萊特幣連環爆倉事件始末

2014年3月21日下午六點左右，比特幣、萊特幣價格出現了異常波動，一個小時內各個交易所牌價跌幅驚人。其中中國三大比特幣交易網站之一的火幣網萊特幣價格更是出現了1元的價格。事情究竟是怎麼發生的，簡單來說就是莊家看到利空消息後藉機砸盤，然後將火幣網上所有槓桿做多者一網打盡，再以極低價格吸入。作爲一個旁觀者，我親眼目睹了所有參與槓桿交易的散戶都被絞殺殆盡，火幣網也蒙受了鉅額損失，而大部分利潤流入了莊家手中。

On March 21, 2014, at about 6.00 p.m., the prices of Bitcoins and Lightcoins were abnormally volatile, and the prices of various exchanges fell dramatically in an hour. One of China's three major bitcoin trading sites, the price of Lightnets, showed a price of $1.

有道是「無風不起浪，空穴纔來風」，今日暴跌與火幣網最近舉動不無關係。火幣網最近推出了一個借貸的新業務，就是說交易者可以拿一部分資金坐抵押，以一定的利率借貸更多的現金（人民幣）或虛擬貨幣（比特幣）。爲了防止違約，交易者借貸的現金或比特幣不可以提現，只能用於交易。火幣網隨時監控用戶的資產負債，一旦發現資產按照市價折算後恰好不足以償還本金和利息時，就通過在市場上市價買賣強制將資產變現，償還債務，稱爲強制平倉（Forced liquidation）。事實上火幣網還預留了一些空間，並非等到交易者真的還不起了纔強制平倉，而是發現資產小於等於負債的120%就強制平倉，這樣可以更加安全。

In order to prevent breach of the contract, the cash or bitcoins borrowed by the traders cannot be raised, but can only be traded. As soon as the money network controls the equity debt of the users, once it is found that the assets have been converted to market prices that are not sufficient to repay the capital and interest, it can sell the capital at a market price and pay the debt at a higher rate than 120% of the debt, which is more secure.

通過這種手段，交易者可以槓桿做多或者槓桿做空，總資產與保證金的比率稱爲槓桿率（Leverage ratio）。槓桿率越高，單位價格波動的收益或虧損就越大。當槓桿率過高時，強制平倉（又俗稱爆倉）發生的可能性很大。槓桿交易的引入對於市場來說是一件好事情，因爲新的信息出現後價格可以更快收斂到新的均衡值。但槓桿交易也放大了風險，使得風險控制更加難以做到。

By doing so, traders can do more poles or truncheons, and the ratio of total assets to collateral is called Leverage Ratio. The higher the pole rate, the higher the rate, the greater the gain or loss of a unit price.

火幣網要求120%的超額保證金本來就是爲了規避爆倉風險，然而意想不到的一幕還是發生了。下午六點開始，微博上傳出了一條「央行將在4月15日之前全面封殺比特幣」的假消息，比特幣、萊特幣價格應聲下跌。此時，莊家的大額資金又在火幣網上砸了一把，使價格繼續下跌了10%左右。於是，開始有高槓桿的做多交易者爆倉了，這些人爆倉以後爲了償還債務，需要把手中的虛擬貨幣按照市價拋出，以還本付息，這一切都是交易所系統自動執行的。然而在價格下跌的時候多頭平倉，只會以更低的價格賣出，因爲大家都在恐慌性拋售中。這樣市價拋售出的虛擬貨幣只能是很低價格的，賣出去以後換回來的資金已經早已不是強制平倉臨界點價格能換回來的資金了，於是提供流動性的一方也遭受了損失（火幣網）。由於爆倉拋售的影響，價格進一步下跌，越來越多的人爆倉了。

At this point, the banker’s excess guarantee of 120% of the price fell by about 10%. So, when the multi-trading stock began to explode, it started to pay off the debt, and the virtual currency of the bank had to be thrown out at the market price before April 15 in order to pay off the price, all of which was run by the exchange system itself. However, when the price fell, the banker’s bulk was sold at a lower price, and the market’s price was sold at a higher price than the price was sold at a higher price.

這次連環爆倉事件的牽涉面有多廣呢，據不完全可靠的統計，從18點開始一個小時內的爆倉金額多達1900萬元，直接將萊特幣價格砸到了誇張的1元，比特幣跌幅也超過13%。最慘不忍睹的是借貸買入萊特幣的散戶，哪怕只借了一點點錢「嚐鮮」，也會將所有資產全部賠光！

What is the extent of this chain of blasts, which, according to less than reliable statistics, amounts to $19 million more than an hour from 18 o'clock, which has cost Leiter up to an exaggerated dollar, and more than 13% more than a bit more than a bit more than a bit. The worst thing is to borrow money to buy out a lot of Leather money, and to borrow even a little bit of money, and to wipe out all the assets.

舉例來說，假設我資金一共10000元人民幣，又借了200元，這樣總資產是10200元，槓桿率只有10200/10000=1.02。我拿着10200元在100元/LTC的時候買入了102個萊特幣，怎麼說都覺得很安全了，萬萬沒想到天上飛來一隻「黑天鵝」，萊特幣價格跌到了誇張的1元。這下系統判定我的102個萊特幣只值102元，根本還不起200元的債務！怎麼辦？系統強制平倉，以1元1個的價格把我的102個萊特幣全部拋售，我那10000元就這麼賠光了！甚至連借給我錢的火幣網也跟着賠了98塊。想想看如果我當初不借那200塊，我完全可以選擇在1元的時候繼續持有，等漲回來再賣掉，毫髮無損。這個例子並不是危言聳聽，而是真實發生了的事情。

For example, assuming that my capital amounts to $10,000 and lends another $200, the total is $10,200, with a pole rate of 10,200 = 1.02. I've bought 102 Leiters at $100/LTC. It's safe to say that I didn't expect to fly in the sky to fly a , and that the Leet dollar fell to an miraculous dollar. If I don't borrow the 102 Leatons, I can't afford 200 dollars, what if I do not borrow the 200 dollars?

這麼多人虧損，連交易所都虧，那麼錢就這麼蒸發了？其實是有人賺到了的，這些人就是在低價的時候抄底的那些禿鷲們。這些人可能是碰巧，也可能是早有預謀，早就準備好了現金等待在低位買入，覺得散戶們爆倉得差不多了的時候，就可以出手了，在最低點10000元就可以買10000個萊特幣。過了不到一個小時，萊特幣價格又回到了正常水平，在低點買入的人如果在這時拋售，收益可是十倍百倍。

So many people lose, even the exchange, so the money evaporates. In fact, there are people who make it, and these people are the ones who cut it down at low prices. These people may happen, or they may be premeditated, waiting for cash to be bought at low prices, and they feel that they can do it when they're ready, and they can buy 10,000 litts at a minimum of $10,000. In less than an hour, the value of Lightcoins is back to normal, and those who buy it at a low point can sell it ten times as much.

仔細觀察可以看出，虛擬貨幣市場上大量的買賣單都集中在買賣差價附近。當市場遇到大幅單邊波動時，市場上委託的單很快就會被搶光，然後委託價格就變得極其稀疏，因此暴漲暴跌就在那一瞬間完成，槓桿交易更是加快了這一進程。

A closer look shows that a large number of purchases in the virtual currency market are close to the purchase price gap. When the market is faced with a large one-sided wave, the market bill is quickly taken out, and then the price charged becomes extremely thin, so the boom and fall is completed at that moment, and the trade in poles speeds up the process.

相比萊特幣誇張的價格波動，比特幣表現出了相當好的抗風險性，最大差價也不超過15%。由此可見，市場的穩定依賴於衆多不同目的、不同價值觀的參與者。比特幣與實體經濟聯繫的緊密程度是任何其他虛擬貨幣都不能比擬的，正是這些緊密的聯繫保證了它巨大的供給和需求短期內不受投資者信心的影響而劇烈波動。

As can be seen, the stability of the market depends on participants with different purposes and values. The tightness of the currency’s connection to the real economy cannot be compared to that of any other virtual currency, and it is these tight connections that guarantee that its huge supply and demand will not be affected by investors’ confidence in the short term.

我對比特幣一直以來的態度都是謹慎樂觀的，其一大部分信心來自於它與實體經濟的聯繫。全世界現在有很多家圍繞比特幣產業的創業公司，其中與實體經濟聯繫的幾乎都在美國。反過來看中國，三家交易所的交易量佔了全世界大部分，但卻沒有一個用比特幣支付的實體產業（中國央行禁止比特幣進入實體經濟）。

There are many start-ups around the Bitcoin industry around the world, almost all of which are connected to the real economy in the US. In China, three exchanges account for most of the world’s transactions, but none of them are paid for in bitcoins (the Central Bank of China has banned bitcoins from entering the real economy).

以下內容摘自華旻豪的個人專欄——“三.二一”虛擬貨幣暴跌事件總結，事件具體的前因後果大家可以打開鏈接看看。

The text below is taken from >The personal column of the “III.II” virtual currency crash summed up at .

今天的虛擬貨幣市場又可以載入史冊了。

Today's virtual currency market is back in history.

晚間18:40左右，原本風平浪靜的比特幣市場開始下挫，且下跌幅度呈發散擴大態勢，驚慌失措的投資者開始將目光集中在了那一則不脛而走的傳言上：央行封殺比特幣交易？！火幣網的ltc價格瞬間觸及每個1元的跳樓價，而okcoin的btc也接近此前央行封殺三方充值通道時的低點附近。市場哀鴻遍野，投資者再次遭遇莊家的集體絞殺。直至晚20:00左右，隨着相關澄清公告的發佈，市場才終於平靜下來，虛擬貨幣價格出現了不同程度的回升，這一上竄下調的市場變幻卻成爲了無數市場參與者們揮之不去的陰影。

At about 18:40 p.m., the quiet bitcoin market began to fall, and the drop spread, and the frightened investors began to focus on the rumour that the central bank had blocked the bitcoin deal? The price of the ltc in the fire money network was immediately hit by a one dollar jump, while the btc in Okcoin was close to the low point when the central bank had blocked the trio-valued corridor. The market was squeezing, and investors were again hit by a crowd of the housemen. Until around 20:00, the market finally calmed down with the announcement of clarification.

讓我們疏理一下整個事件的來龍去脈，看莊家如何利用天時、地利、人和，謀取利益的。

Let us take a look at the whole story and see how the house uses the time, the benefits, the people and the benefits.

導火索一：充值通道暫時關閉，流動性緊張

Fireline I: Filling Pass is temporarily closed and fluidity is tense

央行的小額支付系統的例行維護是整個時間的鋪墊之一，上午10:44在okcoin的公告欄上出現了這樣一則通告：

The routine maintenance of the central bank's petty payment system was one of the mattresses for the entire time. At 10:44 a.m., this announcement appeared on the kcoin bulletin board:

关于“央行支付系统维护、暂停跨行转账业务”的通知

Notification of “maintenance of central bank payment systems and suspension of cross-line transfers”

3月21日起，由于央行支付清算系统维护，22日晚00:00至08:00 ，各行小额支付系统（5万元以下跨行汇款业务）、全国支票影像交换系统和网上支付跨行清算系统（跨行账户管理）暂停受理业务 。此期间，如果用户需要充值，可以选择招行银行同行汇款，人民币提现暂不受影响！给大家带来的不便深表歉意！

Since 21 March, as a result of the maintenance of the Central Bank’s payment clearing system, small payment systems (inter-routine money transfer operations of up to $50,000), the national cheque video exchange system and the online payment inter-routine clearing system (cross-line account management) have been suspended for the night of 22nd. During this period, if users need to fill their value, they can choose to recruit bank remittances, and the renminbi is not affected.

央行支付清算系統的維護意味着近期充值通道的堵塞，進而導致無彈性的資金供給，這爲莊家的翻江倒海提供了便利。

Central banks pay for the maintenance of the liquidation system, which means that the near-term puncture of the punctuation route has been blocked, and that it has led to the supply of non-viable funds, which has made it easier for the house to cross the river.

導火索二：槓桿機制引入，大量風險堆積

Fireline II: Introduction of poles with large risk accumulations

近期各大交易平臺爲了爭奪客戶動足了腦筋，除了大力發展多幣種交易之外，還引入了以融資融幣爲實現形式的槓桿交易。槓桿交易這把雙刃劍爲平臺帶來流動性的同時也可以在頃刻之間將其摧毀。高波動率的特徵使得虛擬貨幣的槓桿交易危機重重，槓桿交易對於散戶的絞殺絕非個案，即使是在波動率相對虛擬貨幣較小的股票市場也曾發生過類似的踩踏事件，熟悉資本市場的朋友們一定不會忘記2013年的昌九生化事件，資產諸如預期落空的昌九生化連續11個跌停的宏偉景象在幾乎創造了資本市場連續跌停記錄的同時，更使得上億規模的融資交易集體壞賬，這些融資客除了喪失所有股票之外，還背上了一大筆負債。更讓他們心痛的是，被集體強制平倉的股份產生的挖坑效應反而讓遊資撿了一個便宜，股價隨後幾天連拉數個漲停。

In addition to the intensive development of multi-currency transactions, the powerful trades have recently been able to destroy them at the same time as the two-edged swords have become fluid. High wave rate features have led to a crisis in the virtual currency’s tradable tradables, which, at the same time as the collapse of the capital market, has led to the destruction of the market’s niches, even at the same time that there has been a peddling of the world’s smaller stock market, and that friends familiar with the capital market will not forget that all stocks were lost in 2013.

引燃導火索:央行封殺？！

Initiating the fire: Central Bank Banning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

虛擬貨幣市場已經被充值受阻和槓桿交易整得脆弱不堪，點燃事件導火索的，是一則看似烏龍的傳言。晚間18:23下述信息開始在各大財經網站上傳開：

The virtual currency market, which has been blocked by charging, and the staggered trade, has been foiled by a rumour that it looks like a wolong. The following information has begun to spread on the major financial sites at 18:23 p.m.

“據傳中國央行已在3月18日發文，要求4月15日前停止一切比特幣交易。迄今央行對這一消息不置可否。”

“It has been reported that the Central Bank of China has sent a letter on March 18 calling for the closure of all bitcoin transactions by April 15. To date, the Central Bank has left this message undecided.”

倘若這一消息屬實，對於資金推動型的虛擬貨幣市場而言無疑是一個致命打擊，這則消息引燃了市場暴跌的導火索，市場打破了原先的均衡，開始了暴跌之旅。

If this information were true, it would be a deadly blow to the virtual currency market, which is a financial push, and which ignites the spark of a collapse in the market, which has broken the balance and started a plunge.

壓死駱駝的最後一根稻草：流動性危機

/strang'

仔細分析這則傳聞可以發現很多漏洞，更重要的是其影響遠不及去年央行封殺充值渠道。究竟是什麼原因使得虛擬貨幣的價格幾乎清零呢，答案就是流動性危機。

A detailed analysis of the rumour reveals many loopholes, and more importantly, its impact is far less than last year’s central bank blocking channels. What causes the virtual currency’s price to be almost zero, and the answer is a liquidity crisis?

從相關虛擬貨幣今天的價格走勢可以看出，開始階段下跌速度較爲有限，一些使用高槓桿的融資客成爲了暴跌的第一批犧牲者。此時他們的止損籌碼刺向了其他較低槓桿融資客，再加上莊家砸盤推波助瀾，越來越多的融資客加入了爆艙的陣營，市場正常的廣度範圍被擊穿，價格也呈加速下跌態勢。

As can be seen from today’s price movement in relation to virtual currencies, the initial phase of the decline was more limited, with some of the high-stretched investors becoming the first victims of a collapse. At that point, their leverage was punctured to other lower-stretched investors, coupled with the build-up of houses, and more and more of them joined the blast chamber, and the market’s normal breadth was knocked out, and prices were fast-tracked down.

與此同時，央行支付系統維護使得增量資金的救援成爲奢望，因而市場在其廣度範圍被擊穿後，沒有足夠的深度支撐賣盤，就好比深井沒有了井水，因而價格就似自由落體一般飛速下落。隨着價格接近井底，只要進行過融資，那怕動用了一點點槓桿的投資者都已經資不抵債了。最後所有融資客無一倖免全部爆艙，ltc價格落至井底。據相關網友統計，損失金額達1900萬元之巨。

At the same time, the central bank’s system of payment maintenance made the rescue of the incremental capital a luxury, so that the market did not have enough depth to support the sale board, as if deep wells were out of water. As the price approached the bottom of the well, the investors, who were afraid of using a little leverage, were already in debt. In the end, none of the investors were saved from the entire explosion, and the price of ltc fell to the bottom.

流動性爲王

/strang'

資本市場中，流動性就好比人體的血液。適當的流動性能夠保持資本市場的穩定運行，過快的流動性會讓市場陷入虛火狀態，積累隱患，而一旦流動性喪失，市場將陷入癱瘓。

In the capital market, mobility is like human blood. Appropriate mobility can keep the capital market stable, excessive mobility can plunge the market into a state of vandalism and accumulate risks, and if it loses it, the market will be crippled.

因此，今天這起事件遠不會隨着謠言的澄清而散去，流露出了虛擬貨幣市場崩潰的一些端倪：流動性收縮。在流動性充裕的市場，一個傳聞、一場鬧劇又怎可能產生軒然大波呢？流動性退潮的趨勢將在今後很長一段時間籠罩整個虛擬貨幣市場。

As a result, today’s event is far from dissipating with rumours of elucidation, revealing some of the beginnings of the collapse of the virtual currency market: movementary contraction. How can a rumour, and a drama, in a highly fluid market have a dramatic impact? The tide of the retreat will cover the entire virtual currency market for a long time to come.

2007年530暴跌是股市流動性退潮的一個標誌，雖然不久之後股市又創了新高，可誰又曾想到幾月之後的歷史性轉折呢？今年以來包括人民幣貶值、房產價格鬆動、債務違約等在內一系列事件，亦是流動性在相關領域撤退的重要信號，絕非一個沖擊那麼簡單。

The fall of 530 in 2007 was a sign of a retrenchment in the stock market, and although the stock market had recently established a new high, who would have thought of a historical turn in history after months? This year’s series of events, including the devaluation of the currency of the people, the easing of housing prices, and defaults on debt, are also important signs of a fluid retreat in the relevant domain, not so simple as a single blow.