币价20天暴跌44%，以太坊真的要凉凉？

文 | 棘轮?

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“以太坊会凉凉吗？”不止一位投资者在问。

“Is Ether cool?” more than one investor asked.

牛市中，无功即为过。没人预料到，这场开始于5月初的牛市，最终成了比特币的独自狂欢。而以太坊等公链，则几乎错过了这场盛宴。

No one expected that the bull market, which began in early May, would end up as a separate bitcoin party. The public chain, such as Etheria, almost missed the feast.

在币价之外，以太坊也面临着空前的危机。面对层出不穷的新对手，以太坊的性能早已落后。而它的扩容计划，仍遥遥无期。

In addition to the currency price, Ether is facing an unprecedented crisis. In the face of emerging new rivals, Ether's performance is already lagging.

在外界关注中，V神甚至提出，要借力BCH实现以太坊短期扩容。这样的权宜之计，被人解读为“寄人篱下”。

In the eyes of the outside world, God V has even suggested that the BCH should be used for short-term expansion. Such ad hoc measures are interpreted as being “under the parasitic fence”.

四面楚歌的以太坊，未来将走向何方？

Where will the future go?

01?币价疲软

It's a weak currency.

稳坐币圈市值第二交椅的以太坊，如今正面临着空前的市场危机。

The Etheria, which sits in the second round of market value in currency circles, is facing an unprecedented market crisis.

以太坊的币价走势有多惨？一组数据可见端倪。

How bad is the price going in the courthouse? A set of data is visible.

2019年6月27日，以太坊价格报366美元，达到近期高点。这一价格较此前历史低位（2018年12月，81美元）上涨352%，是此前历史最高位（2018年1月，1422美元）的25.7%。此后，以太坊价格开始回调，最低报于192美元，较6月27日高点相比跌去44%。

On 27 June 2019, at a recent high of $366, the price was 352 per cent higher than the previous low (December 2018, $81) and 25.7 per cent higher than the previous high (January 2018, $1422), after which it began to revert at a low of $192, down 44 per cent from the 27 June high.

按照相同的统计规则，同样在今年6月27日，比特币价格报13968美元，触及近期高点。这一价格较此前历史低位（2018年12月，3165美元）上涨341%，是此前历史最高位（2017年12月，19875美元）的70.3%。此后，比特币价格开始回调，最低报于9056美元，较6月27日高点跌去35.2%。

In accordance with the same statistical rules, also on 27 June of this year, the price of Bitcoin reached a recent high of $139.68. This price was 341 per cent higher than its previous historical low (December 2018, $3165) and 70.3 per cent higher than its previous high (December 2017, 19875), after which the price of Bitcoin began to roll back at a minimum of $9056, down 35.2 per cent from its 27 June high.

不难看出，相比于比特币，以太坊“收复失地”的程度十分有限。此外，在达到近期高点后，以太坊还出现了更惨烈的回调，价格甚至接近腰斩。

It's easy to see that the amount of “recovering the lost land” is very limited compared to Bitcoin. In addition, after reaching the recent heights, there was a much more dramatic retrenchment at the same price as near the beheading.

许多以太坊投资者因此深感失望。“BTC涨，ETH按兵不动；BTC跌，ETH应声下跌。”有人调侃道。

Many Etherian investors were deeply disappointed by this. “BTC rises, ETH remains in motion; BTC falls, ETH falls.” Some people argue.

在一些以太坊的坚定信仰者眼中，比特币的涨势甚至成为了以太坊币价低迷的原因之一，“比特币上涨，把整个币圈的血都吸光了”。

In the eyes of some of Etherm's committed believers, the increase in Bitcoin even became one of the reasons for the low price of the Ethercopic: “Bitcoin rises and consumes the blood of the whole ring.”

猜测并非空穴来风。近期，多位投资者对一本区块链表示，面对ETH的颓势，他们已经将ETH抛售，转而投资比特币等近期表现更加稳健的币种。

Suppositions are not empty. In recent times, several investors have said to a block chain that, in the face of the decline of the ETH, they have sold the ETH instead of investing in currencies that have been more robust in recent times, such as bitcoin.

事实上，2019年年中的这一场小牛市，已经成为了比特币及其分叉币的狂欢。BTC领涨，BCH、BSV等分叉币紧随其后。此后，多个平台币也应声上涨。然而，以ETH为代表的公链币种，在这场小牛市中的表现，却并不亮眼。

In fact, in mid-2019, this calf market became a birch of Bitcoin and its fork. BTC rises, and BCH and BSV splits follow. Since then, several platform coins should also rise. However, the official chain of currencies, represented by ETH, does not look good in the calf market.

在ETH之外，市值排名前三的公链项目EOS、TRX、ADA，近期高点价格也仅分别相当于历史最高价的37%、18.2%、8.7%。这样的成绩，在近期的币市行情中已落后于其它主流币种。

In addition to EOS, TRX and ADA, which are among the top three public-chain projects in the market value category ETH, recent high prices amount to only 37 per cent, 18.2 per cent and 8.7 per cent of historical peaks, respectively, and have lagged behind other mainstream currencies in recent currency market developments.

“ETH币价疲软的根本原因，是他们那一套逻辑在币圈不吃香了。”数字货币投资者张伟祺指出。

“The root cause of the weakness of the ETH currency is that their logic does not smell in the currency ring.” Digital money investors Jang Weiwei pointed out.

在他看来，作为币圈市值Top 2，比特币靠的是永不增发带来的稀缺性，有人将其视作储值工具；而以太坊画的大饼，则是一个前所未有的区块链生态——“全球计算机”。

In his view, the market value of Top 2 as a currency circle depended on the scarcity that would never increase, which was seen as a storage tool; the pie that was painted by Tai Tai was an unprecedented chain ecology — a “global computer”.

与比特币不同，以太坊不设发行总量，每年增发。其代币的定位，则是充当挖矿激励与DApp运行的“燃料”。“即便中本聪消失了，比特币仍然生生不息。而以太坊则需要V神不断提振投资者的信心。”张伟祺表示。

Unlike Bitcoin, which does not produce a total amount of circulation and increases it every year. Its proxy position is “fuel” that acts as an incentive to dig and run with Dapp. “Even if Chinabone disappears, Bitcoin is still alive.

作为第一代公链平台，以太坊是智能合约与DApp概念的提出者。以太坊的币价，也与其生态息息相关。然而，以太坊近期的技术进展与生态建设却鲜有亮点。其币价表现平平，也在意料之中。

As the first generation of public-chain platforms, Ether is the proponent of smart contracts and the Dapp concept. The price of Ether's currency is also closely related to its ecology. However, recent technological advances and ecological developments in Ether's work are rarely bright.

02?危机显现

{\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FFFF} The crisis's coming out.

疲软的币价表现，让以太坊面临的危机，充分暴露在外界面前。

Weak currency performance has exposed the crisis facing the Etherms to the outside world.

第一个危机，来自以太坊自身。

The first crisis came from Etheria itself.

如今的以太坊，已经完成了进入“宁静”阶段的最后一次硬分叉——“君士坦丁堡”。按计划，“宁静”阶段的以太坊，即将转向全面的PoS化。而在眼下的过渡期，如何权衡各方利益，并提升平台性能，成为了摆在以太坊团队面前的一道难题。

Today's Etheria has completed its last hard fork into the `silence' phase - Constantinople. As planned, the Ether phase is about to move towards full-scale PoSization. And, in the interim, how to balance the interests of all parties and enhance the platform's performance is a challenge for the Ether team.

本月13日，V神在以太坊论坛Ethresear.ch发布了一篇有试探意味的文章——《BCH：以太坊的短期数据可用层？》。在文章中，V神指出，BCH有大区块设计、低廉手续费与友好的社区环境，可以成为以太坊的“短期数据可用层”。

On the 13th of this month, God V published an exploratory article at the Ethresearch.ch Forum - BCH: Short-Term Data Available at Ether. In this article, God V states that BCH has large block designs, low fees and friendly community environments that can be the “short-term Data Available Level” at Ether.

所谓“短期数据可用层”，即指以太坊在实现其10M/s的远期目标前，先利用BCH的大区块容量，存储一部分以太坊平台的数据。而在未来，以太坊仍将会依靠自身力量实现数据的自主性。

The so-called “short-term data availability layer” refers to the use of BCH’s large block capacity to store some of the data from its platform before ETA achieves its 10M/s long-term goal. In the future, Ether will continue to rely on its own efforts to achieve data autonomy.

此前，V神曾在BCH（ABC）与BSV的分叉大战中力挺BCH（ABC），BCH社区应该也不会吝惜这一顺水人情。然而，V神的这一主张，仍然遭到了以太坊社区部分成员的批评。

Before that, the BCH (ABC) and the BSV fought against the BCH (ABC) and the BCH community should not have been mean to it. However, this claim of the V God is still criticized by some members of the Ethio community.

以太坊用户体验设计师avsa直言不讳地指出，V神的这一想法更像是个“不合时宜的愚人节玩笑”。而在许多海外社群，也有无数的投资者吐槽，以太坊作为最早、最主流的公链平台，如今竟沦落至需要“寄人篱下”的境地。

As the designer avsa pointed out, the idea of God V is more like an “untimely fool’s joke.” And in many overseas communities, there are countless investors who have slurped, using Taipan as the first and most mainstream public-chain platform, to the point where they need to be “sheltered.”

在性能上的焦虑，暴露出了以太坊的第二大危机——层出不穷的新兴公链，正在逐渐挤压以太坊的生存空间。

Performance anxiety has exposed the second-largest crisis in Etheria — emerging public chains that are gradually crushing the room for survival of Ether.

DAppReview数据显示，与新兴的EOS、波场等公链相比，以太坊在活跃用户数与交易笔数上已被碾压，交易额也不占优势。唯一能维持以太坊市场地位的，只剩下多年积累的DApp数量。

DAppReview data show that the number of active users and the number of transactional pens has been crushed and the amount of transactional value is not superior to that of emerging public chains such as EOS. The only thing that maintains the position in the market is the number of Dapps accumulated over the years.

ETH、EOS、TRON活跃用户、交易笔数、交易额、DApp数量对比（数据来源：DAppReview）

ETH, EOS, TRON active users, number of transactions, turnover, Dapp comparison (data source: DAppReview)

事实上，早在2018年，EOS、波场就在用户与交易数量上超越了以太坊。它们在性能上的优势也更加明显。秒级确认的特性，让这些公链平台受到了许多C端DApp，特别是博彩类DApp的青睐。而这些强势崛起的新公链，都对以太坊生态产生了冲击。

In fact, as early as 2018, the EOS, the wave, went beyond the Ether in terms of the number of users and transactions. Their performance advantages were also more pronounced. Second-level features, which made these public-chain platforms attractive to many C-end Dapps, especially the Gambling Dapps.

除此之外，以太坊面临的第三个危机，来自于整个公链行业的衰退。

In addition to this, the third crisis facing Tai Hwan comes from the recession of the entire public chain industry.

在以太坊之外，EOS、波场等公链平台已经通过牺牲一部分去中心化的手段，实现了相对较高的TPS。然而，在这些公链平台上，大多数DApp仍然是博彩类应用。“就像网络赌博不可能催生出BAT一样，博彩DApp也无法支撑其公链的未来。”某钱包从业者对一本区块链表示。

Outside of Etheria, public-chain platforms such as EOS, waves and others have achieved relatively high TPS by sacrificing part of it to be centralized. On these public-chain platforms, however, most Dapps are still in the game. “Just as cyber-gaming is not likely to give birth to BAT, they cannot support the future of their public-chains.” A wallet operator says a block chain.

在许多区块链从业者眼中，DApp经历多年发展，至今仍未出现现象级的C端产品，或足以改变行业的B端应用。因此，许多人不再看好DApp生态，而是认为公链的希望，在于新兴的DeFi（去中心化金融）行业。

In the eyes of many block chain operators, DApp has developed over the years and has so far failed to produce a phenomenon-based C-end product, or to alter the industry’s B-end applications. Thus, many people no longer look to the DApp ecology, but believe that the public chain’s hope lies in the emerging DeFi (decentralized finance) industry.

然而，眼下DeFi行业仍处于早期阶段，暂时难扛大旗。“DApp至少还是区块链玩家们‘自主创业’，而DeFi则需要区块链获得传统金融市场认可。”某TokenFund投资经理罗子昂对一本区块链表示。

However, the DeFi industry is still in its early stages, and it is difficult to carry the flag for the time being. “Dapps are at least “self-employed” of block-chain players, while DeFi needs a block-chain recognition in traditional financial markets.” A TokenFund investment manager, Rojam, said about a block-chain.

“在现在的区块链行业，与平台币、稳定币甚至挖矿这样的传统业务相比，公链都显得太不‘性感’了。”他说。

“In the current sector of block chains, public chains seem to be too `sexy' compared to traditional business such as platform currency, stable currency and even mining.” He said.

03?未来何在

What's the future?

币价惨淡、信仰崩塌、竞品崛起，以太坊未来将走向何方？

Where will the future of Etherno go when currency prices are low, faith collapses, competition rises?

按照以太坊的既定路线，它将在2020年全面转向PoS机制，并引入分片、零知识证明或侧链扩容协议，以实现性能与隐私性的大幅提升。

In accordance with the established course of the Etherm, it will be fully transferred to the PoS mechanism by 2020 and will introduce fragments, zero-knowledge certificates or side-strength augmentation agreements to achieve significant improvements in performance and privacy.

但在这些领域，包括EOS、波场甚至IOST在内的多种公链竞品，似乎走得更加靠前。在PoS机制、社区治理与Staking生态上，上述竞品都已经进行了一定探索。

But in these areas, a variety of public-chain competitions, including EOS, the waves, and even IIST, seem to have gone even further. These competitions have been explored in PoS mechanisms, community governance, and Staking Ecology.

在2018年10月的第四届以太坊开发者大会上（Devcon 4），V神曾经宣称，以太坊2.0的处理效率将比现有版本高出1000倍。

In October 2018, at the Fourth Ethan Developmenters Conference (Devcon 4), God V declared that the treatment of Ethio 2.0 would be 1,000 times more efficient than the current version.

“这将让以太坊成为真正的世界计算机，而不是像1999年的智能手机一样，只能勉强玩一下贪吃蛇。”他说。

“It's going to make Etherwood a real world computer, not just a little snake-eating, like a 1999 smartphone.” He said.

“1999年的智能手机”，是V神对现有以太坊版本的评价。事实上，目前的公链平台，也大多如此。

“Smartphone 1999” is a review by V God of the existing Ether version. In fact, the current public chain platform is mostly the same.

“现在，TokenFund早就不看公链项目了。”罗子昂指出。“逻辑很简单：大家都知道在2009年投资智能手机，会让自己成为先驱；而在1999年投资智能手机，则只能成为先烈。”

“Now, TokenFund has long been out of the public chain project.” Rojam pointed out, “The logic is simple: everyone knows that investing in smart phones in 2009 will make themselves pioneers; investing in smart phones in 1999 will only be the first.”

在他看来，尽管目前以比特币为代表的数字货币，仍处于价格上升周期，但区块链的“大繁荣”，仍未到来。

In his view, the “big boom” in the block chain had not yet arrived, although the digital currency currently represented by Bitcoin was still in a period of price escalation.

“从2017年下半年的大牛市中不难看出，整个行业真正的繁荣是百花齐放，而不是一枝独秀。”罗子昂表示，“一个可以量化的指标，是2017年牛市巅峰时，比特币在整个数字货币市场的市值占比仅为32%。而现在，这一数字高达65%。”

“It is not hard to see from the Bull City in the second half of 2017 that the real prosperity of the whole industry is the blooming of flowers rather than the performance of an extraordinary one.” Rojam said, “A quantifiable indicator is that, at the peak of the cattle market in 2017, Bitcoins represented only 32 per cent of the market value of the entire digital money market.” This figure is now as high as 65 per cent.” /b>

2017年至今，比特币在整个数字货币市场市值占比变化图（来源：CoinMarketCap）

From 2017 to date, the market value of Bitcoins in the overall digital currency market has changed (source: CoinMarketCap)

“从另一种视角来看，造成这一现象的原因，并不是比特币过于出众，而是币圈已经多年无币可投。”罗子昂指出。

“From another perspective, the reason for this phenomenon is not that bitcoin is too popular, but that currency circles have been uninputable for many years.” Rojam pointed out.

自2018年以来，链圈热点层出不穷，DApp、稳定币、分叉币、STO、跨链、DeFi等概念先后登场，却没能留下真正让人记忆深刻的典型案例。反而是挖矿、交易所等“传统产业”，以及击鼓传花、资金盘等骗局，反复成为圈内热议焦点。

Since 2018, the chain of hot spots have emerged, with the concepts of Dapp, stable currency, split currency, STO, cross-chain, DeFi, among others, appearing successively, without leaving a truly vivid example. Instead, the “traditional industries” of mining, exchanges, etc., and frauds such as stifling flowers, funds, etc., have repeatedly become the focus of discussion in the circle.

“但公链的时代也并未宣告结束。”罗子昂强调，“链圈的创新技术还是会先出现在公链平台上，在获得广泛验证后再落地于联盟链等更注重场景应用的平台。”

“But the era of the public chain has not yet come to an end.” Rochoon stressed that “Innovative technologies in the chain will appear first on the public chain platform and then, after extensive validation, on platforms that focus more on the application of the scene, such as the union chain.”

与此同时，公链行业的竞争，也将由拼噱头、拼运营，转向更加务实的拼架构、拼技术。“长远来看，这也是一件好事。”罗子昂说。

At the same time, competition in the public-chain industry will move from head-to-head, to more pragmatic architecture, to skill. “This is also a good thing in the long run.”

距离以太坊初版白皮书问世，已经过去了五年多。

More than five years have passed since the publication of the initial version of the White Paper of Ethio.

在此期间，以太坊的命运充满戏剧性：变革行业，引发轰动，价格攀至巅峰，随后技术开始停滞，一步步走向一蹶不振。

During this period, the fate of Ether was dramatic: changing the industry, triggering the boom, prices reached their peak, and technology began to stagnate and stagnate.

这样的发展轨迹，不禁让人扼腕叹息。

The trajectories of this kind are stifling.

以太坊还能再度崛起吗？没人能给出答案。

Is it possible that Etherom will rise again? No one can give the answer.

*文中部分受访者为化名。

* Some of the respondents in the text are aliases.