropower is the ideal source of mining energy. 从2017年起，就有小水电陆续被清退，这个趋势延续至今，譬如2020年11月18日有媒体报道，为保护长江生态环境，四川4774座小水电站将整改和退出，其中1091座将被清退，3683座属整改序列，而现列为整改的如果相关手续不能及时完善，也会被清退。 Since 2017, there has been a gradual withdrawal of small hydropower, a trend that continues to this day, such as the press report of 18 November 2020 that, in order to protect the Yangtze ecosystem, 4774 small hydropower stations in Sichuan will be rehabilitated and withdrawn, of which 1,091 will be cleared and 3,683 will be modified, and if the relevant procedures are not completed in a timely manner, they will be removed. 这也在一定程度上限制了矿场的增量空间。 This also limits to some extent the incremental space of the mines. 再次，海外政策的不确定性。虚拟货币在国外也存在分歧，譬如特朗普2019年7月表示: “我不喜欢比特币和其他虚拟货币，它们不是货币，它们的价值波动很大，而且是凭空而来的。” Again, uncertainty about overseas policy. The
市场传闻美国财政部计划跟踪虚拟货币钱包的所有者与参与交易的每个人，这意味包括比特币等虚拟货币可能失去匿名性这个基石。
Market rumours suggest that the United States Department of the Treasury plans to track the owners of virtual money wallets and everyone involved in the transaction, which means, among other things, that virtual currency such as Bitcoin may lose its anonymity as a cornerstone.
倘若没有匿名性，比特币的设计初衷就不复存在，那交易价值又从何谈起？抱有疑虑的资金自然不敢下场。
If there is no anonymity, the design of Bitcoin will no longer exist. What about the value of the transaction?
从这个角度来看，这波比特币牛市虽然与以往有不同之处，但最终收场之时恐仍难逃尸骨累累，届时币圈与矿场又将上演悲欢离合的一幕。
From this point of view, the city of bobitcoin, although different from the past, ended with a fear of death and death, when the currency ring and the mine will again be a scene of sorrow and joy.
（文中受访者王培易、吴风令、萧华、杨胜华皆为化名）
(The interviewees are Wang Pei, Wu Feng, Xiaohua and Yang Seung-hwa.)
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